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Earth United States Science

Alaska's Permafrost Is Thawing (cnbc.com) 324

Henry Fountain reports via The New York Times (Warning: source may be paywalled; alternative source): The Arctic is warming about twice as fast as other parts of the planet, and even here in sub-Arctic Alaska the rate of warming is high. Sea ice and wildlife habitat are disappearing; higher sea levels threaten coastal native villages. But to the scientists from Woods Hole Research Center who have come here to study the effects of climate change, the most urgent is the fate of permafrost, the always-frozen ground that underlies much of the state. Starting just a few feet below the surface and extending tens or even hundreds of feet down, it contains vast amounts of carbon in organic matter -- plants that took carbon dioxide from the atmosphere centuries ago, died and froze before they could decompose. Worldwide, permafrost is thought to contain about twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere. Once this ancient organic material thaws, microbes convert some of it to carbon dioxide and methane, which can flow into the atmosphere and cause even more warming. Scientists have estimated that the process of permafrost thawing could contribute as much as 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit to global warming over the next several centuries, independent of what society does to reduce emissions from burning fossil fuels and other activities. In Alaska, nowhere is permafrost more vulnerable than here, 350 miles south of the Arctic Circle, in a vast, largely treeless landscape formed from sediment brought down by two of the state's biggest rivers, the Yukon and the Kuskokwim. Temperatures three feet down into the frozen ground are less than half a degree below freezing. This area could lose much of its permafrost by midcentury.
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Alaska's Permafrost Is Thawing

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  • by ClickOnThis ( 137803 ) on Friday August 25, 2017 @11:33PM (#55087925) Journal

    Time to plant trees. Lots of trees.

    • You could cover the entire planet surface with trees and it still wouldn't be enough. It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

      • by ClickOnThis ( 137803 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @12:30AM (#55088095) Journal

        You could cover the entire planet surface with trees and it still wouldn't be enough. It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

        Okay. But until we have such machines, the most readily available carbon-sink, cost-effective and easily deployed with unskilled labour, is the tree.

        • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @02:55AM (#55088383)

          But until we have such machines...

          Actually, we have already invented the machines we need to capture CO2. We have the machines we need, we just need to build them.

          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

            Actually, we have already invented the machines we need to capture CO2. We have the machines we need, we just need to build them.

            And power them. That's going to remain a sticking point unless and until we have fusion.

            • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @04:24AM (#55088537)

              And power them. That's going to remain a sticking point unless and until we have fusion.

              We have plenty of power from the sun and the wind, dummy. Worst case scenario, we power them with nuclear.

              • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

                by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

                If we have plenty of solar and wind energy, then why are we still burning fossil fuels and amplifying the problem in the first place?

                • If we have plenty of solar and wind energy, then why are we still burning fossil fuels and amplifying the problem in the first place?

                  Because we aren't taxing polluters to clean up their pollution. Change that and everyone will be switching power sources ASAP.

              • Worst case scenario, we power them with nuclear.

                That pretty much is the worst case. It also makes zero sense because wind is cheaper.

            • Such a device could plausibly use solar heat. Build it in Nevada or something. There's more than enough desert there.
            • Well, until we have fission, at any rate. If you're anti-fission now, what makes you think you'll be pro-fusion when it is possible? You'll just have some other thing that we need to shoot for that conveniently lets fossil fuel companies keep operating "in the meantime" as always.

              • by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

                We're using our fission power. Even if it's scaled up as rapidly as can be done with reasonable safety margins, demand will expand to use it all -- not that this is a bad thing, as many problems (like fossil fueled vehicles, and the shortage of fresh water) can be solved. I'm definitely not anti-fission and don't see why you think I would be. It's just that the sheer quantity of power available from fusion will mean no longer having to choose which power-intensive needs top the list: making fertilizer for f

        • Okay. But until we have such machines, the most readily available carbon-sink, cost-effective and easily deployed with unskilled labour, is the tree.

