QuakeFinder: Is It Possible To Reliably Predict Earthquakes? 59
massivepanic writes "Unlike most natural disasters, earthquakes strike without warning. Between large quakes and resulting tsunamis, millions of lives have been lost because science has been unable to provide accurate, useful earthquake predictions. Stellar Solutions' QuakeFinder Division hopes it can develop the tools to dramatically reduce this loss of life. Its network of over 100 sophisticated sensor stations has detected patterns of electromagnetic pulses several days before a number of different earthquakes, moving the possibility of earthquake prediction closer to reality."
answer: (Score:1)
no
Of course we can, in theory. (Score:2)
Didn't we just get an articel yesterday about some species of ant whose behaviour reliably changes a day in advance of a magnitude 2 or greater quake? Obviously *something* is happeneing that they can detect, and if nothing else we might be able to transplant the ants to risk-prone areas and monitor their behavior. Better still if we could figure out what they're detecting and create our own sensor networks we might be able to improve detection rates and/or times even further.
One recommendation (Score:1)
It does not matter how reliable this technology is, I just hope they don't deploy it in Italy.
Is It Possible To Reliably Predict Earthquakes? (Score:2)
Yes.
With any kind of accuracy? Mmmm. No.
We are getting pretty good at predicting where they can happen, though.
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I use QuakeSpy (Score:5, Funny)
Oh, so this article submission is NOT a repeat from 1997?
Yay, Quakefinder (Score:2)
Oh. Well. I'll just go in a corner and look for my quake I discs...
Red Wood Ants (Score:1)
http://io9.com/can-ants-predict-earthquakes-472681784
for example
Apply webcam and simple pattern recognition algo and presto.
preemptiv (Score:1)
"First, it’s important to understand the difference between true earthquake prediction and the simpler idea of earthquake alerts."
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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/can-ants-predict-when-an-earth/10211815 [accuweather.com] as well.
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Yes, the only flaw is that said ants only live in a tiny fraction of the world where quakes are a threat.
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They're small, poor, and can't vote. Pick the little buggers up, put them in a tank, and put the tank in your quake zone.
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Are we still talking about the ants here or is this some sort of scheme to use migrant workers to clean up after a quake?
Why yes, you can predict earthquakes. (Score:2)
https://www.google.com/#safe=off&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=animals%20flee%20before%20earthquake&oq=&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.45175338,d.cGE&fp=144025172efe81&biw=1155&bih=844&pf=p&pdl=300 [google.com]
You will find some animals flee before earthquakes, some act peculiar, as in, will be afraid or seemingly barking for hours before they hit.
I'm sure you wanted a more scientific answer, but sorry, while the scientist do great stuff, predicting shit that ha
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You will find some animals flee before earthquakes, some act peculiar, as in, will be afraid or seemingly barking for hours before they hit.
No you won't. You will find the opposite: Several have experiments have found no correlation between animal behavior and upcoming earthquakes. No experiments have found a correlation. There is a good summary here: Earthquake prediction - Animal behavior [wikipedia.org].
This just an old wives tale based on a few anecdotes. There is no evidence that animals can predict earthquakes. How could they? Unless you believe that animals have some ESP that science isn't aware of, they would have to be relying on some sort of i
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This just an old wives tale based on a few anecdotes. There is no evidence that animals can predict earthquakes. How could they?
The only conjecture I heard which didn't sound totally "out there" was that the animals sensed the changes in the electric field caused by the piezoelectric effect due to stress changes in the rocks before an earthquake.
Something along those lines at least.
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This just an old wives tale based on a few anecdotes. There is no evidence that animals can predict earthquakes. How could they?
The only conjecture I heard which didn't sound totally "out there" was that the animals sensed the changes in the electric field caused by the piezoelectric effect due to stress changes in the rocks before an earthquake.
Something along those lines at least.
If this conjecture was true:
1. We would be able to detect the electric field changes with instruments.
2. Animals would respond to artificial experimental changes to the electric field. Fish do respond, but I haven't heard of them predicting earthquakes.
3. Someone would have used animal behavior to actually predict an earthquake rather than just making after-the-fact statements.
So while it is possible that an electric field is involved, Occam's Razor [wikipedia.org] says that it is all a bunch of nonsense.
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1. We can. google Earthquake lights. Light is a valid member of the electromagnetic spectrum. or be lazy, and try this link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y196J86YrRU [youtube.com]
2. Animals do respond to various electromagnetic changes. That doesn't mean that animals that are good earthquake predictors are necessarily responding to those changes-- there are many others that they could be responding to others. There are noises, gas releases, earthquake clouds, and other such signs of an imminent (read ongoing, but not
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1. We can. google Earthquake lights.
