US Declares Public Health Emergency Over Swine Flu 695
mallumax sends word from the NYTimes that US government officials today declared a public health emergency over increasing cases of the swine flu first seen in Mexico. Here is additional coverage from CNN. From the Times: "American health officials [say]... that they had confirmed 20 cases of the disease in the United States and expected to see more as investigators fan out to track down the path of the outbreak. Other governments around the world stepped up their response to the incipient outbreak, racing to contain the infection amid reports of potential new cases from New Zealand to Hong Kong to Spain, raising concerns about the potential for a global pandemic. The cases in US looked to be similar to the deadly strain of swine flu that has killed more than 80 people in Mexico and infected 1,300 more." Reader "The man who walks in the woods" sends a link to accounts emailed to the BBC from readers in Mexico. While these are anecdotal, they do paint a picture of a more serious situation than government announcements have indicated so far.
God damn... (Score:5, Funny)
...Mexican swines!
Re:God damn... (Score:4, Insightful)
...Mexican swines!
Isn't 'swine' both singular and plural, like 'deer'?
Re:God damn... (Score:5, Funny)
Not if you want god to damn them all.
You want them all damned - you say swines just to make sure.
Or he might damn just one swine and then where would we be? Back at square one, that's where.
Re:God damn... (Score:5, Funny)
Not if you want god to damn them all.
You want them all damned - you say swines just to make sure. Or he might damn just one swine and then where would we be? Back at square one, that's where.
GCC (God's Communication Compiler) Compiling...
Error Line 1: Unrecognized token 'swines'
That doesn't seem very intelligent to me (Score:5, Funny)
Design that is.
Re:That doesn't seem very intelligent to me (Score:5, Funny)
Re:That doesn't seem very intelligent to me (Score:5, Funny)
That tends to happen when you attempt to use a snake as your intermediary with God. Just be happy he doesn't get pissed off enough to toss your ass out on the street and foreclose on your home... assuming he hasn't.
Wonderful (Score:4, Funny)
I can't wait till someone comes in my pharmacy and coughs this all over me. /pharmacist
Re:Wonderful (Score:5, Funny)
I can't wait till someone comes in my pharmacy and coughs this all over me. /pharmacist
Did you take a job as a pharmacist only expecting to talk to healthy and attractive people?
Not necessarily over-reacting (Score:5, Insightful)
Actually... (Score:3, Interesting)
Making the public slightly paranoid can help prevent the spread of the flu.
You would get your resources wasted and your hospitals swarmed with everyone who feels a bit tired or has a cough.
And there is no better place to catch a disease than a crowded hospital.
Well... except maybe going for a swim in the local sewer.
From the TFA:
Officials said they had confirmed eight cases in New York, seven in California, two in Kansas, two in Texas and one in Ohio, and that the cases looked to be similar to the deadly strain of swine flu that has killed more than 80 people in Mexico and infected 1,300 more.
So far, there have been no deaths from swine flu in the United States, and only one of the people who tested positive for the disease has been hospitalized, officials said.
19 people out of 306 million found to have something like the disease that has killed 80 in Mexico.
1 of those 19 was actually kept in the hospital while others were sent home.
Also...
In the United States, the C.D.C. confirmed that eight students of a high school in Queens had been infected with swine flu, the first confirmed cases in New York City, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said at a news conference on Sunday. Mr. Bloomberg said that all of the cases had been mild and hospitals in the city had not seen more patients with severe lung infections.
.
.
About 100 students at St. Francis Preparatory School in Fresh Meadows, Queens, became sick in the last few days, and some family members have also taken ill. Mr. Bloomberg said the school would be closed on Monday, and that officials would then reassess whether to reopen the school.
Yes... those 8 cases are all from that school.
Note the numbers.
8 people ac
Re:Not necessarily over-reacting (Score:5, Interesting)
I caught a few minutes of a press conference on CNN. Janet Napolitano, the Secretary of Homeland Security started it by saying something to the effect of 'this makes things sound worse than they are, but it allows us to activate public health resources'.
So perhaps the vocabulary is poor, but the reaction doesn't really resemble crying wolf.
What's next? (Score:3, Funny)
What's next - flying pig flu?
Re:What's next? (Score:5, Informative)
Chickens, Pigs, and Humans. In some parts of the world, they are in close proximity to each other.
The influenza variants that can attack either of these three animals are very similar to each other, but not identical.
So, normally a bird flu only affects birds, for example.
However, flu viruses are extremely mutagenic, and in reality mutate constantly.
A problem with flu vaccines is they must be made from a strain that exists in early summer (to have time to make enough) but there is a strong chance that the virus will have mutated enough by the winter that the vaccine is not as effective, or has no effectiveness.
Every once in a while, because of the similarity, a mutation will happen that allows that particular strain to cross a barrier; a bird flu might mutate into one that can infect pigs, for example.
Or a swine flu may mutate to one that can infect humans. Since it is a new strain, no-one has antibodies to fight it.
The 1918/1919 strain killed between 2 and 20% of those infected. A normal flu fatality rate is about 0.1%.
Similarly, the 1918/1919 strain tended to fell healthy adults under 65 with a majority between 20 and 40, and not those under 2 or over 70 who comprise the majority of more ordinary strains' fatal victims. It is this tendency that is most alarming with the current outbreak.
A mutation of the 1918/1919 variant is called "swine flu" and is common in pigs today. That particular strain cannot infect humans. It was previously believed that the 1918/1919 strain was originally a swine flu, but recent research suggests it mutated from a bird flu. No one really knows for sure, however.
The country that best handled the risk in 1918/1919 was Japan, who issued strict travel limits, and had a mortality rate of just over twice the normal at 0.425%. Island nations who did not do so suffered fatality rates of 5% and more.