          That depends on where it's going. If the area is very dry, it won't support trees. You have to work your way up from scrub, kudzu, something hardy like that. If it is moist, bamboo is better. It grows biomass faster than trees, and there are several varieties useful as building materials. Cutting the bamboo down and building stuff out of it means carbon sequestration, just like trees except faster.

        • by hey! ( 33014 )

          Well, there actually are other geoengineering possibilities. One proposal is fertilizing the Antarctic Oceans with iron to generate massive algal blooms. The problem with that is that it has *other* consequences, like destroying the ecosystem in the part of the ocean where you do it. But the big advantage is that it's cheap, and it'd probably work, at the costs of turning large swathes of the oceans into toxic muck.

          While planting an individual tree isn't expensive, planting enough trees to offset human ca

        • You could cover the entire planet surface with trees and it still wouldn't be enough. It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

          Okay. But until we have such machines, the most readily available carbon-sink, cost-effective and easily deployed with unskilled labour, is the tree.

          Or you could attack the alleged problem - heat - directly.

          Orbital sunshades can give you as much cooling as you want. But that's pretty high tech (thou

        • Time to plant trees. Lots of trees.

          You could cover the entire planet surface with trees and it still wouldn't be enough. It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

          Okay. But until we have such machines, the most readily available carbon-sink, cost-effective and easily deployed with unskilled labour, is the tree.

          OK, let's calculate. Here's a source talking about CO2 absorption by trees: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new... [telegraph.co.uk] , and here's a source saying "A tree can absorb as much as 48 pounds of carbon dioxide per year and can sequester 1 ton of carbon dioxide by the time it reaches 40 years old.": https://projects.ncsu.edu/proj... [ncsu.edu]

          This one says that trees absorb 40% of the 28 billion tons of carbon dioxide emitted per year: World's forests absorb almost 40 per cent of man made CO2 [telegraph.co.uk]

          If we take just that last figure, it'

      • by Jeremi ( 14640 )

        It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

        Cool, but then you have to figure out how to power those machines. Presumably you'd need to use renewable (or at least nuclear) power for them, since otherwise they'd be putting more CO2 into the air, likely at a faster rate than they were taking it out of the air. How much power would such a machine require to remove a given amount of CO2? Are we currently capable of creating a CO2-removing machine that is more power-efficient than a tree? I have my doubts about that.

        • by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @02:51AM (#55088375)

          Cool, but then you have to figure out how to power those machines.

          Solar and wind. This isn't rocket science.

          Are we currently capable of creating a CO2-removing machine that is more power-efficient than a tree?

          Trees don't permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere. If they did then there wouldn't be any CO2 for them. Also, please don't argue that animals are supplying the CO2 they need because animal-life is a recent development compared to plant-life.

          What we have done is removed a fuckload of buried carbon and propelled it into the atmosphere. If we wanted to involve trees, it would be planting a huge amount of trees, uprooting them at their prime and then burying them deep underground. The better option is to use machines to capture CO2 and then use chemistry to split it into carbon and oxygen. We can make various things with these but the most space efficient would be to make diamonds and release the oxygen. Considering we've released over a trillion tons of CO2 in the atmosphere, space should be a consideration.

          • We can make various things with these but the most space efficient would be to make diamonds and release the oxygen.

            ...what? We have the ability to make gigatonnes of diamonds every year? Why has nobody told me?

          • Trees don't permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere. If they did then there wouldn't be any CO2 for them.

            A portion of the carbon that trees remove from the atmosphere is sequestered. That's a simple fact. Even in the rain forest, that's true. However, it's most true in evergreen forests, because the rate of falls determines (in part) whether decomposition is aerobic or not, and aerobic decomposition releases less of the stored carbon, returning more of it to the soil.

          • Trees don't permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere. .

            Depends what happens to the leaves when they fall and the wood when the tree dies. If if gets locked up in peat bogs or permafrost (or eventually oil or coal) you are fine. If it burns or decays, not so good. I haven't done the sums, but I suspect growing plants (I can quite believe that bamboo or something is better than trees) harvesting them and dumping them into old oil wells or coal mines, or somewhere else where they won't decay for a few millenia (what happens to woodchip in deep ocean sediment (as

        • by Barsteward ( 969998 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @04:15AM (#55088515)
          Here is a possibility as a start https://www.fastcompany.com/40... [fastcompany.com]
      • by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @04:51AM (#55088587)

        It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

        A better first step would be to turn off the machines that actively add carbon to the air.

