CO2 Levels Reach 400ppm at Mauna Loa For First Time On Record 497
Titus Andronicus writes "Today, NOAA reported, 'On May 9, the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time since measurements began in 1958.' For comparison, over the last 800,000 years, CO2 has ranged from roughly 180 ppm to 280 ppm. 'For the entire period of human civilization, roughly 8,000 years, the carbon dioxide level was relatively stable near that upper bound. But the burning of fossil fuels has caused a 41 percent increase in the heat-trapping gas since the Industrial Revolution, a mere geological instant, and scientists say the climate is beginning to react, though they expect far larger changes in the future.' The last time Earth had 400 ppm was probably more than 3 megayears ago."
LOL (Score:2, Interesting)
Megayears? Someone trying to sound smarter than they are?
Re:LOL (Score:5, Funny)
Re:LOL (Score:5, Funny)
Re:LOL (Score:4, Informative)
Re:I'VE BEEN DUPED! (Score:4, Informative)
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gigadays, WTF !!!
ISO have just announced that you are wrong, its not gigadays, its gigidays.
Re:LOL (Score:5, Funny)
wtf is a megayear? I only know gigadays.
It's just marketing fraud by geologists to make the time span seem longer, 3 mega-years is only 2.86 mebi-years.
Re:LOL (Score:5, Informative)
Re:LOL (Score:4, Funny)
mya [wikipedia.org]
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If he wrote with a lisp would ya make fun of that, too?
queue the denialists! (Score:4, Funny)
i hope there's a special place in hell for people who spent the 70's til present denying climate change - you know who you are. Unfortunately it will be the same place in hell as everyone else when it gets too hot around here.
Why is Global Warming So Bad? (Score:2)
So glaciers melt - they have melted before and came back in a few million years there is no reason to believe that this will not occur again. So we lose access to them now but this would happen eventually anyway. Sure not in our lifetimes but across the millions or billions of years before the sun kills the planet completely ice will come a
Re:queue the denialists! (Score:5, Interesting)
As pointed out by Lionel Dricot at http://ploum.net/post/the-cost-of-being-convinced [ploum.net], there is a cost of changing your position. A large number of climate deniers have invested themselves in the position they have taken, and unless they can find a benefit to changing their position that outweighs the investment they have made, they are likely to stand firm in their state of denial.
Potentially a far more useful technique, than bashing them over the head with the facts, is to start by having them review the facts surrounding the level of CO2 in the atmosphere, and then ask them to provide proposals as to why those levels have changed in the timeframe they have. That engages them in the process of actually doing science, as once they have proposed a hypothesis as to what may be causing an increase in CO2, those hypotheses can be tested. (I.e. it's the destruction of the rainforest - what does satellite data show about the circulation of O2 generated in the rainforest? It tends to stay in the area of the rainforests. Volcanoes emit CO2! Have we seen a tremendous increase in volcanic activity in the past century? No. Etc.) Start getting them to invest in looking at possibilities that can be tested, rather than having them try to change their minds based on decisions they have invested in.
Nah, it probably won't work, but it seems to me to be better than trying to sit and debate the topic with people who've come to the table already decided that no matter what the logic of proof that's provided, they are not going to change their position.
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The 1970's climate scare was global cooling, which was ultimately dropped as incorrect. That gives a large precedent to not caring about (regardless of denying or not) the next climate scare.
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The 1970's climate scare was global cooling, which was ultimately dropped as incorrect. That gives a large precedent to not caring about (regardless of denying or not) the next climate scare.
Global cooling incorrect? Ice ages are a theory very well supported by evidence. As long as there are still permanent ice caps on the poles and glaciers in the mountains, there is no indication whatsoever that the holocene is a 'post' glacial. We are 10000 years into an interglacial, which on average have been lasting about 10k years. The 'flips' between glaciation and interglacial are very sudden (on a geological scale) after a period of slow decline. This wasn't a baseless climate scare, because there is
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Actually humanity fixed global cooling by better air regulations that banned sulphor from being released uncontrolled into the atmosphere.
Humanity stopped the acid rains. But instead the more damaging global warming, that had been repressed by the acid environment, showed its ugly face.
So global cooling was fixed. Now its the time to fix global warming.
PS Yes, you can stop global warmning by spreading sulphor, but it will instead make this a world full of acid rain.