Re:What's next? (Score:5, Funny)
Probably Kung-flu.
Thanks, I'll be here all week, DON'T try the pork!
Mod Points! (Score:5, Funny)
Pigs in Spaaaaccceeee! (Score:4, Funny)
Why is it that every time I hear "swine flu", I think this is nothing more than a really old rerun of the muppet show....maybe Gonzo will show up and save us all!
Bacon: the viral killer (Score:4, Funny)
OVER 60 MILLION GOT SERVED, Mexico, Friday (NNN) — A new strain of swine flu, H1N1, has killed up to 60 people in Mexico.
The virus is a mixture of swine, bird, human and computer viruses [today.com]. Symptoms include fever, fatigue, lack of appetite, popup ads, coughing, sore throat, a slow connection and an urge to throw one's computer out of a high window. The disease is thought to have started as a Windows virus on 4chan, a CIA entrapment message board for online activists, and can spread using the current Windows 7 beta.
Center for Disease Control officials looked at their huge stockpiles of H5N1 bird flu vaccine and said, "... shit."
Citizens have panicked at the prospect of bacon being put into quarantine and substituted with some soy-based shit. "Damn that Conficker!" shouted R. MacDonald of San Bernardino, California. "Damn it all to Hell!"
"This comment from me looks photoshopped," said Bruce Schneier, an American computer security expert safely employed over in the UK. "I can tell by the pixels and having seen a lot of shops in my time. I suspect this is the work of a viral botnet spider agent replicating Trojan comments across news services until their functionality is completely destroyed. WHATEVER YOU, DO DON'T LOAD OR READ MY COMMENT. p.s.: I love you."
Insufferably smug Macintosh user Arty Phagge was sanguine. "We know how to use condoms. And I'm a vegetarian." The Free Software Foundation announced the launch of OpenSwine, a disease generation and detection kit available for all to use and develop in perpetuity.
Britain will be protected from the swine flu virus by comprehensive filtering of the British internet, shutting it down entirely as needed. "Would you want your husbands, your servants, accessing the Internet?" asked Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. "I put it to you that you would not."
Captain Trips! (Score:5, Funny)
It has arrived. Evil people start moving toward Vegas. Good people will be found in Colorado.
Who has been talking to you? The Old Lady or the Walking Man?
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Captain Trips! (Score:4, Funny)
I heard they go well with telephone sanitizers. Maybe if you build a ship for them, and tell them some bullshit story about a great adventure...
Not terrible surprising (Score:4, Interesting)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Souvenir (Score:4, Funny)
And there I was wondering what to bring back from the US as a souvenir when I go there next week...
Re:Souvenir (Score:5, Funny)
Herpes will last longer.
Re:Souvenir (Score:4, Funny)
Max Brooks was right (Score:3, Insightful)
Mexico hovers on martial law and the US declares emergency. Government responses will be increasingly strong before they admit the truth of the zombie uprising.
Swine flu, my butt. It's the Solanum virus and we won't know until it's too late to contain.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Things are falling apart pretty rapidly here in Arnette TX. Yesterday in the supermarket there were two guys fighting over the last can of tinned pineapple. They started shoving, then one smashed the other in the face with the tin, grabbed his basket and left him on the floor clutching his bloody face.
The national guard finally arrived this morning, but they seem more interested in keeping control of the food than in protecting anyone from the rioters.
I've got that old saying stuck in my head, the one about
"Public Health Emergency" - burocratic for now (Score:5, Insightful)
Just to note... declaring a 'Public Health Emergency' sounds all kinds of doom&gloom-y, but doing so simply enables measures to be taken more quickly, more easily, etc.
"We are declaring today a public health emergency," Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano said today at a White House news briefing. That declaration is "standard operating procedure," Napolitano said. "It is similar to what we do when we see a hurricane approaching a site. The hurricane might not actually hit but allows you to take a number of preparatory steps. We really don't know ultimately what the size or seriousness of this outbreak is going to be." - webmd.com
It's when the CDC starts issuing emergencies, quarantining local communities, ordering a halt to any and all traffic into / out of certain areas, etc. that you should start raising eyebrows.
Immune system overreacting (Score:4, Interesting)
Here's a question for somebody who knows the immune system:
Apparently this flu is so deadly because the immune system overreacts (cytokine storm) and destroys more than just the virus. Would intentionally weakening the immune system then increase ones chances of surviving? From what I've read, it seems both sugar and alcohol would have an immediate weakening effect on the immune system. So to increase the chance of survival if infected: lots of sugar and alcohol?
Re:Immune system overreacting (Score:5, Informative)
Cytokines are signaling proteins. They're used by cells to tell the body that the cells in the area are inflamed, which causes the immune system to react in those areas. In a cytokine storm, the immune system scrams and releases proteins to counter the feedback, but overcompensates, causing the cells to release more. The levels eventually reach critical mass, to the point that it disrupts many other cellular activities, which eventually leads to death.
In individuals who are immunocompromised, a cytokine storm can still happen, and it is more often lethal. Instead of the storm being a positive feedback loop, it's just a feedforward system; the body just produces so many cytokines that it disrupts ordinary function, and the immune system is not able to overcome the level of cytokines to stop the cascade.
However, there are drugs that exist that directly effect the creation and level of cytokines in the system, which is where intentionally weakening the immune system will help. Many drugs that work to prevent damage done by chronic inflammation will help, e.g. steroids, ACE inhibitors and anti-TNF-α drugs. [Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha is a cytokine]. Given along with influenza viral inhibitors (oseltamivir, zanamivir), these drugs should reduce mortality rates.
