Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Uses Games To See the Future 134
parallel_prankster writes "Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a professor of politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in California. In his new book, The Predictioneer (The Predictioneer's Game in the US), he describes a computer model based on game theory which he — and others — claim can predict the future with remarkable accuracy. The website also has a game page where he provides an online version of the game and information on how to play." The (semi-paywalled; may need to register) New Scientist has a story on de Mesquita, too; a snippet: "Over the past 30 years, Bueno de Mesquita has made thousands of predictions about hundreds of issues from geopolitics to personal problems. Overall, he claims, his hit rate is about 90 per cent."
Re:90% Accuracy (Score:5, Informative)
Well, actually, they say 90%. From TFA:
According to research by the CIA, Bueno de Mesquita's model is more than 90 per cent accurate (British Journal of Political Science, vol 26, p 441).
Is that independent enough for you?
Re:90% Accuracy (Score:1, Informative)
>>Is that independent enough for you?
Then that should have been posted in the summary instead. Whenever I read self-written claims of a model's accuracy, my bullshit meter goes off.
In related news, Miss Cleo predicts ongoing instability in the Middle East, conflicts over water rights, and people being unhappy with those jokers in government.
In even more related news, you made a false assumption and are trying to justify it.
Re:Already been done. (Score:3, Informative)
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-september-28-2009/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita [thedailyshow.com]
Re:If he isn't already rich then he's lying (Score:4, Informative)
His model seems to do well in cases where a relatively small number of people have significant influence on the outcome and since accurate predictions about the stock market require a model that both accurately predicts events in industry/production as well as the influence of large numbers of stockholders it probably wouldn't be wise to apply his model to that kind of situation; he even admits as much, that it's only good for fairly small groups.
This method is NOT 'future seeing' (Score:3, Informative)
From the /. story headline (emphasis added):
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Uses Games To See the Future
Having read the fine links, it seems Mr. de Mesquita doesn't actually "see the future". He gathers data and throws it into his computer, which applies game rules to determine the most likely outcome. To me, "seeing the future" implies predicting the unpredictable - assasinations, a meteor taking out a major area, the abdication of a king (so he could marry his American sweetheart), etc.
Indeed, here's a quote from the New Scientist article:
Methinks Mr. de Mesquita's method works because he meticulously gathers excellent data. If his data was sloppy, his rate of successful "predictions" would be much lower than it is.
Sometimes events which are 'unpredictable' happen. In retrospect we say, 'oh yes, this event was the only logical event to have taken place'. But such an event is typically unthinkable before it happens. Mr. deMesquita's model doesn't allow for the unpredictable, and is therefore NOT 'future seeing'.
I have a book on seeing the future. Here's a quote from the first couple pages that I typed up for a 2008 election prediction poll on K5 [kuro5hin.org] a while back:
Re:Irrelevent - English is dead (Score:3, Informative)
http://www.google.ie/search?q=predictioneer [google.ie]
Results 1 - 10 of about 57,900 for predictioneer.