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I suspect that these notions are just easier to have floating in your brain than being constantly confronted with an uncomfortable
Re:queue the denialists! (Score:4, Insightful)
It seems imprudent to me to speak only of the dogma of one side of a complex discussion while ignoring the dogma of the other side.
Yes of course - science is the same as wishing on fairies, and the current climate swing is caused by phlostigen imbalance because of there are not enough people who believe in fairies. Be sure to remain true to your convictions, and refuse any western medical treatment if you feel ill, and be sure to avoid any other products of the science that you scorn, like electricity, sanitation and the internet. Perhaps you could get a job as a tanner, a stone cutter for a cathedral, or a charcoal maker, and live out your short life in the woods far away from the corruptions of science.
What bothers me is that AGW mitigation advocates have yet to justify their position.
I know that bothers you - because you imagine that they need to justify the need for climate action to you, the guy who previously said that Tuvaluans should be trying to "better themselves". Pro tip: Nobody cares what you think. Enjoy your new career - I hear that stale urine is actually quite good for the toenails, though I won't bother explaining why - the explanation is packed full of that sciencey stuff, and you wouldn't like it.
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For example, more people die from cold than heat. [heartland.org] And longer growing seasons in a warmer earth more than offset the reduced arability due
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You are kind of right, but you might be duped.
You or me, hopping along minding our own business, looking for locally produced green alternatives is a drop in a bucket. Meanwhile they are destroying the planet for more profit.
The ones profiting from fucking up the planet are to blame. They have, however, managed to school us into accepting their reality - that we all are in control, individually.
They've taught us, through millions of 30 second tv-spots and with a little help from collaborators, that their wo
Re:queue the denialists! (Score:4, Insightful)
The ones profiting from fucking up the planet are to blame. They have, however, managed to school us into accepting their reality - that we all are in control, individually.
They've taught us, through millions of 30 second tv-spots and with a little help from collaborators, that their world - the "free" market economy is somehow normal and natural, a basic truth and not an ideology of greed and lying and cold blooded disdain for human weakness while every other ideology, of compassion and sharing, for example, is old-fashioned and silly.
"'free' market" you write - so you know that it isn't a free market. As to the ones profiting, do you include teachers' unions? If not, why not? They are just one of thousands of groups (whether a union, business, department, politician) that can be blamed.
Almost half (~40%) of US GDP is spent by the government directly. Of similar magnitude are all the mandated or propped up industries. Regulation compliance, fields with limited competition (doctors/lawyers, anything with government patents or copyright), and mandatory insurance (auto/health) which is really mandatory skimming of the associated costs (I.E., and incredibly dumb fucktarded proposition to force purchase of anything).
Of course, you mention no specifics beyond "eating the rich" and "fucking shit up". I'm not sure how warmongering is going to decrease CO2? As for attacking the rich, same thing.
We make good money manufacturing insulation which is used to DRAMATICALLY decrease CO2 consumption. If we become rich off this... is it OK for you to eat us or fuck up our shit?
As for anarchism, I'm down with it as an anarcho-capitalist (technically also a minarchist/voluntaryist type too - I'm not going to stake a flag in one specific area without better definitions). But I don't advocate murder or fucking people up!!!
Who mod's this interesting, "eating the rich, fucking shit up"??? I hate to Ayn Randian on you, but I have little doubt that the rich are - in your case - morally superior. You set the bar so low, it would be hard to find worse scum.
Re: Why not? This proves Warmists are wrong. (Score:3)
No, what it proves is that climate forcing due to CO2 is likely non-linear in impact. It also may indicate negative feedback loops responding to the changes. Also, since we're not measuring a closed system there are a huge number of possible things causing the current climate response.
This shit is really really really complicated. About the only thing I'm certain of is that all our models for climate so far are not good enough.
Re: Why not? This proves Warmists are wrong. (Score:5, Insightful)
. It also may indicate negative feedback loops responding to the changes.
But that's my skepticism in a nutshell. If I light some candles in my apartment it gets gradually warmer, For a while. Then the AC kicks in. The temperature feedback mechanism in my apartment is much larger than the heat source of a candle, or my gaming rig for that matter,
We know there's some sort of 100 k year cycle. Is it a feedback mechanism? Is it a strong one? Is more CO2 just going to kick in the cooling sooner, or overwhelm the cooling?