Sometime in the (Star Trek) future, we will find out which proteins are part of these Flu viruses are causing this cytokine action, and we can target it directly to stop a cytokine storm in flu cases. We already have leads on some of them, including genes PA, PB1 & PB2 in relation to nucleoproteins found in some flu viruses, including the Spanish Flu. Drugs like it may eventually become so common place to where it will be used to reduce the symptoms of the common flu in moderate to severe cases.
We cant all die off yet (Score:5, Funny)
Its not 2012...
worry in october, not now (Score:5, Informative)
recall that the spanish flu of 1918 came out in the summer, and was mild
http://science.nationalgeographic.com/science/health-and-human-body/human-diseases/next-killer-flu.html [nationalgeographic.com]
then the cold weather came, and it came down like a scythe. we will experience media hype for a month or two, the swine flu will be forgotten, then it will suddenly resurge like crazy in october. the reason is the flu virus actually survives better in the cold air than the warm air, and travels greater distances. the warm summer air will help us fight the flu, for now. there was science a few months ago that proved that:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7276447.stm [bbc.co.uk]
thats why flu is always a cold month thing
so the thing to do is not worry now, worry later. the warm weather will mitigate the flu. then we should all keep a very wary eye come october, that's when the swine flu will prove if it is a superkiller or not
one more concern:
the cytokine storm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm [wikipedia.org]
this explains why those who died of the spanish flu, and are dying of swine flu now, are young, healthy adults. perversely, the healthier you are, the more you will be prone to die of the swine flu: your body overreacts, like anaphylactic shock. less healthy immune systems mean you underreact, and your lungs aren't flooded to death by your won body. the very young, and the very old, they should be able to weather the swine flu. the worst case scenario (hopefully this just fizzles out like SARS), it is us in the prime of life, 25-45, who will bear the brunt of mortality when everyone gets it this fall, hospitals are swamped, and the tamiflu runs out. then you have children and elderly with no breadwinners to take care of them
prepare now, you have until fall until the scythe comes (hopefully, it won't, it could still fizzle out)
absolutely (Score:5, Insightful)
the flu can still spread in warm climates, flu in fact is a regular feature of the tropics. but in warm weather you will see more close contact cases, cases among families, cases among office workers cube-to-cube. long term close contact being needed in the warmth. not random walking-by-on-the-sidewalk transmission, like you will get with cold weather
the whole point is not that the summer months will destroy or prevent the swine flu. the problem is it will still spread, but at a lower background noise rate. seeping all around in tiny little clusters
then the weather gets cold, and the flu will suddenly leap out of all of these tiny below the radar clusters, and expand exponentially in a matter of days, and suddenly be everywhere at the same time, with falling temperatures
seriously, worry come october for us in the northern mid-latitudes
or, alternately, if you are in the far north (in a populated area, rare), or in the soutern hemisphere as your winter approaches, worry now
Define Irony (Score:5, Funny)
Checking Slashdot and finding this article at the top?
Right next to the poll, "How long do you expect to live?"
Re:Define Irony (Score:4, Insightful)
Environmental Factors? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
> Sorry to point out the obvious here but Mexico City is located more then a mile above
> sea level (higher elevation then Denver). Could environmental factors be the reason that
> people are dying of respritory complications in Mexico
Do cities at high elevations normally see a much higher than average death rate from influenza?
Those comments are horrifying (Score:5, Informative)
As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were.
I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks.
I am a doctor and I work in the State of Mexico. We doctors knew this was happening a week before the alert was issued and were told to get vaccinated.
In the capital of my state, Oaxaca, there is a hospital closed because of a death related to the porcine influenza. Many friends working in hospitals or related fields say that the situation is really bad, they are talking about 19 people dead in Oaxaca, including a doctor and a nurse. They say they got shots but they were told not to talk about the real situation.
Two of my friends at work are sick, they were sick for a couple of days, they went to the hospital and they sent them back to work. The doctor told them it was just a flu until Friday when the alarm was spread, then they were allowed to go home. I work in a call centre and I'm worried because there are no windows in the building so it cannot be ventilated and around 400 people work there. We all have talked to our supervisor but no one has done anything not even sterilise or disinfect the area. We will be sick soon and, well, do the math - 400 can infect at least another two per day.
The advice from the CDC (Score:5, Informative)
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/whatsnew.htm?s_cid=tw_epr_68 [cdc.gov] http://twitter.com/CDCemergency [twitter.com]
CDC page pasted into comment:
What is swine flu?
Swine Influenza (swine flu) is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza viruses that causes regular outbreaks in pigs. People do not normally get swine flu, but human infections can and do happen. Swine flu viruses have been reported to spread from person-to-person, but in the past, this transmission was limited and not sustained beyond three people.
Are there human infections with swine flu in the U.S.?
In late March and early April 2009, cases of human infection with swine influenza A (H1N1) viruses were first reported in Southern California and near San Antonio, Texas. Other U.S. states have reported cases of swine flu infection in humans and cases have been reported internationally as well. An updated case count of confirmed swine flu infections in the United States is kept at http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/investigation.htm [cdc.gov]CDC and local and state health agencies are working together to investigate this situation.
Is this swine flu virus contagious?
CDC has determined that this swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is contagious and is spreading from human to human. However, at this time, it not known how easily the virus spreads between people.
What are the signs and symptoms of swine flu in people?
The symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to the symptoms of regular human flu and include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue. Some people have reported diarrhea and vomiting associated with swine flu. In the past, severe illness (pneumonia and respiratory failure) and deaths have been reported with swine flu infection in people. Like seasonal flu, swine flu may cause a worsening of underlying chronic medical conditions.
How does swine flu spread?
