Asteroid 2004 MN4 May Hit Earth After All 857
ControlFreal writes "Asteroid 2004 MN4 was introduced earlier on Slashdot, and although scientists are now fairly certain that is will miss earth on April 13th, 2029, the modification to its orbit caused by Earth's gravity may still cause an impact one or a couple of orbits further down the road, the Times reports; the impact probabilities in 2035, 2036 of 2037 will not be known until the exact modification to its orbit is known; in 2029, that is. By then it may be too late for effective counter-measures.
An impact would cause an energy release equivalent to about 1 Gigaton of TNT (~4e+18 Joule), and while that won't cause a massive extinction event, it causes widespread devastation.
More info on 2004 MN4 can be found here and here."
Good! (Score:2, Interesting)
From the summary:
I hope this rock hits our planet. I really do.
This may be the spur humanity needs to get us up off our collective keisters and establish a viable off-planet colony before it's too late. It would be an unprecedented catastrophe, but still survivable, and it seems like this is the only way we're going t
Let's make an Ark B (Score:2, Funny)
The only problem is, I'm not sure whether we should be on it or they.
Lets put them (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Let's make an Ark B (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Let's make an Ark B (Score:5, Funny)
Comment removed (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Our Eulogy (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Our Eulogy (Score:5, Interesting)
Denial will reign, as no preparations are done to evacuate the planet. Some will say there is no way to evacuate everyone. Others will say there's nowhere else to go. The real thinkers will know, if we had started years ago, we would have had a chance.
Most will die from the intial impact.
The impact will crack the planet's crust, resulting in volcanos, earthquakes, and tsunamis, which continue for years.
Many will die due to the dependance on transportation systems, or more specifically the failure of them.
A very few will survive in the cold dust and ash filled atmosphere, through the shaking ground, and giant destroying the costal areas. They will survive for many months on their preserved food reserves, and filtered air. Alone, they will consider themselves the lucky ones.
In the end, none will survive.
Many millennia later, other civilizations will have grown in far outlying areas of the universe. They will look at the dry and barren planet, covered by rocks and dirt, and say "nothing could have ever lived here. It's always been a dead planet"
Eventually, despite taunts, archeologists will find disputed traces of life on the planet. Some artifacts will be found. They will be found frozen in the ice of the polar ice caps, or burried in the sands of the vast deserts. Still others will be below hundreds of feet of dirt, on the iced tops of frozen oceans.
The artifacts will be carefully examined for many years. There will be many theories to what they are, and what the markings may mean. Could there have been life on this far distant planet? Could a civilization have thrived in this desolate place? Maybe these creatures could be a clue to our ancestory?
In the end, their markings will be considered random discolorations. The artifacts will be labeled as "common rocks", and thoughtfully put into storage well away from public sight.
No, as egotistical as we are, there will ne eulogy. There will be no memory of anything we've accomplished. We will be part of the dust on a barren planet, spinning slowly around a dying star.
Re:Our Eulogy (Score:4, Insightful)
Perhaps someone should read a little less Nietzsche.
Re:Our Eulogy (Score:3, Interesting)
Speculation here, but likely what ever condition we have on earth after an asteroid impact would still be better than the current conditions on the moon or on mars. If we can design a self sustaining mars colony, we can probably design a self sustaining post apocalype earth society as well.
Re:Our Eulogy (Score:5, Insightful)
I think the reason some Funny posts get modded Insightful, Informative, Whatever is because starting sometime ago Funny mods no longer improve your karma. Thus to counteract, if a post already has a few Funny mods, a moderator might mod it Informative to boost the poster's karma a bit.
Makes some sense to me. After all, Funny comments in
Re:Our Eulogy (Score:5, Interesting)
If you read the Mod FAQ [slashdot.org] about them (last bullet) you'll see that you can get some odd (but unlikely I guess) combos like +5 Flamebait (that would be cool though
Also, and I don't know this for fact but I've seen others discuss it, if you mod using Under/Overrated too much, you may eventually be given fewer/no mod points. The reason being is that Under/Overrated mods cannot be metamoderated so you get trolls with mod points using them to mod people down without valid reason (political, whatever). There's some big discussions about users getting hit by tons of Overrated mods because they have enough Foes with mod points. Basically there's no way to "balance out" Under/Overrated mods.
