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Space

Aliens Are Probably Everywhere, Just Not Anywhere Nearby 334

rossgneumann writes If there's intelligent life in the cosmos, it's probably nowhere we can get to anytime soon. At least that's the finding of the astrobiologist who, for the first time in decades, has rendered a major update to the key formula scientists use to seek out interstellar life. That'd be the Drake equation, which was developed over half a century ago to determine where life might lurk in the universe. Using the new Kepler data, astrobiologist Amri Wandel did some calculations to estimate the density of life-bearing worlds in our corner of the universe.
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Aliens Are Probably Everywhere, Just Not Anywhere Nearby

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  • Drake is Obtuse (Score:5, Interesting)

    by vortex2.71 ( 802986 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @04:39PM (#48525959)

    I've always felt that the Drake Equation is not worthy of the term 'equation' since its just a simple probabilistic estimate from multiplying a ton of other probabilities and instances together. Consider for instance, the Schrödinger equation, which has a differential formulation that provides solutions to so many physical situations that arise in quantum mechanics, or Maxwell's equations, which explain all of electrodynamics, including light, and were the inspiration for Einstein's theory of special relativity.

    • We can't even estimate the error in the Drake Equation, since so much is fundamentally unknown. But at least we know more about the number of potential Earth-like planets out there, which is the real point of this article.
      • Re:Drake is Obtuse (Score:5, Informative)

        by idji ( 984038 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @05:00PM (#48526185)
        Have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F... [wikipedia.org], where you see that the Drake equation is a famous example of a Fermi problem, and discussion of errors in Fermi estimations. The goal is to get orders of magnitude, and Fermi problems help to understand where to go for better data, and so they are useful and practical. In this case, the Kepler mission is partly driven by the goal of improving data in the Drake equation to get better estimates.
        • Re:Drake is Obtuse (Score:5, Interesting)

          by Baloroth ( 2370816 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @09:19PM (#48527853)

          Unfortunately the Drake equation is worthless even for that purposes, as several terms in it cannot be estimated with any accuracy at all, and may in fact never be able to. You can't for example, extrapolate the probability of life evolving on a given planet when you only know of a single example of life evolving (extrapolation requires at least two instances). That leaves 4 terms in the Drake equation (fraction of planets that develop life, fraction of living planets that develop intelligence, fraction of those that end up sending signals into space (though those latter two should probably be condensed into a single term), and length they send out said signals) that cannot be estimated with any accuracy until we discover some instance of them. Which, rather ironically, means the Drake equation is worthless for any kinds of actual predictions unless we actually discover intelligent life, at which point the entire problem it was meant to illustrate becomes kind of moot (because we'll then know the answer that yes, there definitely is other intelligent life in the universe).

          You can sort-of put weak upper bounds on (at least some of) those terms, but we're a long way from being able to do that.

    • Re:Drake is Obtuse (Score:5, Informative)

      by buchner.johannes ( 1139593 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @04:53PM (#48526085) Homepage Journal

      I've always felt that the Drake Equation is not worthy of the term 'equation' since its just a simple probabilistic estimate from multiplying a ton of other probabilities and instances together.

      It has a term on the left and a term on the right, and an equal sign in between. You can also see the Drake Equation as a Bayesian Network [wikipedia.org] combined with a Poisson estimator for the mean (n*p).

      • Look we all know of those joke daily mail equation about "best" day of the week to do x,y,z , all having no causal relationship whatsoever. It is an equation, alright. The problem is that the drake equation is about as useless as it can be , and still it let people drop a lot of ink. The main problem is that many of the term cannot be estimated.... Until we visit far flung corner of the galaxy or the unvierse and find no life/life there. Ultimately int he absnece of facts too many term are simply down to wh
    • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday December 04, 2014 @04:53PM (#48526111)

      If we are merely looking for intelligent life, we should be ecstatic about finding an octopus. They are quite intelligent, and you don't even have to leave the planet to find them.

      I mention this because what if we went to another planet in search of intelligent life and found something like an octopus? How would we communicate with them? My guess is by cooking them, and then eating them.