Spread of this swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is thought to be happening in the same way that seasonal flu spreads. Flu viruses are spread mainly from person to person through coughing or sneezing of people with influenza. Sometimes people may become infected by touching something with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth or nose.
How can someone with the flu infect someone else?
Infected people may be able to infect others beginning 1 day before symptoms develop and up to 7 or more days after becoming sick. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick.
What should I do to keep from getting the flu?
First and most important: wash your hands. Try to stay in good general health. Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious food. Try not touch surfaces that may be contaminated with the flu virus. Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
Are there medicines to treat swine flu?
Yes. CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with these swine influenza viruses. Antiviral drugs are prescription medicines (pills, liquid or an inhaler) that fight against the flu by keeping flu viruses from reproducing in your body. If you get sick, antiviral drugs can make your illness milder and make you feel better faster. They may also prevent serious flu complications. For treatment, antiviral drugs work best if started soon after getting sick (within 2 days of symptoms).
How long can an infected person spread swine
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
Those thousands that die are among hundreds of thousands or more who get infected. This strain has infected far fewer people, yet killed more of them, so the mortality rate is much higher.
If infection became widespread, as was the case in 1918, then we could be looking at serious losses.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
The 1918 flu pandemic (commonly referred to as the Spanish flu) was an influenza pandemic that spread to nearly every part of the world. It was caused by an unusually virulent and deadly Influenza A virus strain of subtype H1N1. Historical and epidemiologic data are inadequate to identify the geographic origin of the virus.[1] Most of its victims were healthy young adults, in contrast to most influenza outbreaks which predominantly affect juvenile, elderly, or otherwise weakened patients. The pandemic lasted from March 1918 to June 1920, spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. It is estimated that anywhere from 20 to 100 million people were killed worldwide.
While we, at least industrialized countries, are far better equipped to deal with another major outbreak than in 1918; I feel taking precautions would be the rational thing to do.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
While we, at least industrialized countries, are far better equipped to deal with another major outbreak than in 1918; I feel taking precautions would be the rational thing to do.
Don't be so sure about it my friend. My parents work in the NHS. The procedure for a flu pandemic assumes that society will collapse, which will likely be a reasonable assessment. All the preparations have been aimed at H5N1, so though the anti-virals stockpiled will most likely work*, the vaccines will not**.
I think this one is the real deal. The death rate is high, considering it's in Mexico, which may not be on a par with the UK in medical treatment but isn't sub-Saharan Africa or rural China either.
The BBC is quoting doctors as saying that this has been around for a week. If people in Mexico City are expressing symptoms, you can bet it's around the world now, by people carrying it during its incubation period. I live in London, and I bet you a tenner that someone, somewhere in this city has this right now.
*There are some reports that anti-virals are ineffective, I think they're hysteria.
**They probably wouldn't have anyway.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
*There are some reports that anti-virals are ineffective, I think they're hysteria.
The US Centers for Disease Control say the following [cdc.gov]:
"There are four different antiviral drugs that are licensed for use in the US for the treatment of influenza: amantadine, rimantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. While most swine influenza viruses have been susceptible to all four drugs, the most recent swine influenza viruses isolated from humans are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine. At this time, CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with swine influenza viruses."
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
Oseltamivir is the one the NHS has stockpiled, under the brand Tamiflu.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Funny)
> Don't be so sure about it my friend. My parents work in the NHS. The procedure for a flu
> pandemic assumes that society will collapse
I'd be willing to bet you quite a large amount of money that it won't (think about that for a minute before you answer).
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Interesting)
>Don't be so sure about it my friend. My parents work in the NHS.
>The procedure for a flu pandemic assumes that society will
> collapse, which will likely be a reasonable assessment.
Uh, "society will collapse" is a "reasonable assessment"?! Did society collapse in 1918? I don't recall reading about it. Why is it any more likely now, with far better supportive care, and far better understanding of the causes? This is ridiculous, "society" in some form has managed to exist for at least ~8000 years, through a lot worse epidemics than this.
Brett
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
Is 7% a "high" death rate?
Wikipedia has normal flu mortality at 0.1%.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Insightful)
Is 7% a "high" death rate?
Wikipedia has normal flu mortality at 0.1%.
Which is pretty much the number of people who are always within a few months of death because of age and/or illness.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Insightful)
Which is pretty much the number of people who are always within a few months of death because of age and/or illness.
Which is the difference between the "normal" flu, which kills infants and old people, and any of the historical "pandemic" flus, which killed young and middle-aged adults.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Informative)
First-hand reports from doctors in Mexico City (Score:5, Interesting)
There are first-hand reports that the number of fatalities reported publicly and the mortality rate are under-reported in the news. Emails to the BBC [bbc.co.uk] from doctors and others in Mexico tell a different story than we're getting from the Mexican government and the CDC- here are two of the most interesting:
I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.
There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City
I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Davila, Mexico City
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Informative)
Mortality rate was -only- 2.5% of those infected during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. A normal flu is something like .1% of those infected.
Even with the 'official' death statistics - 80 out of 1380 - the death toll is about 5.7%. That's fucking huge, yet unofficial reports are claiming as high as 2-3x as many as the official death count (such as in the OP's linked article).
This is almost beyond scary.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Insightful)
We don't really know the carrying capacity of the Earth, and at any rate allowing billions to die isn't a valid solution by any reasonable moral standard.
Continued growth with the current trends is the real problem, but even then there are much more humane solutions than allowing the horrors of history to continue to work their course. Raising the level of development in a region tends to cause a decrease in the birthrate, so much so that Europe is having the opposite problem, so continued efforts to develop poorer states (and, coincidentally, mitigate these kinds of pandemics) is the best way to keep populations under control.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Insightful)
Religion was invented to explain and exploit our existing "morals". "Thou shall not kill" did not come from God it came from a man who was expressing what billions of years of evolution has made him think. Sure you can attempt to rationalise these inate morals away but if you manage to that then you will probably be classified as a phycopath or at the very least a sociopath.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Insightful)
That's interesting. So your statement preemptively declares all opposing positions as being "unreasonable".