Anyone know more about this?
Re:Good! (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Good! (Score:5, Informative)
New propulsion technology? You mean like Nuclear Pulse [wikipedia.org], Nuclear Thermal [wikipedia.org] (also in Trimodal [nuclearspace.com] for low atmospheric work), Nuclear Salt Water [wikipedia.org], M2P2 [wikipedia.org], and hundreds of other mature, semi-mature, or proposed methods that we haven't used because it's "too damn expensive to get off this rock"?
Propulsion is *not* the problem.
Re:Good! (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Good! (Score:5, Insightful)
Besides, whenever has our beloved President ever let a treaty stand in his way? [cnn.com]
Re:Good! (Score:5, Interesting)
That's why the modern Trimodal TRITON engine *doesn't* release any materials. And once you get into space, it doesn't really matter how many nukes you blow up, as long as the debris is on an escape trajectory.
None the less, my point holds. The problem is *not* propulsion.
Re:Good! (Score:5, Funny)
I posted this to my local SF group boards a while back. Hope you like it:
Several guys in the group work for Lockheed and want it on a T-shirt.
Cheers,
I.V.
Re:Good! (Score:3, Insightful)
No, they talk about the difficulties inherent in how dangerous they are. I don't know if you've checked up on the shuttle boosters any time recently, but they are EXTREMELY dangerous. The key is mitigate the danger in as many ways as possible.
BTW, most of what you're reading is the 1960's technology. The TRITON Trimodal link is an example of a "safe" engine built in modern times. Besides that, most of these engines are
Re:Good! (Score:4, Informative)
Orion is the exception, but orion is silly for moving anything smaller than a city into space.
Re:Good! (Score:3, Insightful)
You sir, are obviously an idiot who either can't read or can't be bothered to read. We DID build nuclear thermal engines. They were done. Ready to fly on the Saturn V. They simply weren't needed as the time, because the LHOx engines matured faster. Nearly ALL Mars missions call for NTR engines, which is why the TRITON got built.
As for nuclear pulse propulsion, most of the work has actu
Re:Good! (Score:4, Interesting)
How do we know that? Who says they didn't? All of human history would barely register on the fossil record. An intelligent saurian race could well have evolved, had a catastrophic world war, etc. and we'd be none the wiser... except maybe a large extinction event...
Re:Good! (Score:4, Insightful)
In all the fossil record, we never find one screw nor washer, no bolts, not a single microchip, no industrial manufacturing complexes, etc. There you have it. Proof in the form of lack of evidence
Re:Good! (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Good! (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Good! (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Good! (Score:5, Funny)
- Larry Niven
Wouldn't it be funny if they did have a space program and just haven't bothered coming back?
Re:Good! (Score:5, Funny)
Funniest single panel cartoon I ever saw... (Score:5, Funny)
I can't remember who the artist was. Sad.
Mortal Kombat! (Score:3, Funny)
Round 1. Fight!
Crunch
Komodo Dragon wins.
Fatality
Re:Good! (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Good! (Score:4, Insightful)
Personally, I think we should focus our efforts on keeping the planet we live on viable. If some big rock later undoes the hard work, so be it.
Meanwhile we're hell-bent on destroying a perfectly viable planet with our own home-grown stupidity - at the rate we are going we'll eventually finish the job whether or not an asteroid beats us to the punch is just a matter of timing.
Re:Good! (Score:3, Insightful)
Meanwhile we're hell-bent on destroying a perfectly viable planet with our own home-grown stupidity - at the rate we are going we'll eventually finish the job whether or not an asteroid beats us to the punch is just a matter of timing.
We can fix this place up, but what's gonna happen when the one comes that we divert?
What happens with global warming is killing us?
What happens when we get into a nuclear war?
