European Health Levels Suddenly Collapsed After 2003 and Nobody Is Sure Why 304
KentuckyFC writes "Europeans are living longer. But since 2003, they've suddenly enjoyed fewer years of healthy life. For example, in Italy between 1995 and 2003, life expectancy increased from 75 to 80.1 for men and from 81.8 to 85.3 for women. At the same time, the number of years of healthy life increased from 66.7 to 70.9 for men and from 70 to 74.4 for women. But since 2003, while life expectancy has increased further, the number of years of healthy living has plummeted to about 62 for both sexes. More worrying still is that demographers say the same trend has been repeated right across Europe. Only the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands appear to have escaped. That raises an obvious question: what happened in 2003? One idea is that the weather is to blame. In 2003, Europe experienced an extreme heat wave that led to some 80,000 extra deaths across the region. And the higher temperatures could also have triggered ill health, particularly in older people suffering from chronic diseases such as diabetes. That has important implications for governments who have to pay for health costs in Europe. And it raises the possibility that climate change is already having a bigger impact on human health than anyone imagined."
Facebook (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Facebook (Score:5, Funny)
Sounds right to me. In fact, Facebook is responsible for most of the world's ill's. Eliminate Zuck and his legion of peons, and we'll end ill health, eliminate hunger, end war, and never have an ingrown toenail again. Sounds good to me.
Re:Facebook (Score:5, Insightful)
Even if it doesn't work out, it's worth trying.
Re:Facebook (Score:4, Interesting)
Nah, that's productivity levels. Wouldn't it more likely be McDonalds?
Are they fatter? (Score:5, Insightful)
My guess would be that they are just following America's lead and are becoming fatter.
The article even says:
And yet this increasing lifespan masks a dark secret. Many developed countries are suffering an epidemic of chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease thanks to poor diets and sedentary lifestyles. The numbers are such that they must inevitably influence the health of nations as a whole but by how much?
Then the authors go on to blame it on the weather.
Re: (Score:2, Funny)
Maybe it's all the waiting lists for their socialized health care.
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The people born into socialized healthcare are beginning to come to the end of their lifespans.
I don't think that's it but it's an avenue to explore.
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:4, Interesting)
Making up numbers (Score:2)
So the socialized health care that's been running for decades has just recently reduced European health outcomes to only 20% better
Well that's pretty ballsy to claim it's better at all in a story that mentions they are living worse.
Obviously the health care is sucking quite a bit more if their actual life is worse off health wise, the only metric that matters.
BTW I am 20% smarter than you.
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For sure the claim that "socialized medicine stopped working so well when those economies hit the skids" makes far more sense than "it's all Global Warming: Mother Gaia punishes us for the sins of carbon emission".
BTW, I'm 20% cooler than everyone upthread.
Re: (Score:3)
Right after you and Facts get together for a first-ever meeting.
Logic though is an old best friend of mine, I guess you didn't know that as Logic says you hardly stop by any more.
Heat wave discouraged exercise? (Score:4, Insightful)
Screw it. It's too hot to go outside we'll stay inside and eat. I know that most older people that I know start going downhill quickly when they stop moving.
Re:Heat wave discouraged exercise? (Score:5, Interesting)
Not only older people. When I was young we used to play with Lego in the winter and be outside when it was warm. Many of today's youth just play computer games all day long, on their playstations or what have you and outside on their phones. They only move their thumbs.
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Not only older people. When I was young we used to play with Lego in the winter and be outside when it was warm. Many of today's youth just play computer games all day long, on their playstations or what have you and outside on their phones. They only move their thumbs.
But they move them really really quickly.
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to be fair, it's not like lego is super intense. unless Europeans do it differently than americans.
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We built cars and planes and ran through the house with them.
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
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ah but if you eat right you can do that and lose weight.
My old job I was on my feet all day, lifting heavy loads constantly.( i could carry 120lbs a quarter mile, walk back and do it again) I usually had a large lunch, minimal breakfast and dinner. I gained on average 1-2 pounds a year, after 15 years though that adds up.
I moved changed jobs and diet.
I know sit in an office for 8 hours a day. I walk maybe 500meters on the average day. I still eat a minimal breakfast, but lunch is now a yogurt, and maybe
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That means I do not even walk 200 meters per day.
