2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again 697
bfwebster writes "The latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed."
Space Soap Opera (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Funny)
That's great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane - Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn - world serves its own needs, don't misserve your own needs. Feed it up a knock, speed, grunt no, strength no. Ladder structure clatter with fear of height, down height. Wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for
Mainstream coverage (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Mainstream coverage (Score:5, Funny)
Asteroid insurance anyone?
Hello, 23,000 killed in tidal waves? (Score:4, Insightful)
Also, we should expect the probability of impact to continue to increase until it either goes to zero (most likely) or 1. This asteroid has a sigma of 0 - that means the MOST LIKELY path is impact. More observations are most likely going to eliminate the outlying paths first, so as we eliminate more and more of the outlying paths of possibility the most likely path will be more and more likely.
Until we get the observation that says "Ah, yeah, definitely going to miss", and then it'll be zero again.
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:5, Insightful)
Last time I took part in a discussion about asteroid impacts, it was suggested that people who are rich enough would be able to simply buy their way off the planet before the disaster strikes. As in buy with money.
Think about it. There's a gigantic rock hurtling toward Earth. There are only enough spaceships (let's say) to take 1,000 people off the surface. All life as we know it on Earth is about to be destroyed. Do you: A) Get on your spaceship and get the hell out of there, or B) Accept pieces of paper with dead presidents printed on them in return for allowing other people to get off the planet?
Even if you survived the ensuing destruction, what good would those little pieces of paper be?
The rich sometimes seem to think they can buy their way out of any problem, but the total destruction of Earth isn't something that money will save you from.
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Interesting)
Almost certainly, it would depend on whether the governments that printed the little pieces of paper surviv
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Informative)
New Reality TV Series. (Score:3, Funny)
You compete with 20 others to get a spot in the emergency bunkers.
No holds barred.
Re:Space Soap Opera (Score:3, Funny)
I can't remember the rest (it's been a while since i last read The Lesser Known Signs of the Apocalypse), but i think number three was A Rain of Poorly Designed Kittens.
The odds are now at 100% (Score:5, Funny)
Or, if you prefer, they are now at 1 in 1,000,000 [nasa.gov].
This edition of Fun With URLs has been brought to you courtesy of an overly trusting NASA webmaster.
Re:The odds are now at 100% (Score:4, Funny)
Doomed...? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Doomed...? (Score:5, Funny)
2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Keep Inch Up Again (Score:3, Funny)
Impact energy (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Impact energy (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Impact energy (Score:5, Insightful)
Keep in mind 90% of the population lives within 100 miles of the coast.
Devestating indeed.
Re:Impact energy (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Impact energy (Score:5, Interesting)
(IANAGOP -- I Am Not A Geologist Or Physicist. But I am using what I think to be logical deductions based on what little I know.)
Re:Impact energy (Score:4, Interesting)
I assume an asteroid might cause waves with shorter wavelengths even in deep water, but OTOH there'd be not such a "lense effect".
In the end, the product of amplitude, wavelength and the square of the speed of the wavefront determines the energy, so waves being taller in deep water does not mean they'll be more destructive when hitting the shore - i.e. the earthquake causes the whole of the sea to "move", while an asteroid might mainly impact the surface.
Since at around 800 km/h, wind resistance is a real factor, higher waves might even be considerably dampened on their way through the sea.
Re:Impact energy (Score:3, Insightful)
> and put a lot of dirt into the air, unless it
> happened to land in a populated area.
In which case it would put a lot of dirt and buildings in the air. We will know _exactly_ where it is going to hit years in advance: plenty of time to evacuate.
The worst case is also the most likely: in the Pacific. Even with years of warning evacuating as many a several hundred million people would be challenging and severely disruptive.
Re:Impact energy (Score:3, Funny)
April 13, 2029 (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:April 13, 2029 (Score:5, Funny)
That's right, Hot Fudge Sundae arrives on a Friday...
Re:April 13, 2029 (Score:5, Informative)
John.