The one thing we do know is that "stable climate" is an oxymoron. Keeping temps at the same level just isn't one of our choices. So is warmer or cooler going to bring a better standard of living in the long run? And is more CO2 going to make it warmer (the simple analysis) or cooler (due to corrective feedback coming sooner)? And if it's going to get bad, what that cost in $, and what's it cost to avoid some of it in $, and what's the cheaper path?
It amazes my how many people have strong opinions about this, but have never thought about it beyond "man change - man change bad".
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The feedback mechanism is known. Temperature goes up, evaporation rate goes up leading to more rainfall which causes more erosion which sequesters more carbon. After a few thousand years this feedback will bring the CO2 level back down.
All we need is some patience and the climate will correct itself.
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http://www.csrees.usda.gov/funding/nri/highlights/2007_no9.pdf [usda.gov]
Cool.
Re: Why not? This proves Warmists are wrong. (Score:5, Interesting)
Interesting, I hadn't thought about soil erosion. What I was thinking about was rock weathering where CO2 is consumed by silicate weathering which results in calcium carbonate. This page shows it pretty well, http://dilu.bol.ucla.edu/home.html [ucla.edu]. There are vast amounts of carbon sequestered as calcium carbonate, maybe half that has ever been released from the mantle. Wiki mentions that erosion also transports dissolved CO2 to the ocean where various organisms convert it to calcium carbonate, think shells falling to the bottom of the ocean to form limestone.
In geological time frames this has a large impact on global climate. When the continents are in one mass there is little rainfall in the interior and little erosion. Global CO2 levels increase along with temperature. And the opposite also happens, lots of continents, especially with mountain ranges in the right places so lots of rainfall on land causing erosion and CO2 levels go down. This is perhaps the current situation.
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"A very high CO2 measurement is found after a decade of reduction in overall temperature."
Riiight, yes global warming is a hoax because Bill O'Reilly's toes were cold this Christmas season.
Re:Why not? This proves Warmists are wrong. (Score:5, Informative)
A very high CO2 measurement is found after a decade of reduction in overall temperature.
Where did you get that "fact"? The last decade had the highest average global temperatures on record.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly_1880-2012.svg [wikipedia.org]
If you can't even get a simple quantitative *fact* like that right, why would anyone listen to any of your *opinions*?
And if you actually RTFA it's not about just the last decade, they have over 50 years of data showing a rise in both CO2 and ave global temperature.
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"You also sound like an idiot."
So wait, I am the idiot for siding with scientific consensus, while YOU are not an idiot... because you believe that the connection between rising temperature and human activity aren't real... because the Sun will die in 1 billion years... uuuh i don't know what to say. the stupidity is mind boggling.
Well one of us is right and one of us is the idiot. I've sided with 99% of the scientific community, and you with blowhards and TV pundits.
Gentlemen, place your bets.
Re:queue the denialists! (Score:4, Insightful)
Do you have ANY scientific basis for those statements at ALL? Of course you don't, it was about as fact free as most of the anti-global warming arguments, which is at this point starting to approach the science denial of anti-evolution arguments.
And it doesn't have to cause 100% extinction to be an utter disaster for the human race in the long run, and something we should work to prevent. Rising sea levels, increased weather variability, desertification, deforestation, and changing climate zones (all of which have been linked to human contributions to global warming and other activities) can do huge amounts of damage to many millions of people both directly and indirectly.
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Guess I should have added a /s. Much of what he said is true but I was trying to emphasize that over geological time frames (perhaps 10s or perhaps 100s of millions of years) what we do doesn't matter. What does matter is our, and our childrens lifetimes.
Your last part, the majority of carbon deposits, including organic, are actually tied up as calcium carbonate. Do you know how much limestone there is?
Previous mass extinction events show life recovers amazingly quick, some 10's of million years will probab
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Your argument may or may not be sound. I'll not even go there. Would you at least admit that digging up chemicals that have been buried for hundreds of millions of years and burning them, en-mass across the entire globe is probably a bad thing?
Re:queue the denialists! (Score:4, Informative)
Do you breathe? Do you drive a car? Do you make s'mores? If so, get in line because you are no more part of the solution than a "denier".