If the only opposing position we're talking about is deliberately standing by and allowing millions of people to die from a relatively easily preventable cause, then yes, I don't have a problem with preemptively calling that immoral.
Why is death by disease immoral?
Its not, but a large number of deaths by an easily prevented disease is (or should be).
Why is not making extraordinary efforts to treat the diseases of others immoral?
This entirely depends on how we define "extraordinary".
By who's standard other than yours?
If enough people agree with it, then it doesn't *matter* who originated the "standard". Why did you even bother to ask this? You know darn well the GP's attitude is, in general, held by a lot of people. If this attitude wasn't widespread, the world wouldn't have nearly as many aid organizations as it does (Red Cross, CARE, Doctors Without Borders, et cetera ad nauseum).
If you are a religious person
I'm not religious, I'm just a rather ordinary member of that very social species we call "homo sapiens", who, when he sees or hears of another member of the same species dying a pointless death, has the guts to think of more than just himself and ask himself the question "What if that was me?".
You don't need "religion" to see the GP's point of view, you just have to have the ability to "put yourself in someone else's shoes", so to speak.
Of course, I'm also a realist, and I know that despite my opinion, "immoral" behavior such as standing by while others are lost to easily preventable deaths will continue, for all sorts of reasons, with, I suspect, the main reason being that for every person who asks themselves the question "What if that was me?" in the above situation, there is at least one other person who doesn't think about anything beyond their initial reaction of "Whew! Glad that wasn't me!". Well, no one has ever accused humanity of being homogeneous. :)
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Interesting)
Most of the deaths in Mexico were young adults. From the WSJ:
"Mexican health authorities said the death toll from the new strain of A/H1N1 swine flu remains at 20, and they are continuing to investigate whether more than 1,000 others were infected with the mysterious bug, which attacked in three geographically diverse areas of the country and is taking its heaviest toll in young adults."
Imagine it's scary for you too. Because it is.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
It's a new strain of "swine" flu (only called that because it originated in swine) that contains elements of bird, human, and swine flu viruses. It is transmitted between humans. Stop spreading misinformation.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Informative)
That isn't what happened in 1918. Nothing tangible has changed since then in regards to how a flu pandemic affects us; we have a very limited capacity to vaccinate against every strain of influenza.
Every false alarm is essentially meaningless; the one time it isn't a false alarm, we really do need to react. When that happens, not acting quickly will cost lives. The 1918 outbreak infected a billion (half the population at the time) and killed upwards of a hundred million; a similar outbreak today might kill anywhere from 120-600 million. If the mortality rate does hit the double digits, and we've done nothing up until that point, we're fucked.
Also, you are badly misinformed about the nature of the casualties this time around. Most flu outbreaks only kill the old, the young and the immune compromised. This one killed healthy adults.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
Adding to the nuisance, is the fact that flu strains can swap components with one another to produce exotic variants quickly. Pigs are excellent for that, because they have their own strains, and some degree of susceptibility to certain avian and human strains.
It might well burn itself out; but it would be a pity if it were the start of Spanish flu 2.0 (now with high speed air travel!).
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
Don't they have their own exotic diseases to worry about?
And this has an effect on the spread of this particular disease because...?
islamic countries
Less likely than China. Personal contact is already kept at a minimum.
No offense intended, but what the fuck are you talking about? In my experience, people in Muslim countries are more hands on than most western countries: greetings involve long handshakes, several kisses on the cheeks, hugs, and so on. Men are much less self-conscious about hugging, holding hands, or putting their arms over each other's shoulders (all out of friendship, so spare us the "OMG THEY ALL HAVE TEH GAY" comments). All in all, you will probably find much more interpersonal contact. I can only assume that the reason you see it as less is because of the extreme gender divide that exists in those countries.
Not to defend Mr. Coward's idiotic comments, but yours are equally uniformed.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Interesting)
Yes, this flu is different. It is primarily killing young healthy adults. It looks to work the same way as the 1918 flu, killing those with the healthiest immune systems through the "cytokine storm".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W_curve.png [wikipedia.org]
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
This flu kills healthy people by causing fluid buildup in the lungs.
So, yes, quit smoking!
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Funny)
> Why does this one have a special name?
a) It is genetically different from the usual flus.
b) In 1918 a form of swine flu killed millions.
> I can't decide how scared to be.
So far it seems to kill only Mexicans. I suppose you could construct a conspiracy theory around that.
> As if there were anything I could do about it anyways.
Avoid people. They're dangerous.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Insightful)
The flu kills thousands of people every year. Why does this one have a special name?
So far it seems to have a 5% mortality rate, which is above normal. Usually mortality is 5% of those hospitalized, rather than 5% of all. Of course, the stats are from small numbers that are very new, so we'll have to wait for better information. It's certainly worth paying attention to though.
I can't decide how scared to be. As if there were anything I could do about it anyways.
If everyone would make an extra effort to wash their hands, cover their nose/mouth when coughing, and stay the f*** home from work/school when you are sick, that would help. If you can slow the spread, researchers can get a better understanding of the flu and how to treat it before everyone gets sick.
Avian flu still seems much worse though, since it has a much higher mortality rate, in particular among the young. It doesn't seem to be able to spread as fast though, thus the concern about this new flu.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Interesting)
What is really valuable about this is that it looks to be a fairly safe, almost ideal model for the real thing. A test for how competently a pandemic is managed locally. Listening to the news this morning (we are 16 hours ahead of the US), our authorities seem to have concentrated all their efforts in micromanaging the school threat, and ignored contamination of everyone else on the plane. Provided the officials stay inside the school, they should be safe.