I bet you if you grab a pedometer you will see that you walk a lot further than 200 meters. Even if that is just repeated trips to the bathroom/fridge. But still probably not much more than 2000 steps. So this will double when you change jobs.
Why is it that so many people like you are aware of this but are not doing anything about it?
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I don't think I get as much exercise as I should, and I cycle 13km every working day, my flat and office are both on second floors but I don't use the lifts, and I don't own a car so all trips not cycled are by public transport. Also, it's at least 500m from the office to the usual place for lunch. (I'm skinny, but I'm still in my 20s and doubt sitting for most of the day and many evenings does me any good.)
I've been considering going swimming at lunchtimes, but haven't yet made the time to do so.
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:5, Funny)
We prefer the terms,
"Big boned"
"fluffy"
"horizontally blessed"
Saying we're fat can lessen our mental well being which causes global warming.
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:4, Insightful)
I don't know why the jump to a conclusion about the weather, or why the assumption that the catalyst must have necessarily occurred precisely in 2003. I would put my money on this being an issue with diet. Monsanto's MON 810 strain of corn was approved for growing in the EU in 1998, for example. It's probably more likely that they are adopting a western diet though, which tends to make people unhealthy [forksoverknives.com].
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:4, Insightful)
That sounds reasonable, but it doesn't explain why the European nation with the biggest weight problem (UK) seems unaffected.
Or "Austerity" (Score:4, Interesting)
So basically, cut peoples standard of living through a program of massive wealth transference to the top 1% and their life expectancies go down. Who knew?
In Europe old people don't expect... (Score:2)
Re:In Europe old people don't expect... (Score:5, Funny)
There's no lameness filter for bold!
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WOOT!
Do some more studying (Score:5, Insightful)
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Actually, considering the last decade's average temperatures are basically unprecedented, that might be harder than you claim.
Re:Do some more studying (Score:4, Interesting)
Feel free to read any one of the scientific papers on how the temperatures in Europe were equal to or higher than todays ~1000 years ago.
(And, for that matter, ~2000 and ~3000 years ago as well. You'll know these as the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period and the Bronze Age Warm Period)
http://www.clim-past.net/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.html [clim-past.net]
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/10/26/0959683612460791.abstract [sagepub.com]
http://www.wsl.ch/fe/landschaftsdynamik/dendroclimatology/Publikationen/Esper_etal.2012_GPC [www.wsl.ch]
Or just deny the science and, like the article, repeat activist mantras - no matter the factual content.
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Hey, we live longer than we did back then.
No harm in global warming, by that numbers the climate could get another 20 or 30 degrees hotter before we'd have to worry about health. Well, if we don't mind dying around 35 on average again.
Are you sure? (Score:3)
I applaud your effort to bring actual data to the discussion, but I'm not certain those links support your claim of temperatures "equal to or higher than todays". Closest I could find in the first paper was:
The level of warmth during the peak of the MWP in the second half of the 10th century, equalling or slightly exceeding the mid-20th century warming, is in agreement with the results from other more recent large-scale multi-proxy temperature reconstructions
(emphasis mine) ... but we know global temperatures have risen significantly in the last 60 years. Do you have evidence that this is not the case in Europe?
The second link was paywalled, but the abstract says northern Sweden experienced "similar levels of summer warmth in the medieval period (MWP, c. CE
Re:Do some more studying (Score:5, Interesting)
Most of Europe is Agrarian where land is dominantly used for agriculture. Countries like France. There was the introduction of a pesticide ban in 2003/2004 - The Rotterdam Convention
http://www.pan-europe.info/Archive/Banned%20and%20authorised.htm [pan-europe.info]
The Convention entered into force on 24 February 2004 and became legally binding for its Parties. Perhaps the replacement chemicals were worse than the original ones that were banned.
Re:Do some more studying (Score:5, Insightful)
I doubt this has a single factor, but it may be that the current cohort of old people had some disadvantage while young that the previous generation did not.
But for the life of me I can't think of a major event that happened right across Europe in the 1930's and 1940s' that might explain it. Oh wait...
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Indeed. Drawing conclusions so prematurely is highly unscientific.
