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Relying on Renewables Alone Significantly Inflates the Cost of Overhauling Energy (technologyreview.com) 248

A growing number of US cities and states have proposed or even passed legislation that would require producing all electricity from renewable energy sources like solar and wind within a few decades. That might sound like a great idea. But a growing body of evidence shows it's not. From a report: It increasingly appears that insisting on 100 percent renewable sources -- and disdaining others that don't produce greenhouse gases, such as nuclear power and fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technology -- is wastefully expensive and needlessly difficult. In the latest piece of evidence, a study published in Energy & Environmental Science determined that solar and wind energy alone could reliably meet about 80 percent of recent US annual electricity demand, but massive investments in energy storage and transmission would be needed to avoid major blackouts. Pushing to meet 100 percent of demand with these resources would require building a huge number of additional wind and solar farms -- or expanding electricity storage to an extent that would be prohibitively expensive at current prices. Or some of both.
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Relying on Renewables Alone Significantly Inflates the Cost of Overhauling Energy

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  • Long term (Score:5, Interesting)

    by peragrin ( 659227 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:17AM (#56194353)

    Renewables are always cheaper. The price of fuel for fossil fuels will go up. The price of decomishing a nuclear site will double again in the next 10 years.

    What makes renewables bad is that we don't have reliable storage.

    Long term is every home can cover 75% of their bas usage with solar and batteries then the need for large grid scale systems shrinks. The large grid is fragile and a mistake in Ohio, can wipe out new York City for 12 hours. (2003 blackout)

    More distributed renewables and smaller but numerous storage. Would strengthen the grid with excess.

    • Solar on every roof (Score:2, Interesting)

      by sjbe ( 173966 )

      What makes renewables bad is that we don't have reliable storage.

      We have reliable storage, or at least the technology to make it. Tesla and others have seen to that. What we don't have is cheap and plentiful storage. Part of that is because we haven't ramped up battery production to full scale and part of it is that we're still trying to reduce cost in the face of subsidized fossil fuels which makes clean options seem more expensive than they actually are.

      Long term is every home can cover 75% of their bas usage with solar and batteries then the need for large grid scale systems shrinks.

      Yes, exactly. Every rooftop that can have solar should have solar. It would make the grid more reliable, cleaner

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by doom ( 14564 )

        Every rooftop that can have solar should have solar.

        Possibly, but that maxes out at around 40 percent of our current electical power needs [arstechnica.com] (not including HVAC and transportation, even). So what else do we do?

        It would make the grid more reliable, cleaner, and eventually cheaper. It would require the grid to be upgraded in certain ways but that's not a bad thing. What we have now is rather outdated anyway. Yes we need batteries to do this but again, that's not a bad thing in the long run.

        I sincerely ho

        • by Shotgun ( 30919 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @02:48PM (#56195991)

          Every rooftop that can have solar should have solar.

          Possibly, but that maxes [arstechnica.com]
          out at around 40 percent of our current electical power
          needs (not including HVAC and transportation, even). So what else do we do?

          The second step is to cover the parking lot, especially where I work. As an added source of revenue, I would PAY to park my car in the shade of the panel.

    • Renewables are always cheaper. The price of fuel for fossil fuels will go up.

      People have been saying this (since forever [wikipedia.org]). On the rare occasion when you can get a proponent of the theory to commit themselves to a particular testable prediction about the real world, their track record [gizmodo.com] is quite dismal.

      Now, as a scientifically-minded person, if the proponents of a theory continue to make incorrect predications about the real world (or walk their predictions back saying 'next decade' for 50 years straight), at some point we have to conclude their theory is just not very good. This is th

  • by eggstasy ( 458692 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:18AM (#56194363) Journal

    Because some countries over here in Europe have already switched to renewables long ago, starting with hydro power for instance, wtf is this about solar and wind? Every major river has a dam. They are necessary for agriculture, not just electricity. And yeah some days per year we hit 100% renewable energy.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by GregMmm ( 5115215 )

