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Space Science

Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle 131

Posted by Zonk from the batten-down-the-planet dept.
An anonymous reader pointed us at a post on the Physorg blog, which discusses the possibility of an upcoming period of intense solar weather. We've discussed this before, but increasingly the evidence looks like 'Solar Cycle 24' (due to start in 2010 or so) is going to make life interesting here on earth. From the post: "Hathaway explains: 'When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm.' In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect. Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. 'The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future,' says Hathaway."
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Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle More

Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

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  • Solar Cycle 24 (Score:4, Funny)

    by The Living Fractal ( 162153 ) <banantarr@hot m a i l.com> on Saturday December 23, 2006 @07:26PM (#17350302) Homepage
    Hmm, is that the cycle where we see one day of the Sun's life, and during that day the sun gets shot multiple times, saves the president, arrests the president later, gets beaten mercilessly, heals completely, and saves the girl, all in one day.. Or am I confusing this with something else...?

    TLF

    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      by _Sharp'r_ ( 649297 )
      You're confusing it with the cycle where the sun changes weather patterns on earth and some people pretending to be scientists blame it all on you and demand that you live in a cave (or just die) and give them all political power (since they know best what everyone should do) in order to make up for your evil deeds, such as creating prosperity for everyone.

      But don't worry, I'm sure some idiot somewhere will cite these effects as "proof" that corporations control the world's climate. After all, all solar cha

      • Re:Solar Cycle 24 (Score:5, Funny)

        by The Living Fractal ( 162153 ) <banantarr@hot m a i l.com> on Saturday December 23, 2006 @07:55PM (#17350438) Homepage
        So what you're telling me is to buy stock in a corporation, and probably one that produces sun tan lotion?

        TLF

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Dunbal ( 464142 )
          buy stock in a corporation, and probably one that produces sun tan lotion?

                And/or become a dermatologist or oncologist ;)

        • Re: (Score:1)

          by Joebert ( 946227 )
          Or hemroid cream.
          Bound to be alot of people that get this stuff confused.
          Your call.
        • Be careful about PhysOrg.com: The web site carries "press releases" [physorg.com], which are advertisements disguised as articles. (In the linked article, brand-name battery makers don't want people to buy the much less expensive but otherwise identical generic batteries, apparently. Also, battery makers want people to think it is normal to spend a lot of money on batteries.)

        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          by cbacba ( 944071 )
          Wrongo

          Solar cycle 24 is starting now, it will peak a little around 2010 or 2012.

          It's more likely time to sell stock in suntan oil companies. The ozone hole is likely to decrease substantially (somewhat depending on mt aribus' outgassing activities). It's possible the hole might decrease to the lowest amount it's been measured at due to the expectations of this cycle's strength. Unfortunately, it very possible that the envirowhackos will have a field day on global warming as this cycle strengthens due to

      • Re: (Score:1, Funny)

        by carney1979 ( 189847 ) *
        I just hope my ham radio hobby get's interesting again......

        David
        • I agree. It sure is fun to talk to Russia on 10m running 25W ssb mobile. I did just that routinely during the solar max in '89 and '90. I'm hoping for some sweet 6m propagation this cycle, too.

          I'm k4det, btw. 73!

      • Oh course you miserable bastard. Were all going to die because of you. Now go live in that cave (Which will hopefully flood when the ice caps melt).
        • OT: The point of posting as AC is that it allows you to say what you think/feel without a penalty. Saying something bad about apple will get you a smackdown which casts you into the depths of -1 ness for some time. The same goes for most other anti-group think posts. I've had to climb out of the -1 abyss a few times, and it's not exactly fun. While you don't get as much recognition for a 0 mod, it's still better than posting at -1.
    • You're close. Scientists have determined that a solar flare occurs every time Jack Bauer scratches his ass.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by can56 ( 698639 )
      In my former life, I worked in research (magnetotellurics) regarding natural EM fields, which employs two sources: lightning (high frequency - 1 Hz and up), and solar effects (very low frequency - 1 Hz and way down). One thing I never figured out is why the solar cycle is ~11 years. Anyone care to hit me with a clue bat?

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Namlak ( 850746 )
      Hmm, is that the cycle where we see one day of the Sun's life, and during that day the sun gets shot multiple times, saves the president, arrests the president later, gets beaten mercilessly, heals completely, and saves the girl, all in one day.. Or am I confusing this with something else...?

      No, this solar cycle is the one with three wheels.