    • The length of the civilization bugs me. It's one of the variables. It's measured in some thousands of years. The only one we know of is around ten thousand years, but as far as aliens listening to radio waves are concerned, it's closer to a hundred years.

      But having a number there also places an upper bound on the timespan, and that does not reflect reality. As far as we know, civilization lasts forever, once started.

      That's a big infinity in the equation. I'm just sayin'.

  • by Cardoor ( 3488091 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @04:50PM (#48526061)
    intelligent non-human life is most likely everywhere around us, but beyond the perceptual capacities of the vast majority of humans. Goldfish don't see you walking by their bowl, they just see a flash of light (and maybe color?) and fit it into the only perceptual framework they can grasp. Every species on the planet does this on a continuum of consciousness.. perceiving the less sentient, but blind to the nature of the more advanced. to think that we humans are conveniently at the very top of this continuum is both height of hubris, as well as statistically unlikely.
    • Very well said.

    • For all we know, most intelligent life exists on gas giants and in oceans.

      We're probably just freaks.

    • So far the evidence seems to weigh in favour of us being top dog in our immediate surroundings (earth, the solar system at least, perhaps nearby interstellar space as well). It is possible that superintelligent stuff exists near us, invisible to us, but very unlikely that this intelligence would leave no trace or mark that we can perceive yet not fit in our simple theories of physics and nature (indicating existence of another intelligence). And as far as the universe is concerned, we may well be near the
      • Just because we happen to be the most efficient at converting the environment to products for our use does not make us the most intelligent species on the planet. Considering all of the harm that we are doing to the environment due to our shortsightedness I would contend that we aren't nearly as smart as most of us think we are.
        • Hey, at lest we get to claim the title of "most dangerous species in large groups". Makes me proud to be human!
          • Hey, at lest we get to claim the title of "most dangerous species in large groups". Makes me proud to be human!

            I thought the bubonic plague held that title.

        • by suutar ( 1860506 )

          you're conflating intelligence and wisdom.

        • Due to our success as a species many people tend to think that human-like intelligence is a sort of a evolutionary inevitability but the only other species with intelligence close if not the same as ours, the Neanderthals not only was a closely related species, they are also extinct. Homo Sapiens ourselves, came very close to extinction. As a species we didn't gain an upper hand until the advancement of tool making hundreds of thousands of years into our existence and no one knows if that was inevitable giv
    • intelligent non-human life is most likely everywhere around us

      it is *not* most likely everywhere. the fact that your theory is not provably false does make it likely.

    • Humans have been extending their perceptual capabilities for centuries. What do you think a telescope, electron microscope, or mass spectrometer are? We've detected dark matter in other galaxies and as far as we can tell it barely interacts with normal matter. We've detected neutrinos. We've detected Kuiper Belt objects by the thousands. Goldfish may not be able to understand these extra-philial intelligences, but they can sure as hell see them.

      Every species on the planet does this on a continuum of consciousness.. perceiving the less sentient, but blind to the nature of the more advanced.

      Mystical bullshit. For one thing, in purely biological terms t

  • hang on (Score:5, Funny)

    by spike hay ( 534165 ) <blu_ice AT violate DOT me DOT uk> on Thursday December 04, 2014 @04:52PM (#48526073) Homepage

    So you're telling me that things in other star systems are far away?

    • I work in radio astronomy. From what I can gather, things in other star systems are too far away to even be able to communicate, much less transport between them.

      Those huge arrays of radio telescopes being built in Chile and South Africa are able to detect things on the order of a planet in size. That doesn't mean that they can communicate with the planet, just see that it exists.
      • You only point out why radio SETI is stupid. On the other hand, optical SETI with lasers makes perfect sense.

  • Support the supposition is right, that the nearest world with any type of life (likely single-celled) is on the order of ten to a hundred light years away. Do you know what we call that kind of world? Ours!!

  • Best to keep this planet as stable as possible, 'cause we're stuck here and ain't no one coming to save us.

  • by occasional_dabbler ( 1735162 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @05:00PM (#48526187)
    ...there is no fairy godmother gonna make it all alright.

