Fewer Than 10 ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy?

Al writes "The Fermi Paradox focuses on the existence of advanced civilizations elsewhere in the galaxy. If these civilizations are out there — and many analyses suggest the galaxy should be teeming with life — why haven't we seen them? Carlos Cotta and Álvaro Morales from the University of Malaga in Spain investigate another angle by considering the speed at which a sufficiently advanced civilization could colonize the galaxy. Various analyses suggest that using spacecraft that travel at a tenth of the speed of light, the colonization wavefront could take some 50 million years to sweep the galaxy. Others have calculated that it may be closer to 13 billion years, which may explain ET's absence. Cotta and Morales study how automated probes sent ahead of the colonization could explore the galaxy. If these probes left evidence of a visit that lasts for 100 million years, then there can be no more than about 10 civilizations out there."

Too Many Free Variables

[eldavojohn]

Fewer Than 10 ET Civilizations In Our Galaxy?

All this is assuming that we would know immediately if there were a 50-100 million year old alien probe in our solar system's backyard. Stack that on top of all the non-empirical data based percentages that go into the Fermi paradox and ...

*puts on Twilight Zone music*

Human beings are the alien probe!

And man, we had better start compiling that report that's due when Quetzalcoatl/Jesus/Osiris/Thoth/Viracocha get back here. He's gonna be pissed when he sees that we just threw a huge party and trashed the place instead of assessing the resources!

ever since moo

[hort_wort]

We've known there to be at most 10 civilizations ever since Master of Orion. A typical scenario is more like 6 though.

Nonsense...

[Vectronic]

We should start bumping into Vulcans in about 54 years... Zefram Cochrane should be born pretty soon... then we'll know.

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[lorenlal]

I at least hope they're getting a good laugh.

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Anonymous Coward]

Why doesn't Ross, the bigger of the 'Friends', simply just EAT the other two?! - Omicron Persei 8

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Anonymous Coward]

And man, we had better start compiling that report that's due when Quetzalcoatl/Jesus/Osiris/Thoth/Viracocha get back here. He's gonna be pissed when he sees that we just threw a huge party and trashed the place instead of assessing the resources!

"Mostly Harmless". ...done.

Re:ever since moo

[u38cg]

Personally, I'm still waiting for evidence there is *one* civilisation in this galaxy.

Re:There is no god

[Brad1138]

Haven't you read the Bible? The stars and moon were created so that we can see at night, nothing more. Why would there be life on a bunch of night lights?

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Quiet_Desperation]

Human beings are the alien probe!

Only in Soviet Russia.

And man, we had better start compiling that report that's due when Quetzalcoatl/Jesus/Osiris/Thoth/Viracocha

I think Xenu was the project manager on that one.

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[bazorg]

So you are saying that our whole freaking planet is a reality show? agh!

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[jgostling]

We've trashed nothing. The whole point of sending us here is the development of global warming technology so they can actually inhabit the planet when they get here. We're not probes. We're just an alien-forming device.

Cheers!

Re:ever since moo

[Anonymous Struct]

Funny, that's the first thing I thought, too. I hope the friggin' Meklars aren't playing.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[r_jensen11]

Human beings are the alien probe!

Oh no! I don't want to be shoved up anything's ass!

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Damastus the WizLiz]

Couldn't you just see the pitch on that one. TV Exec 1: "We take this planet, wipe off the indigenous reptilian life. Seed it with these agressive mammals and watch the hilarity ensue." Later on it would be: "This season we are gonna crash a ship into the planet with some fake bodies and then we will skim low in some ships just to make them nervous."

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[sleigher]

That's just the money you could be saving on car insurance.

Re:ever since moo

[Anonymous Coward]

The Real problem is that we're stuck playing the Humans

Remember the parable of the G'Gugvuntts and Vl'hur

[seyyah]

When thinking of whether we humans would be able to detect the arrival of an alien probe, we should all mediate on the parable of the G'Gugvuntts and Vl'hurgs:

... [t]he two opposing battle fleets decided to settle their few remaining differences in order to launch a joint attack on our galaxy, now positively identified as the source of the offending remark. For thousands of years the mighty starships tore across the empty wastes of space and finally dived screaming on to the planet Earth - where, due to a terrible miscalculation of scale, the entire battle fleet was accidentally swallowed by a small dog. Those who study the complex interplay of cause and effect in the history of the Universe say that this sort of thing is going on all the time.

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Salgak1]

All this is assuming that we would know immediately if there were a 50-100 million year old alien probe in our solar system's backyard.

Yes. There could be half a bajillion alien probes in the Kuiper belt, transmitting the latest antics of the Earthlings right to GalaxyTV, and we'd have no idea.

OF course we'd have an idea: the RIAA and MPAA would have sent all the alien TV shows DMCA Takedown notices. . . .

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Chris Burke]

Commander Xygzymmr,

Probe designate r_jensen11 appears to be defective. We should pick him up on our next maintenance run for reprogramming. Recommend Regimen 7: "Probe 'em till he'd rather be the probe".

- Engineer Morpsyx

Re:Assumptions

[Chris Burke]

you can say people are bad at somethings, but everyone has to admit we're really good at killing other stuff

Or we'll kill them.

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[kjllmn]

At last things make sense!

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Mister Whirly]

Yes, and unfortunately the ratings are abysmal. We will be lucky if we don't get canceled mid-season.

Re:What if...

[Xaedalus]

Please tell me they clean the numbers first?

Re:Too Many Free Variables

[Anonymous Coward]

I distinctly hear an apostrophe in that phrase!

Re:ever since moo

[euxneks]

Personally, I'm still waiting for evidence there is *one* civilisation in this galaxy.

OH SNAP! You certainly told humanity! On a post on Slashdot no less!

Re:Civilizations?

[Philip K Dickhead]

How fast did the Borg spread? Can't we use that as a rough estimate?

Well, MS-DOS 1.0 dates to 1982, and Windows 3.0 was released in May 1990. Windows NT 3.5 was in Sept 1994 - 'tho' I had a Beta one year earlier...

At that rate we'd be screwed!

But I see a plateau after Windows XP. It looks like the transition from a numerically incremental taxonomy slowed them down somewhat.

Perhaps we've breathing room, and time to plan our counter offensive?

Re:Orion's Arm - not so much

[Anonymous Coward]

Visit Orion's Arm for an idea of what really, really bad 3D modelling and rendering might look like. Sheesh. Perhaps the discussion is a bit better, but the "artwork" galleries are ludicrously bad. The 640x480 renders of spaceships made of spheres and cylinders with ridiculously bad tiled textures leave a bit to be desired. And it looks like Bryce & Poser are still the tools du jour for amateur sci-fi artists everywhere. Oh, look! A female model with enormous breasts and blue skin... she's an alien! Oh, and there are also self-referential (in some cases recursive) poser images where previous bad renders are used as wall hangings in later bad renders. It is difficult to take a site seriously (even as serious amateurs) when the trappings surrounding the content (and comprise the content) are mostly beyond amateur and delve into the completely childish or sophomoric. This is the same reason why Ray Kurzweil is perceived as being just shy of a complete flake: his serious ideas are dragged into the gutter by efforts such as "Ramona." Why is it that geeks can't explore the societal and cultural impacts of technology without drifting off into nude 3D models with exaggerated anatomy? Of course, we may eventually find out that even advanced alien cultures can't leave a white board unattended for five minutes without some moron drawing a cock (or their cock-equivalent) on it.