100/1 Odds On 'First Contact' Within a Year 309
astroengine writes "After all the kerfuffle of 'Ambassadorgate' — when the UK media went nuts over the rumored promotion of Mazlan Othman to become the UN's first choice as mankind's alien point of contact — it would appear that gamblers saw this as a tip that an alien landing was imminent."
Let me be the first to say... (Score:3, Insightful)
Bullshit.
Re:Let me be the first to say... (Score:5, Funny)
What a waste of an opportunity for a f1rst c0ntact post. Damn, and I even rushed over while the headline was still red!
Re:Let me be the first to say... (Score:4, Funny)
No, it's good. The first reaction of extra terrestrials on earth will be exactly that, i.e. 'Bullshit'.
Re: (Score:2)
And if it's realy true, then those must be some very knowledgeable, but very stupid aliens.
They have zero stealth. So if they came here to fight then we'll most certainly kick their ass (if they have ass, but hey...).
Re: (Score:2)
Honestly, though, I find speculation about this sort of thing to be highly amusing but ultimately pointless. We know essentially nothing about what alien life might look or act like, so you could literally speculate almost anything and have just as much chance of being right a
Re: (Score:2)
If they have atom destroyers then you wouldn't even remotely care about nuclear weapons, now would they? :')
Yes it's pointless, but hey it's fun, like most things here on /.; utterly pointless but entertaining ;)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
If they have spaceships and can enter or leave the planet without having a giant operation like NASA then they will utterly kick our ass even if they dont have weapons.
They can go and throw really big rocks at us and we cant do anything but play catch.
Re: (Score:2)
1. War of the Worlds. They just try to annihilate us.
2. Ender's Game. Where the aliens don't even realize we have intelligence because they communicate completely differently. Since they can't figure out how to communicate with us, they figure we're no more different than the rest of the animals.
3. Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy. Mostly Harmless. Meaning, we don't even have regular space flight capabilites beyond our own orbit, and aren't worth worrying about.
Re: (Score:2)
What? or they just grab a large rock and hurl it at us at a very high velocity. If you can travel interstellar distance, then destroying life on a planet is pretty trivial.
Re: (Score:2)
That would be both extremely low tech and high tech at the same time and extremely brilliant, sir ;)
Re: (Score:2)
My God, they've been reading E.E. Doc Smith Galactic Patrol Series. If they do this with inertia-less drives we are doomed.
Re: (Score:2)
And what if tommorow we would find a trick for deep space travel. Would that make us suddenly uber awesome?
Why would you even think aliens were so extremely smart?
Re: (Score:2)
All I know is, watch out if they show up offering us a bunch of blankets. We know that trick.
-Steve
Re: (Score:2)
Right. And we're not hosting an intergalactic kegger down here [imdb.com] either. ... don't touch that blanket kid. It might have smallpox [brneurosci.org] or Martian ebola.
Re: (Score:2)
Except they of course could disguise it as something else, like, say, a warp drive that explodes when engaged, or something like that.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
There are a few reasonable assumptions we can make here:
1) If one species develops faster-than-light travel, then that means it's possible, and so it is quite likely that more than one species will do it.
2) Eventually, those species will run across one another as they zoom around the galaxy. As with relations here on earth when one civilization suddenly stumbled upon another, those meetups are not likely to be immediate friendships.
3) Because of that, it's likely that interplanetary wars will break out, whi
Re: (Score:2)
Because if they're not smart enough to develop interstellar travel (which we still haven't), then we'll never see them because they can't come to Earth anyway...
No matter what, they'll be technologically superior, simply because they'd have to be capable of traveling here in the first place.
Of course, I still agree with the first post. I call bullshit.
While I don't disagree with the First Post... I do disagree with your supposition that they will significantly superior technologically.
you probably haven't read Turtledove's Worldwar series?
Re: (Score:2)
While I don't disagree with the First Post... I do disagree with your supposition that they will significantly superior technologically.
The sheer energy and manufacturing/industrial requirements for meaningful interstellar _travel_, let alone conquest, strongly suggests they'd have to be.
you probably haven't read Turtledove's Worldwar series?
I haven't, but a quick reading of an overview [wikipedia.org] suggests a premise (humanity == teh awesome) with no evidence to support it in a non-fictional setting.
Re:Let me be the first to say... (Score:5, Funny)
Think of the steam engine. It is a single invention that caused and made possible the entire industrial revolution.
Now you're giving Valve too much credit.
Re:Let me be the first to say... (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Now that the western world (especially the US [wikipedia.org]) has an obesity issue, they might just decide that the time is right to migrate back ;)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Well, after ruling this planet for 35 million years or whatever, the dinosaurs just up and disappeared. Obviously they developed space travel and decided to migrate to a better part of the galaxy.