      I live in the US, particularly Washington state, where most of our electricity is derived from hydro. It's used because it's readily available but it does have its side effects. Just like where I live solar is used with a diminished effect. (I live on the western side of the state with tall trees and cloud cover) If I lived in Arizona, I could bank a very good output of solar, but not so much on the hydro. Shouldn't this be the way we look at our energy? A combination of all power types would be good

      • "A combination of all power types would be good in the correct situations." - yes, that will happen.
        the argument gets polarised, the fossil supporters use the argument that the transition from fossil to renewable can't happen overnight so that means it won't work. e.g. what happens when the sun doesn't shone or the wind doesn't blow. They just don't realise it'll take years for renewables to become the major power source even though the pace seems to be getting faster and faster, they seem to forget how l
    • We have a lot of crazies here in the US, including many in Government who do not consider hydro as a renewable resource [governing.com]. Yes, water falling from the sky, tumbling down mountains, and flowing in rivers is NOT a renewable resource per a large segment of the "eco-centric" folks in the US. When you start off with that kind of position, it makes anything rational essentially impossible to achieve.
      • Hydro is renewable, but limited. "All the good sites are taken." Except Yosemite Valley, but that is (and should be) off limits.

        It's also dependent on the amount of rainfall you get, which isn't necessarily constant from year to year.

    • Hydro is great because it's not only a source of energy, but also a store. But not all countries are like Norway where they can reliably generate around 100% of their electricity by hydro. Most countries will find it hard implement hydro on a scale where they can use it to generate a significant portion of their power as well as have it serve as a store for other renewable energy.

      There's been a few plans floated here to dam a large lake and pump water in, or dam a portion of the North Sea and pump wate
  • by Khyber ( 864651 ) <techkitsune@gmail.com> on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:19AM (#56194373) Homepage Journal

    Gee, it's as if overhauling an infrastructure which was built predominantly on oil might cost a lot of money to retrofit to handle solar, wind, water, and nuclear!

    No fucking duh. However, once you've got the renewable energy sources in place and harvested, the cost will die out, quickly. It's called ROI, and the smart people have obtained almost insane ROI (on the order of 3 months in some related techs like LEDs powered by renewable resources up to 5 years for full solar+wind-powered farms) so they really don't have to worry about this.

    Which means Americans have this problem, and not many other people.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:34AM (#56194457) Homepage Journal

      TFA is nonsense anyway. The actual paper appears to be this one: http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content... [rsc.org]

      The abstract says:

      We analyze 36 years of global, hourly weather data (1980â"2015) to quantify the covariability of solar and wind resources as a function of time and location, over multi-decadal time scales and up to continental length scales. Assuming minimal excess generation, lossless transmission, and no other generation sources, the analysis indicates that wind-heavy or solar-heavy U.S.-scale power generation portfolios could in principle provide â¼80% of recent total annual U.S. electricity demand. However, to reliably meet 100% of total annual electricity demand, seasonal cycles and unpredictable weather events require several weeksâ(TM) worth of energy storage and/or the installation of much more capacity of solar and wind power than is routinely necessary to meet peak demand. To obtain â¼80% reliability, solar-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require sufficient energy storage to overcome the daily solar cycle, whereas wind-heavy wind/solar generation mixes require continental-scale transmission to exploit the geographic diversity of wind. Policy and planning aimed at providing a reliable electricity supply must therefore rigorously consider constraints associated with the geophysical variability of the solar and wind resourceâ"even over continental scales.

      Which contradicts what is said in the summary and TFA. In fact it seems like the author of TFA is illiterate and can't understand clear, simple English statements.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by doom ( 14564 )

        Actually, I don't see any contradiction at all, and you skipped various other links in this piece such as: Deep Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector [innovationreform.org] from March 2017

        In addition, there is strong agreement in the literature that a diversified mix of low-CO2 generation resources offers the best chance of affordably achieving deep decarbonization. While it is theoretically possible to rely primarily (or even entirely) on variable renewable energy resources such as wind and solar, it would be significa

        • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @01:25PM (#56195325) Homepage Journal

          TFA first states that

          Pushing to meet 100 percent of demand with these resources would require building a huge number of additional wind and solar farmsâ"or expanding electricity storage to an extent that would be prohibitively expensive at current prices. Or some of both.