        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          by Anonymous Coward

          That's like turning off the life support before the patient can breathe on their own.

          Also, YOU are a machine that actively adds carbon into the air. So turn yourself off first.

          • Also, YOU are a machine that actively adds carbon into the air. So turn yourself off first.

            No, I need to be around to say "I told you so".

        • A better first step would be to turn off the machines that actively add carbon to the air.

          So, you are gonna close your mouth hole? You are a carbon exhaust machine, maroon.

        • A better first step would be to turn off the machines that actively add carbon to the air.

          That would be ideal but we have to work within government capabilities without authoritarian rule. The better first step would be to add a pollution tax. It would be onerous enough that non-polluting solutions would become the more desirable solutions from a financial standpoint. The taxes should be used to help clean up the pollution and subsidize solutions for the poor (because they cannot afford the initial investment needed).

      • by amiga3D ( 567632 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @06:18AM (#55088707)

        It's time to start preparing for the inevitable warming of the planet. We've got some time but I'd start by banning any new construction in Florida and other low lying areas. Even by the most optimistic view the Paris Accords aren't going to do much, if any, good. It'll keep warming gradually for decades.

        • I'd start by just not providing government-funded flood insurnace in coastal areas known to have a high risk of flooding. If you want to build there, fine, but you insure your own shit or live with the cost of losing your property in the next big storm. We shouldn't have been subsidizing stupid real estate decisions like that all along.

      • It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

        You mean the machines also known as "trees"?

        • It's time to start using technology to produce billions of machines that actively and permanently remove carbon from the air.

          You mean the machines also known as "trees"?

          Trees are great things to have around the place. I'll always support planting them, and enjoy them. But at best, they are carbon neutral. Any carbon they might pull from the atmosphere is temporarily stored, then released back to the atmosphere after they die and decay. We might think of the standard rotting process as extreme slow burning, and some of the more wet decays as methane production.

          Probably the best approach is to attempt to slow releasing of sequestered carbon from ages past, and call it a

          • But at best, they are carbon neutral. Any carbon they might pull from the atmosphere is temporarily stored, then released back to the atmosphere after they die and decay.

            Not if you take measures to prevent their decay after they die.

            After all, that's how all this carbon got into the ground in the first place, so it's obviously not impossible.

          • But at best, they are carbon neutral. Any carbon they might pull from the atmosphere is temporarily stored, then released back to the atmosphere after they die and decay.

            Make biochar. You 1) sequester carbon and 2) improve agriculture. It's a win-win.

        • You mean the machines also known as "trees"?

          No.

    • There is so much wasted space pointing upward, that could be used for solar energy collection or improved tree growth.

      Cities have many square miles of ugly black tar roofs that could be collecting solar energy. They are fields that are laying fallow that could be reforested.

      These are not things that are impossible for even modest governments, but we are lacking global leadership who is willing to say they will fund these projects and attack the problem on many angles.

      Do you want to get Republicans involved

      • Do you want to get Republicans involved. Well stop calling them uneducated hicks, start explaining how solar energy is a good way to be independent of these government controlled power plants and where you are responsible for your own energy.

        I love how you make this attempt to say that non-republicans are causing republicans to rebel because non-republicans are so mean.

        That is like arguing that you can get someone to kill themselves by telling them they are stupid, and that gravity is real, so they say No it isn't, and then jump off a cliff because you contradicted them.

        You are going to have to explain why an apparent fatal flaw is a good thing, because your concept is a perfect way to take advantage of people. Regardless I've been called a

  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 26, 2017 @12:03AM (#55088019)

    Every generation is phenomenally stupid about something that should be blindingly obvious.

    The fact that we've dominated the environment to the degree we have should be obvious - we've gone from 2% of the land mammal biomass to 98% when you include our livestock.