Personally, I'd prefer a bunch of veterinarians running it who aren't allowed to shoot and burn. At least they have a holistic approach. However, I'm getting old and cynical. Younger people seem to prefer touchy-feely sorry-about-the-megadeaths administrators.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Interesting)
stay the f*** home from work/school when you are sick, that would help
If only it were that easy. Even when I'm ill with things that make me unable to work (such as vomiting every half hour) employers tend to be unsympathetic, even more so when its something where you feel miserable and are sick with something contagious (such as normal influenza), making staying at home little more than a dream. Schools aren't much better and sometimes much worse. For example, school nurses usually have a set fever number where they will not send kids home if they don't reach it (such as 100 degrees) and so even when you are visibly sick, feeling miserable but yet can't hit the magical 100 degree fever, you are stuck in school transmitting whatever you have. And most parents send students to school even with high fevers, when kids are visibly sick, and even when they are vomiting.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Insightful)
Good point; I should have added "If your employer has a halfway decent policy, ...". In tech fields, most employers do have a reasonable policy; however in many service fields, the written or unwritten policies are not nearly as accommodating.
For any employers out there, make sure sick people can stay home, since it is better to lose their (partial) productivity for day, rather than to make the whole office sick.
Re:About covering your mouth... (Score:4, Informative)
The CDC actually advises to use a tissue and throw away as a preference, and the sleeve only if you don't have tissues available.
"Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it. "
See: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm [cdc.gov]
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Insightful)
If you'd take a little time to read about it... yes, it's 'really' special.
I'm not saying "ZOMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE"-special - we're not, as it is, many of those infected happily survive.
Let's start with 'the flu', though.. There is no 'the flu'. Influenza is a big ol' family of viruses.
This one - although it baffles me why the media latched onto 'swine' as their name for it, maybe the pork industry lobbied strongly against naming it 'pork' or 'pig' flu - is one of the mutations of form H1N1 ('bird flu' was H5N1; H and N refer to certain protein types). That only tells part of the story as there's multiple H1N1s with different aminoacids and whatnot, like yea olde Spanish flu (yeah, the proper pandemic one) was H1N1 as well. There's the first 'special' bit; it shares a name with the Spanish flu.
Won't go into details about how it differs from Spanish flu - suffice it to say that this particular strain of H1N1 influenza appears to be a mixture of porcine, bird and human flu viruses' RNA. From there comes the second 'special' bit. It's 'rare' that the flu jumps species from pigs to humans in general, even rarer for it to thrive, but even more rare that it appears to spread between humans.
Now for the third special bit... even H5N1 - that other 'big scare' - mostly affected the (really) young, the elderly, and the weak in terms of severity. This one, however, seems to just as happily make young healthy adults sick.
That's why it deserves its own little name. As for how scared you should be:
'Swine' flu responds well to the relatively recent anti-flu drug Oseltamivir (marketing name: Tamiflu). That is to say, it gets killed pretty quickly and eradicated from the body if treatment is followed through (yeah, I know, right?). That's good news for the producers of Tamiflu who love having this in the news, and for their shareholders who saw their stock skyrocket as a result. It's pretty special that there's tons of people out there just waiting around to make money off of this kind of thing.
Oh, and it's also good news for those infected, of course.
Unfortunately, Tamiflu (and others) are prescribed willy-nilly as seasonal flu drugs (despite the CDC advising against it; like 'advice' matters if there's a mint to be made), making it all the more likely that more resistant strains will pop up in due time.
At the same time, being a relatively recent drug, not all of the side-effects are fully known and understood yet.
As for what you can do about it...
- I wouldn't plan a trip to Mexico and go frolic with any pigs if I were you.
- I wouldn't swap spit/etc. with any of the students already diagnosed as being possibly infected.
- If you are infected with any type of flu.. cover your mouth when sneezing/coughing, wash hands regularly. Won't do much for you, but it'll help prevent spreading of it.
Speaking of the CDC.. they have some pretty decent pages up as well:
http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/general_info.htm [cdc.gov]
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Informative)
Skyrocket, eh? Gilead Sciences [google.com], which developed Tamiflu/Oseltamivir, and Roche [google.com], which markets it, haven't moved much since the outbreak started on March 18 [wikipedia.org] (although this was apparently assumed to be regular flu for a few days, so it's hard to tell when people would have noticed this, although there is a weird spike in volume on March 18 even though the price barely moved (there was also a similar spike the last two days this week, but the price dropped 10%)). Further, the price hasn't moved much during any identifiable period I can see; GILD had an 8% bounce over two days at the beginning of April (which it has now lost), but this is much smaller movement than what was seen in January and February.
On the other hand Zanamivir (trade name Relenza), developped by Biota [google.com] and marketed by GlaxoSmithKline [google.com] has seen some movement. GSK, like Roche and GILD, had some movement since March 18 but nothing out of the ordinary (10% max movement and 0% net over the period), especially compared to the previous two months. Biota, on the other hand, has jumped nearly 40% this week, and has had an identifiable volume jump this week. Is this related to the pandemic? Maybe, but the company released a press release [abnnewswire.net] Thursday saying its royalties from Relenza for the first three months of 2009 (mostly before the swine flu) were sixteen times greater than the average royalties over the preceding two 3-month periods, and market regulators are wondering [theage.com.au] if there was some insider trading going on that anticipated the report. That's certainly likely to affect the price independent of the swine flu.