Of these three activities, only the second is not carbon neutral. And yes, I bike to work every day.
Re: queue the denialists! (Score:2)
Veganism has a large carbon footprint on the backend
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... making stuff to satisfy demand from people like you.
Dupe (Score:5, Informative)
Dupe [slashdot.org].
NOT Dupe (Score:4, Informative)
Actually this is a follow-up :
2013-05-05 : "individual observations [...] have exceeded 400 parts per million" "The daily average observation has crept above 399 ppm" "the daily observation will break the 400 ppm milestone within a few days"
2013-05-09 : "the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide [...] surpassed 400 parts per million"
Of course, Soulskill should have referenced timothy, they were obviously aiming for the dupe, but new data arrived in the meantime.
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400, after all, is just an integer with no chemical significance
That's sort of a weird criticism. They aren't saying that their instruments are measuring 400. They aren't out there measuring integers. The measurement is 400 parts of CO2 per million parts of air. That's what the reading is, that's the chemical significance. The significant fact of that measurement is that it's the highest one they've ever recorded. There's plenty to discuss about this without resorting to some sort of weird misdirection tactic that 400 is just an integer.
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And they've gotten a new highest one almost much every year since they started in 1958. I don't know if it's "significant", but it's not unexpected. The 400 is pretty much arbitrary.
Mauna Loa info... (Score:2)
The summary seemed to lead in a specific direction - the 'for comparison' referring to 800k years isn't based on info from other types of measurements, pre-1958 at that site.
Interesting bits from the Mauna Loa wiki [wikipedia.org]
- It's a volcano
- It's been erupting for at least 700k years
- It may have emerged above sea level 400k years ago
- Oldest dated rocks are less than 200k years old
- It's drifting away from the hotspot and will go extinct in the next 500k=1m years
- It erupted last from Mar-Apr of 1984
- Atmosphere obs
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Really? How?
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It wasn't in the wiki, but Jah-Wren Ryel [slashdot.org] posted this link above that seemed to have an ok explanation of their methodology. [nasa.gov]
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Maybe this story has some insight into the process - Climate scientists accused of 'manipulating global warming data' [telegraph.co.uk] (from 2009)
Or it our fondness for beef... (Score:4, Informative)
No less an authority than the United Nations pins a full 9% of all human-related CO2 production on cows, but it's worse than that:
Source: Rearing cattle produces more greenhouse gases than driving cars, UN report warns [un.org]
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Or it our fondness for beef...
Yes please, we blame it on the cows and not the people.
Now we just have to kill all the cows and livestock, then i can use all my fossil fuels until I have none left.
Because what we really need in this debate is more excusses.
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Very interesting, but I'm having a hard time making sense of the numbers - not an expert. All the figures stated are relative, and not always relative to each other. What I would like to know: what percentage of the combined global warming potential (or CO2 equivalent) of all greenhouse gases can be attributed to livestock? Not in % of methane, % of CO2, % compared to transit pollution, etc.
I did try to find that information in the source you linked, but failed. I also downloaded the "full report" from 2
Billions in harms way? (Score:2)
Are climate scientists really the best people to decide what to go about global climate change? They study the effects and may be able to predict things like rise in temperature, oven levels, ocean acidity and things like that, but they only solution they seem to propose is that we stop emitting carbon dioxide. Isn't it possible that other lifestyle changes could m
Insanity (Score:2)
Am I the only person worried about the macadamia nuts?
um... (Score:2)
Am I the only one that thinks taking CO2 concentration measurements near one of the most active volcanic regions in the world is not such a good idea? Not saying the measurements are wrong, it just seems like they could have picked a better spot...
opportunity is knocking (Score:2)
Point is -- we need more medical marijuana and industrial hemp to suck up the extra CO2 from the atmosphere. Hemp and algae are the best ways to remove CO2 from the air. And unless you know of someway to get high off algae, I say let's go with reefer.
It's all in the perspective (Score:2)
I don't think 'unprecedented' means what you think (Score:2)
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/08_Beck-2.pdf [icecap.us] (from 2008)
"The record clearly demonstrates that [CO2 levels were] significantly higher than usually reported for the Last [Glacial] Termination, with levels of up to ~425 ppm about 12,750 years ago, which exceeds the present CO2 concentration of 395 ppm."