No we can't. Earthquake lights [wikipedia.org] have only been observed while the earthquake is occuring. Claiming they can predict earthquakes is like saying that violent shaking of the ground can predict earthquakes.
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The holy grail of earthquake prediction is not predicting what will happen next year: it is predicting when one is already coming with enough warning to save lives.
In another post on this story, I noted that prediction is about forecasting what is actually an already-occurring event, that we just haven't noticed yet.
In line with that, the proposed California early-warning system is a very feasible plan, just way too expensive for my taste.
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Do you know what the prefix pre means? It means before, and dict means say. It's therefore logically impossible to predict (say before) something which is already happening.
That would be condicting, which doesn't even exist.
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Let me ask you: if you have an otto cycle engine rigged up with all kinds of sensors, and you start it up and run it for 40 minute under constant load, can you predict the characteristics of the next full cycle?
You can, though it hasn't happened yet, because the process isealready underway. In the same way, the earthquakes that accompany a volcanic eruption are absolutely predictable, even though --and because--the process is already underway. For example, if you see that the depth of certain shocks is dec
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What's this alleged signal made of? Magitrons? Has someone dissected an ant and found a mysterious organ that doesn't apparently do anything?
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Actually, "predicting shit that happens" is the only thing that scientists do. The problem is, the prediction must be based on models that are in turn based on measurable and reproducible observations. This means that your anecdotal "animals flee before earthquake" is out, unless you can prove that a certain species will exhibit a certain measurable behavior (i.e. "flee", but how far? Do they flee in the direction of the epicenter or away from it?) with a given certainty at a certain time-point before the q
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And you'll have to show that there is not only just a correlation, but also that the animal exhibits the behavior because of the earthquake itself.
You are wrong. If all you are trying to do is predict earthquakes correlation is enough. Just like the "canary-in-the-coal-mine" was an effective way to measure CO2 and/or methane levels even if we didn't quite understand the mechanisms by which it works from the get go.
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Well, you got me. I'm a theoretician. Of course you start with the correlation, but I like getting to the bottom of things, if I can.
# Brave Sir Robin ran towards... (Score:2)
My understanding is that flee sort of implies away, but I could be wrong. Perhaps that's what happened to the dinosaurs.
Since you asked the question, (Score:1)
Making a mighty big assumptiom (Score:2, Funny)
Yes... (Score:2)
It's possible. That's why six scientists were jailed for manslaughter after failing to predict an earthquake.
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/10/23/world/europe/italy-quake-scientists-guilty [cnn.com]
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That Italian court is such utter /bullshit/. What is the motivation to enter seismology studying earthquake prediction? Great pay? Nope. Recognition? Not really (no Nobel Prizes), at least not the kind you'd want. And with austerity, you're not going to get stable employment, either. When scientists are crucified for not being exactly right, all there is is downside, the risk of being accused of manslaughter if you say what you think. Congratulations, Italy, you might as well be in the Middle Ages.
I'd under
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My memory was that their offense was --for economic reasons--silencing a scientist who was publishing that suddenly increased rates of radon release in the region indicated the probability of a large quake in the near future.
Oh, and the scientists who were charged were those who had the specific job of earthquake preparedness.
That said, I suspect a major part of their fault was not in caring too much about tourist dollars, but rather in their knee-jerk reaction that earthquakes can't be predicted, therefore
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And we have the answer: Darwinian Reduction.
Every scientist is obligated (at gunpoint if necessary... lives are at stake here!) to predict the next earthquake. Time, place, and intensity.
All the ones who predict incorrectly are imprisoned.
Repeat with all the remaining ones.
I figure after two or three rounds you'll have some damn good earthquake predictors out and about. Keep them close and remind them periodically about their former colleagues entertaining "Bubbah" back in the klink, by way of encouragement
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It's possible. That's why six scientists were jailed for manslaughter after failing to predict an earthquake. http://edition.cnn.com/2012/10/23/world/europe/italy-quake-scientists-guilty [cnn.com]
They did not go to jail because they failed to predict an earthquake. They went to jail because they stated there would not be an earthquake in order to discredit somebody who claimed he had a system for predicting earthquakes. If they had stuck to procedure and official press releases, they'd have been fine and some quack would have a following and some new time, but they wanted to discredit the other guy so much they held and unofficial news conference. While starting off ok, they quickly devolved into ma
Unwise ideas... (Score:4, Insightful)
I wouldn't ever claim to be able to accurately predict earthquakes even if I knew I could. To do so is to also claim responsibility.
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It's easy! (Score:3)
Quake (Score:2)
History of failure (Score:2)
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Did anyone else read "quakefinder" and think somet (Score:2)
like discovering network multiplayer games of one of the more popular trilogies of first person shooters?
What about ... (Score:2)