I remember seeing that Star Trek episode too: http://memory-alpha.org/wiki/Distant_Origin_(episode) [memory-alpha.org]
Re:Let me be the first to say... (Score:5, Interesting)
No, all "100 to one odds" means in this context is if you bet a dollar they'll be here in a year and they show up, you win $100. It has nothing to do with the real probabilities, which are as close to zero as you can get.
Re:Let me be the first to say... (Score:4, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
It also depends upon the definition of "first contact". Physical contact with an intelligent alien species that has traveled to earth? Communications with an extraterrestrial species? Discovery of any form of extraterrestrial life? I'd need to know the specifics before I'd put money on either side of that bet...
On of my high school teachers described me as a "close encounter of the fourth kind" which he said meant "contact with an alien to the point where it becomes annoying". ;-)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Exactly!
Which means they are betting against aliens appearing any time soon - well, at least any time in the next year. This is not their projected odds of aliens making an appearance. Its their ratio of payment should they actually appear. And based on those odds, they absolutely are betting they will not appear.
Its called a sucker bet [wikipedia.org]. Their downside is large but the odds of them having to actually pay are statistically, incredibly small. As such, their upside looks like free cash.
summary is incorrect (Score:5, Informative)
The summary is incorrect. The 100 to 1 odds aren't even for first contact, but merely that the US/UK will announce the existence of aliens. From TFA:
the gambling company is offering odds of 100/1 on either the US President or the serving British Prime Minister to announce the existence of intelligent extra-terrestrials within a year of the bet being placed.
Re: (Score:2)
Do you think they'll take a bet of $150,000,000,000 (and be able to pay out the win)? Will they take a treasury note?
It's just an announcement, come on Obama have treasury place the bet and then make the announcement. Other than Fox news we'll all understand and choose to pretend you didn't say it.
Re: (Score:2)
Because after alien contact, the speed of light no longer applies? Because as long as the speed of light is the limit, there will be finite resources to fight over, and money to proxy for fighting.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Anyone who bets obviously thinks the real probability is better than that strongly enough to put their money where there mouth is - why is your unexplained estimate of the probability any better than theirs?
Re: (Score:2)
Unless they already have been here.
Honestly when have you seen the governments of this world do anything big without being prodded by events.
Announce a space alien ambassador..... Either they want to embarrass this guy or they already have met one and are preparing for a public announcement.
I'm thinking this is a big joke to make some rich guy look like a dweeb.
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Let me be the first to say... (Score:5, Interesting)
Do you realize how much our understanding of the universe has changed in 100 years? Do you realize how much our technology has advanced in 100 years?
For all we know, there is a galactic Internet accessible via quantum effects of some sort. Tapping that would be first contact. Alternatively, synthetic lifeforms may be trying to replicate themselves by broadcasting the schematics for their hardware/software throughout the universe via radio waves, being "born" whenever some curious species detects the signal and builds it. Build it and talk to it -BAM- that's first contact. Considering the size of the universe and the principles of evolution, this later idea seems down-right likely, not just plausible.
We don't have to be physically visited to make first contact.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
You'll eat your words, YOU'LL EAT YOUR WOOOOOOOORRRRDS!
--
*dude, don't spoil the bet for me here, I am betting 1000:1 against it.
Reminds me of another old joke:
Two beggars are sitting on opposite corners of a street. One has a sign: give to a poor Arab, and he has a few dozens of coins in a plate. Another has a sign: give to a poor Jew. He has 1 coin.
A passer by drops a coin into the Jew's plate and says: -You should probably change your sign, it's not working out.
Once the guy left, the Jew yells to the Ara
Re: (Score:2)
NO, I'l eat your braaaiiiins.
Re: (Score:2)
I for one welcome our new bookmaking overlords.
Game changer (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
You think? More than likely, even if it were to happen, it would just be a simple acknowledgment: "okay, they're out there."
Well, either that or we're about to be conquered, and in that case who cares.
Re:Game changer (Score:5, Funny)
I'd think it'd be more like "HOLY FUCKING SHIT ALIENS" in some places.
Re: (Score:2)
This
Plus every marketing manager is going to start looking for some way to make their current product lines appeal to our new alien overlords (customers.... customlords? overmers?) and every credit card company will be delivering them boxes filled with pre-approvals.
These people will all be disappointed though, the aliens just came to get themselves iPads.
Re: (Score:2)
With the technology required to fly intersteller distances, how could they even be interested in a shiny piece of aluminum?