This explains thoroughly that
a) it's fundamentally a fallacy to compare Vostok data with Mauna Loa CO2 results (from 3000+ m altitude), and
b) that CO2 values frequently exceeded 400 in both this and the last ce
No thought as to population either? (Score:3)
Hello? Seven BILLION people?
And enough livestock to actually feed a good chunk of them?
Hell, the planetary population only two billion in something like 1925?
Yet we've nearly quadrupled population in the last 90 years?
Roughly half of which live in central and eastern Asia? Countries where their pollution output would shame early 20th century industrialists?
Yeah, fossil fuel has a good deal to do with it. But let's not pretend the sheer mass of humanity itself isn't contributing greatly to increased CO2.
No one ever mentions.... (Score:3)
Not saying fossil fuels aren't contributing, but surely the population issue has to be a contributing factor too.
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Are you familiar with the concept of a megabyte, and how many bytes that is?
Re:Megayears? (Score:5, Funny)
Kinda, so is it 3,145,728 years, 3,000,000 years, or the bastard 3,072,000?
Which contributes more to global warming, Memory or Storage?
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Re:CO2 at an active volcano? Who wudda thot? (Score:4, Informative)
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a better baseline than doing it in a city where local emissions may influence
so instead do it next to a volcano?
:)
Just kidding, the juxtaposition just sounds hilarious
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Just so you know: volcanos emit CO2. They're likely the primary source of "natural" CO2 emission long-term (as if mankind was somehow distinct from nature). A station on top of a large and occasionally-active volcano does seem like an odd choice for a baseline, without knowing more about it.
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They have multiple stations, including some very close to active volcanic activity for baselines. The core results aren't impacted by the regions volcanic activities.
As for global warming, we aren't going to stop burning the remains of life from the past, so it goes. I don't have a position or a "belief", it seems irrelevant to me given humanity's approach to energy.
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Baseline is the wrong word, I meant sample contamination.
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That's the same thing that I thought. The CO2 at Mammoth Mountain here in California has been so high it's killing trees. It's all volcanic too.
Re:CO2 at an active volcano? Who wudda thot? (Score:5, Informative)
> So this seems like a silly place to consider as a steady-state CO standard.
If you lived on the volcano, you'd know better. Wind direction is very consistent and it is precisely because the volcano is so large that contamination is rare - it only comes out of the vents and those are few and far between.
How do scientists know that Mauna Loa's volcanic emissions don't affect the carbon dioxide data collected there? [nasa.gov]
Re:CO2 at an active volcano? Who wudda thot? (Score:5, Informative)
Fortunately for science the Mauna Loa readings are in good agreement with those taken at hundreds of other sites around the globe.
Here's a great animation from NOAA showing global CO2 distribution and putting recent changes in the context of the last million years or so. It takes a few minutes to watch, but it's worth seeing to the end, in my opinion.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html [noaa.gov]
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The annual cycle in CO2 is due to springtime uptake of carbon by plants and autumn release of CO2 as leaves fall and photosynthesis shuts down. The paleoclimatic delay between temperature and CO2 concentrations is characteristic of a positive feedback in the system.
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I was once at
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I think you'll find it to be much easier and just as effective to get people to stop breeding.
Re: Stop breathing (Score:5, Funny)
This is /., so mission accomplished.
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You do realize that to get people to stop or actually slow down breeding means making their life better while genocide means the opposite? Fact, well off, educated people, especially women with access to effective birth control, breed less which is the reason that every developed country has (ignoring immigration) negative population growth and even the States barely has positive growth.
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An educated middle class family in the Third World is going to eat meat several times a week, cooked on
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Stop breathing. It is the only way to keep the CO2 from rising...
You first. And keep on holding it. When your vision starts to go and you feel like you are about to pass out, that means it's working. If you want to ensure you stop breathing, might I suggest you tie yourself to the bottom of the deep end of the nearest pool.
In the mean time, I'll concentrate on keeping the carbon that has been safely stored in the ground for millions of years, in the ground... instead of wasting my time with silly, not well thought out rebuttals that focus on carbon that is already active
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Re:Stop breathing (Score:4, Funny)
or you could just strap a fern to your face
I don't particularly care what her name is, just get her over here!