    • Re: (Score:1, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Solar Cycle 24 actually starts at solar minimum, which is right about now. The cycle, which is about 11 years long, will peak in about 5 or so years from now, when there will be the most activity on the sun. Although, major flares and CME's can happen anytime, as witnessed by the large flare earlier this month during solar minimum.

      Another interesting factoid is that the magnetic field of the sun flips its polarity every eleven years around solar maximum, where the north pole of the sun becomes the south p

  • H-alpha filters (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Average_Joe_Sixpack ( 534373 ) on Saturday December 23, 2006 @07:37PM (#17350350)
    I know many in the amateur astronomy community are gearing up for this cycle, and are saving their pennies for H-alpha filters [thousandoaksoptical.com] & telescopes. [coronadofilters.com]

  • Wondering... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Darundal ( 891860 ) on Saturday December 23, 2006 @07:41PM (#17350356) Journal
    ...if anyone more knowledgable about the subject for me could tell me;

    A: What areas of the Earth are likely to be most and least affected
    B: How bad are the effects supposed to be
    C: What are some examples (links to articles or research) of previous effects that may be widely known (other than the Aurora)

    Thanks

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by jonfr ( 888673 )
      Check out NOAA webpage about this. The most affect areas are going to be the sunlid areas of the planet. But see more here, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html [noaa.gov]

      • Re:Wondering... (Score:4, Funny)

        by Dunbal ( 464142 ) on Saturday December 23, 2006 @09:54PM (#17350924)
        The most affect areas are going to be the sunlit areas of the planet.

              Well DUH! Thank you, Captain Obvious!

      • I can't believe no one has mentioned this, but that correlates neatly with the end of the Mayan long count calendar [wikipedia.org], signalling the end of the fifth age and mankind (according to some sources, also a new beginning of some sort), and the start of the sixth. Heres an excerpt from the article:

        The end of the 13th b'ak'tun is conjectured to have been of great significance to the Maya, but does not necessarily mark the end of the world according to their beliefs, but a new beginning or time of re-birth. Acco

    • Re:Wondering... (Score:4, Informative)

      by Darlantan ( 130471 ) on Saturday December 23, 2006 @08:00PM (#17350454)
      Well, the poles tend to see a lot of magnetic activity, for obvious reasons. Given this, I'd say that if you want the least effects, the equatorial regions are where to be.

      Having said that, I'd like to point out that (due to the scale of these things) they're global events. If a big flare heads our way, it could cause global disruptions. A big flare could effectively disrupt global radio communications, as well as wipe out multiple sattelites. Power grid hits are also a possibility.

      If you are thinking about heading for greener pastures to avoid this thing, my advice to you is not to bother. If you're REALLY worried, get some power filtering equipment/UPSes and a backup generator.

      If you aren't worried...well, I have it on good authority that (if the weather is right) being out on the water during these events can be very spectacular. I had a relative who was out on one of the great lakes during calm weather, and according to him the aurora was spectacular. The smooth water reflected the lights overhead. Personally, I plan on heading north to see the show.
    • You would be safest in a deep cave, but when all else fails, your Mom's basement will do too... ;)

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Snorpus ( 566772 )
      Just in time for all those thousands of new hams who were waiting for the Morse requirement to be dropped. Things should be hopping on 6 and 2 meters. Better start digging the foundation for that 100 ft tower tomorrow.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Dunbal ( 464142 )
      What are some examples (links to articles or research) of previous effects that may be widely known (other than the Aurora)

      This one makes you think a bit

      http://www.centerfirstamericans.com/mt.php?a=36&h= firestone [centerfirstamericans.com]

      Specifically:
      "The enormous energy released by the catastrophe at 12,500 yr B.P. could have heated the atmosphere to over 1000C over Michigan, and the neutron flux at more northern locations would have melted considerable glacial ice. Radiation effects on plants and animals exposed to the cosmi

  • Inconstant Moon type interesting (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Nom du Keyboard ( 633989 ) on Saturday December 23, 2006 @08:23PM (#17350558)
    How interesting? Inconstant Moon type interesting? I heard we were going to have a big Atlantic Ocean hurricane season as well. I'm still waiting.

    My point is, such forecasts of such still poorly understood phenomena still seem to go wrong much more often than they go right. And then when someone does happen to hit it right all I seem to hear is, "See, we knew all along. Now listen to us always!"

