One In Eight Chance of a Financially Catastrophic Solar Storm By 2020 337
An anonymous reader writes "A privately employed solar scientist named Pete Riley estimates there's a 12 percent chance of a massive solar storm comparable to the Carrington Event in 1859 which resulted in breathtaking aurorae across the United States and other temperate regions of the globe. The electromagnetic surge from the 1859 event caused failures of telegraph systems across Europe and North America. A similar storm today could knock out power grids, GPS and communication satellites, data centers, transportation systems, and building and plumbing infrastructures and wreak $1 trillion or more of economic damage in the first year alone, according to a 2008 report from the National Academy of Sciences."
What are the chances (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:What are the chances (Score:5, Informative)
that it will happen in 2012?
12,5%
Re:What are the chances (Score:5, Funny)
Let me just check my Mayan calendar...
Oh yes, there it is.
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Let me just check my Mayan calendar...
Oh yes, there it is.
Is this a leap year?
Re:What are the chances (Score:5, Funny)
Let me just check my Mayan calendar...
Oh yes, there it is.
Is this a leap year?
Why? Do leap years make you jumpy?
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7/8, of course.
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Higher than usual as 2012 is the year of solar maximum.
Actually we don't know if it is the solar maximum... The sun is very periodic but it is still a bit unpredictable as to when exactly the periods start and stop. The only way to know is if in 2013 it shows the telltale slowdown of the decline cycle (that is, if we are still here...)
Re:What are the chances (Score:5, Insightful)
Actually we don't know if it is the solar maximum... The sun is very periodic but it is still a bit unpredictable as to when exactly the periods start and stop. The only way to know is if in 2013 it shows the telltale slowdown of the decline cycle (that is, if we are still here...)
Interesting, this is the same strategy employed by economists. It seems most of them won't recognize an economic bubble when they're in one... but after the "telltale slowdown" is becomes extremely obvious in hind-sight.
Re:What are the chances (Score:5, Insightful)
Which is strange, because I knew we were in a bubble while it was going on. When the houses around me started selling for $150,000 more than I bought mine for in a matter of a couple years, with no real underlying changes to the economy, it was pretty darn obvious there was a bubble.
Economists aren't that dumb, they're either being hopelessly optimistic that economics has suddenly discovered perpetual motion, or they were just keeping their mouths shut lest they be the guy who went down in history as the one popping the bubble and starting the inevitable recession.
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Or possibly:
(c) Their bosses are telling them to shut up and play nice because there are bets currently on the table.
(d) The media mostly only reports the "up, up, up" stories and not the serious critics.
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IIRC there actually is a psychological, medically acknowledged, syndrome that has to do
with giving up on prosperous concepts/enterprises. In layman's terms it describes optimism
in a more elaborate language, though it also describes gambler's addiction at some point.
Can't remember where I have read about it though..
Re:What are the chances (Score:5, Insightful)
IIRC there actually is a psychological, medically acknowledged, syndrome that has to do
with giving up on prosperous concepts/enterprises. In layman's terms it describes optimism
in a more elaborate language, though it also describes gambler's addiction at some point.
Can't remember where I have read about it though..
It could have been the 150 year old book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" which basically cited the many self-induced economic bubbles/busts up to that point in history, and has been a blueprint for every one of them since. What's interesting is how every time the pattern repeats we swear that a) we didn't "really" see it coming with enough foresight to stop it and that b) we are sure as hell never going to let it happen again. Those two complete fallacies are the cornerstone of our tragic existence.
Re:What are the chances (Score:4, Insightful)
Interesting, this is the same strategy employed by economists.
Is it really that surprising when economists (at least the ones that speak in public and which we see) are merely the modern version of astrologists, soothsayers, and chicken entrails readers? The vast majority of them are paid to make shit up in a way that favors their patron. Every government out there has a staff of them on hand for rationalizing the policy of the day.
It's their job to sell the current propaganda, until that position becomes too untenable to retain credibility.
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The Economist talked about a housing bubble in 2004. They showed that, worldwide house prices were about twice what is normally justified by rentals, and predicted that if nothing else happened, it would take 14 years for rents to catch up - so don't expect your house to increase in value for that long. Of course then the money-pumpers got involved and we all know what happened next.
What's much more important is... (Score:5, Interesting)
... Can it knock out out my PC and if so how can I protect it?
Re:What's much more important is... (Score:5, Funny)
you must build... an ark, with two of every device
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you must build... an ark, with two of every device
I've heard that one of each Apple device will do.
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Re:What's much more important is... (Score:5, Funny)
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Just need two bits, a true and a false. From that, you can rebuild everything.