Re:April 13, 2029 (Score:2)
# cal 2029
yes, that is Friday the 13th.
Re:April 13, 2029 (Score:3, Funny)
Friday the 13th (Score:3, Funny)
(Uh, 1 in 7, better than the odds of it hitting Earth.)
Re:Friday the 13th (Score:3, Informative)
BTM
Re:Friday the 13th (Score:3, Informative)
user @ amd64 (/user) cal 4 2029
April 2029
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30
Re:April 13, 2029 (Score:3, Funny)
$ cal 2029
[...]
April
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30
[...]
So yeah, we're all going to die on Friday the 13th (of April), 2029
All praise superstition
Re:April 13, 2029 (Score:3, Informative)
What? (Score:2, Funny)
We've killed Neo! Now we're doomed for sure!
By how things are going... (Score:5, Funny)
24 more years to try and get laid.
Re:By how things are going... (Score:5, Funny)
Anarchy! (Score:5, Funny)
Friday the 13th, part xxxxx (Score:3, Interesting)
Sure enough, April 13, 2029 is a Friday.
Maybe that old superstition was a premonition instead...
Re:Friday the 13th, part xxxxx (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Friday the 13th, part xxxxx (Score:5, Funny)
Point being, well actually I have no point.
Okay... Mars Colony? (Score:2)
1) Get off our island earth and spread. Mars?
2) Create powerful space based energy weapons to destroy this big rock.
Now, a few other things that would be nice:
* Star Ships that travel faster then the speed of light!
* All sorts of neat technologies.
Assuming everyone dies... (Score:4, Funny)
this is more likely to kill you than ANY OTHER death due to injury in your lifetime!
Odds of Death Due to Injury, National Safety Council [nsc.org]
Tinfoil hat (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Tinfoil hat (Score:3, Funny)
True. For this you need copper foil.
When to Worry (Score:5, Funny)
How long till we know? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:How long till we know? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:How long till we know? (Score:4, Interesting)
The key here is that they're not necessarily looking for angular position--which, you're right, they can get much more accurately using a respectable backyard optical telescope. What Aricebo gives is better information on range and radial velocity (from the time for a radar pulse to return, and its Doppler shift, respectively). This information combined with the optical measurements we already have will give us a much better measure of its course than either technique alone.
1 miss is good (Score:3, Informative)
Strange questions.... (Score:5, Interesting)
What impact will the earth have if the object hits the moon?
Re:Strange questions.... (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Strange questions.... (Score:4, Insightful)
HA! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:One in 37 (Score:5, Informative)
(Roulette has 18 black, 18 red, and 1 green for those not in the know.)
Re:One in 37 (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:One in 37 (Score:4, Interesting)
OMG (Score:3, Funny)
I think that might be a federal crime!
So what happens if reaches 100%? (Score:4, Interesting)
At 300m across, it is small enough to be nuked out of harm's way. And fortunately, we still have a lot of time on our side to plan and fly a mission to blast it to rubble, or at least into a different trajectory. But this would mean at least temporarily revoking some treaties regarding nuclear detonations in space. And how will the bill be divided up? What happens if is eventually determined that this thing will land in central Asia or Africa - will unaffected countries still be willing to pick up the tab?
Looks like we will need to develop some sort of (funded) international contingency plan to deal with dangers from space, even if it is eventually determined this particular rock will miss us.
Re:So what happens if reaches 100%? (Score:4, Insightful)
gosh, maybe even just a little 'love tap'
delta V is a function of how hard you smack it, and from how far away..