I know, it was probably sarcasm, but I would see the aliens being more interested in android :)
Re: (Score:2)
Um... Hi, Earthlings. Look, we're sorry to bother you. I know this will sound lame, and believe me, I'm embarrassed to even ask. The interplexing baffle plate on our xilqar has developed microfractures, and we don't want to be dripping anti-gravitons on your nice clean solar system. By the way, we really admire how you keep it looking nice and pristine. Not a sign of sphezhing re
Re: (Score:2)
Might be a good time to start up a book publishing company by then. All those religious and 'holy' books that have to be rewritten en distributed...
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Why?
There wasn't hysteria when people where found on remote jungles, or the New world. They didn't stop believing when the stumbled upon other groups who didn't believe the same way.
Seriously, you really underestimate the level of there delusion.
Almost immediately it would be "Hey our god created others, isn't he great!"
Yeah, there would be some people who do rash things, but they would be in the far minority.
Re:Game changer (Score:4, Insightful)
Are you kidding? There was massive hysteria in the New World when the Europeans arrived...
Re: (Score:2)
Maybe not so bad? (Score:2)
The two dogs and one cat who I cohabit with have their meals prepared and served on time, daily. They sleep as often as they want, and are completely sheltered from the evils of the world. I would say that so long as my new alien overload refrains from habitually beating me, I'm good.
Re: (Score:2)
In other words, we'd be like insects to them.
Not necessarily. As a civilization, we have many branching arms of scientific research being explored, which does include some research into Faster-Than-Light travel. There are at least concepts being considered [nasa.gov]. Not much work is being done on them, but there is at least some.
Would any visiting aliens be more advanced than us? At least in the science of interstellar travel, they certainly would be, but probably not by much. Also, depending upon their priorities as a species, they may or may not have ad
Re: (Score:2)
IMO, visiting aliens (and the human race itself, once it's decided to go for interstellar missions) will more probably be completely electronic, having Kurzweil-esque electronic simulation of neurons and synapses that is our brains, and so being able to survive the very long travel periods.
Re: (Score:2)
IMO, visiting aliens (and the human race itself, once it's decided to go for interstellar missions) will more probably be completely electronic, having Kurzweil-esque electronic simulation of neurons and synapses that is our brains, and so being able to survive the very long travel periods.
Not to mention foreign and probably harsh atmospheric conditions...
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Game changer (Score:5, Insightful)
I think you're right. Many people believe that the simple discovery of aliens would usher in some new era of either panic or cooperation for all of mankind.
Based on what I've observed, I think it's most likely to be a simple case of few people caring. I'm sure some would claim it's a government conspiracy either way.
You won't find a whole lot of people even concerned until they start whining about illegal aliens within our borders and the aliens taking our jobs.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
You won't find a whole lot of people even concerned until they start whining about illegal aliens within our borders and the aliens taking our jobs.
Dey tuk er jerbs!
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
In a similar vein, one thing I have always thought was funny about anime is that a very common character reaction to learning about aliens is just that. So many characters in anime don't freak out when they learn a character is an alien... they are just like "oh, ok," and go about their usual lives and treat the alien like everyone else. Another good example is Neuromancer. At the end Wintermute finds out there is alien life and the reaction is "No Shit?" and the subject is dropped.
Re:Game changer (Score:5, Interesting)
Wow, I just realized what a brilliant move this is on the part of the betting house. The fools who bet for it happening just aren't going to win, the fools who bet against it happening... well, take their stake, put it in a CD for 12 months, then give them their 1% winnings, while you keep the other 2% for yourself.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
I have a checking account with a local Credit Union (Kansas) that pays 4% on the first 25000 in my checking account if I meet three conditions: Make 10 purchases with the account debit card, make a direct deposit, and take an electronic statement instead of having them mail me the paper copy. Check the Smart Checking section directly below the table. [educationalcu.org] A quick search found one in Michigan with a lower limit. [lmcu.org]
Re: (Score:2)
invest in brasilian markets.
some _conservative_ investments here are paying 1% (one percent) _A MONTH_
the downside is that interest in overdrafted account can be as high as 7% a month (yes, a month)
Re: (Score:2)
the would gte, MAYBE 1.65 %. And only if it's a pretty large sum of money all at once, not a little every day.
Still, having other peoples money to earn .65% interest isn't bad.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
> I can still get better than 1% interest rate
Yes, but 1% plus I-called-first-contact bragging rights? Priceless.
Not really worth it even for a sure thing (Score:4, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
I need a better bank, mine's only paying out chances of me not getting hit by lightning.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
GP was referring betting 100 against, and getting back the $1 betting against, assuming the bookmakers are playing both sides.
Re: (Score:2)
First as first official contact and not the past c (Score:2)
First as first official contact and not the past covered up ones?
It's a good tip... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:2)
... that some bookies figured that by giving great odds on an impossible events, idiots would flock to give them money.