What happens when
Re:Good! (Score:3, Funny)
Re: Off-Planet Colony (Score:3, Interesting)
Good opportunity (Score:3, Interesting)
Would be a good chance to put a digger on an asteroid, maybe even park a HST-like observatory on it...
...almost as good as a lunar base...
I really hope not (Score:4, Insightful)
If the sole reason you want a space program is paranoid fear that we might be hit by a rock, that's a pretty sad reason.
I'd like to visit the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. I'd like to see other star systems. I'd like to advance our knowledge of the galaxy and universe and try to find other life forms.
I mean, if people were dying left and right by micrometeorites hitting the earth and blowing out people's skulls but no one in power cared, I'd be concerned. That's not the case here.
Let's keep the fearmongering to a dull roar here. How sick does our society have to be when someone start's talking like a bad sci-fi thriller about the end of the world?
The sole purpose of any space program should be like any other science program, to make the unknown known and to expand the horizons of human understanding.
Frankly, if the meteor is coming in 2035, my opinion is that it's pretty much too late now. Get out your sandbags and automatic rifles and prepare for the armageddon (not the movie!).
Re:I really hope not (Score:3, Insightful)
Joe sixpack doesn't care about science, or exploration unless it directly affects him. The only reason a lot of the "space race" happened is because people were afraid of the commies. Now that there isn't such a fear, things like NASA get their budget slas
Re:I really hope not (Score:4, Interesting)
There are too many scary parallels between the Iraq war, Vietnam, pornography and this solution to fix our lagging space program.
Re:Good! (Score:5, Interesting)
I strongly doubt that. Such a catastrophe will push many governments and citizen groups over the edge of accepting Fascism as a survival tactic. Within such regimes, the ability to look outward to the liberties of space is very repressed. In effect, there will always be a constant reward for killing people and taking their stuff
2004MN4 would merely whack Humanity back to the social depravities of the Middle Ages. It will take many hundreds of years before cultures rediscover the wonderful benefits of letting your neighbor live long enough to invest in -- and profit from -- your enterprises.
Re:Good! (Score:5, Funny)
Notorious to whom? Short compared to attention spans of what other species? Compared with animals? Do dogs and cats sit around behind our backs and say shit like this:
Dog: mankind has such a short attention span
Cat: tell me about it. me and my feline brethren have been working on catching mice for thousands of years. Some of our members have been known to study a mote of dust for upwards of 4 hours
Dog: I hear you - it's almost as if mankind is famous for having a short attentions spam. Infamous you might say. Heck, I'd go so far as to say they are notoriously short attentioned - wait, where's my tail? Did you seem my tail?
Or maybe you're communicating with aliens.
Date of impact (Score:4, Funny)
I wonder if Jason http://www.fridaythe13thfilms.com/ [fridaythe13thfilms.com] will show up.
Re:Date of impact (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Date of impact (Score:3, Funny)
Orion Project (Score:5, Interesting)
Bull. 2029 to 2035 gives us ~6 years to prepare. If the asteroid actually posed clear and present danger, then a crash program to build an interceptor could be accomplished. With apologies to Pournelle and Niven [amazon.com] (warning, associates link), the catch-22 is that we would have to give up our fear of the Orion [wikipedia.org]. Using standard building practices + what we know of advanced hydrogen bomb design, we could potentially launch an Orion within three years. The options would be to either send it on an unmanned kinetic-impact course with the asteroid, or to send a team ala "Armageddon" (or some other lame stop-the-asteroid movie) to manually plant and detonate the charges.
If I'm reading the info correctly, the asteroid is a mere 46 gigatonnes. So as long as we get to it fast enough, there shouldn't be any difficulty in nudging it into a higher orbit. Of course, we may only be able to buy some time in the short term. Orbital mechanics is tricky, and not as simple as just "pushing" the asteroid out of the way. We may actually have to push it toward earth to slingshot it into a more acceptable trajectory.
One way or another, we have the tech. It's just scary as all hell to behold, and in a crash program would almost certainly add a small amount to the nuclear pollution that already exists on our planet. But if it's a choice between three random deaths from cancer or millions dead from a massive impact, I think the choice is fairly clear. Especially when the former is theoretical and the later is firm.