Re:So what happens if reaches 100%? (Score:3, Informative)
Now let's fix up some bad concepts here. First, a detonation of a hydrogen bomb will provide impulse force, neither constant or gradual. Second, there is no mass in gamma ray (it's a photon). Alpha particles will be produced but it's insignificant compared to the asteriod, so we can omit
Sound betting advice (Score:5, Funny)
Crash (Score:4, Funny)
-Peter
Chain asteroid (Score:5, Funny)
Hi
I am Prince Okabaoakauu of of the microbial strain found on Asteroid Mn4. We control the motion of our asteroid and can divert it safely if the earthlings wish so. However we are not sure if the earthlings(a.k.a. you) want a collision or not. Hence to help us decide , please forward this mail to 12 people within 1 hour of receiving the mail if you do not want a collision. You will also get a free mobile phone and 2 Ipods. If you do NOT immediately forward this email we will assume that you want the collision.
Thanks
I JUST RECVD THIS MAIL, PLS FWD IT TO ALL UR FRIENDS
We should all be thanking our Gods... (Score:3, Funny)
Another link and Impact Effects Calculator! (Score:5, Informative)
I ran it through the calculator for a 400 meter asteroid (from the article) made of dense rock (assumed) at 17 km/s and 45 degree impact (suggested by the calculator). I also dropped it in 1000 m of water, as it has a 75% chance of landing in the oceans.
Results
- Impact Energy: 1.23 x 10^19 Joules
- Crater Formed in Seafloor: 2.46 km diameter
- Earthquake: 6.0 on Richter Scale
- Radiant Flux at 100 km: 7.68 times that of sun
Numbers should, of course, be taken with a grain of saltImpact effect of a grain of salt. (Score:5, Funny)
Specifically, I used a 0.0003 meter grain of salt with a density of 2165 kg/m^3 (suggested by the I'm Feeling Lucky result for how big is a grain of salt [google.com]) at 17km/s and 45 degree impact, and dropped it in 1000 meters of water.
Results
- Impact Energy: This projectile is so small that it burns up during atmospheric traverse
- Crater Formed in Seafloor: Are you kidding?
- Earthquake: It burns up in the freakin' atmosphere!
- Radiant Flux at 100 km: You're an idiot.
I really don't see what you're so worried about.Re:Another link and Impact Effects Calculator! (Score:3, Informative)
I'd assume that the larger crater size is down to the slower speed means rhat less of the mass is vaporised by heat on the way through the atmosphere. So, less damage than y
The probability *should* rise before falling (Score:5, Insightful)
I suspect that this is what will happen. Could easily be wrong, though.
Re:The probability *should* rise before falling (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:The probability *should* rise before falling (Score:3, Informative)
I finally got back in to NASA, and MN4 is now a Torino 0 object, with the 2029 event gone entirely.
Well Since We're /.ing the site... (Score:5, Informative)
Crazy, I was just checking my bookmark on this when the slashdot article popped up. Anyways..
Here is the wikipedia page explaining the Torino Scale. I still wouldn't worry about it until the thing hit at least a 8 or so. The article gives a nice explanation of what astronomers would do in warning the governments in the event they thought this thing deserved any real attention.
Torino Scale [wikipedia.org]Rocket Upper Stage? (Score:3, Interesting)
~Lake
Inching up is to be expected (Score:4, Insightful)
Keep in mind that the very nature of the situation will result in the probability slowly creeping upward until (hopefully of course), it is eliminated entirely. The very nature of having a low-probability situation whose likelihood has to be determined with continued measurements to increase the precision of the prediction means that as the likely set of paths is refined, the cylinder that represents the likely set of paths of the asteroid shrinks. Because it shrinks, the probability that it will be at any given point in that cylinder goes up.
At the point when the cylinder is projected to miss Earth entirely, the probability of impact will suddenly go to (very near) zero. In other words, the very nature of the situation regarding refining the data we have means that the probability will creep slowly upward before it goes to zero. (This happens for all close encounters, of course; it's just that no one's watching the actual probabilities for those too carefully.)
So the steady rise of the impact probability may be disquieting, but it is not unexpected and does not actually indicate anything particularly additionally troubling going on.
Girls in the neighborhood (Score:3, Funny)
Finally, slashdot readers get laid.
This would almost make it worth wiping out civilization as we know it.