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But how will I prevent my Androids trying to attack my Apples? Surely if you put two androids and two apples on the same ark the androids will attempt to eat the apples!
Ding....NOAH! (Score:3)
What?
How long can you tread EM waves?
Re:What's much more important is... (Score:4, Funny)
you must build... an ark, with two of every device
I assume it has to be an arc-proof ark?
Re:What's much more important is... (Score:5, Insightful)
Make multiple backups of everything you care about, using a mix of different media types. Store your backups in geographically diverse locations, in hardened containers, preferably some of them subterranean. Of course, you're already doing that anyhow, right? Past that, your PC becomes significantly less useful if major communication grids are down/damaged, at least if you like the Internet.
Re:What's much more important is... (Score:5, Insightful)
Store your backups in geographically diverse locations, in hardened containers, preferably some of them subterranean. Of course, you're already doing that anyhow, right?
Storing back-ups in hardened containers in subterranean bunkers? No, I'm not, and somehow I doubt most other people here are either.
Backing things up safely, securely and frequently is surprisingly hard for individuals to do given all the technical wonders we have in the world today.
(In case anyone's knee is jerking, please read the actual terms and check the actual reliability stats of any Internet-based back-up service you're about to recommend before you post it. Chances are, you'll never make the post.)
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The Problem with Trying to Prepare for This ... (Score:3)
... Can it knock out out my PC and if so how can I protect it?
It's sort of a slippery slope toward insanity [youtube.com] ...
Re:What's much more important is... (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes.
Turn it off when you're not using it and disconnect it from power and communications (eg disconnect the power cord and network cable). Since if something Bad Happened, it's likely going to come in through the AC or in through the DSL/Cable/Sat modem - same as any other power surge.
In these storms, what happens is that long lines (data and power transmission) resonate more or less with the "fun" and so you get powerful AC currents induced into them. The smaller wires in your peripherals and inside the computer are too small (so they resonate too high frequency) and so shouldn't be directly vulnerable. It's those large AC voltages coming in from those long lines that release the magic smoke.
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Yep. Keep in mind we usually know such a storm is coming with a day or so of notice - usually the solar ejecta is moving far slower than light, so we see the flare before the charged particles affect us.
Re:What's much more important is... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:What's much more important is... (Score:5, Funny)
Screw that, don't buy into this so-called 'conical cosmic ray deflector', which is probably some sort of fraudulent device.
Everyone knows that only Real Brazilian Power Crystals(tm) can actually help with this. Even the FDA would not deny that it is possible in English to have said that these crystals were very efficacious for dealing with solar storms and rheumatism.
By Any Other Name (Score:5, Funny)
So, is "privately employed solar scientist" a euphemism for "crackpot scientist"?
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Well,
"privately employed"
suggests that he is in the employ of some entity which derives income from some source.
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest it is from something that you would want to alleviate your share of the potential trillion dollar damage bill.
If only :) (Score:2, Insightful)
Actually a 1T$ investment to rebuild all the electrical infrastructure would be just great both for the infrastructure AND for the economy.
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if you believe the broken window fallacy.
I somehow can't believe that destroying trillions of dollars worth of real goods/ wealth is going to make us better off. but hey keep listening to the Keynesians. they predicted the crash.... oh wait, they didn't. they explained the crash... Oh wait, they didn't do that either. they have since fixed the crash with the50k plus per American that they prescribed.... oh wait, that didn't work either.
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Well, at least it will give us all something to do :P
Re:If only :) (Score:5, Informative)
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Not to mention how much it would suck for the rest of the economy to not have electricity for a few years; and not to mention how hard it is to rebuild all that stuff when you don't have electricity.
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Plumbing? (Score:3)
Has plumbing really become dependent on electronic control systems? Or does this phenomenon somehow affect gravity too?
Re:Plumbing? (Score:5, Interesting)
Has plumbing really become dependent on electronic control systems? Or does this phenomenon somehow affect gravity too?
Plumbing consists of pipes running for long distances in straight lines (i.e. antennas). Magnetic storms can cause currents to run through these pipes resulting in electrical damage. In addition, for buried pipes, the magnetic storm can cause their relative voltage to shift, resulting in massive corrosion. This is of particular concern with respect to oil and gas pipelines.
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Rivers will still flow, if that's what you are talking about. And if you have an elevated storage tank or around your house, you'll be alright for a while. But municipal water systems require electrical power to clean water, pressurize the pipe network, operate distribution valves, and treat sewage. Out in the boonies most folks have a well, which generally requires electricity, too.
Re:Plumbing? (Score:5, Funny)
I would think that electronically controlled sewage treatment plants are at risk. Most people don't think about where their poo goes, but once it starts going nowhere, it will pile up very quick for communities.
