WHO Says Swine Flu May Have Peaked In the US 138
Hugh Pickens writes "The World Health Organization says that there were 'early signs of a peak' in swine flu activity in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including the US. The American College Health Association, which surveys more than 250 colleges with more than three million students, said new flu cases had dropped 27 percent in the week ending on November 13th from the week before, the first drop since school resumed in the fall. Nonetheless, Dr. Anne Schuchat, the director of vaccination and respiratory disease at the CDC, chose her words carefully. 'We are in better shape today than we were a couple of weeks ago,' she says. 'I wish I knew if we had hit the peak. Even if a peak has occurred, half the people who are going to get sick haven't gotten sick yet.' Privately, federal health officials say they fear that if they concede the flu has peaked, Americans will become complacent and lose interest in getting vaccinated, increasing the chances of another wave. However, Dr. Lone Simonsen, a former CDC epidemiologist, says she expects a third wave in December or January, possibly beginning in the South again. Based on death rates in New York City and in Scandinavia, Simonsen argues that both 1918 and 1957 had mild spring waves followed by two stronger waves, one in fall and one in midwinter, adding that in the pandemic of 1889, the bulk of the deaths occurred in the third wave. 'If people think it's going away, they can think again.'"
Who? (Score:5, Funny)
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Perhaps it was a doctor [doctor-who-toys.com]?
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Which Doctor?
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I don't know.
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What? I don't know.
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-What's the name of the organisation that said it?!
-No, WHAT [wikipedia.org] just mentioned it between songs.
Who? (Score:1)
The president of China, that's who.
The Doctor! (Score:2)
Doctor Who of course.
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I actually have a complete mental block that keeps me from reading headlines involving the WHO as anything but the British rock band The Who. So then I end up with bizarre lyrics stuck in my head:
Swine flu may have peaked in the US
Talkin' 'bout my generation...
"Pandemics" are the new "terrorists". (Score:1, Interesting)
Apparently the "terrorist" threat is getting old and worn out, so now the media and politicians have to trumpet the "pandemic" threat.
I wonder what next week's threat will be. Maybe it'll come back to "communists" again.
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So what country do we have to invade to fight against the pandemists?
Re:"Pandemics" are the new "terrorists". (Score:4, Informative)
I think you are correct. (Score:2)
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Considering that the majority of deaths in the so-called flu pandemic of 1918 were actually [gaia-health.com] from tuberculosis (which would have made it a tuberculosis pandemic) and pneumonia [wikipedia.org] ...
Just like today, it was mostly killing off people who had weakened immune systems and chronic diseases.
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Considering that the majority of deaths in the so-called flu pandemic of 1918 were actually [gaia-health.com] from tuberculosis (which would have made it a tuberculosis pandemic) and pneumonia [wikipedia.org] ...
Just like today, it was mostly killing off people who had weakened immune systems and chronic diseases.
Are you implying that it's ok that those who died, died (and are going to die in this pandemic)?
I hope not!
Also, those diseases don't really kill anybody. What ultimately kills in almost all disease related deaths is lack of oxygen in the brain, caused for example by heart stopping.
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Three points to consider, which may sound harsh (and they are), but reality bites:
1. "Pandemic" - you keep using that word, but I think you don't know what it means. It means it's spreading. It does not mean that it's deadly. A new strain of rhinovirus can become pandemic, and yet nobody has to die from it, or even get more than the sniffles.
2. The morbidly obese are going to die anyway. Look up the term "morbid" - when you're that fat, maybe the idea that the flu can kill you might motivate you to
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Frankly I did not care what the definition is but as my money is spent on the vaccine that is not properly tested for an illness that is not really killing (comparing to normal flu which kills thousands a year anyway) I kind of got interested.
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The definition of the word has been constant for decades. The definition currently used by WHO [who.int] is still the same: "A pandemic is a worldwide epidemic of a disease". Not fatal, just widespread. Same as last century.