Three days ahead of the tax deadline. (Score:4, Funny)
Free Tacos? (Score:4, Funny)
It's a booster rocket shell (Score:3, Insightful)
If it crashes the aliens better buckle up... (Score:3, Informative)
Note that this assumes 4940 megatons in kinetic energy, and Nasa says it's "only" 1600.
This just in: asteroid to miss Earth. (Score:4, Informative)
1 in 56,000.
DOWN TO 1 in 56,000 (Score:3, Informative)
Now Torino 0 (Score:3, Informative)
Torino scale updated - 0 (Score:3, Informative)
Updated, odds now at 1.8e-05 (Score:3, Informative)
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
I really appreciate your sig line more (Score:5, Funny)
Re:So.... (Score:3, Interesting)
but it does raise the issue of needing more money put into research and defense in case an asteriod is found
Does anyone get the idea that someone could possibly be playing with the numbers to get funding for someone's pet project? I put a certain level of trust in NASA and I don't think the current data is necessarily inaccurate, but the thought did cross my mind. What do Slashdotters think?
Re:I can only wonder (Score:3, Insightful)
To 100%, of course. Now that the asteroid is closely monitored, the orbit can be measured with sufficient precision in a few more weeks or months of observations.
Given that the predicted hit is in 2029, waiting two or three months will not be fatal.
Re:I can only wonder (Score:5, Insightful)
The reason why we don't have a system to deflect asteroids right now is because asteroids are one of those things that "could happen" in the far off future.
It's like smoking. It's not guaranteed to kill you, and nobody drops dead after a single puff. Some smokers live really long lives. So smoking is viewed as something that's "bad for you", not an instant death sentence.
Therefore, we've got a lot of people who smoke in the world.
However, pulling out a shotgun, pointing it at your face, and pulling the trigger is unquestionably lethal.
Therefore, the only people who do that are people who really want to die.
The difference is that we don't always think about things that *might* cause harm, but we always think about things that *will* cause harm.
This is just one of the many ways that the human brain is a little screwed up about risk management. It worked when we were on the plains of Africa and needed to evade predators and manage to survive, but it doesn't necessarily hold up now.
Now, the blessing in disguize is that a quarter century is very much long enough to figure out what to do. Remember, we've got more than enough knowlege to do it -- computers to plot trajectories, a variety of tested and untested propulsion and power systems, techniques, etc. In the quarter of a century timespan, we may just need to paint one side white to provide the push. So, in some sense, it's even easier than trying to go from nothing to the moon landing.
But what we lack, like most things in space, is a feeling of urgency to really do something about it. Thus, this is a blessing in disguize. If they give it a decent possibility of really hitting Earth, 25 years in the future, we've got time to do something about it in ways that if they said that it'll probably hit tomorrow we won't.
Same way I know several folk who, when their doctors told them that they were going to be dead in x years if they didn't quit smoking, were able to go cold turkey.
Re:I can only wonder (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:I can only wonder (Score:4, Insightful)
More interesting is whether a methane burp [baltimoresun.com] from clathrates will result in a cascade leading to a global extinction event during your lifetime.
Re:2 Interesting Conjectures (Score:3, Informative)
And the server's name is NEO standing for Near Earth Object.
Re:We're all gonna die! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:A thought on blowing it up with a warhead (Score:3, Insightful)
If all we do is break it up, but don't generate a miss, there will still be an impact. The kinetic energy of the collision is based on mass and velocity, which the asteroid would still have virtually all of. If it can be converted into enough pieces, the surface area might be increased to a point where each piece burns up in the atmosphere (I doubt the real possibility of this, but I'll go with it as a thought experiment) - but that would still deposit all that kinetic ener
Re:A thought on blowing it up with a warhead (Score:3, Informative)
Re:A thought on blowing it up with a warhead (Score:3, Funny)
In reality, I would hope whatever plan they would use would break it into small enough pieces that the majority would burn up in the atmosphere.
Re:A thought on blowing it up with a warhead (Score:3, Informative)