Of Late, Fewer Sunspots Than Usual 628
esocid writes "The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites. Periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual. The sun usually operates on an 11-year cycle with maximum activity occurring in the middle of the cycle. The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, with the next cycle just beginning and expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012. Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why. In the past, solar physicists observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots, coinciding with a little ice age on Earth that lasted from 1650 to 1700." (More below.)
esocid continues: "The Hinode, a Japanese satellite mission with the US and UK as partners, has three telescopes that together show how changes on the sun's surface spread through the solar atmosphere. It orbits 431 miles (694 km) above the Earth, crossing both poles and making one lap every 95 minutes, giving Hinode an uninterrupted view of the sun for several months out of the year. Scientists are not extremely worried, but have added extra ground stations in case of interference from extra solar activity, and are ready for the Sun to resume its activity." (The Little Ice Age is fascinating, full stop.)
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:5, Informative)
22 not 11 years (Score:1, Informative)
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:5, Informative)
Even if that were true, which it isn't [nasa.gov], one would expect *cooling* during this half of the cycle.
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:5, Informative)
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:4, Informative)
Insightful? Yikes!!!
Jupiter is experiencing warming NEAR THE POLES. Not the entire planet. Did you read the research behind what you are spouting? Or are you just cherry-picking the sound bites that make you point you have already 'decided' must be true.
If you decided to read it, then you surely came across the fact that "While the analysis remains to be proven, it is seen by other researchers as interesting and, importantly, testable even with large backyard telescopes."
So while evidence that is mounting in favor of the cause of the RETENTION of the heat on the planet earth, which causes it to retain heat energy in the infrared part of the spectrum, then that is just 'junk science' and needs to be pointed out how there is no hard evidence to support it.
But when the same limited data set and hypothesis is put forward that jupiter is experiencing climate change, that lack of actual evidence to prove the theory is something that can just be brushed aside for the sake of arguing against the same cirumstances on Earth that have similar holes in the data set?
Next time, you need to be able to think about what you are parroting, lest it make you like a complete fool.
Correction (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:3, Informative)
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:5, Informative)
Radiated energy is proportional to the _fourth_ power of the temperature. For a black body j = sigma * T^4, for a body that's not quite black, you just plug an emissivity factor in too.
A body heated by an external source (e.g., Earth) reaches equilibrium when the radiated energy equals the incoming energy. So the equation works just the same with j being the _incoming_ energy from the Sun.
What I'm getting at is that the average temperature of Earth is in the ballpark of 300K. We had an increase of 1K in a whole bloody century. That's the whole Global Warming. That's an increase of 0.3% or so. Plugging it back into the StefanBoltzmann law, we need an increase of only 1.003^4=1.01205 times in solar output to _fully_ explain it. That's 1.2% btw.
But even that's a bit over-calculated. Being that the same law applies to the Sun's power output, basically we just need the same 0.3% increase in the Sun's temperature to get that effect, all else being equal. You don't need anything spectacular to happen, really.
Yes, sunspots are a cause of short term variations, but we really don't know what the Sun has been gradually doing over that century. If both Jupiter _and_ Mars have been warming up, maybe the Sun is warming up after all.
And finally, well, if you're that concerned about insults to people's intelligence... maybe you should STFU with the "shut up and don't dare question the High Priests" attitude. Just a thought.
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:4, Informative)
I was thinking more like the snow in China, and the hurricane season that hasn't happened in 4 years. But oh, we're going to get more hurricanes, any day now.
I mean by satellites operated without AGW funding on the line. NASA keeps changing its historical data, as do other people.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/02/a_tale_of_two_thermometers/ [theregister.co.uk]
But really, the prediction is pretty simple. For the last six months, the earth's temperature has fallen, according to satellite measurements.
ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_1.txt [ssmi.com]
The reason given for this in AGW circles is the recently ended LaNina. If temperatures continue to fall, then, AGW theories won't stack up.
But the main point is this: I've not seen a single climate (as in non-weather event), that justifies the amount of money proposed be spent on AGW. Just give me one predicted event... and I'll see you a snow in Iraq.
Re:If the sun is quiet ... (Score:3, Informative)
Certainly determining warming/cooling on a short scale is surprisingly much argued.
Re:My TinFoil Prediction (Score:3, Informative)
Except ... (Score:5, Informative)
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:3, Informative)
Actually, they don't. All the models I am running in my datacenter are using a "solar constant" for solar energy flux, and modulate it only through albedo variations.
I have yet to see a model that takes solar variability into account. Mostly because, to be honest, we don't know much about said variability. So we'd be hard pressed to model it. Hey, give us a break, we have had satellites up there for only a few decades, and the Sun has cycles measured in centuries!
Side note: numerical simulation is a mess today. Everyone and their dog do it, with mixed results. I even came across people who write flow simulations in Excel VB (!) and manage to get budgets for this. It doesn't inspire confidence.
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:5, Informative)
Are you perhaps referring to this article from 2001 [sciam.com] which suggests that cosmic rays (which are different from emissions from the Sun, btw) intensify the effect of CFCs?
I suggest that you first read through the resources on realclimate.org on solar forcing, where it has been extensively discussed, and if you wish to dispute their findings, then please attack the science, not the scientist.
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:3, Informative)
That hasn't happened either. I work in hurricane insurance software, and it just hasn't happened.
Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:1, Informative)
Congratulations, the IPCC, UCS, and Al Gore have finally figured out another way to use you all as tools. GFG.
NASA disaggrees with you (Score:4, Informative)
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:3, Informative)
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:3, Informative)
Besides, whether it's expensive is not the question. The question is whether cutting CO2 is more expensive than the alternative (not cutting it and letting global warming happen).
Pretty much every economic cost-benefit analysis indicates that some mitigation of CO2 emissions is more cost effective than none. See my links above for details.
If you're really concerned about future climate change, you should be arguing that we should save our fossil fuels in case we need them later to influence the climate, instead of burning them all when we don't. The more uncertainty we have about future climate, the less willing we should be today to do things which perturb that climate, and the more insurance we should buy. "Not cutting CO2 emissions" is only a sensible decision if you have a lot of certainty about future climate: namely, that it's not going to get much warmer.
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:5, Informative)
I'm sure it has nothing to do with the incredibly rapid 2.5C temp increase [independent.co.uk] in the last 50 years.
Nay, my good man, all is well. Continue whistling and dance that little jig you do so well.
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:3, Informative)
"Attn: 400 scientist worldwide have come forward and denounced global warming theory. Some of them are actually listed on the IPCC's original report."
Inhofe's 400 Global Warming Deniers Debunked [thedailygreen.com]Re:Global warming my blue butt (Score:2, Informative)
A much better metric is the Lower Troposphere temperature as measured by satellite. It in fact shows no trend from 1998, and also shows a big drop globally in temperature since January 2007. See this analysis of the satellite data [wordpress.com].
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:1, Informative)
Re:For the google challenged (Score:3, Informative)
http://www.petitionproject.org/gwdatabase/GWPP/Qualifications_Of_Signers.html [petitionproject.org]
Only 40 "climatologists", but 3000+ in highly relevant fields.
Re:solar warming, that's why. (Score:4, Informative)
From MIT [mit.edu]:
Feel smarter now?