The only thing that changed was someone looking to expand their empire. THAT is what this "pandemic" has been about. Everyone generating hoopla over it did so with ulterior motives. The media, so that they could make more $$$ with more viewers. The governments, so they could look like they
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I am certain that the next one will be how the internet is enabling countries like China and India to take jobs away from the USA. People, afraid for their livelihood, will pressure the government into placing heavy restrictions on internet content and distribution.
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Relevance (Score:4, Insightful)
Isn't the peak something that you talk about later when you are analyzing the data? Of what relevance is it to discuss a peak in this current cycle?
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Also, it's still mutating and is now drug resistant:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8370859.stm [bbc.co.uk]
Where does the money go? (Score:2, Insightful)
I'm somehow sceptic about the whole hype around the swine flu based on the fact that the U.S. Government alone paid nearly a billion $ for the vaccine http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2009/07/13/daily26.html [bizjournals.com], much more globally. I mean, the swine flu is even less hazardous than the normal flu, and with some good care for the immune system it does not cause much problems, so is it really necessary to spread a big panic and spend that amount of money? I mean, that's a lot of money. Rea
Re:Where does the money go? (Score:5, Insightful)
(Swine Flu) A virus that was super-contagious and infected nearly everyone, and got them sick for 2 weeks, but barely anyone would die from would be far more economically damaging than a virus that was not very contagious, but killed all those it infected. (HIV)
This is because our economy was never meant to handle a mass exodus of workers. We're lucky it wasn't worse than it was. In places in Michigan, 1/2 of entire counties got sick, and schools and businesses were closed for days.
Just because You didn't get sick doesn't mean the illness is trivial.
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The big lesson here is don't listen to Fox News and CNN, and don't let Fox News and CNN dictate government policy. (And I'd blame WHO and CDC for part of this
contagious? (Score:1)
I may be putting words into your mouth, but you are not confusing contagious with deadly are you? It is just that you say:
of the 152 people who supposedly died from it (which is what made people thinkit was highly contagious)
No insult intended, but to avoid confusion I would say that a disease can be contagious without being deadly since the word "contagious" means "can be spread from an infected person to a non-infected person". Colds are contagious, but not deadly, HIV is not skin-contact contagious, but deadly.
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Here's some logic: For 152 people to have died from it, 152 would have had to have caught it. The 145 others who died, didn't have H1N1; they died of other causes. So, it wasn't "highly contagious" or "rqapidly spreading through the population" - 152 people didn't catch it and die in the initial outbreak. 7 people caught it and died. It's mildly contagious, and it's less severe than the regular flu.
When my daughter came back from Mexico, she was worried. I told her that I story was complete BS (befo
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The other 145 didn't even catch the virus. Their deaths were totally unrelated to flu. In other words, we've known that this is not a "super-flu." Also, we've known from the first weeks that even the reduced figures are suspect because of faulty assumptions throughout the system.
should we be happy? No - what we have is a total failure to logically allocate resources based on risk, a misuse of public funds, and the media scare-mongering for profit by catering to the basest fears of the crowd. Worse,
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Any company that goes under that quickly was standing at the edge of the abyss, this is nowhere near an economy killer. Unless the US is standing on the edge of the abyss, but that's a different problem entirely. The economy can have setbacks without going into a Great Depression II death spiral, and temporary things like people falling sick for a few weeks isn't it. There's far bigger structural issues that the US is struggling with, right now they seem to go for the credit card trap - taking up more debt
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You know how tempermental customers are, even when dealing with other businesses. Is IBM or Microsoft going to be hurt by the swine flu? A bit. I'm sure there were setbacks as some people came ill. But the business as a whole kept chugging on.
When your payroll is less than ten thousand employees or you're centrally located, then it can be much worse.
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The media circus around it is the only reason anything happened this year different than last year.