    The situation is very simple: The probability of all life being extinguished on Earth in the next 2 ish billion years is 100%. If we want to survive beyond that we need to get off planet. Earh is 4.5 billion year old. Talk of cost is ridiculous: I can fly from UK to US for less than one day's wages (on a good day) and I'm just a regular guy. 500 years ago it took the lifetime's savings of a wealthy man to make the same journey. It is ALL about energy. Once we have a reliable means of providing it on a sun-scale then we can do anything we want. We evolved to an understanding of relativity and quantum mechanics in a few million years, why the hell shouldn't we make a few more steps, given the same time again?

    • Considering the human civilization is a few thousand years old, I don't think we have any way of knowing the limits of what we might achieve in the next million years, assuming we survive that long. I think the next big stumbling block we need to tackle is sustainability. How can we create a system as closed off as a spaceship or a space colony that can survive indefinitely without resupply? For that matter, how can we create an economy here on Earth that can survive indefinitely without self-destructing

    • Once we have a reliable means of providing it on a sun-scale then we can do anything we want.

      I'm thinking that didn't work out all that well for the Krell.

    • We evolved to an understanding of relativity and quantum mechanics in a few million years

      if by "we" you mean life, it's been much more than a few million years. if you meant homo sapiens, it's been much less than that. what arbitrary point in evolution are you picking?

  • by TapeCutter ( 624760 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @05:00PM (#48526189) Journal

    for the first time in decades, has rendered a major update to the key formula scientists use to seek out interstellar life

    The formula hasn't changed, the variables are still unknown. Someone simply used recent data to make an educated guess as to the value of one variable. The Drake equation is basically a thought experiment, it was never meant to give a real answer. People who attempt to plug in "more accurate values" are missing the point.

    • by kruach aum ( 1934852 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @05:36PM (#48526529)

      Thought experiments are not inherently meant to not give "real answers". Galileo used a thought experiment to prove Aristotle's theory of gravity wrong. Aristotle held that heavy objects fell faster than light ones. Galileo asked us to imagine a heavy object tied to a light object by a rope. Based on Aristotle's hypothesis, tying a light object to a heavy one would make the heavy one fall slower; as the light object would naturally fall more slowly than the heavy one, it would 'hold the heavy object back' in its fall. However, also based on Aristotle's hypothesis, tying a light object to a heavy object would make the heavy object fall faster, as its mass had now been increased by the mass of the light object. Given the fact that assuming the same premise ("Heavier objects fall faster than light ones") lead to opposite conclusions, Galileo reasoned that the premise had to be false, on the basis of the foregoing thought experiment.

      • by Z8 ( 1602647 )

        An interesting argument, but apparently Aristotle thought that heavy objects only fall faster than light ones if identically shaped. This is because the heavier object must contain a higher ratio of the heavier elements (Earth and Water vs Fire and Air). See Aristotle on falling [wikipedia.org].

        If you tied a lighter object to a heavier one, it obviously won't necessarily increase the Earth density of the resulting compound object.

        • by jrumney ( 197329 )

          Aristotle held that heavy objects fell faster than light ones.

          Aristotle was of course right, its just that for most everyday objects, the effect of buoyancy in the Earth's atmosphere is negligible compared to the effect of gravity. What Galileo did was separate out the two forces acting on the objects.

  • Really? It was my understanding the Drake equation was just some back of the envelope shit, figuring in factors a human being could think of when it came to the possibility of extra-terrestrial life. Surely this has been modeled more accurately since?

    • The number of data points for "planets with intelligent life" equals 1. I have a model that fits this data perfectly, I dare you to improve on it.
  • Plus, we have really bad manners, and they really don't want to hang out with us.

  • As much as I like the idea of anything confirming that life in the universe is abundant, this is again little more than an educated guess.

    RTFA, he seems to be trying to update the drake equation based on the presence of planets in the goldielocks zones of local stellar populations. Fine as far as that goes, but I strongly suspect that such populations will derive more consistently from where they are on the main sequence, as well as their stellar neighborhoods.

