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Science

Big Arctic Perils Seen in Warming 454

gollum123 wrote in with news of a new study of warming in the Arctic, showing that warming from greenhouse gases is causing vast changes in the region. If your lifestyle depends on cold and frozen rather than mild and damp, you're in deep trouble.
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Big Arctic Perils Seen in Warming

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  • Terrific! (Score:3, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday October 30, 2004 @12:58PM (#10673545)
    I guess I'll be buying property in Antartica. "The Sunshite State - Reloaded"
    • Re:Terrific! (Score:5, Interesting)

      by 0123456 ( 636235 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:01PM (#10673555)
      "I guess I'll be buying property in Antartica."

      Hate to disappoint you, but Antarctica has been cooling for years: it's only the Arctic which has been warming (and much of that is because many parts of the Arctic were unusually cold a couple of decades ago and is returning to more normal temperatures).
      • Re:Terrific! (Score:4, Interesting)

        by RedWizzard ( 192002 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @04:40PM (#10674879)
        Hate to disappoint you, but Antarctica has been cooling for years:
        It ain't that simple. The pole seems to have cooled slightly, and most of Antarctica seems to show a statistically insignificant warming trend, but the Antarctic Peninsula is showing warming of about 2.5 degrees over the last 50 years (take a look at the graph on this page [antarctica.ac.uk]). Which is why Antarctic ice shelves been retreating for 30 years [nsidc.org].
  • Honest question (Score:5, Insightful)

    by geeveees ( 690232 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:03PM (#10673570) Homepage Journal

    I'm not trolling I just have an honest question...

    When that big lump of ice out there in the North Pole melts, will we *notice* it at all?

    My reasoning is that most of the ice is underwater, and ice takes up more cm than water, so there would be a smaller volume of water than there is ice. Sure some of the ice is above sealevel but surely the difference in volume compensates for this?

    Where am I wrong?

    • Re:Honest question (Score:2, Informative)

      by F2F ( 11474 )
      antarctica is a continent covered by ice, 3km of it in some places. not really 'underwater'. same for greenland -- the second biggest ice sheet.

    • Re:Honest question (Score:5, Informative)

      by SharpFang ( 651121 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:12PM (#10673625) Homepage Journal
      Nowhere except the "north". Actually the ice on the north melting wouldn't change a thing as it's immersed and would just replace its own volume with water. But the southern cap is completely different. It lies on top of a huge landmass and is helluva big. Melt it and it will raise ocean levels.
    • Re:Honest question (Score:5, Insightful)

      by broothal ( 186066 ) <christian@fabel.dk> on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:13PM (#10673627) Homepage Journal
      It's not the amount of water that's the problem. It's the contents.

      The ice is not salt water. It's fresh water. When that fresh water melts it will decrease the salt concentration significantly. It could, in theory, slow down the Gulf stream. And this is where trouble starts.
      • Re:Honest question (Score:3, Informative)

        by bs_02_06_02 ( 670476 )
        Fresh water does slow down the gulf stream which restarts an ice age, which re-builds the ice shelves in Antarctica, North America, etc.

        Saw it on Discovery Channel several weeks ago.
    • Re:Honest question (Score:5, Informative)

      by Zocalo ( 252965 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:19PM (#10673669) Homepage
      Lots of people get confused over this, not suprising given the off hand way this gets used to promote the viewpoints that global warming will or will not cause the sea levels to rise due to the ice caps melting. The basic fact is that a lump of ice, whether it's an ice cube in a glass or an iceberg in an ocean, will displace it's own mass of water. So, if our iceberg weighs 1m tonnes, then the volume of water it will be displacing will also weigh 1m tonnes. If it melts, then then water level will not change in the slightest, if we ignore other factors such as evaporation and so on. The part of an iceberg visible above the water level is the additional volume created by the property of water to expand when it is frozen.

      All well and good - we can have all the floating ice in the world melt and the sea levels won't be effected in the slightest. However, not all ice is floating freely on an ocean - a good deal of it lies over land; if the ice on the northern areas of Eurasia, North America, and the Antarctic land mass melts, or moves as a glacial flow to warmer climes and melts, then the water that is produced will eventually flow into the seas. That ice melt *will* contribute to a rise in the oceans, and it's kind of difficult to imagine a scenario where just the free floating ice melts, while that over land remains unaffected.

    • One theory I'd heard is that one short term result is that more icebergs than 'normal' would descend into warmer waters, thus cooling them (because the vast bulk is underwater, and slowly melting). If enough icebergs descend into the Gulfstream it'll cool down enough to severely worsen the Western European winter climate. This would make winters here bitter cold, and summers less attractive than they are now. This, I think, people would notice.