Re:Orion Project (Score:5, Insightful)
You've never had any experience trying to get the government to actually do anything concrete, have you?
Re:Orion Project (Score:3, Insightful)
You want an example of the technological progress a government can make in 6 years? Compare a tank from 1939 with one from 1945 (or for a more extreme example, compare an atomic bomb from 1939 with one from 1945). The military technology used by the combatants in WW2 improved massivly over the 6 years of the war and this is while several of the countries were having the crap bombed out of them. When
Re:Orion Project (Score:5, Insightful)
The US did Mercury and Appollo in timeframes that short. And global catastrophe wasn't a motivator then.
Re:Orion Project (Score:5, Insightful)
Motivate the human race enough and its ridiculous what we can accomplish. We're 3 generations removed from 'total war' economy. An extinction level event would be sufficient motivation for us to see such economic focus once again.
Re:Orion Project (Score:5, Funny)
We all could be gone by then.
For all we know, the United States of Arabia, formed in 2013, will be the world's lone superpower, we will be driving around in our fuel efficient hydorgen-powered Sayyarrah Ansar 4-doors, created by the Sayyarrah Motor Co in response to rising fuel costs after the world's industrial nations burned through most of the cheaply-accessible Arabian oil, leaving the United States sitting on top of the largest intact oil reserves in the world, which it stubbornly refuses to share. The USA (the Arabian states, I mean) will work with the Brazilians space program and the Federal Chinese States (formed after the Chinese Civil War in 2018) to launch an "asteroid-killer" probe at this thing from the secondary pad at Artemis International Station [asi.org] in the north polar region of the moon.
Or it'll just, like, Africa, or Canada, or some other place nobody cares about, and we'll just live with it. Or the environmentalists will protest that it likely contains spaceborne elementary life forms and that it's an immoral sin of human arrogance to attempt to save our species by eliminating theirs.
Print this post out now and re-read it in 20 years, it'll be fun!
Re:Orion Project (Score:5, Insightful)
Because most of the groundwork has been done to death. There are engineers out there who could build an Orion in their sleep, partly because it's so damn simple.
The other issue is that there simply isn't enough time to build some other super-booster. Both the Saturn V and the Energia are out of commission due to a lack of production facilities. In the case of the Orion, you'd be building something far simpler and more along the lines of a traditional building or ship hull.
But you have 20 years
You'd have 6 years, because scientists will be uncertain until 2029.
kinetic kill weapons are not that a good idea, little thing called the "law of conservation of momentum" you're not going to move a 64 gigatonne something much by hitting it with the sort of mass you can afford to lift off of earth
Well, on the small side we could build an Orion of about 3000 metric tonnes. On the large side, we could build one of about 8,000,000 metric tonnes. Maybe it's just me, but I think 8 million tons + a significant amount of relative velocity could make a difference.
I agree with you though, it's something of wishful thinking to hit it with a kinetic kill. The most likely scenario would be to take up station near the asteroid and go through several iterations of planting and detonating hydrogen bombs. The idea won't be to break it up, but rather to provide propulsion. As such, the bombs would be detonated on or near the surface of the asteroid.
What you do need to do is shift it's orbit, you don't need a lot of mass or a big motor, just time - get started now, drop and iron drive and solar cells on the thing now and fire it up, maybe deliver some more mass in 5 years, carefully watch where it's going and eventually drop it into the sun or Jupiter
The only problem is that we don't have engines that can make a dent in 46 gigatons of mass. As you pointed out yourself, the law of conservation of momentum is going to have a lot to say about a constant 1/1000 lb of thrust against that much mass.
Re:Orion Project (Score:3, Insightful)
yikes! (Score:2, Funny)
Bummer (Score:2, Funny)
*cue music* (Score:5, Funny)
oohh shit... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:oohh shit... (Score:3, Funny)
2037... (Score:5, Funny)
I guess I should go ahead and blow my money on a car or something instead since how big my 401k is isn't gonna matter when the monkeys take over the Earth.