Don't Worry, Be Happy...Live Longer (Score:5, Insightful)
How about the austerity measures, put into place across Europe. Perhaps the stress countries are coming under is spreading to peoples health to the point were it is a negative response. Happy people live longer and in many EU countries, people are not happy.
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Yeah, that definitely started in 2003. /s
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Yeah, if we want to inject completely arbitrary politics into it, clearly the U.S. bombing middle eastern countries raises mortality rates in Europe.
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Depending on which european country you're talking about, it did start in 2003.
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So how'd it work out in the Baltic states?
Re:Except No European Country Has Actual Austerity (Score:4, Insightful)
Really well!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1864111-the-post-crisis-facts-are-in-and-theyre-not-kind-to-keynesian-thinking [seekingalpha.com]
Amazon... (Score:2)
http://science.slashdot.org/story/13/11/25/1746222/bbc-amazon-workers-face-increased-risk-of-mental-illness [slashdot.org]
It's obvious, isn't it? (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:2)
If your Republican, every ill is Barak Obama's fault.
If you're Democrat, every ill is Global Warming's fault.
Re:It's obvious, isn't it? (Score:4, Funny)
and if your tea party then grammar is optional.
Can't resist (Score:2)
and if your tea party then grammar is optional.
and if you're tea party then grammar is optional. (Fixed that for you)
Apparently, if you're a /.er, grammar is optional.
Cheers,
Dave
Re:It's obvious, isn't it? (Score:5, Funny)
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Someone could mistake that post for serious.
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Not to mention the kings George I, II & III!
Increased immigration... (Score:4, Interesting)
... of less healthy people, who probably experienced more malnutrition and disease in childhood, might explain it.
More likely it's just a bug in the survey's methodology.
Re: (Score:2)
I would like to see a break down of the numbers by ethnic group and, especially, ethnic group and native born. Many of ills of adulthood can be traced to things like childhood malnutrition, lack of sanitation and exposure to various diseases, etc. Even things as mundane as having a smokey cook stove/fire inside the house. Lots of people who immigrate to Europe from other parts of the world do so to escape these. Unfortunately, they can't always escape the legacy.
Cheers,
Dave
Sweden case is odd (Score:5, Informative)
The article lists Sweden among the countries where the years of health are going down, but when you look at the graph for individual countries, Sweden has a strong positive trend, and does not go down significantly in any year. Is that an error, or have I missed something?
On a side note, the article is confusing "Europe" with "The European Union". They aren't the same thing, especially when making statements like "Only the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands appear to have escaped". They didn't consider Iceland, Norway, Switzerland or any of the eastern european countries, for example. (Also, France is among those considered, and also doesn't seem to be declining).
Finally, the study is based on interview subjects' own perception of their health, and so might be affected by news reporing on health or other psychologial effects. But it is definitely an interesting result they've found.
I Have long suspected... (Score:2)
This has been posted on here before, so I'm kind of just karma whoring, but I have long suspected, and explained to others, that this idea that we can all work until we're 70 or 75 because we'll live to 100 for this generation is bullshit, a scam to keep us grinding along and working until we drop dead. I say that with all the technological advances we've made in the last 50 years we may have less of an idea of what much of it does to the body than we think. it might not be making for a good quality of life
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actually we all HAVE to work until 75 to pay for the welfare state juggernaut.
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Unfortunately, it's mostly idiots in their 20s that manage that last one. If you're 25 and haven't already started using meth while running from the cops after robbing a bank, it's too late to start down that path.
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only a drug addict does meth while committing crimes. the rest of us know how to compartmentalize our lives.
what about immigrants? (Score:3)
lots of immigration into europe. and if they eat anything like my russian in laws this explains everything
the russians eat too much carbs. the only people on the planet to eat pasta and bread and potatoes together. and then they wonder why they get diabetes
Actually a recent issue? (Score:4, Insightful)
Needs more study obviously (Score:3)
You can't jump to conclusions about the weather. The thing about France is telling. They didn't drop until 2006, and I remember hearing some truly awful things about what the heat did to the elderly there. If I had to guess, I'd say that some change in government policy had something to do with it. UK is not as strongly tied to Europe. Some of these other countries are tied in economic union; but they are still sovereign. Perhaps France was able to provide good retirement benefits just a bit longer. That would be the first place I'd look--the impact of government policies that impact the elderly. If you suddenly have to take an early retirement and aren't getting the same benefits that will impact your lifestyle.