Considering the amount of FUD spread by the media, the numbers for flu cases and deaths this year isn't really higher than normal. If everyone was as paranoid about the flu every year, we'd see pretty much the same thing.
Take a good look at the CDCs weekly states for this flu season, its really not that bad. The difference is everyone saying 'OMG I GOT SWINE FLUZ I'M GONNA DIE STAY AWAY AND SAVE YOURSELF!@$!
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Except that:
A. The only reason for the higher death rate in young people is that we're seeing significant immunity in older people as a result of exposure to several similar strains in the past. Therefore, the proportional death rate in young people is high because they're the only ones getting it. The odds of dying from it if you catch it are not much higher than seasonal flu---less than a factor of two or so in the U.S., IIRC, which is bad, but not "kills a third of the population" bad or anything.
B. We
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The odds of dying from it if you catch it are not much higher than seasonal flu---less than a factor of two or so in the U.S., IIRC, which is bad, but not "kills a third of the population" bad or anything.
However, the odds of catching it are close to 100%. Compared to what percentage with regular influenza? 5%? If we had 1 death per 100 people with influenza at that rate, we'd have 10 deaths per 100 people with swine flu (if it's half as severe).
It isn't the end of the world, but it's certainly more serious than regular influenza and worth having a vaccine for.
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So are the odds for the seasonal flu if you are in the same household as someone who has it. The stats I've read suggest that H1N1 spreads no more or less easily than seasonal flu in humans, just without the air temperature constraints. Of course, there's an endless stream of contradictory reports on this subject.... :-)
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Simple - if it mutates, the vaccine us useless. If you're healthy, the vaccine is useless. If you take normal precautions, the vaccine is useless.
If, on the other hand you're an obese tub of lard with other pre-existing conditions from lifestyle diseases, you'll just die a bit younger. And in the 1918 "flu pandemic", most deaths were from pneumonia and tuberculosis - not flu. Even then, the flu was just being opportunistic.
And we knew before the "onset" of the current "pandemic" that it wasn't going
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Simple - if it mutates, the vaccine us useless. If you're healthy, the vaccine is useless. If you take normal precautions, the vaccine is useless.
All those points are wrong. A vaccine might still provide partial resistance even to a mutation. If you have the flu, you aren't healthy. And you can still catch the flu, if you merely take normal precautions.
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Long-term, partial resistance is worse than no resistance, since your body will try to use antibodies that show a partial effect rather than try to generate a proper immune response. This is why the latest study shows that people who get vaccinated for flu end up getting it twice as often.
If you have the flu, big deal. It's not going to kill you if you're healthy (statistically, if you're healthy, you're more likely to die getting hit by lightning than from this flu). And it's pretty hard to catch the f
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This is why the latest study shows that people who get vaccinated for flu end up getting it twice as often.
Or it could be because people who get the flu a lot or who are more likely to die from the flu are more likely to seek a vaccination. Correlation doesn't imply causation.
It's not going to kill you if you're healthy (statistically, if you're healthy, you're more likely to die getting hit by lightning than from this flu).
In its current version.
And it's pretty hard to catch the flu if you take all the right precautions, like washing your hands, not hanging around carriers, not sharing keyboards, phones, etc., keeping common areas well ventilated, getting lots of sleep, eating right, not picking your nose (78% of the population picks their nose).
It's "harder" not "hard" to catch the flu, if you take the above precautions (assuming you have the choice which isn't always the case). It's still quite easy under a lot of common circumstances (say like working with a sick colleague in a small, poorly ventilated office).
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1. The study controlled for all those, and still found that people who got flu shots were twice as likely to get the flu in subsequent years. It does appear to be a causative agent, and there is at least one biological mechanism that would explain it.
2. Of course "in it's current version." But if we wanted to talk hypothetical, it would still apply for the average case (though perhaps not for outliers, obviously)
3. It *IS* hard to catch this flu if you take all the right precautions. Those precaution
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2. The outliers are what drives current flu policy. If there was no such thing as the 1918 pandemic (which over
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Virulence is as important to consider as severity. This is so contagious (due to lack of immunity) that almost everyone will get it.