          Translation: it gets expensive if you do it the stupidest possible way.

          It then doubles down on the stupid by investigating the stupid way in more depth:

          Just getting to 80 percent of demand reliably with only wind and solar would require either a US-wide high-speed transmission system or 12 hours of electricity storage. A storage system of that size across the US would cost more than $2.5 trillion for a battery system.

          Yeah, a giant battery would be expensive, but fortunately you already gave us the solution and Europe has demonstrated that it works just fine. But nah, let's ignore that because look, $2,500,000,000,000 battery!

          The summary is even worse, leaving out the obvious, tried and tested solution completely and instead trying to give the impression that it's just really really expensive and there is no alternative except non-renewable sources.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Solandri ( 704621 )
        There is no contradiction. This is the standard 80/20 rule of thumb in engineering [wikipedia.org]. Designing to achieve 80% utilization is easy and cheap. Designing to achieve the remaining 20% is hard and ridiculously expensive, and usually not worth it. All TFA and the paper do is confirm that this rule also applies to renewables.
    • However, once you've got the renewable energy sources in place and harvested, the cost will die out, quickly. It's called ROI, and the smart people have obtained almost insane ROI (on the order of 3 months in some related techs like LEDs powered by renewable resources up to 5 years for full solar+wind-powered farms) so they really don't have to worry about this.

      Obviously you have no idea what you're talking about, since all returns must happen by the end of the next quarter.

  • by sjbe ( 173966 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:27AM (#56194417)

    I'm about as much of a greenie as you are likely to run across. I'm strongly of the opinion that we cannot get solar and wind power to be major parts of the grid fast enough. We also need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels (which we do globally to the tune of about $5 Trillion annually) and force them to cost the full economic value of the pollution they cause. That said, the notion that we can rely solely on wind and solar (and hydro where available) in the near future is preposterous. Doing that in a rational way would take a century just due to the cost alone. Fossil fuels simply aren't going away for many decades at minimum no matter what. Fortunately we don't need to get carbon emitting energy sources to zero. We need to get them to a level that the ecosystem can handle which is obviously much lower than it is today. Use nuclear to replace fossil fuels where possible and solar and wind for most of the rest. Yes we will need batteries too. The grid WILL need to be updated no matter what so I don't see that as a bad thing. But if we need to spend the money to keep the planet habitable then no real benefit to waiting.

    One beef with the summary is that there currently is no such thing as fossil fuels with carbon capture technology. There is NO industrial scale carbon capture or carbon sequestration technology available nor any reasonable prospect of such technology in the near future. So take that off the table as an option until such time as it becomes a real thing.

    • by doom ( 14564 )

      We also need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels (which we do globally to the tune of about $5 Trillion annually) and force them to cost the full economic value of the pollution they cause.

      There you have it. That's step one for any kind of green energy future, nuclear or not. It's the one thing you'd think we should all agree on and be pushing for.

      Instead the renewables-enthusiasts are telling themselves solar is going to take off like cellphones if only they can cheer for it loudly enough.

    • by doom ( 14564 )

      One beef with the summary is that there currently is no such thing as fossil fuels with carbon capture technology.

      True, it remains a speculative, experimental idea, and myself I don't hold out much hope that it's workable.

      Nevertheless, the policy recommendations of the last IPCC report recommend trying to develop CCS (along with wind, solar and nuclear)-- they make the point that if we did get it working, burning biomass would go from a carbon-neutral power source to a carbon absorbing power source.

    • One beef with the summary is that there currently is no such thing as fossil fuels with carbon capture technology. There is NO industrial scale carbon capture or carbon sequestration technology available nor any reasonable prospect of such technology in the near future. So take that off the table as an option until such time as it becomes a real thing.