Other effects (Score:5, Interesting)
I wonder how close it would have to come to have an effect like that, and what those probabilities would be like?
As it is, I'm not losing sleep over a %0.042 chance that this puppy will shorten my retirement.
Re:Other effects (Score:5, Funny)
As a geek, you ought to be ashamed that you even suggested that a tiny little rock would take out dozens of satellites. I can see how an English major or a Journalist could make that mistake, but you are on SLASHDOT here, and you should know some basic things about the space and how big it is.
Re:Other effects (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Other effects (Score:4, Informative)
I'm not sure what standard spacing is out there, but I'm sure it's at least a few hundred km. The chance of a 1 km object hitting one of these widely spaced, small objects is not great.
As for perturbation, I'm sure it's negligible. Even if it wasn't, the satellites should have sufficient station keeping ability to stay put.
Re:Other effects (Score:4, Informative)
That's a lot of space. Geosynch orbit is 22,000 miles. Tack on 4,000 miles for the earth's radius, and it's a shell of space with a surface area of 8.5 billion square miles. Let's pretend we've got 50,000 satellites in that area by 2030. That means 1 sallite per 170,000 square miles. That suggests one satellite occupying a square of space 500 miles x 500 miles, and this thing is under a half mile across, probably less than a quarter-mile. The chances of it impacting anything in that orbit is incredibly tiny.
Caveat: my math may be off, but the point stands. This object occupies a TINY region of space, and satellits occupy an even TINIER region of space. There's no cloud of buzzing satellites around the planet, they're sparsely populating a huge shell around the planet.
Bush planning astronomy cuts (Score:3, Informative)
2035 (Score:5, Funny)
I know what to do, are you with me? (Score:5, Funny)
So let's start collecting lead! Who's with me?
Them's fightin words! (Score:3, Funny)
Ha! (Score:2, Funny)
so we can forget about the 32bit Unixtime thing?:) (Score:5, Funny)
19th January 2038 half of us will be dead! Who needs to count the seconds after
that?
Re:so we can forget about the 32bit Unixtime thing (Score:3, Funny)
Not enough time for counter-measures (Score:5, Insightful)
I can't even imagine what things will be like in another 30 years...I mean, if in 1915 you told someone that in 30 years a bomb would be built powerful enough to flatten a small city, they'd laugh at you.
Re:Not enough time for counter-measures (Score:5, Insightful)
Check out the timeline for the us space program, and you plot the trend.
5 may, 1961 - Freedom 7, first manned sub-orbital flight
20 feb, 1962 - Friendship 7, first manned orbital flight
21 Dec, 1968 - launch Apollo 8, first manned lunar orbit
21 July, 1969 - First manned lunar landing
12 April, 1981 - First launch of space shuttle
1 feb, 2003 - shuttle fleet grounded
There isn't much advancement in this curve, and there is a whole lot of retreat. A once proud program, that had the capability to put a man on the moon, just last week, outsourced to get one of thier folks into low orbit. That is a rather telling 'detail' as to just how much advancement is really happening.
Technology may be advancing, but I wouldn't be counting on anything the usa is developing to be useful in dealing with an asteroid collision scenario. The current administration has priorities higher than space travel, and, the debts they are running up to achieve those goals, will prevent future generations from persueing any meaningful space program during the timeframe in question.
Practice makes perfect (Score:4, Insightful)
From TFA:
"This is most likely not the object with our number on it, but one day we will have to address this question and we'll need the technology."
So let's develop the technology now, when a screw up won't mean utter devastation of part of the planet.
Not a huge amount of energy. (Score:5, Interesting)
Actual energy yields: (Score:5, Informative)
vs
32 gigaton for Indian Ocean quake/tsunami, 2004 [wikipedia.org]
Re:Actual energy yields: (Score:5, Informative)
The energy of the MN4 impact would be delivered into the athmosphere, a VASTLY less stable enviroment than the earth mantle.
Not to mention dust|chemical alteration problems...