Since the price of any of these shares has not skyrocketed as you claimed, and arguably may have gone down, depending when you decide the information could have been reasonably public that people could have figured out to invest in these companies, it seems the opportunity for these people waiting around to make money is still there. Perhaps as someone thinking about these things without looking at any facts, maybe you should just jump right in.
P.S. Don't forget to check out the next season of The Sarah Connor Chronicles this fall on FOX.
I wouldn't particularly worry (Score:5, Insightful)
Do all the normal prudent things like wash your hands plenty, try not to stand next to the guy coughing up a lung, etc. Keep up on the situation on the CDC's website, not on random places like Slashdot. The reason is that the Internet has a LOT of doomsdayers, if you haven't noticed. They are always after the next thing that's going to fuck us over. The one I remember most recently was when there were stories of cable cuts in mid east, doomsdayers said this meant the US was going to invade Iran in a couple days, Bush would declare marshal law, and the election would be suspended. Ya well, we all see how much of that happened.
So get your info from a reliable source. The CDC is interested in keeping people safe and stopping the spread of this (and all other) disease. They are also staffed with experts. People on random forums often have no idea what the fuck they are talking about, like to blow things up, and predict the end of the world every other month.
Only thing special to do maybe is make sure you've got flu food. By that I mean things like chicken noodle soup and such. If you get sick you probably aren't going to feel like shopping (and shouldn't go shopping since you don't want to spread your sickness) and you also aren't likely to feel like eating pizza and such.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Cashflow permitting, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea at this point to begin stockpiling cat food. No, seriously. Everyone with a feline child/companion knows they don't take kindly to changes in their diet. If a real, honest to god pandemic emerges, there will probably be supply-chain problems, and stores running out of things. Do you REALLY want to go on a hundred-mile quest to visit two dozen Petco and PetSmart stores until you find the one that still has ${your cat's food} in stock, and multiply your
Re:I wouldn't particularly worry (Score:5, Interesting)
I have a better suggestion: Beer Bread.
get a case of cheap beer and a couple of bags of cheap flour. doesn't even matter if it's self rising, but you'll get more of a traditional bread if it is.
Using the very simplest method, mix 3 cups of flour with a can of beer; don't stir it until smooth, just get the biggest lumps out.
put it in a backing container. I've used everything from breadpans to tinfoil bent to approximately the right shape and hot coals from a fire.
Oven at 375f for about an hour.
Eat. freak out at how good it tastes, smells. Watch your friends drool uncontrollably at the smell.
it gets better if you it "properly", but as stated it's damned good.
Properly would be: add anything from 1 Tablespoon to a 1/2 cup sugar; type of sugar makes the taste highly variable, I like a little Turbinado ("Raw" sugar).
Butter. grease the pan with it. some people say pour some melted butter over the loaf when you 1st put it in, I wait until it looks like the top of the loaf is starting to split then pour about a 1/4 stick, melted, on top. it lets the bread continue to rise and makes the sides touching the pan get extremely tasty.
After you get jaded with the basic product, you can try changes; different beers make different tastes, (Guinness Beer Bread is unbelievable), you can add cheese to the dough, nuts, whole wheat flour, fruit, etc. Makes really interesting cinnamon rolls.
Looking at things in the context of the thread, put your flour in a airtight container in a cool place, and it'll last forever; put your beer alongside of it, the same. and you can always find other used for the beer in the post-flu apocalypse world. and making your own beer isn't hard, making your own flour just involves an extreme amount of hard work, which you can trick someone else into doing in exchange for beer.
In conclusion, here are suggestions for A Smart Geeks cheap survivalist Shopping list for Monday, April 27th, 2009: 2 SKS rifles, 1000 rounds of ammunition, 20+ lbs of flour, 8+ cases of beer, lots of multivitamins, a variety of over-the-counter drugs, Toilet Paper, feminine hygiene products (yes, even if you are a single guy. The female Mutant survivors will think you are a god) and waterproof containers for everything. If you live near a Military base, hit a surplus store and buy a couple of cases of MRE.
How was THAT for a weird post?
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Interesting)
The flu kills thousands of people every year. Why does this one have a special name?.
Flu usually kills the very old and the very young. From what I have read, this one is different; it kills young and healthy persons, a segment that rarely dies from normal flu. The so called Spanish Flu (or Grippe) from around the first world war had a very similar fatality pattern. Since that pandemic attack killed at least 50 million people around the world it is clear that this new flu must be taken very, very seriously. There doesn't seem to be that much hard evidence around regarding the symptoms though; does it attack the lungs in the same way as the Grippe? It appears that the Grippe turned peoples own immune system against themselves which is why young healthy persons with good immune systems died in such large numbers and often so violently fast.
From what little info I have seen it appears that this swine Flu attack and kills some young and healthy persons, while other victims have very mild symptoms; that is the exact same pattern as the first major wave of the Grippe. According to some researchers this attack pattern caused the Grippe virus strain to be refined to the extremely deadly strain it was when it attacked again. Some victims died within an hour of having the first symptoms, and people would literally drop dead without warning while walking in the streets, pupils in classrooms would suddenly fall over their desk dead.
--
Regards
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
> This influenza virus is a strain that utilizes pig, bird, and human genetic information.
This influenza virus is a strain that utilizes pig, bird, and human influenza genetic information.
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:5, Informative)
Nope [cdc.gov]
Re:Is this flu really "special"? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Seems like the only solution for a rational government is to outlaw all pigs. I mean think of the children!
Re:Google mashup? (Score:4, Informative)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Google mashup? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Yawn (Score:5, Insightful)
it may be 'disaster of the week' for you, but to those of us who can pay attention for more than 5 minutes will see the direct correlation between this and the 1918 epidemic that killed 50 million people world wide.