    We have evidence of multiple mass extinctions caused by exactly these same events:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    I agree with the thought that some of the established concepts can have some bullshit in it - but that's exactly why we need repeatable research done and confirmed, and USED TO IMPROVE THINGS before we basically repeat history and ruin the planet for millions of years again.

    The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

    • Unstable equilibrium (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Okian Warrior ( 537106 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @01:06AM (#55088179) Homepage Journal

      Every generation is phenomenally stupid about something that should be blindingly obvious.

      The fact that we've dominated the environment to the degree we have should be obvious - we've gone from 2% of the land mammal biomass to 98% when you include our livestock.

      We have evidence of multiple mass extinctions caused by exactly these same events:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      I agree with the thought that some of the established concepts can have some bullshit in it - but that's exactly why we need repeatable research done and confirmed, and USED TO IMPROVE THINGS before we basically repeat history and ruin the planet for millions of years again.

      The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

      Every generation is phenomenally stupid about something that should be blindingly obvious.

      The fact that we've dominated the environment to the degree we have should be obvious - we've gone from 2% of the land mammal biomass to 98% when you include our livestock.

      We have evidence of multiple mass extinctions caused by exactly these same events:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      I agree with the thought that some of the established concepts can have some bullshit in it - but that's exactly why we need repeatable research done and confirmed, and USED TO IMPROVE THINGS before we basically repeat history and ruin the planet for millions of years again.

      The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

      It sounds like the permafrost melting thing is an unstable equilibrium: the more it melts, the more carbon and methane goes into the atmosphere, the warmer it gets, and the more it melts.

      So, here's my question: if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?

      It would only take a degree or two of variation to trigger the runaway event, but that's never happened due to variations in sun activity?

      The Trump move to eliminate climate research, and to silence researchers is more than the normal level of stupid.

      Every morning I read Breitbart first, then MSM (via Google News). Breitbart to find out what happened, and MSM to find out why it was Trump's fault.

      • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 26, 2017 @01:37AM (#55088231)

        "why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?"

        End Permian, 251 million years ago, 96% of species lost

        Known as “the great dying”, this was by far the worst extinction event ever seen; it nearly ended life on Earth. The tabulate corals were lost in this period – today’s corals are an entirely different group. What caused it? A perfect storm of natural catastrophes. A cataclysmic eruption near Siberia blasted CO2 into the atmosphere. Methanogenic bacteria responded by belching out methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Global temperatures surged while oceans acidified and stagnated, belching poisonous hydrogen sulfide. It set life back 300 million years.

      • by quantaman ( 517394 ) on Saturday August 26, 2017 @02:03AM (#55088291)

        It sounds like the permafrost melting thing is an unstable equilibrium: the more it melts, the more carbon and methane goes into the atmosphere, the warmer it gets, and the more it melts.

        So, here's my question: if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?

        Why doesn't any positive feedback react that way? If I have a single beer that triggers a positive feedback loop where I want another beer, but it doesn't end up with me dead of alcohol poisoning, it ends up with me drunk and deciding I've had enough. An avalanche is another positive feedback, a single snowball might not do anything, but once there's enough sliding snow it starts to trigger more snow to slide.

        But the result isn't snow sliding to the centre of the earth, the positive feedback of sliding snow gives out as the snow reaches the bottom of the mountain.

        Global warming feedbacks aren't fundamentally different, positive feedbacks diminish in effectiveness as the system moves in their direction [skepticalscience.com]. The positive feedbacks of global warming are like two meta-stable states of the snow, top of the mountain and bottom of the mountain. Just like we went from an ice age to a modern climate, we're on our way from a modern climate to global warming. And that climate won't be stable either, eventually something else will happen, another set of positive feedback will kick in, and the earth will move to yet another equilibrium.

        It would only take a degree or two of variation to trigger the runaway event, but that's never happened due to variations in sun activity?

        I don't know how typical it is for the sun to cause a crazy hot year, but one really hot year doesn't do much. The permafrost doesn't melt in one hot year, it takes a lot of hot years in a row.