      True, but since it is only needed to cover that last 20%, when we are already have 80% wind and solar, it is not needed now. We are currently at 15%, and at a reasonable 4.5% annual growth rate in production we will get to 80% in about 40 years. We can cut it to about 30 years at 6% a year, but in any case we are few decades off of needing this technology to be ready.

      It is normal for a technology that is not yet needed not to be already deployed.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:31AM (#56194445)
    aka "Clean Coal" [google.com]. There's a reason there hasn't been much traction here. Yes, you can make a zero emission coal or gas fired plant. It's just not economical when compared to wind & solar.

    The costs get inflated only if you ignore cost externalization (subsidies for one, but medical costs due to dirty air are pretty massive too). Nuclear would be fine if we could trust it to stay safe. But until you can convince Americans to stop privatizing everything or make a nuke plant that's cheaper to run safely than to run dangerously then nuke's a non-starter. Sooner or later we'll privatize it to save money and those savings will come at the cost of safety like they did over in Fukushima. Meanwhile the folks responsible for the inevitable disaster get off scott free.
    • Agreed, and even their premise that nuclear is carbon free is flawed. Nuclear plants take a ridiculous amount of concrete to make, and concrete production is one of our most CO2 intensive activities. Uranium mining, refining, and transport is also very carbon heavy. Net energy production compared to fossil fuel use? Definitely much less carbon intensive, but it's not zero by a long shot.

      • Definitely much less carbon intensive, but it's not zero by a long shot.

        Nuclear power is as close to zero emissions as solar, wind, and hydro.

        Nuclear: 28 tonnes CO2/GWh
        Wind: 26
        Hydro: 26
        Solar PV: 85

        I'm not a fan of solar PV because it produces three times the CO2 per energy produced than wind, hydro, or nuclear. Solar is also expensive, and unreliable. Still far better than natural gas at 500 tonnes of CO2/GWh, or coal which can vary from 700 to over 1000 depending on the coal quality and the plant efficiency. Using solar when better options exist is nonsensical.

        I see nothing

    • Yes, you can make a zero emission coal or gas fired plant.

      Multiple companies have tried, and all have so far failed. Clean coal was pushed in Europe long before the orange monkey ran for president. Currently most of the projects are being sued by their respective states for reimbursement of the government incentives that often failed to produce even a single kg of sequestered carbon.

      Coal is dying, clean coal on the other hand has gone through multiple stillbirths and abortions.

  • by aaarrrgggh ( 9205 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:31AM (#56194449)

    The demand curve is really the important part of the equation; to make renewables effective you really need to minimize load when the sources are not available. That is a challenge with current technology in the winter, because you intrinsically have a large demand block between sunset and 9PM. In the summer you can have plenty of excess capacity from PV, but hot late-autumn days are a challenge.

    So, what can you do?

    • EV Charging at the workplace
    • Reduce office building ventilation rates from sunset to 9PM
    • Chilled water/ice storage with heat recovery chillers running during the day
    • Reduce traditional "peak period" rates and increase "mid-peak" rates to better reflect the (net) demand curve
    • Better insulate buildings to reduce winter heating energy
    • Program dishwashers, dryers, hot water heaters to take advantage of excess capacity
    • Reduce site lighting levels, especially after close of business
    • ...

    It isn't that hard to make things work on renewables only if you have plenty of wind energy, but you need to reduce expectations of central grid reliability. Inter-connected microgrids have a lot of promise for being the prime source of end-user reliability and economic viability.

    And, if you don't have the wind resources and have high heat and electric loads in the winter, what the hell... put in some gas recip engines with district heating.

    • You seem to be assuming that there is never a need to run the A/C 24-7. Which is normal about seven months of the year down here in N'Awlins. Lows above 27C at night, highs above 35C in daylight. Every day except winter....

      • At 27C at night my AC would ne off, and most likely at 35C during daytime, too.
        Can't be so hard to have a building that stays around 27C - 30C without need for AC.