The deaths per capita will be far higher than influenza, even if the individual risk of death is lower. We're quite fortunate it's mild enough that many people who have gotten it don't even realize it.
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Acai berry is provably a less potent antioxidant than cheaper and more prevalent foods. Not to mention that antioxidants have no proven benefits. None. Your anecdote notwithstanding, antioxidants are bogus. On the other hand, vitamin D is really fucking important, so taking 0.25mg a day is probably a good idea. There's not much of a link between it and the immune system, but you'll be safe from rickets.
How about the following to protect from illness: Wash your hands. Don't touch your face. Get enough rest.
You mean... (Score:1, Insightful)
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Yes, we most certainly are going to die. Sorry, make your time.
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For great justice!
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Nope, not all gonna die. But a large chunk of us are gonna feel horrible for 2-3 days, and then harbor a slowly diminishing cough for several weeks.
At least watching the talking heads scream "OMFG where all gonna die!!!!!11elevin" was entertaining when I couldn't get outa bed.
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I really hoped that it will solve all our problems for good. Now we will have to do something about ourselves. Damn.
Not me (Score:2)
I intend to outlive old age. By the time I reach my natural span, improvements in medicine will let me survive the next decades until a definitive cure for aging is found.
BS (Score:3, Insightful)
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So you don't think it's worth trying to figure out whether, to use the hurricane metaphor, you're at the eye or the edge? You know, as a basis for deciding whether to start taking the storm shutters down and cleaning up the yard, or hunker down and wait for the next round? All predictions are inexact by their nature, epidemiological predictions no more (or less) so than meteorological ones. That doesn't mean they're not worth trying to make.
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This is more like saying a hurricane might be over while in the eye of the hurricane, where past hurricanes have had a history of dissipating when the eye reached this geographical location. It might not play out the same this time, but there is a pretty good chance that it will.
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You can't know something has peaked or bottomed out until way after the fact. It's like having a sign of relief when in the eye of a hurricane or ignoring the possibility of aftershocks from earthquakes.
They have pretty good infection models for the flu. So yes, they can have a good idea of when the flu peaks.
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You can't know something has peaked or bottomed out until way after the fact. It's like having a sign of relief when in the eye of a hurricane or ignoring the possibility of aftershocks from earthquakes.
They have pretty good infection models for the flu. So yes, they can have a good idea of when the flu peaks.
Of course (as even the summary says) it's bitch that making and publishing a prediction may change the outcome :-). But I guess they can take that into account in their models too. So, when they report something like this, what do their models *really* say is likely to happen, hmm...
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You can't be CERTAIN until after the fact, that's why the use of words and phrases like "hopeful", "may have", and even "I wish I knew".
For example, if you have observed both the leading and trailing walls of a hurricane pass you have reason to hope it's over. It COULD come back around or trigger a secondary storm, so you can't be sure but you have ample reason for hope (just don't bet your life on it).
At the same time it's intresting to see media sources desperately clinging to the "OMG! WE'RE ALL GONNA DI
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True, but we're can pretty accurately say it. See the interesting thing about 'the swine flu' is that if you account for the media FUD skewing the numbers then it really ISN'T THAT DIFFERENT THAN EVERY OTHER YEAR.
Yes there are more reports this year, because 90% of the public who would have just 'had the flu' and kept going like they have every other year for the past several thousand, this year they stay home. They went to the doctor. They told their friends. They made others stay away from them and st
Yes, it is less now ... (Score:4, Informative)
Here in Canada, my doctor said yesterday that he is seeing a drop in people coming in with flu symptoms. It used to be more in the past few weeks.
Also, Google Flu Trends [google.org] shows a marked drop. In the USA [google.org], there is a drop too.
