Climate Panel Says To Prepare For Weird Weather 469
Layzej writes "Extreme weather, such as the 2010 Russian heat wave or the drought in the horn of Africa, will become more frequent and severe as the planet warms, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns in a report released today. Some areas could become 'increasingly marginal as places to live in,' the report concludes. Critics of the report note that 'Governments have in the past considerably weakened the language of IPCC summaries for policymakers,' and that the IPCC process tends to water down even the most obvious conclusions."
Re:For those that dismiss these news as irrelevant (Score:5, Informative)
Past the tipping point (Score:5, Informative)
I think we've past the tipping point already. At the least, I don't think we can change our habits enough to prevent climate change at this point, so...
I think we need to start planning for the aftermath of all of this, and do as much as we can in preparation for those changes. Unfortunately I don't think we will, and all I can see is a lot of people needlessly suffering for it all.
Re:In spite of the data? (Score:4, Informative)
And 10 years has what to do with climate trends? Not much. A recent paper by Santer et. al. calculated the signal (climate) to noise (weather/natural variation) ratio for climate trends. For 10 years the S/N ratio is less than 1. They found it takes 17 years to be sure the signal is greater than the noise.
Re:For those that dismiss these news as irrelevant (Score:5, Informative)
All of those things are true but it's true that there was a record amount of rainfall as well.
Re:Climate change ... is nothing new (Score:5, Informative)
2000 years ago, the Sahara was lush green forest ...
Not even close. From the Wikipedia article on the Sahara [wikipedia.org]:
The modern Sahara, though, is not lush in vegetation, except in the Nile Valley, at a few oases, and in the northern highlands, where Mediterranean plants such as the olive tree are found to grow. The region has been this way since about 4200 years ago.
Before that it was mostly savannah, not forest.
Re:I can see the weirdness (Score:5, Informative)
Your memory is too short, grasshopper: In August of 1955, hurricane Dianne [blish.org] dumped almost double the peak amount of rain (24 inches) on your region as compared to hurricane Irene [lmgtfy.com], and the consequences were likewise notable. And no-one, not even the truest climate change believers, are blaming Hurricane Dianne on CO2. Every once in a while, it is normal for a hurricane to do exactly that -- drop a bunch of water on the NY/PA region. It doesn't mean that we're experiencing climate change. It just means a hurricane followed an inconvenient track, while doing exactly what hurricanes always do. Again.
Re:So (Score:3, Informative)
We don't have a big problem with acid rain any more because of these warnings and following drastic tightening of emission regulations for power plants and other large scale emitters.
The hope is that these worst-case predictions and scenarios for the climate change lead to the required actions to limit further C02 emissions best case or at least prepare to mitigate the effects on things like food and water supply, flooding and storms.
Re:For those that dismiss these news as irrelevant (Score:4, Informative)
Changes in precipitation with climate change [ucar.edu] [PDF] by Kevin Trenberth.
Re:Ah yeah (Score:3, Informative)
First it was "Global Warming", then when it became obvious that wasn't happening it was "Climate Change".
No.
http://ngrams.googlelabs.com/graph?content=global+warming%2Cclimate+change&year_start=1970&year_end=2008&corpus=5&smoothing=3 [googlelabs.com]
Click the little linky thing.
Re:So (Score:5, Informative)
Not really the same thing. The global cooling hypothesis was only in a couple of papers and, unlike global warming, never received wide scientific support. It was however widely (and inaccurately) reported in the popular media.
You can read about it on (where else) wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling [wikipedia.org]
Re:So (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Warms?! (Score:5, Informative)
Last time I ran the numbers on the Tesla roadster, a Tesla powered by 100% coal-derived electricity would be responsible for half the CO2 of a gasoline-powered car getting 30mpg. So, no, battery powered electric cars won't increase CO2 emissions drastically.
Re:So (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Warms?! (Score:5, Informative)
And even if it does break even, it is easier to capture the CO2 at the coal plant than it is at the tailpipe.
Re:2020 (Score:5, Informative)
Data from 1979 ..
Eye witness reports from the 40s and 19th century contradicts that the Arctic is thinning in any way different now compared to then. We even sent scientific expeditions to the arctic to investigate the unusual warming, more than a hundred years ago.
Then it froze right back.
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.
President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817, Minutes of Council, Volume 8. pp.149-153, Royal Society, London. 20th November, 1817
“From an examination of the Greenland captains, it has been found that owing to some convulsions of nature , the sea was more open and more free from compact ice than in any former voyage they ever made: that several ships actually reached the eighty-fourth degree of latitude, in which no ice whatever was found; that for the first time for 400 years, vessels penetrated to the west coast of Greenland, and that they apprehended no obstacle to their even reaching the pole, if it had consisted with their duty to their employers to make the attempt.”
Greenland, the adjacent seas, and the North-west Passage to the Pacific Ocean: illustrated in a voyage to Davis's strait, during the summer of 1817 (Google eBook)
Does this evidence disagree with your conclusion?
Re:2020 (Score:2, Informative)
You've never been to Canada, have you? (Score:4, Informative)
Canada grows a ton of wheat. Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba all have major wheat growing operations (other things too). Some of my cousins are indeed farmers up in Canada. Wheat isn't all that Canada grows, but it is a big crop there.
Re:2020 (Score:2, Informative)
You're cherry-picking the data: http://www.skepticalscience.com/hiding-the-incline-in-sea-level.html [skepticalscience.com]
So, intentional deception, or uncritical parroting of the party line?