      • just how well are your properties insulated? a well insulated property shouldn't have much temperature fluctuation whether that be heat or cold.
      • Not at all; you just need to build a thermal mass during the daylight hours and discharge it at night. It can be passive like a stone fireplace and floor, or an active system such as an ice tank. Your primary obstacles are humidity control and solar heat gain, which can generally be done with a separate dehumidifier (assuming you are using radiant surfaces), and a proper radiant barrier and overhangs.

        You can also gain thermal efficiency by using a ground-source heat pump to provide the cooling, so you don

    • by swb ( 14022 )

      Once the grid gets stingy and/or unreliable, people/corps with resources will just start abandoning it in favor of their own local capacity. They won't be told they can't have air conditioning.

      "Managing the grid" will just boil down to middle class and lower classes being blacked out because they don't have their own power sources or can't afford super-peak rates.

      I predict the desire to enforce conservation (blackouts, brownouts, high cost rates) to meet renewable power goals will be a major political issu

      • There is an economic benefit to being connected to the grid-- most of the time. It gives you a marketplace to sell your excess capacity, and a buffer for instantaneous peaks.

        While I am not a fan of real-time pricing, it can effectively compensate or incentivize good behavior.

        Pretend a company could year-round exactly match their load to the real-time output of their solar panels. That means they need to have more people working in the summer than winter, and need to operate 365 days per year-- with much s

  • "fossil-fuel plants with carbon-capture technology"

    Which plants like that have been built or are in operation?
    How efficient are they? I've heard of one project where CCS consumed ~25% of total plant power.
    Coalwashing may soon put greenwashing to shame.

  • by Garth Dahlstrom ( 5166915 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:42AM (#56194507)
    The thing is renewals may be more expensive up front but that because they represent the true cost of producing the energy, not because they are a bad idea!

    The alternatives are just kicking-the-can-down-the-road... How much will it cost to retrofit or decommission that nuclear plant in 15 or 20 years? How much will it cost to get the carbon out of the atmosphere after it messes up our weather to the point where the growing season is unstable and it's hard to grow crops reliably?

    There's an old saying... You can pay now or you can pay later, but it usually costs more later.

    • by doom ( 14564 )

      The thing is renewals may be more expensive up front but that because they represent the true cost of producing the energy ...

      Funny, I was thinking the same thing about nuclear power.

      And no one actually does a very good job of making sure the price of photovaltaics pays for the environmental damage done in manufacturing them (let alone of disposing of them).

      • Disposing PV panels does no environmentsl damage.
        They are mostly glass amd the metal is recycled, or would you throw away metal that you don't have to refine but can just melt?
        Production has no real environmental damage either. The dirty chemicals are recycled and reused and the raw materials are basically: sand.

        • by doom ( 14564 )

          sand

          Even if you're using purely silicon solar cells, you still need to refine the oxide and grow the crystals, the electrical leads are made of metal, and in general manufacturing any sort of thin-film electronics involves using some pretty crazy solvents (look up "hydrofluoric acid" some time) and if you're going to crank out enough PV cells fast enough to make a dent in global warming you're talking about doing this at a phenomenal scale, larger than anything ever done for IT gadgets.

          You're completely m

          • All the stuf you consider hazzardouse stays in the plant.
            So ... what was your point?

            And silicon PV cells are not thin film PV cells.

            Get a clue about the topic or stay out of it.

  • by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:42AM (#56194509)

    "that would be prohibitively expensive at current prices."

    That's one of the good things of 'the future'. I doesn't have to pay 'current' prices.
    Also, wind energy doesn't need any subsidies anymore, unlike coal, gas, oil and nukes.

  • Pure FUD. The writer (in the summary) lost all credibility when he said carbon capture tech is needed because current battery prices are too high. Funny thing, though, that renewables and batteries are already cheap enough to drive fossil plants out of business. Carbon capture is important, yes, but we need it to drive our emissions *negative* in the second half of this century. To get to net zero in the first half of the century, demolishing smokestacks is the fastest way.
    • by doom ( 14564 )

      robot256 wrote:

      Pure FUD. The writer (in the summary) lost all credibility when he said carbon capture tech is needed because current battery prices are too high.