I have also observed less absence at my little kid's school as well.
Seasonal flu wave yet to come (Score:3, Interesting)
I wonder how bad the seasonal flu wave will be this year. With all the excitement about swine flu, seasonal flu vaccinations seem to be forgotten.
I've been undergoing cancer treatment for the past five years and usually get the shot to reduce the chance of getting the flu while I'm busy fighting something else. But this year my oncologist's office ran out of the vaccine between my monthly checkups. My backup plan is to get the shot at work or a drugstore, but I haven't seen any information about those clini
News for nerds ... stuff that matters (Score:1, Funny)
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It tells you for how long the swine flu excuse will work.
Comment removed (Score:3, Interesting)
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Re:What percentage died with and without vaccinati (Score:2)
Well, the regular flu on average kills 30,000 per year in the US. The swine flu was projected to START at 40,000 and go as high at 100,000.
So far the swine flu has only killed 4,000.
And I bet there will be no coverage on how many die from the regular flu this season.
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And so if we DID just watch the peak go by, that would imply a total of about 8,000 once the tail passes.
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My current statistics is that in Norway a little over 20 people have died - most with complicating diseases - while 2-300 die each year in traffic accidents. In other words, I find it completely and utterly blown out of any proportion and there's probably not enough deaths to make decent statistics, not unless you gather all of them worldwide. I'm not getting vaccinated, and honestly they could have skipped the whole damn thing. Yes, some more people would lose a week's worth of work but they'd handle the f
Re:What percentage died with and without vaccinati (Score:2)
The CDC has, somewhere buried on its site that I found a month or so back some states about the mortality rates, sorry I'm not going to bother to find you a link but if you look hard enough google will for you.
Summary:
This strain of H1N1 seasonal a. AKA the swine flu:
Mortality rate of %0.05
The standard average over the last 50 years or so for the seasonal strains combined is %0.16
So last year, 3 times more people would have died from the flu last year than this year. Total deaths accounted to it will be hi
Google Flu Trends (Score:3, Informative)
Interestingly, Google Flu Trends [google.org] shows similar signs, although there the peak already occured in October.
Peak swine flu (Score:2, Funny)
OK, peak oil is bad enough. But now also peak swine flu? Imagine the effects on the vaccine producers!
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OK, peak oil is bad enough. But now also peak swine flu? Imagine the effects on the vaccine producers!
Don't worry, the viruses will come back. They always come back... They're patient, just biding their time.
Or, if they get bored waiting, they just release the sharks with lasers to shoot everybody who's immune. So don't get the vaccine! You've been warned now!
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Imagine the effects on the vaccine producers!
The government will have to bail them out with billions in aid. They geared up to produce all this vaccine, and now no one wants it. People will lose jobs, big business will fold... Bring on the corporate welfare.
Theory, not history. (Score:2, Insightful)
I'd be a lot more inclined to believe a well proven theory than simply looking at the history of past epidemics. With so much talk about history predicting the present, it indicates to me that the knowledge of how epidemics work and how viruses mutate is extremely poor. As an example, we can fairly accurately predict where a hurricane will move in the next few days, but I've never heard anyone say "well, in 1992 Hurricane Andrew went west, then south, then east. It's possible Hurricane XYZ might take a s
The WHO is horrible. (Score:5, Funny)
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Not to mention that time they framed Roger Rabbit. How do they keep getting away with it?
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Yes but they also gave us Tommy and My Generation so its a wash.
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These "articles" are nothing but baseless slander! These reporters can't even stand behind their lies enough to leave the question marks out of their titles!
yea, right (Score:3, Insightful)
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Yes, the media needs new FUD to keep their ratings up, way to fall for the trap.
That would be nice! (Score:3, Interesting)
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I wish you luck, the media FUD that has made everyone paranoid and falsely inflated the statistics and people drive to get the vaccine is screwing you.