That's alright, I live on top of a hill.
Re:Plumbing? (Score:4, Funny)
I would think that electronically controlled sewage treatment plants are at risk. Most people don't think about where their poo goes, but once it starts going nowhere, it will pile up very quick for communities.
That would make this hypothetical event a literal shitstorm.
With a bit of luck... (Score:5, Funny)
Maybe they should save us with Gamemaker. (Score:3, Insightful)
Using Gamemaker, they can put off the problem with its extreme slowness.
If it WERE true (Score:4, Funny)
I would retitle this submission "One in twenty chance of naturally-caused
economic stimulus by 2020".
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You should ask Japan how effective the "economic stimulus" from their earthquake/tsunami has been working out for them. Or ask Thailand about their floods. Or ask Florida about how much good old Hurricane Andrew pumped up their economy.
I mean, if your post were modded Funny instead of Insightful that would be one thing...
Be Prepared... (Score:5, Funny)
Print out your porn.
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Bonus points: if the shit really hits the fan, the concubine could serve as an emergency food source.
As bait. Really. Not what you're thinking, you sick freak! :P
A lot of confusion. (Score:5, Informative)
I think a lot of people are very confused.
This won't directly break your car or your computer. It affects long runs of conductive cable.
It will break power distribution and telecom. It might break your computer if it's plugged in, but absolutely will not break your computer if it is not plugged in. Likewise with cars. If you own an electric car, just hope that it's unplugged when this happens.
Re:A lot of confusion. (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:A lot of confusion. (Score:5, Informative)
Nope - because satellites don't get all the protections of being in the atmosphere. They get raw solar radiation.
Down here in the dirt, it's only the (relatively) low frequency stuff that makes it through - and that's the stuff that long runs of wire pick up (or any long conductor - metallic piping could potentially pick it up too)
If they are lower in orbit, they are still at risk - since the EM of the Earth actually focuses the incoming radiation into bands/layers that the satellite might pass through. Think "ant under a magnifying glass".
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A solar flare is not an EMP. It would only take out things that have long stretches of conductive material, like the power lines.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse
"The E3 component is very different from the other two major components of nuclear EMP. The E3 component of the pulse is a very slow pulse, lasting tens to hundreds of seconds, that is caused by the nuclear detonation heaving the Earth's magnetic field out of the way, followed by the restoration of the magnetic field to its natural place. The E3 component has similarities to a geomagnetic storm caused by a very severe solar flare. Like a geomagnetic storm, E
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Well, gosh, I guess that's alright then. I mean, who in this day and age needs the power distribution and telecom networks.
Re:A lot of confusion. (Score:5, Interesting)
You're going to get some odd waveforms coming in - the UPS will only save you if it isolates the load instead of just switches to a battery. The surge protector isn't going to help much. Those are meant to suppress "lengthy" transients and overvolts, quick spikes can still break shit but not pop the protector.
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Forgive me, but... (Score:2)
I'm almost as tired of hearing this as I am of hearing the constant "We solved the energy crisis!" stories.
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just like all the other doomsayers, one time they might actually get it right by pure chance and then everyone will have forgotten about all the other times they were wrong.
Re:Forgive me, but... (Score:4, Informative)
The difference is that this sort of thing has happened before [wikipedia.org], and not that long ago (1859).
"Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases even shocking telegraph operators. Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire."
The world was much less wired in 1859 than it is today. At a minimum, the power grid would be fried for months. I certainly wouldn't want to live somewhere like the Southwest part of the US, where if the power is gone you can't get water and the gas pumps stop working, so you can't go somewhere else.
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BS Flag (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:BS Flag (Score:4, Informative)
There was an event in the 1920's (less than the 1859 event) and another in the 1990's (less than the 1920's event but it took down pieces of the Quebec grid). Doesn't do anything to help measure the frequency of the 1859 level events. Also, it kind of doesn't matter, since power facilities like the one I work at are required to prepare for things like the "maximum possible flood" not a "500 year flood". If your sample set has at least one of these, and we can't quantify it to be say less than a 1 in 10000 - and we certainly can't - then we should be working on this problem. Not as if the sky is falling, but we've been working on changing out some stuff in my plant for a decade, so we definitely should get on it, since remediation is going to take a long time, and the consequences would be very bad.
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Also, it kind of doesn't matter, since power facilities like the one I work at are required to prepare for things like the "maximum possible flood" not a "500 year flood".
Noah could have saved himself a lot of trouble by just crashing at your facility instead of building an ark.