Lets solve this problem the American Way! (Score:5, Funny)
Bunkers? (Score:5, Interesting)
I wonder if people will build more bunkers. I know a person who owns a house, and there is a bunker in the back yard, from the days of a USSR nuclear strike threat (Back in the 70's and early 80's the drill for a nuclear strike was to climb under the desk in the school). It looks kinda flimsy to me, I am guessing the salesperson was real good. It looks more like a shed that is half way in the ground.
But, if someone wanted to make a good bunker, not just to ease the mind, but something to survive in, how deep would it need to be? I live on flat land, so I can not tunnle into a mountain, which I would assume to be the best choice. What is needed for a good oxygen supply, can you generate your own, or do you need an exhaust? How long would you need to stay underground, and where would you store the water and food? And would you have more than one exit out of the bunker, in case one side suffers damage and is burried under?
I think it would be cool to have a series of bunkers, with some pre-picked neighbors, people you trust. Have 7 or 8 bunkers, maybe a mile apart, each one acting as a node. The chances for survival would increase, and the time would pass quicker.
Re:Bunkers? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Bunkers? (Score:4, Funny)
Then, when all my friends and relatives in my section of the hemisphere are dead, I'll enjoy struggling for my own survival without clean, readily available running water and food. And then when I get sick after running low on my own hefty (let's be generous and say it's a 12 week supply) of water, I'll be proud of how I struggle to survive with complications from even the most minor of ailments after my modern drug supply is exhausted or proves ineffective.
When I use my most awsome shortwave radio, I'll be pleased to see how my important politicains (those who lived, that is) are the ones who are rescued first, and will shrug my shoulders as I look at the wreckage of my antennea array from the blast, hoping my small antennea doesnt eat up my power supply before someone can here me.
I'll be happy to have fully productive days, too, fending off what might be left of others who managed to survive but were less planful as I, as I count my ammunation running lower every day. I'll be thankful my hungry neighbor (the one living in a bunker right next to me) doesn't have a bigger gun than me, either.
I for one agree that life after a massive asteroid blast would be well on the high odds of survival and most likely fully worth living. After all: With God, all things are possible 8-D.
Re:Bunkers? (Score:3, Informative)
Comment removed (Score:3, Insightful)
NASA's impact risk summary (Score:4, Informative)
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ [nasa.gov]
Note that this one is in the top three, but with due respect to Douglas Adams, "Don't Panic" appears to be in order.
Simpsons obligatory quote.. (Score:3, Funny)
Reverend Lovejoy: Run for your lives people We don't have a prayer!
Stop f*cking with my homeowner's insurance! (Score:4, Funny)
I just went through paperwork HELL getting the "Asteroids, Meteorites, and Other Heaven-to-Earth Bodies" coverage removed from my AllState homeowners insurance. This after I put it on there when you FIRST told us it was going to hit us!
Then I had to call Jean, my agent, and f*cking tell her to shred that whole contract and contact my mortage lender when you f*cking scientists said, "Whoa -- wait -- it might NOT hit after all. Our bad." But, of course, the fax machine at my office was on the fritz that week (screw all-in-one concepts, HP!), so I had to take a 2 hour ride through traffic BACK to my house to get the paperwork and OVER TO Jean's office.
Now, after FINALLY getting the signature pages right, 'cause Jean's assistant can't friggin' spell "interplanetary" for sh*t, I gotta do the whole g'damn thing again.
Christ -- I'm going to just leave it on there this time and pay the extra 20% on my homeowners insurance premiums this year. It's not friggin' worth going through all that hassle, having to take time off, explaining to my boss what why I'm having to factor "global extinction" into my homeowner savings plan, etc. Dammit.
I guess, now, that those f*ckers from Homeland Security are going to change the f*cking color of the alert this week too. Then I'll have to go back and talk with Jean about that "Dirty Bombs, Biological/Chemical Agents, and Other WMDs" clause. Dammit.
IronChefMorimoto
What about ineffective preparations? (Score:5, Funny)
I, for one, want a massive Wile E. Coyote-style flag to pop out of the Earth immediately before the asteroid hits. Preferably reading "Yipe!"