Government policy impact does a better job of explaining discrepancies between countries, the sudden change, and why some are not affected even though they share a similar climate.
Of course my speculation is no better than theirs. The people that are getting paid to do this need to go back and analyze their data some more.
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It wasn't just what the _heat_ did to the elderly, but what the _medical system_ allowed to happen to everyone.
The 2003 heat wave killed 13,000 people in France. Hospital corridors became overflowing morgues. Half the doctors were out for their month of vacation time, and the ones that were on the job worked three 12-hour shifts and then stayed home for 4 days. The two groups switched places when the first group's vacation month was over. And they were all just following the laws that required that.
When I s
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If any for-profit hospital tried that approach, the libertarian solution of "Then you can sue them" would prevent it from going on too long. Certainly not for the whole summer.
Libertarians believe you should be able to sue people for choosing to take vacation instead of providing you services? A private hospital wouldn't have the freedom to sell its services howsoever it chose, including saying "sorry, we're on vacation, come back next month"? What's the Libertarian ground for a lawsuit against someone who says "wow, there are suddenly lots of customers desperate for my product, I can raise prices to maximize profits"? Isn't that how the "free market" is supposed to work, regardl
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Thanks.
Maybe the line is moving (Score:5, Insightful)
Medical Technology (Score:3)
Medical technology keeping unhealthy people alive far longer than it used to....
http://science.slashdot.org/story/13/11/26/1511238/why-scott-adams-wished-death-on-his-dad [slashdot.org]
The great depression? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re: (Score:3)
The Great Depression is more a USA thing.
I'm sure the Germans who were paying a million marks for a loaf of bread ca. 1931 would readily agree with this statement as they wheeled their barrow-loads of banknotes to the neighbourhood grocery.
More interesting... (Score:3)
...is what happened in 2010 to cause the even larger spike upward, and why did it reverse itself.
Food Quality (Score:3)
I bet its food quality. The quality of our food has gone down as we try to get more and more off the land. Health care has gotten better though.
So people are staying alive longer but are less healthy.
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That could be measured by heights of children vs. parents. Assuming they have had children.
Badly written and unpublished (Score:4, Insightful)
This paper is in its infancy. It is somewhat garbled, the methods don't really specify the methods.
The methods are basically "we graphed mortality over time". But you can't really criticize it much,
because it is not published, and probably not submitted yet. The only question is why did it get to slashdot?
The most likely explanation for the effect at this stage is some kind of error. Either in the calculation,
or as the authors point out, in the wording of the questions (which probably would be a good idea to
test before this paper is published ?)
"Standardized translations of the questionnaire have been used; nevertheless it is likely that linguistic or cultural differences, as well as changes in the wording of questions, have influenced the way the respondents indicate a longstanding health problem or disability and their way of communicating the types of restrictions caused by this problem"
Or, in the population measured (migration from East-Block countries?) or many other possible problems.
All these I'd bet much higher chances than a real health effect.
Re: (Score:3)
Replying to myself.
The relevant stats are about years of healthy life, and not life expectancy. That didn't change at all.
So whatever effect there is has nothing to do with dying, and only with being sick (Huh?)
Years of healthy life has a lot to do with wording of questions, and just looking over the italy stats in the raw
data, the years of the anomaly are also the years in which the data table states that the question was worded differently.
So, my conclusion is: nothing to see here, move on.
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This paper is in its infancy. It is somewhat garbled, the methods don't really specify the methods.
The paper would barely pass a Freshman English class at a competent school. It looks like something a high-schooler would write. There's plenty to criticize in the thing. The structure is scattered and disjointed, for a start, and that's before even getting into the methodology, of which there is none. It's merely a graph that they probably picked up somewhere, as you mentioned.
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Yes, here: http://is.gd/7q1YoR [is.gd]
and here: http://is.gd/A29tl4 [is.gd]
Why am I still here? Why are you still here?
I guess http://xkcd.com/386/ [xkcd.com]
Eastern Europe joined in 2004 (Score:4, Informative)
So what else happened to the European Union after 2003? Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Hungary joined the E.U. in 2004. These countries have huge numbers of elderly people in relatively poor health as a result of mediocre Warsaw Pact health and nutrition. This will obviously lower the overall health of the EU average, but I'm willing to bet a bunch of them migrated to other EU countries and depressed the stats for individual nations.