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Pish Posh, not breathing is old hat. I modified my lungs to work on CO2. I used a weird trick that the UN Hates! Click Here to find out More and vote if we should impeach Obama for Benghazi and Being a Muslim Terrorist while working from home! You'll save thousands! I know I did.
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This brings to mind my favorite George Orwell quote, from his book, "A Clergyman's Daughter:"
"She came up against it all day long--that vague, blank disbelief so common in illiterate people, against which all argument is powerless."
Sums it up for many contemporary public debates, don't you think?
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The 800,000 year level comes from testing of air pockets locked in glacial ice. Seriously, is it that hard to try and understand something before speaking stupid things? Jesus, you climate change deniers cannot even grasp the simplest concept of science.
You: 800,000 years that's so long ago where'd you get that "fact" right there?
Scientist: Pockets of air in glacial ice. You know, core samples and crap?
You: Har har har, ice, right. Come get your 800,000 year old sample from my freezer. High FIVE!
Damn, scien
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According to TFA, above 400ppm.
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Ah but it is the gas the got trapped during the freezing process. CO2 is heavier than air, and in an area where it is cold enough to take gas CO2 and freeze it what percentage of that CO2 was from the overall air, and how big of an air sample did that Co2 fall from?
How do you determine the methodology to figure it out? It won't be exact proportions because the air itself will be freezing and falling the CO2 to the ground.
It isn't that I don't think humans are screwing up their planet, I simply question t
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March 6, 2013: As Carbon Dioxide Levels Continue To Rise, Global Temperatures Are Not Following Suit [forbes.com]
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Actually it's not Carbon 14 they're measuring. It's the ratio of Carbon 12 to Carbon 13. Both are stable as compared to the radioactive C14. Fossil fuels have a lower level of C13 than the atmosphere in general because photosynthesis prefers the lighter C12 atom. When we burn fossil fuels it dilutes the C13 in the atmosphere and changes the ratio.
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Or cows... Or deforestation... or maybe it's just a peak in a cycle that has a period somewhat longer than our history of direct measurements shows us...
I find it interesting that we only have direct measurements for about 60 years, but these folks are supremely confident that they know the CO2 level over the past 800,000+ years...
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Re:Excuse me (Score:4, Informative)
It must interfere with your invincible ignorance field. But do try to keep up Ok?
Re: Geological instants happen (Score:2)
Yeah, and you wanna comment on how things go for the life during those events? Your first example was likely a major extinction event, and a volcanic eruption 70k years ago nearly wiped out humans [wikipedia.org]
10,000 ppm in the Paleozoic (Score:2)
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And the reason they measure on top of a spewing volcano?
By "spewing volcano", do you mean the volcano which last erupted in 1984 and which is home to many permanent science installations?
Re:The CO2 change IS NOT 40%! (Score:5, Informative)
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mbeckman: ..."What emboldens warmist scientists and modellers, beyond institutional backing and the advantages of groupthink, is the fact that the atmosphere’s uniform CO2 concentration is easy to work with – both in modelling and conceptually – but they should aquire humility before indulging their CO2 fetish and advancing their tenuous doomsday predictions given geoscience’s overwhelming ignorance about climate feedbacks."
Wow, that post is just so full of derp, that I am at a loss as to where to begin.
Let's see, paragraph 2, "Correlations are observed, but they do not prove causation... That is, "CO2 and climate temperature change show correlations, but not cause and effect."
Wow. OK, so I downloaded and read the linked PDF article. First-off, it is not published in a peer-reviewed journal, or even as a conference-proceedings article (which are typically not peer-reviewed). It was posted on his blog. Note that hi
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Excellent question. Let's pretend for a moment that we accept that the last time we were at 400ppm was millions of years ago, and it was significantly hotter then. Pretend for a moment that indeed, were we to have those same temperatures today, it would be apocalyptic.
But it's not as hot as it was then.
So what's the disconnect? It's like wearing your favorite blue jeans in high school, and getting into a car accident, and then fifty years later, putting on those same jeans, and worrying all day that you'
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Probably not that much relief. The optimal level for plants appears to be in the 1,000 to 2,000 ppm range. Thus 400 ppm is "too low" and still close to the 200 ppm lower limit. For animals, including humans, "too high", would appear to be greater than 5,000 ppm.
Yet there are those prediction ecological disaster at more than an order of magnitude lower.