I feel at times like this that English may be short a word. Now, I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment, but pedants like to flock to statements like this and say things like, "anything is possible!" On the flip side though, a word like improbable simply doesn't properly convey the true odds of this happening (not that anyone can guess the TRUE odds, but, really, first contact? pshaw).
I don't have the largest possible vocabulary out there, so there may already be such a word, but I like portmanteaus,
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
"giving great odds on an impossible event"
It's a tax on stupidity, and the money keeps rolling in!
No, no, no. (Score:2)
They're misreading it the situation.
If a landing were imminent, they would have appointed a complete incompetent as ambassador.
Re: (Score:2)
Looks like somebody watched/read a little too much Dune!
looks like William Hill won't lose in any case (Score:2)
"The chances of anything coming from Mars... (Score:3, Informative)
...are a hundred to one, they say...
but still they come! [youtube.com]
Uh-oh (Score:2)
Maybe they're here to build a hyperspace bypass...
Where the hell is my towel?!
Within a year? (Score:2)
I'm sorry but First Contact [imdb.com] happened in 1996.
100/1 odds of what? (Score:2)
that what we know about physics and speed limits is wrong? Because unless you have "easy" FTL odds for contacting an alien civilization are pretty low (far less than 1/100).Or they are talking about an alien-ated civilization? because we are going definately in that direction if that kind of bets becomes part of our culture.
In the other hand, odds are not so low that we are the one driving the "first contact" to an alien lifeform, just probably not intelligent ones, if life in any way is discovered i.e. i [slashdot.org]
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
You're assuming that wormholes are possible and usable for spacetravel. You're just spreading the improbably jelly around and its certainly not helping your case. I hate how people just sit there and assume that magical gates they've seen on their favorite soft sci-fi shows are a given. They're not.
Re: (Score:2)
>that what we know about physics and speed limits is wrong?
I'm sure if you asked these gamblers about the odds of Jesus returning or that miracles are real you'd get similar, if not, better odds. Why do we care that non-experts think aliens are going to land? I can visit io9.com or any other sci-fi site to read "predictions" from mouth breathers with wish fulfillment fantasies.
Re: (Score:2)
> What are the odds they'd find us, even if they could get here?
Before you can even answer that, I would recommend studying what Einstein called "Spooky action at a distance", i.e. How does one photon "communicate" to the other photon?
Consciousness is not limited to the archaic light speed.*
* Proof left as an exercise for the reader.
--
Inner Space is the FINAL frontier, not Outer Space.
"Extraterrestial Affairs Office" on Denver ballot (Score:2)
Boy Did I Lose This Bet (Score:2)
Hawking (Score:2)
Idle (Score:3, Insightful)
What's with all the crap hitting the front page that should be on Idle? We've gotten stories about creative art in Minecraft, Asteriods on web pages, and now this. Slow news the past couple of days?
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
I for one would be willing to sacrifice a gambling company to bankruptcy in exchange for first contact. Naturally the owners of said company may feel differently.
Re:Only 100/1? (Score:4, Interesting)
You are presuming that the bookies here are going to have a loss if the aliens show up.
Most places like this set the odds based upon the ratio of what others are placing for bets. There are certainly a great many willing to take this as a sucker's bet and likely put a whole bunch of money down even if the pay--back is just a few percentage points more on the return. That increases the odds because more people are signing up and expecting that the aliens aren't going to be coming.
Let me be more clear here with a good example: Let's say a group of people put together $1000 saying that the aliens are going to show up. Another group puts together $100,000 that the aliens aren't going to come. That gives you the 100:1 betting ratio. The bookie (the "gaming company") isn't really putting anything into this other than holding the money and charging a small fee... say 1% of that money... from everybody placing a bet. So the gaming company keeps roughly $1000 for holding the money and the "winner" gets the combined pot of whatever is left proportionally for what they put into the pot.
Only a stupid bookie gets caught up into his own game, even if it is a "sure bet". Perhaps some of them will put up their own money, but not often. They make the money from the betting process itself not from winning or losing a bet. If the aliens show up, it won't be the gaming company that will be pissed off. Those who thought they made a sucker's bet that turned out wrong.... those will be the guys who will be pissed.
BTW, if a whole bunch of tin-foil hat nerds show up and throw a million bucks into the game, the 100:1 ratio won't be maintained. In that case, the ration will be 1:10 where those betting the aliens won't be coming will be getting $10 buck for every buck they put in. The gaming company collects a larger fee and it becomes something that would be attractive to start placing bets that the aliens won't be coming. In other words, the gaming company is going to be posting record profits even if the aliens come. The betting odds are only suggesting what other suckers are thinking of the situation.
Re: (Score:2)
That is brilliant.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
2012, The Mayans knew it, they were waiting.