      The author did not actually say that (and I just lost all respect for you, and to tell you the truth I didn't care who you have respect for to start with). Here it is again:

      It increasingly appears that insisting on 100 percent renewable sources-- and disdaining others that don't produce greenhouse gases, such as nuclear power and fossil-fuel pla

  • by Impy the Impiuos Imp ( 442658 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:44AM (#56194537) Journal

    The need for renewable is a separate issue from the need for green energy.

    The former is about the running out of fossil fuels, and the latter, pollution, and, specifically, greenhouse gases.

    The latter has value, but the former not so much anymore as Julian Simon's undefeated predictive capability [juliansimon.com] has shown a relatively free economic society can adapt to shortage stressors faster then they become the prognosticated problem, and prices continue to drop.

    This is counter-intuitive, but makes successful predictions again and again and again since the shortage scares of the 1970s. Peak Oil, a reskin of such fears, predictably fell.

  • by FeelGood314 ( 2516288 ) on Tuesday February 27, 2018 @11:59AM (#56194667)
    Coal should have died in the 60s but groups like Green Peace saved it by driving the cost of nuclear through the roof. 60s nuclear technology was safe, we even knew how to safely dispose of waste in the 60s. We couldn't dispose of it with zero radiation leak but guess what the world is mildly radio active anyway and coal, that thing that replace nuclear, spreads radio active material more than nuclear does.

    Ten years ago we solved a lot of the problems with renewables, it was called variable pricing for electricity. People and their appliances can be incentivized to use electricity when it is produced by changing less when the wind blows or the sun is shinning and charging over $0.70/kwh when it isn't. This saved consumers money and saved the utilities even more. Unfortunately the utilities that took a risk and tried this got fucked over by their public utility commissions. (Oklahoma public utility commission almost single handedly set back renewable energy by 5 years)

    Last it will never make sense for urban homes to have battery back up. It is always better to share your capacity among several houses, or several thousand houses. Like maybe make it a public utility to store and deliver electricity

    Also get white roof shingles!!!

    These are all easy things, things that could have already done with a little leadership and maybe getting some of these Green groups to actually think instead of parade around trying to get attention for themselves.

    Lastly fuck the pro-rail crude oil transportation advocates. They often go by the anti pipeline crusade.
    • .. charging less when the wind blows or the sun is shining and charging over $0.70/kwh when it isn't.... it will never make sense for urban homes to have battery back up.

      You might have just disproved your own point. Under a plan that would allow me to buy electricity for $0.12/kwh (the current national average) on-peak vs $0.70/kwh off-peak, I could very quickly pay for a powerwall just to shift my demand.

      Also get white roof shingles!!!

      Ventilation plays a much bigger factor than shingle color. Since I spend much more to heat than cool my house, in my part of the country black makes more sense. Too bad it costs so much to repaint the roof twice per year for optimal efficiency.

    • Since the late 1970s exhaust of coal plants are scrubbed. So they exhaust no radioactivvity at all.
      Amd we basically nevver knew how to dispose of nuclear waste from nuclesr plants. But if you know a way, publish it and farm in a Nobel Prize.

      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        So, after coal plant exhaust is scrubbed, what is done with all that fly ash? The radioactivity that coal plants used to emit is all in the coal ash.

        We do know how to dispose of waste from nuclear plants. The omni-obstructionists just will not permit it. They want the waste to stay right where it is, in cooling ponds a nuclear power plants, where they can get filmed for the evening news wringing their hands over it and wailing "The horror, oooo, the horror!"

        As for a disposal site, go to Google Earth and

    • Also get white roof shingles!!!

      Sure if you want to royally piss of the neighbours. Better still get black roof shingles that double as solar panels.

  • This is the study I have been looking/waiting for that gives a realistic assessment of what the future power grid for North America (and Eurasia) should look like.

    The summary cites the two different options for dealing with the intermittent nature of wind and solar -- power storage (which is the go-to assumption everyone makes as the only option), and having a low loss national power grid to distribute power efficiently, but inevitably it only cites the cost of the more expensive of the two -- power storage

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