    This means that simply extrapolating our local

  • Considering the recent discoveries right here on Earth of life forms that live in incredibly harsh environments like geothermal vents and the ongoing discoveries of planets in other solar systems, I bet something that counts as alive lives all over the universe. Finding a technological civilization OTOH, that one looks tough. Pretty sure no one has yet got a >C starship going or they would be here and everywhere else too. We will likely be the first if it can be done at all and then the aliens we find wi
    • Pretty sure no one has yet got a starship going or they would be here and everywhere else too.

      The Sol system is on quarantine until we get our shit together or self-destruct.

      • Good point - we are probably on some galactic list of bad hoods or something.
      • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

        by Anonymous Coward

        The prime directive does definitely apply to us. Until we become a type 1 civilization its pretty unlikely this will change, assuming there is any kind of benevolent interspecies "Federation". A lot of that (depending on the technological level of the members of that Federation) depends on where we are too, In a Star Trek sense, our experience would be much different if we lived in Federation space and the prime directive was in force on our planet (though that might not stop them from dressing up as us or

  • Given that we have only managed to get 12 men to our own freakin moon for brief visits in our entire history, and can't seem to find the wherewithal to send any more any time soon, this doesn't seem like a profound conclusion to me.
    • We are a violent species that wastes a ton of resources on fighting each other. Other life may go about its business much more productively.

      • Perhaps, or they could be a bunch of nasty customers who are practicing emcon so that we won't get good targeting data.
  • by Tablizer ( 95088 ) on Thursday December 04, 2014 @07:28PM (#48527247) Journal

    The fact that we are in a small galactic cluster, per typical cluster, suggests its small size has protected us from being visited or invaded. If we had evolved in a medium or large cluster, the most likely case otherwise due to density, then perhaps we'd have encountered ET's by now. ET's are less likely to visit & colonize sparse clusters because it's too far to travel for too few resources.

    Copernican Principle and Anthropic Principle would suggest that some factor is involved to "keep us out" of denser clusters, where probability would otherwise place us. The boondocks are protecting us. Nobody is bothering us because we are stellar rednecks hidden in the difficult-to-reach woods.

  • Is that there is likely life on some of the planets around the stars we see in the night sky, but we will likely never know for sure.
  • by mark-t ( 151149 ) <markt AT nerdflat DOT com> on Friday December 05, 2014 @12:40AM (#48528601) Journal

    A lot of people seem so incredulous at the very notion that as far as intelligent life goes (that is, an organism capable of questioning its surroundings and its very existence), human beings are "it". Many suggest that it should be mathematically improbable for such a thing, and yet in reality, we only have a sample size of 1,and have absolutely no way to know how likely such life may actually be anywhere else. Neither, of course, do we have any particular reason to conclude that we *are* actually alone in the universe, but the reality is that if such life didn't actually exist anywhere else, absolutely nothing in our world would be changed by such a revelation, if it were possible to ever know that for certain.

    If uniqueness can exist in a domain like mathematics, where actual infinities can be encountered and explained, it seems vastly more likely that in a universe that is quite clearly of finite age, uniqueness would be that much more common.

    • by Ramze ( 640788 )

      This is the crux of the "intelligent life out there" argument. We literally have no idea how probable intelligent, industrialized life is to develop - even on planets proven to have life and what time scale or necessary events must take place for it to arise. Apes likely became intelligent on Earth because of extreme changes in habitats and multiple near-extinction events which forced survivors to adapt and adopt tool use to compete and thrive. Maybe such evolutionary pressures are rare, and maybe speci

  • The Tissint meteorite fell in Tata Province, in the Guelmim-Es Semara region of Morocoo, on 18 July 2011. It broke apart in the atmosphere and rained material on to Earth, with several pieces being recovered and some being sold. It is also only the fifth Martian meteorite to be seen falling to Earth by eyewitnesses - the last being in 1962. Tissint had been ejected from the surface of Mars 700,000 years ago when an asteroid struct the surface. Of most interest is the sign of certain elements being carried i

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