Unfortunately, whats going to happen is they'll just find a couple cases where the vaccine 'didn't work' and so it'll be a whole new paranoia and they'll stop producing the current vaccine in favor of a new one.
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I have a medalert card in my wallet, and I could probably get a letter from my doctor, heck: I could show them the bottles of Vivaglobin that I've been co
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When you stop sympathising with stupidity, you start thinking as an idiot.
(My sympathies on the diagnosis, BTW)
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Here's the joy of my treatment: infusions. Twice a week. Four needles in my abdomen for two hours per infusion. Probably for the rest of my life. I won't mention the increased risk for interesting forms of cancer and other joys.
Simply put, it pretty
Is there supposed to be only one peak ? (Score:3, Interesting)
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France is also the country with the biggest antivaxx movement in Europe.
Vaccine, what vaccine (Score:1)
You know... (Score:1)
Baha Men (Score:1)
Go back to bed (Score:2)
For fuck's sake, people, swine flu is not a problem.
It is the flu. It is annoying. It is contagious. It might kill you if you already have pneumonia, and it might kill you if you are really young. This is normal behavior for the flu. It came from pigs, and this does not make a single god damned bit of difference.
If vaccine was available, people would get it (Score:3, Informative)
Our whole family just had H1N1 and yet none of us could get a vaccine beforehand, not even our 2 year old daughter. If vaccine was available, all of us would have gotten it. To top the confusion, the doctor is still asking us to get the shot when it becomes available. Give me a frigging break.
Now what amazes me is that our daughter coughed for 2 days and then she was fine, while we are still sick after 3 weeks. Daycares must create some kind of mutant immune systems that put interspecies viruses to shame.
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"Now what amazes me is that our daughter coughed for 2 days and then she was fine, while we are still sick after 3 weeks."
Anecdotes /= data, but this appears to be pretty common. I've had post-flu bronchitis for a couple of weeks and some others locally for more than a month.
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First off, its not actually 'worse' than any other seasonal flu. Its actually less of a concern. You've just been involved in a media FUD campaign for ratings.
Second, it is in no way 'interspecies'. Pigs don't get 'infected with swine flu'. The 'swine flu' name comes from the fact that part of the DNA sequence for the virus is shared with a strain that pigs get. You can't get the strain that pigs get. Pigs can't get the strain you get.
Third, ALMOST EVERY SINGLE VIRUS IS THE EXACT SAME WAY. We're JUST
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Our whole family just had H1N1 and yet none of us could get a vaccine beforehand, not even our 2 year old daughter. If vaccine was available, all of us would have gotten it. To top the confusion, the doctor is still asking us to get the shot when it becomes available. Give me a frigging break.
Same here, and I'm pissed. I got the seasonal vaccine in early October and would have taken both had they been available.
This is the only aspect of healthcare that the Federal government has complete control over. Th
Ad Hoc Medicine (Score:2)
We had a 1976 "pandemic" too. They called it off when 10 people got Guillian-Barre syndrome from the vaccinations. 25 have this time, and they haven't called it off yet. In neither case was morbidity or mortality of the 'swine flu' greater than that of common variants.
I've seen good evidence that someone innoculated against H1N1 only won't get it. I've seen none that shows they can't carry it. I've seen some that suggests those who get the "seasonal" vaccine only are more likely to get H1N1. There's enough
The Who? (Score:1, Offtopic)
Since when did The Who start making announcements about flu pandemics? Is this like a PSA with celebrity endorsements?
Tempest in a Teapot (Score:2)
In Canada Swine Flu/H1N1 has become the dominant flu strain circulating representing 99.2% of all flu cases diagnosed. This is good news as 5,000 Canadians died last year from the seasonal flu while this year only 250 have died from flu since April. If 4,500 less people will die from flu this year, it makes you wonder what all the panic was over?
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Wasn't it obvious? They don't need it any more. The health care bit is almost over in the US.