Don't think I'm arguing against immigration here: the effect is to increase the health of the European continent overall, which is a good thing.
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Excellent point. If you change your target population significantly, then comparability goes out the window. I've done alot of health stats work, and that sort of change would probably mean the results were denoted as not comparable. In a related example, I had a heart disease analysis, and we had to break it in two parts because there was a significant change in the way that the diagnosis were recorded around 2005.
Now you could regenerate the pre-2003 numbers including the populations of the soon to join t
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Statistically this doesn't add up. Even if a million such people moved to each of the countries in the study it would not have caused the numbers to drop by over 10 years. It also doesn't explain the countries that are the exceptions.
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The comparison is made for each individual nation, not for the EU as a whole.
"The obvious culprit is the weather" (Score:3)
Whatever you do don't put the blame on you blame it on the rain yeah yeah. Cuz the rain don't mind and the rain don't care.
Eurotrash dbaggery? (Score:2)
Did they choke on their own smug?
Two changes in the food chain (Score:2)
People live in all kinds of climates so that seems like a stretch to me.
However since 2003 there have been two significant changes in the food chain.
GMOs have become prevalent thruout the food chain.
Neonicotinoid pesticides have become widely used.
Gee... (Score:2)
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So sure, we can blame climate change, water fluoridation, or imbalanced chakra, but as I see it, there probably isn't any change in EU human health to worry about here.
World at War forever (Score:2)
The *real* cause is obvious (Score:4, Funny)
All the H1B programmers that had been hired to work on Y2K returned to Europe, bringing with them the North American diet.
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Except they actually returned to India, so there goes that idea.
i know why... (Score:3)
McDonalds.. The American fast food chains started pushing HARD across europe.
The Herpes that is american fast food is spreading across the planet.
Government paying what? (Score:4, Insightful)
That has important implications for governments who have to pay for health costs in Europe.
Government does not pay health costs. Citizen do through taxes, or insured people do through fees.
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We have cellphones and wifi in the UK, and I'm pretty sure they have them in the Netherlands too ;)
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it's probably car accidents. since 2003 the car ownership rate has skyrocketed. there was a jump that year due to a change in import/export control laws.
Re:electonic pollution (Score:5, Insightful)
More and more of electronic pollution? Mire wifi usage, more cellphones + more upper gigahertz traffic (G2, G3, G4)?
Imbalanced chakras? Cold and squared audio output from transistor amps? The decline of the department store?
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probably the population is getting older as a result so the numbers go down since 2003
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and fukushima, 5 years premonition
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Denmark and the Netherlands have tall people, which offsets the effect of low altitude
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GMO's? Thought they were banned in the EU.
In fact some scientists are now saying the EU policy toward GMOs is harmful to the overall population quality of crops, agriculture and is leading to more rapid deterioration of the environment in Europe.
http://www.euractiv.com/science-policymaking/chief-eu-scientist-backs-damning-news-530693 [euractiv.com]
Interesting thought anyway.
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But that doesn't explain the results in the UK, Netherlands and Denmark.
Re:Alternative Theory (Score:4, Funny)
Exactly, that's why tropical areas enjoy such a healthy life!
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I know you're trying to be snarky, but in fact it would be true if the warm tropical weather came by itself without the increase in disease carrying insects and vermin, torrential rain, etc. Not to mention the cultures that evolved in tropical climates have yet to develop science and medical technology.
The few places in tropical climates that have developed to European levels enjoy excellent health and longevity. Singapore would be one example.
Fact is, people (especially old people) die en mass in cold winters and do well in hot weather. Why do you think old people all move to Florida instead of enjoying their Michigan/NY winters?
Without the very bleeding edge in anti-parasitic technologies, warm weather means increased parasite load starting among children and young adults, and continuing to EOL. The American south is something of an exception, because the US FDA (remember, the gumment ain't done nothing for you!) has eliminated yellow fever, screwworms, and most of the least pleasant parasitic buddies of tropical living, with air conditioning mopping up the rest. Were it not for that, they'd probably be hanging out with their budd