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Repent, repent! (Score:2)
Bank, credit card? (Score:2)
So do our financial institutions take measures to keep our finance data safe?
Because if we are really talking about every single HDD on earth being destroyed normal data protection techniques are not going to work.
And if that actually happened I don't think civilization would survive.
It's the hollywood version! (Score:2)
because the aliens always attack new york first!
Looking on the bright side (Score:2)
perhaps the Amish will survive (Score:4, Interesting)
During this show I thought about the "2012 problem". If any one would survive a shutdowns of electricity and electronics, these people will However, these people are pacifists an might not do well with armed bands that would arise in the apocalypse.
Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:5, Informative)
Your car is already an electromechanical device. EMP would disable modern gasoline vehicles just as surely as it would electric vehicles.
Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:5, Insightful)
Your car is already an electromechanical device. EMP would disable modern gasoline vehicles just as surely as it would electric vehicles.
Which is a big part of the reason I love my old, beat up, carburated pickup.
Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:5, Interesting)
There's a lot to be said for contact breaker ignition. Of course, diesels are even better. I've driven a diesel car with no functioning electrical system of any kind (although I don't recommend it due to the absence of brake lights).
The scariest part was getting it started. Yes, sure, it'll push start but until the engine has been running for 15 seconds (big heavy old Citroen CX 25DTR Turbo) there is no hydraulic pressure for the steering or braking system... Better hope the handbrake will stop it before the back wall of the yard does!
Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:5, Informative)
Solar flare != EMP
While the power grid would be knocked out by a massive solar flare, your electric car would be just fine. Unless it happened to be plugged in when the power grid was fried...
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No, it wouldn't. Read X0563511's post one down for an explanation of why.
Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:5, Informative)
Good thing this storm isn't an EMP effect.
What happens is you get large induced currents/voltages in transmission lines (power, cable etc) which smoke things connected to them. This happens because they resonate with the solar radiation.
Small shit like the wires and traces inside of your car resonates at far too high a frequency for that to happen.
As for GPS etc - those die because they are in orbit, either outside the majority of the earth's EM field's protection - or their path happens to make that same protection their death-sentence as it tends to concentrate the radiation into distinct bands/layers.
The sun would still be the sun, and the GPS satellite would be the ant. The earth's EM field would be the magnifying glass. Poof.
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Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:5, Informative)
Yes, but such a tiny amount that it shouldn't cause trouble.
You run into issues when they are resonant (or near resonant) because that allows standing waves to form - and the stuff that makes it in through the magnetosphere is the lower frequency (longer wavelength) stuff.
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Your forgetting what starts your car engine (battery)
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A petrol engine needs a little charge in the battery for the ignition to run. Not that it matters, solar effects aren't going to fry any cars. They don't work like that.
Very little, though. I've push-started petrol cars with batteries flatter than pancakes. I suspect the alternator provides a bit of oomph as well once you pop the clutch.
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Wouldn't the amount of electronics in today's cars render them vulnerable as well?
Or do we only have to worry about EMP in that regard?
Either way, the production and transport of gasoline will be impacted as well, obviously. I wouldn't be surprised if the government nationalized all the gasoline reserves just to make sure they've got enough to power the Humvees that would surely be dispersed all over the United States in this scenario. I imagine Martial Law would be declared nationally pretty soon after a
Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:4, Informative)
Solar storms do not resemble EMPs. [slashdot.org]
But, like you said - all the other infrastructure that would release magic smoke will certainly cause more than enough trouble.
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Re:convert to electric, quick! (Score:4, Informative)
Solar storms do not resemble EMPs. [slashdot.org]
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Too bad they stuck computers in all of the gasoline cars, non of them work after an emp pulse ether.
Well, there is also a good chance that gasoline, not solar outbursts, will be the worst problem in 2020.
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I could be wrong (I wasn't ever a huge fan of studying physics) but from my basic engineering physics class, wouldn't a Faraday cage block this?
Yeah, that's what most hardening entails. For example,your hard drive is encased fully by metal, but that little circuit board underneath it isn't. Another thing that I have no way of speculating on is just how much energy will be raining down, it could just vaporize the Faraday cage if there's enough energy behind it. That would be intense for sure.
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"This kind of event is going to knock anything out that can conduct electricity. The telegraph lines overloaded and caught fire in 1859. Your data isn't safe, if it's on a hard drive, CD, SSDs, the cloud etc."
Why are CDs on that list? CDs do not use electricity or magnetism.
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This kind of event is going to knock anything out that can conduct electricity. The telegraph lines overloaded and caught fire in 1859. Your data isn't safe, if it's on a hard drive, CD, SSDs, the cloud etc.
CDs conduct electricity?