I Bet a case of BEER... (Score:3, Interesting)
Now NASA gets a blank check to research and develop anything it wants.
Kinda like someone fending off "killer minnows" in a bucket of water using a shotgun and a paint mixer.
I bet a case of Beer that the US government will make an announcement to develop a space vehicle that has the ability to blast something. Not really thinking that all you need to do is give the big rock a shove, so that it never comes near the earth.
Impact or not,prepare as if it was coming your way (Score:4, Insightful)
What about 2046? Distance r(earth)=0.05 (Score:3, Informative)
Bush's space program will save all of us. (Score:3, Funny)
But what the U.S. government is already doing may be the very same safety measure that is needed: The renewed interest in a moon base, missions to Mars, etc. This exact same space program, I believe, is being put into effect to install a gigantic weapons system in orbit, very similar to the Death Star in Star Wars. This type of weapons system will be sufficient to blow up this silly little asteroid.
There are about twenty years left to prepare. NASA, you can rest assured, will come up with all kinds of devices to blow this thing out of the sky. And I'd bet you that the government, with all its supercomputers and whatnot, knows exactly when and where this thing is going to strike, and they're not just sitting around waiting for it to happen.
In the meantime, I know I'll be stocking up on canned foods and bottled water, and I need to buy more ammo for my handguns. If this thing starts coming down in my back yard, I'll shoot at it myself. Or I'll shoot at any looters that come around looking for trouble.
* I spelled "nucular" correctly. It's spelled according to the pronunciation of the guy I elected.
Nah... No worries... (Score:3, Funny)
Actual Effects depend on where it lands (Score:3, Interesting)
If it hit in the middle of the ocean, a Tsunami could conceivably wipe out many of the major cities on the Pacific Rim or Atlantic and European seacoasts. Tens of millions could die, and many of the developed world's major cities would be laid waste. Whole countries would be crippled, and the ensuing chaos would disrupt world trade, and potentially destabilize entire regions.
A direct hit on a major population center, such as Southern California, the area around Bejing, China, or Bombay, India would cause millions of casualties and huge suffering, but the effects would be local enough that the rest of civilization would find a way to get by, even if important industries were wiped out. Such a hit would be a relative longshot, but could happen.
Earth Impact Effects Calculator Link (Score:4, Informative)
No need to fix that 2038 bug (Score:3, Funny)
It looks like we won't have to put in overtime on that 2038 Bug [2038bug.com] w00t!
Re:Asteroids 2k4 (Score:3, Funny)
That game was actually written by NASA, in order to train the nation's children for just such an eventuality.
Re:Curious about gravitational pull claim (Score:3, Funny)
Let Them Eat Quiche!
Re:Curious about gravitational pull claim (Score:3, Insightful)
I have no idea....I'm no physicist, but it seems that if they know the object's mass and the object's size, they can figure the object's density, and infer its composition from that. What more do they really have to know?
(Mabye he's afraid it's composed of antimatter or admantium or neutronium or naquada, or has a quantum black hole at its center, or some other bullshit concern...)
Re:Curious about gravitational pull claim (Score:3, Insightful)
Most likely the strength of the material. This determines how much energy is dissipated by tidal forces during the close Earth flyby of 2029. That in turn affects the orbital parameters and hence the possibility of a later impact. The strength of the material (is it solid rock, or a big g
Re:Run for the Border! (Score:5, Funny)
All done? Ok, now take a big freaking cinder block, stand on your toilet and drop it on the little plastic guys. Ok now that's a bit of a bloodbath, sure. Set 'em up again and then lob the cinder block into the bath tub. See what the problem could be here?
So if the asteroid hits the ocean, not only will lots of people be killed, but you'll also get in trouble with your wife/parents/room mate for making a huge mess. Go figure.
Not so (Score:4, Informative)
While you're right that Hubble wouldn't be too useful for tracking this asteroid, Hubble is perfectly good for looking at things [nasa.gov] in our [racine.ra.it] solar [vias.org] system [hubblesite.org].