      "Suffering effects of global warming; send blankets."

      To summar
    • by tylernt ( 581794 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:38PM (#10673804)
      Well, you see, when the ice melts and the Gulf stream turns into freshwater, the temperature of the buoys will read 13 degrees cooler than normal, and little lights will blink on a computer. But no-one will take it seriously, especially the vice president, until the helicopters freeze and crash because their fuel froze because it was -150*F, because a reverse funnel thing made air from space come down in a big hurricane thing only over land. THEN they'll relize there are these three big storms coming down and will destroy all life on earth, except the people in libraries in flooded New York and the guys walking around in Arctic gear. And even then it will suck because they have to burn books and cut the rope that the guys are hanging from, and then the wolves will attack when they try to get medicine from a ship floating in New York (except the water's frozen now), and after they get away from the wolves the frost forming on everything really fast will make them have to run as fast as they can back to the library. Finally the arctic dudes will make it to the library and the little kid with cancer is saved by an ambulance at the las minute, and everybody moves to Mexico to live in tent cities and these long hanger looking things, and the vice president (who's now President because of another helicopter crash) will admit he was wrong and Global Warming is bad, real bad, because now the guys in the space station can see that all of the US is now snow and ice.

      That's why.

      You also don't need to watch 'The Day After Tomorrow' now.
  • by Timesprout ( 579035 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:04PM (#10673578)
    Hasn't the artic been warming for the last 10,000 years since the last Ice Age? I'm sure mankind is contributing somehow to this process but why is what seems to be a natural cycle of the earth an inherrently bad thing? Its just another natural phenomenon we must learn to deal with with like earthquakes, volcanoes, storms etc.
  • by SharpFang ( 651121 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:04PM (#10673579) Homepage Journal
    ...and we should accept it. Is it fault of humans? Maybe, maybe not. But remember there were times where glacier covered half the Europe, there were times when Sahara was a green country, when what today is mediterran sea was a valley of a huge river... It just happens. Now just be wise and prepare to face it instead of looking who is to blame.
    • But remember there were times where glacier covered half the Europe, there were times when Sahara was a green country, when what today is mediterran sea was a valley of a huge river

      And we know how many humans survived those climate changes!
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • If you see a truck coming your way at high speed, you don't try to find out whether the driver is drunk, a psycho, hired pro killer or government agent who is out to get you. You just try to dodge the truck and try to find out why it was going right at you later.
        We have the fact: Global temperature is rising. Now if finding the original cause of this will help stopping it or dealing with it in responsible manner, go, do it. But if the only reason is so that some scientist in his lab, immersed to his neck in
    • There is no doubt that we are partially responsible. I think you will need to accept that eventually.

      "Now just be wise and prepare to face it instead of looking who is to blame."

      I don't buy this false dichotomy. We need to do both. At a minimum we need to humiliate and discredit all those people who claimed that this was not happening or that it would be good for us.
    • I believe that being wise also includes investigating whether we have had any impact and, if so, attempting to reverse that effect and prevent any future impact.

      If we only look toward our future, we'll never learn from our past, and learning from our past is where our true wisdom is derived.

      ::Colz Grigor

    • We're facing another climate change. ...and we should accept it. Is it fault of humans? Maybe, maybe not.

      So, you are saying we should calmly accept the death of possibly billions of people because we can't get our act together on consumption and birth control? That's bullshit.

      It just happens.

      No, it doesn't "just happen". Self-inflicted ecological disaster is one of the most frequent ways in which big civilizations end. We are on our way to repeat that on a global scale; if it isn't through global w
  • by Derling Whirvish ( 636322 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:09PM (#10673602) Journal
    Let's see: the Sun is at an 8000-year high [space.com] for solar activity, Mars is emerging from its own Ice Age [space.com] and its polar caps are disappearing, and the Earth's magnetic field strength [popularmechanics.com] is approaching nil before it reconstitutes with an opposite polarity. And we are to believe that human activity is somehow solely resposible for global warming?
    • by danharan ( 714822 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:18PM (#10673661) Journal
      Humans don't have to be solely responsible for us to do something. That there are other factors in climate change does not mean we should not change those which we have control over.
      • by Jerf ( 17166 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @03:06PM (#10674376) Journal
        That there are other factors in climate change does not mean we should not change those which we have control over.

        It can, if our changes are expensive (which they are, and "expensive" automatically translates into human lives), and we can't have a significant effect anyhow, which is an open question.