    • We call it 'astrology'. (Score:1, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      But seriously, there's a guy in New Zealand who publishes weather predictions based upon lunar cycles. He has a loyal following, even though 99% of the time he's wrong. On the rare occasion he gets it right (either by chance, or by making the same predictions as genuine meteorologists) his flock proclaim his method to be completely reliable and accurate. Strangely enough, when he's wrong, they either remain silent, or claim he was right by applying highly selective interpretations of his predictions and the

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Dunbal ( 464142 )
        He has a loyal following, even though 99% of the time he's wrong.

        Typical of most religions.

        Yet far more people trust astrologers than scientists.

        That doesn't mean they're right. But the swindlers who are after a buck know that if you dazzle people enough, they will gladly part with their money. Everyone loves a show. Science, on the other hand, doesn't give a damn what people THINK. Which is why there's not much of a "following", except from rational people. Back

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Jerf ( 17166 )
      It's even worse than that. For any given prediction, there's probably somebody making it. For instance, this guy [commondreams.org] predicts that global warming will cause an ice age. I'm not saying that's right or wrong; my point is that combined with the traditional predictions about what global warming will do, the end result is that the entire gamut is covered; no matter what, somebody gets to be right.

      The problem is that in our wonderfully complex world, being right about an event doesn't particularly imply that you are
    • There's a big difference between the data sets used to calculate the patterns seen in the solar cycle compared to the data sets used to calculated the hurricane trends or global temperatures. The sun's activity follows a rather predictable 11-year cycle. If you read the article and look at the graph of the Solar Cycles vs. Geomagnetic Activity, you'll see that the correlation is hard to deny. From the article: "Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the

    • I heard we were going to have a big Atlantic Ocean hurricane season as well. I'm still waiting.

      Ireland spent about six weeks recently under the worst weather conditions seen in decades, high winds, incessant rain, flooding, the works. I'd call that a hurricane, and I know I've never seen anything like it in my life.

  • So does this mean we can predict solar flares and use them to travel to the past or the future?
    • So does this mean we can predict solar flares and use them to travel to the past or the future?

      And risk being flung into a distant galaxy inhabited by cranky muppets? No frelling way!
  • ...like the Sun has PMS.
  • This year was supposed to have several MAJOR hurricanes, worse than ever before, because of "Global Warming".
    IIRC, 11 were predicted. Zero appeared.

    I suspect this Solar catastrophe prediction will be just as accurate.
    • I hope it's accurate because we rarely ever get to see aurora from southern New England. I've seen it only once. :(

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by jd ( 1658 )
      IIRC, none landed. Very different thing. Plenty of hurricanes out to sea, this year, though the late El Nino screwed up the original forecast. The oceans are warming quite nicely - twice the originally forecast rate, I believe, with truly massive die-offs in the zooplankton globally and an extremely stable and rapidly-growing dead zone off the Oregon coast. Forecasts for global climate change have been revised sharply now-wards, as a result of more recent studies on ocean currents and ocean temperatures.

      As

    • Apparently you havn't been paying attention to the Philippines. Remember, this is GLOBAL warming, not Americas warming.
  • It is all explained here [nasa.gov].

    Their forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms. Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect. Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 yea

  • Spaceweather.com has linked to a number of predictions over the last year or so regarding the next solar cycle. What is left out is that no evidence has ever been given showing showing that any method has proven to be accurate in the past. I challenge anyone to find such data.
  • Looks like 10 meters will be open for DX in a few years. Maybe even
    some 'crossing the pond' on 6 meters too!
    • As an amateur radio operator I welcome our DX Overlords. Actually I plan to be one - DXCC - WAZ - 5BWAS on QRP. HI HI.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Ramadog ( 535075 )
      Why not check out 10m now for the sporadic E? There has been plently of E layer propation around Australia. I have been watching http://propnet.org/ [propnet.org] which shows there has been some good E layer propagation around North America as well.

      10 is not as dead as a lot of people seem to think. It also makes a great local band.

  • Cool... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by exp(pi*sqrt(163)) ( 613870 ) on Saturday December 23, 2006 @10:12PM (#17350998) Journal
    ...gotta start saving for that H-alpha telescope. Believe it or not, for about $500 you can buy a telescope that allows you to view the sun through a filter with a bandwidth of less than .1 nm. This [freeuk.com] gives you an idea of what you can see with it.