        Every morning I read Breitbart first, then MSM (via Google News). Breitbart to find out what happened, and MSM to find out why it was Trump's fault.

        I read a lot of MSM and Trump's administration has gone more or less how I expected, as has the climate over the past couple decades.

        Somehow I suspect you end up being either surprised the state of reality a lot more often than I do.

        • by HiThere ( 15173 )

          Unfortunately, this isn't really certain. Venus started off not that different from Earth. And the sun has warmed over time.

          The real truth is that we don't *KNOW* that we won't set off a run-away greenhouse effect which doesn't end up with the oceans boiling off into space (slowly, admittedly, but water vapor in the ionosphere tends to loose hydrogen under the influence of solar ultraviolet). We tend to *believe* that this won't happen, but our models aren't good enough to prove this outside of the range

      • So, here's my question: if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?

        Well here is the thing, there have been runaways like that, in both directions and quite a few of them. There have been both snowball earth periods and periods with tropics at the poles. Cooling is also an runaway process, more snow means higher albedo means less heat means more snow. In fact if you look at temperatures over geological timescales then Earths climate tends to spend most of the time in one extreme or another. Current global temperatures are rather anomalous, because they are somewhere in the

      • It sounds like the permafrost melting thing is an unstable equilibrium: the more it melts, the more carbon and methane goes into the atmosphere, the warmer it gets, and the more it melts.

        So, here's my question: if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?

        Because there isn't an unlimited amount of CO2. methane, and the other so-called greenhouses. There have been times in the past when the CO2 levels were much higher, and the temperatures were higher as well. enough to more than compensate for the dimmer sun of the period.

        So if all of the sequestered Methane was released, it would suck up energy, and given that it is a much stronger greenhouse gas, would affect temperatures quite a bit. It does dissipate more quickly than CO2, so it would not affect temps

      • "if we are sitting on an unstable equilibrium like that, why hasn't there been runaway carbon dioxide warming in the past?"

        There has been. We didn't exist yet so we didn't care. The carbon was sequestered by trees. It turned into oil and we burned it and now it isn't sequestered.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      They think they want good government and justice for all, Vimes, yet what is it they really crave, deep in their hearts? Only that things go on as normal and tomorrow is pretty much like today.

      -- The Patrician of Ankh-Morpork, Feet of Clay, Terry Pratchett

      And when that fails the next Pratchettian proviso kicks in:

      he phrase 'Someone ought to do something' was not, by itself, a helpful one. People who used it never added the rider 'and that someone is me'.

      In other words most people don't want to believe chan

  • Back when it was being built, our next door neighbor (a carpenter) went up to work on it. I remember at the time there was a lot of concern about how it was being built, directly onto the permafrost... you know, that frozen ground that had been frozen solid for tens of thousands of years. It's going to be one costly s.o.b. when the oil companies who have privatized most of the profit for decades leave the mess for the taxpayers to have to clean up.
  • Starting just a few feet below the surface and extending tens or even hundreds of feet down, it contains vast amounts of carbon in organic matter -- plants that took carbon dioxide from the atmosphere centuries ago, died and froze before they could decompose.

    So, this carbon was captured only "centuries ago", yet its release back into the atmosphere is going to lead to unprecedented global warming that is going to destroy civilization, wipe out humanity, and maybe end higher life on the planet?

    Somebody needs

    • So, this carbon was captured only "centuries ago",

      Things captured millenia ago were also captured centuries ago, only more of them. But most importantly, more people know what a century is than a millenium.

      • Things captured millenia ago were also captured centuries ago, only more of them.

        The article says "took carbon dioxide from the atmosphere centuries ago" which I summarized as "captured centuries ago". Sorry, that's unambiguous and cannot refer to your interpretation.

        But most importantly, more people know what a century is than a millenium.

        Are you having a stroke? In any case, if you're trying to say that the term "centuries" can also refer to a small number of millennia, you are correct. Given climate hist

  • wouldn't be offset with trees/plants finally growing in this region like it was before?

BLISS is ignorance.

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