        Reflexive knee-jerking is not the right solution, no matter what emotional terms people like you wrap it in.
    • And we are to believe that human activity is somehow solely resposible for global warming?

      Believe whatever you want to, but if you have build your house on permafrost (or some crucial resources, like oil-pipelines in your society) you will surely have to pay for it.
    • I don't believe that mankind is solely responsible, but you have taken all three of your articles out context. The magnetic field is 90% of what it was 100 years ago, not necessarily approaching nil. The article you linked said that the 8000-yr high shouldn't necessarily be taken as a cause of global warming- sunspots are mostly magnetic, not thermal, and the article stated a firm connection is elusive.
      • The magnetic field is 90% of what it was 100 years ago, not necessarily approaching nil.

        If that statistic were on the other side of the argument it would be taken to mean just that. A 10 percent drop in magnetic field strength over just 100 years is a free fall compared to geologic history. Assuming an arithmetic progression (and it probably is an exponentional one) there will be no magnetic field strength at all in 1000 years -- a very very small amount of geologic time. There will be nothing to protect

  • by Morgan Schauerte ( 752707 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:09PM (#10673606)
    I live in the Northwest Territories (Canada) and I can say in the last 15 years the winters have become much warmer. I remember stretched where is was -35 C for 3 weeks at a time. Now it only reaches that occasionally. I cannot speak for long term trends however. And yes, I did walk to school both ways uphill.
  • Hopefully... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by a_hofmann ( 253827 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:12PM (#10673626) Homepage
    ...people will soon start to realize the potential harm these issues can do to our society as a whole. I cannot understand how any sane person is able to ignore the simple fact of environmental problems getting worse over time.

    The US government still manages to deny cooperation on the Kyoto Protocol with most stupid arguments, a treaty already ratified by 125 countries all over the world.

    "The world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is China. Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. This is a challenge that requires a 100 percent effort; ours, and the rest of the world's. America's unwillingness to embrace a flawed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies as any abdication of responsibility. To the contrary, my administration is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate change. Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere." -- George W. Bush

    ???

    The greenhouse gas problem will grow at a steady level for decades after we have started countermeasures, I hope then there's enough time left afterwards.
    • The US government still manages to deny cooperation on the Kyoto Protocol with most stupid arguments, a treaty already ratified by 125 countries all over the world.

      Oh, the famous Kyoto treaty. Yes, 125 countries have ratified it but I don't think that any of those countries face anywhere near the restrictions that the US would face if we had to abide by it. If how you feed your family has anything to do with the American economy, Kyoto is bad for you. That includes all the countries that import to or expo
  • by Timesprout ( 579035 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:16PM (#10673655)
    I am prepared to send two of my ex's to the north and south poles respectively. Those cold hearted frigid bitches will soon put an end to any thawing going on.

    All I ask for saving humanity is a tropical island paradise where I can be surrounded by nubile maidens.
  • dear lord. (Score:4, Funny)

    by deft ( 253558 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @01:36PM (#10673792) Homepage
    Anyone else wipe the sleep from their eyes as they read "Big arctic Penis seen...".

    Yeah, it was only me. Dear lord, im going back to bed.
  • by Anonymous Coward
    and Republicans and "Liber-I-always-vote-for-republicans-tarians" will say "The flooded costal cities are big lie that the liberals are pushing. What we need are bigger SUVs and more logging."
  • Article is archived here. [globalclimate.org]

    There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production- with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient
  • shhhhh (Score:5, Funny)

    by dougnaka ( 631080 ) * on Saturday October 30, 2004 @03:40PM (#10674564) Homepage Journal
    Could we cut down on these stories, I, for one, want rapidly rising ocean levels to be a surprise to our coastal residents, and articles like this are giving them far too much warning.

  • Trolls (Score:5, Funny)

    by kahei ( 466208 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @04:08PM (#10674712) Homepage

    I clicked on this article specifically to see the Libertarian environment trolls come out and scream about how it's all a left-wing conspiracy and climate change is just fine, and boy, I was not disappointed.

    Well, I was disappointed in the human race I guess :)

  • CO2 warming a myth (Score:4, Interesting)

    by No_CO2_warming ( 822194 ) on Saturday October 30, 2004 @05:35PM (#10675148)
    My last post recieved a 0 - flamebait tag, so I cleaned and edited for clarity: I challenge anyone to find a factual error or false statement in my humble attempt to bust the CO2 warming myth.

    1. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is, in fact, the lifeblood of the planet, required for growth of vegetation. It is the cornerstone of the food chain. The increased CO2 aerial fertilization effect has contributed to the greening of the planet, as confirmed by satellite photography.