  • Ham radio and cycle 24 (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday December 23, 2006 @10:33PM (#17351048)
    The amateur radio community (Yes, we're still here) is waiting with baited traps for the "Peak of '24". Ya see, its only in the cycle peaks when amateur radio becomes too much fun. Times like now, in the valley of solar near-death, we have to fight to maintain any contact with our buddies. Remember when Cb radios would skip from Alaska to Mexico? That was a solar maximum, and a weak one at that. Imagine what you could do with a legal kilowatt of power and a well engineered antenna! I know some of the old timers who are literally praying for a few more years before they go "silent key" in order to reap the harvest of contacts that is predicted. If you wish to experience the true camaraderie of thousands of geek friends and associates, during what may be the most interesting solar cycle yet, start studying for that ham ticket. We've made it even easier than ever before. See ya down the log.
    • I've always wanted to share knock-knock jokes in Morse code. This may be the perfect opportunity.

      • Re: (Score:1, Funny)

        by Anonymous Coward

        Dah-di-dah Dah-dit Dah-dah-dah Dah-di-dah-dit Dah-di-dah, Dah-di-dah Dah-dit Dah-dah-dah Dah-di-dah-dit Dah-di-dah

        Did you know the lameness filter doesn't like morse code? There is a postercomment compression filter that blocks comments like the text above. Fortunately you can add some randome text to get around the problem.

    • whoa, dude. Tone it down a bit. That's a bit too geeky for this site ....
    • That was on the QST cover during a previous peak about 40 years ago.
  • If you're going to make a solar powered bicycle, why not just make it normal sized?

  • Bitchy, bitchy, bitch (Score:3, Funny)

    by kitzilla ( 266382 ) <paperfrogNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Saturday December 23, 2006 @11:23PM (#17351182) Homepage Journal
    Oh, great ... the sun has a big cycle on the way. No doubt it will be bitchy and irritable beforehand. Like we need that.

  • December 21st, 2012 (Score:3, Funny)

    by SilverwoodUG ( 853342 ) on Saturday December 23, 2006 @11:56PM (#17351346) Homepage
    6 to 8 years in the future?
    It doesn't land on December 21st, 2012 does it?
    End of the Maya Calendar [wikipedia.org]
    • No, its not that funny. At the calculated date, dec 21 2012, the cosmos will have the same constellation as at the end of the previous era, after the large ice age which ended 10.000 bC.
      It was the time when the Sfinx was built, before the times of the large rainfalls, 9000-8000 years ago,

      Now we don't really know what is the cause of galactic sorms, do we?

      The laughed-at Mayan calendar is in fact more accurate than ours. Why laugh? Ignorance?

      The end of the Mayan calendar is not the end of the world, it's the
  • If Bush had only gotten his environmental policies right, things like this wouldn't be happening. Surely this has to be a human-induced event like global warming, it cannot possibly be a natural phenomenon!

  • Back in 1990... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by pixelguru ( 985395 ) on Sunday December 24, 2006 @12:54AM (#17351604) Homepage
    I remember the last big solar event back in 1990 - cable TV had just become available at my parents' rural house that summer, but we enjoyed the first several months of HBO with fuzzy pink fringe and lots of static due to all the solar interference. Anything was better than our old aerial reception though, so we lived with a pink Crypt Keeper and Dream On.

    In the fall, I went back to school in western NY state (Alfred University, near the NY/PA border), and on many nights in December, we could see vivid Auroras even over the campus light polution. At the time, I didn't think it was possible for them to be visible at such a lattitude. If the next maximum ends up being as strong as predicted, we might even see them farther south.

  • Just to be picky, the comment with the summary says the solar cycle is due to start in 2010 or so. In the first paragraph of the article it says Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011.

  • December 14th (Score:3, Informative)

    by From A Far Away Land ( 930780 ) on Sunday December 24, 2006 @03:14AM (#17352162) Homepage Journal
    I enjoyed the aurora last week. They were so intense, they were bright even to the south of me. Photos at the link in my signature if you're curious. I've animated them too.
  • This new together with the fact that the magnetic field of the mother ship Gaya (Earth herself) are getting weaker and progressively reversing its magnetic poles, we will be served with all we wanted: Energy, pure and RAW! Somehow Carl Sagan shared same point of view of the Mayan culture... in the Carl Sagan Cosmos documentary series (and book), he managed to represent the Eras of the universe as a mosaic and we are on the edge of this universal Era! Mayan cultures build the same mosaic but in the form of
  • Any physicists out there want to comment on whether or not this could contribute to the global magnetic polarity switch everyone seems to think will happen soon?

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