The 1918 flu was theorized to have started in Kansas around March 4th. By March 11th it was spread as far as New York City. In weeks, it had mutated into a more virulent strain that went on to kill more people than WWI had. It had killed an estimated 20 million people in 25 weeks, and that was without global air travel.
I hope that this is just a minor incident and a false alarm, but since it has already proven to be resistant to the first two of the four major flu anti-virals (the neuraminidase inhibitors - Tamiflu and Relenza are the ones that seem to be effective so far), that in and of itself is cause for concern.
And if 80+ dead in 1000+ cases worldwide so far(and they are mostly healthy and young) are not more than 'nervous hand wringing' to you, then you are a fool. Add to that, is the fact that it has spread globally in a few days, spreads person to person rather easily and the chances of finding patient zero in a place like Mexico is going to be near impossible, makes this appear to be something that is more than 'nervous hand wringing by the talking heads'
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
"And if 80+ dead in 1000+ cases worldwide so far(and they are mostly healthy and young) are not more than 'nervous hand wringing' to you, then you are a fool."
Except, um, no-one knows how many people caught this flu and had no serious problems, just like the majority of people infected outside Mexico. For all we know a million people caught it, a thousand became seriously sick and eighty died.
American experience seems to show that only a small fraction of people are seriously sick, and Mexican experience se
Re:That's it... Keep'em distracted (Score:4, Insightful)
And no, it's not "just the flu". It is a little early but it is looking eerily like the beginning of pandemic spread (late season, high mortality rate among generally healthy, H1N1). It may not be much, but the easiest, safest, cheapest method of dealing with it is rapid isolation. Like closing borders.
It may well be jumping the gun a bit, but since we are not likely to get good quality epidemiological information for weeks to months, it makes sense to potentially overreact.
Work on your tin-foil breathing mask while you have time. You can paint it black and look like Darth Vader!
Re:That's it... Keep'em distracted (Score:5, Interesting)
Honestly people, it's the flu. We get a new one every year... sometimes several. I stopped getting flu shots decades ago and have been a LOT healthier since that time...
I really hope this doesn't prove to be the "No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame" comment of pandemics.
From what I am reading, this virus is distinct in that there is no natural immunity in humans (unless, I assume, you recover), that it kills those with the strongest immune systems, and the number of known cases are doubling daily. And that it's pretty lethal, at least in Mexico. Some of the estimates by doctors in the linked story says that Mexico is underrepresenting the death toll by 10x.
Comments like "The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses" do not give me too much comfort either.
As I understand it, viruses with a higher rate of mortality burn themselves out very quickly. If this is just lethal enough that most infected people survive long enough to pass it on... but a significant number of those infected experience the cytokine storm... we could all be in serious trouble. I'd rather have the CDC and WHO overreact than under-react.
I guess we'll know soon (and that's assuming there's no dramatic mutation... there were three major waves of the 1918 pandemic as it came sweeping through the population and picked off the survivors of the previous one. The 2nd I think was the most lethal.)
W
Re:Multivitamins? (Score:5, Funny)
This virus is killing healthier people. Clearly the solution is to eat terribly and weaken your immune system.
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Google FluTrend (Score:5, Interesting)
That is absolutely NOT TRUE. Flu is considered an unstable virus. Its outer outer sheath of proteins are different all the time. BUT, this particular strain had to get its input from a number of different strains. It is POSSIBLE that a few of the genes that it picked up were from ones that CDC (and other experts) picked to be the likely strains. IOW, it is POSSIBLE that it has proteins from what was the suspected strains. At this time, it is not known EXACTLY what strains this came from.
What is more interesting, is this one has elements of Avian flu. It is possible that doing a vaccine directly against it MAY be what causes the issues, since it is current suspected that an immune storm is causing the issues.
Re:News flash! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:business question (Score:5, Insightful)
Umm, why are you asking? Are you planning on irridiating every one you might come in contact with? This is a respiratory virus - droplet transmission. Unless you're some sort of closet cannibal, I can't see why you are interested...
On second throught don't reply. I'm pretty sure I don't want to know....
Re:GERMS ARE GOOD..... (Score:5, Insightful)
> Maybe if we didn't completely sterilize every conceivable surface in out packing houses
> and restaurants, sterilize foods in radiation and chemicals, and push people to drench
> their houses in Lysol every time somebody coughed, we either wouldn't have this problem,
> or it wouldn't be as bad as it is.
"We" didn't do all that in 1918. 50 million people died. Hygiene is primarily responsible for the drastic reduction in infectious disease in the last 100 years.
Re:GERMS ARE GOOD..... (Score:4, Insightful)
"We" didn't do all that in 1918. 50 million people died. Hygiene is primarily responsible for the drastic reduction in infectious disease in the last 100 years.
IMO the middle ground is best. Except in some environments (hospitals, etc), I don't think one should go out of one's way to sanitize every conceivable surface. Washing hands is good. Spraying the telephone with lysol is paranoia and counterproductive, despite what the ads on TV say.
Also there is a growing body of evidence that kids who grow up in less sterile environments (farms, etc) grow faster and have fewer illnesses as adults than those who grow up in more sterile environments. Some of these involve experiments with raising animals in sterile environments.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
> I think this will be contained much like bird flu was.
"Bird flu" hasn't happened yet. That virus has not yet acquired the ability to pass from human to human.
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Because the notions of "alive" and "not alive" are fuzzy human definitions only partially based in distinctive underlying natural phenomena. Key attributes frequently assigned to living things are metabolism and reproduction. Viruses reproduce, but in some sense have no metabolism. Historically, folks have gone back and forth over the years on whether both attributes are needed or only one. Eventually most f