    2. Water vapor is by far the primary contributor of the greenhouse effect, accounting for 96 to 99%. CO2 accounts for 1 to 3%. Methane and others trace gasses account for 3. During the current interglacial period, the Earth has been about 2C cooler (The "Little Ice Age" around 1600-1700, when the Thames regularly frozen over), and it has also been about 2C warmer (The medieval warm period around 1200, when Greenland was colonized by the Vikings.) We are currently about in the middle of this natural variation, which occurred without manmade CO2.

    4. The 500k year Vostok ice core data: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/vostok.htm/ [ornl.gov] shows CO2 either in phase or lagging temperature by up to 1000 years, over four temperature oscillations. This means the CO2 does not drive temperature, but that temperature drives CO2. The most likely explanation is that the ocean outgases and releases more CO2 when temperature increases, and holds more dissolved gasses as the oceans cools.

    5. I'm not disputing the Earth may be getting relatively warmer (as we are coming out of the little ice age). One reason is likely the unusually active Sun. This report: http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/aah4688.pdf/ [cc.oulu.fi] shows that over the last several centuries, solar activity is at its highest levels. The IPCC determined that the Sun's variation in energy output were too small to explain global warming. They dismissed the sun as a likely source of Earth changing climate!. Here is a link to a recent study showing how the sun's variation could have a feedback that would drive earth's climate change: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2333133. stm/ [bbc.co.uk] The theory goes like this: When the sun is highly magnetically active, the increased solar wind shields us from cosmic radiation. Low levels of incoming comic reduce cloud formation. Reduced low level cloud formation reduces reflectivity (i.e., the Earth's albedo). More energy is absorbed instead of reflected, and the temperature increases. The difference from an active Sun to an inactive Sun was about 3% global cloud coverage. The correlation in the study is remarkable. The jury is still out, but it could explain the correlation between the Maunder minimum of the 1600's and the little ice age, and account for the warming in the last 3 decades that corresponds with unusually high solar activity at the same time.

    6. In November 1991, Danish scientists Eijil Friis-Christensen and Knud Lassen, startled the climatological world with a paper in "Science" describing a 0.95 correlation between solar cycle length and global temperature (IPCC version). "Science" writer, Richard Kerr described it as "one dazzling correlation". The blue line is temperature, the red line is solar cycle length.) As can be seen, global temperature has tended to increase in lockstep with shortening of the solar cycle length (ie. solar maxima becoming more frequent) I hope you follow the link, because one look at it, and you are forced to say, "Its the Sun, stupid." The graph is at the bottom of this link: http://http//web.dmi.dk/sol-jord/projekter/rum_vej r/oversigt.html/ [http]

    7. The best protection against climate change is a rich, technologically advanced society that can adapt to natural variation. Don't damn the 3rd

    • Arg, all my links were dead in the original post do to my formatting errors. These links actually work: 1. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is, in fact, the lifeblood of the planet, required for growth of vegetation. It is the cornerstone of the food chain. The increased CO2 aerial fertilization effect has contributed to the greening of the planet, as confirmed by satellite photography.

      2. Water vapor is by far the primary contributor of the greenhouse effect, accounting for 96 to 99%. CO2 accounts for 1 to 3%.

      • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday October 30, 2004 @06:04PM (#10675327)
        Regarding 6 :

        http://www.campusprogram.com/reference/en/wikipe di a/g/gl/global_warming.html#The%20solar%20variation %20theory

        "On May 6, 2000, however, New Scientist magazine reported that Lassen and astrophysicist Peter Thejll had updated Lassen's 1991 research and found that while the solar cycle still accounts for about half the temperature rise since 1900, it fails to explain a rise of 0.4 C since 1980. "The curves diverge after 1980," Thejll said, "and it's a startlingly large deviation. Something else is acting on the climate. ... It has the fingerprints of the greenhouse effect.

        Later that same year, Peter Stott and other researchers at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom published a paper in which they reported on the most comprehensive model simulations to date of the climate of the 20th century. Their study looked at both natural forcing agents (solar variations and volcanic emissions) as well as anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols). Like Lassen and Thejll, they found that the natural factors accounted for gradual warming to about 1960 followed by a return to late 19th-century temperatures, consistent with the gradual change in solar forcing throughout the 20th century and volcanic activity during the past few decades. These factors alone, however, could not account for the warming in recent decades. Similarly, anthropogenic forcing alone was insufficient to explain the 1910-1945 warming, but was necessary to simulate the warming since 1976."

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