How Well Do You Estimate? 374
A random UK blogger has published a quiz asking readers to estimate various numeric values which they may or may not have knowledge of; and has analyzed the resulting answers to determine how well people guess. The first part of the results looks at some specific questions, and the second part takes a look at the quiz overall.
I estimate that... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:I estimate that... (Score:5, Funny)
Why can't girls measure distances?
(Holding up a pinkie)
Because they've been told that THIS is 6 inches all their life.
AC
Re:I estimate that... (Score:4, Funny)
Q: Why are men so much better at reading maps?
A: Because only the male mind is comfortable with the concept "one inch equals one mile".
Re:I estimate that... (Score:5, Funny)
Does that imply that you are mean spirited?
Re:I estimate that... (Score:5, Interesting)
You must not be an American then
Take for example graduating from college. Did you know that there are no "below average" college graduates? Proof: In order to graduate from college you must have a GPA equating to a C or better. A C is average, therefore there are no below average college graduates.
Other estimates that I ask people from time to time. What percentage of the US population is African American (black)? What percentage of the US population has a college degree?
Although the African American question is a little skewed because of the area I live in does in fact have about 30-40% of the population as being black, the national average in 2002 is 13%. I typically get answers that the national average is 30-40%.
The college degree question is also very off. I typically get answers around 50% or higher, where its 27% as of 2003. Its some kind of myth here in the US that everyone has to go to college so they can do unskilled labor the rest of their lives. In fact, my aunt was lecturing her (adult) son that got his girlfriend pregnant with the "How are you going to pay for the kid to go to college?" routine. When neither of her parents went to college, neither her nor her husband went to college, and none of her 2 children went to college.
Ask an American and a Japanese if they are "good in math". The Japanese will typically say "no", the American will say "yes". Ask the same 2 kids to take a standardized math test, the Japanese will score better than the American.
However, although its important to feel good, its more important to look good!
Re:I estimate that... (Score:3, Insightful)
The average college graduate would be a 3.0 student?
Re:I estimate that... (Score:4, Insightful)
A: 4.0
A-: 3.67
B+: 3.33
B: 3.0
B-: 2.67
C+: 2.33
C: 2.0
etc.
Statistics (Score:3, Insightful)
Just because you make an arbitrary cutoff at 2.0, that doesn't suddenly shift the distribution to be recentered around the center of the new range.
For example, if you don't allow people with below 100 IQ to enter a room, the average IQ of the room will be higher than th
Re:I estimate that... (Score:2, Insightful)
That's not true. Lets say set A is the set of all people going to college. The people who are above the average of set A get to be part of set B, which is the subset of A that graduates. Everyone in set B is above average compared to set A,
Re:I estimate that... (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes, you need at least specific average to *graduate*, but then you don't have any assurance of doing so. My wife teaches at a college and I can assure you that there are many D's and F's given out. However, unlike highschool and social promotion thereof, those people either shape up (and retake the class) or ship out (dropping out). Many do the latter (thus "x years college" being an popular answer to last grade completed).
Graduate school is a bit different, since you need a B (3.0) average to remain in it. C's are suspension and lower is removal from the program.
I think the grades represent how some hypothetical "average" community would fair. If you are in college, you *should* fair better than the community, and if you are in graduate school you *should* fair far better than the community. Those who don't shouldn't be at that level.
Re:I estimate that... (Score:3, Insightful)
Actually, I did and have either been in college or employed by one for 15 of the past 17 years, and that silly argument was a rip off of a position by a professor of mine when I was a senior in college. He was trying to emphasize how grades have been inflated over they years in American universities. He stated that by the university's definition that "C" was "average". Also, by the university's rules one must have a "C" or better to graduate (this was a fairly
Perspective (Score:3, Interesting)
You would be describing the difference between localized perception and overall truth, the essential gap between concept and reality.
For example, I can look at the North American business market and go "Wow! Microsoft owns this market!" because all I see is Windows on the desktops.
But in truth, it is the back-end data servers from a myriad of companies and providers which are entrusted with the critical business information, not the desktop. The desktop is merely an access point and a collection of ut
Re:I estimate that... (Score:5, Insightful)
That is because grades should be a reflection of a student's mastery of the material, not how a student relates to their peers. There are classes where 70% is an A, not to get more students with A's but because that is the expected level of understanding. In fact, that class had less A's than most others with the typical 90% scale.
Ask an American and a Japanese if they are "good in math". The Japanese will typically say "no", the American will say "yes".
Most Americans feel they are not good at math and ungood at egnlish.
Re:I estimate that... (Score:4, Interesting)
This is not specific to the US. In Russia most people overestimate the percentage of people with higher education as well. (Don't have the reference handy, but you probably can't read in Russian anyway - but it's on fom.ru). Also, about 60% of Russians said they want their kids to become scientists - even while the average salary in science is around povery line and everyone knows it.
There are a lot of stereotypes regarding science, scientists and education, but we must be thankful, because they are mostly positive.
People are optimists and it shows. In fact, it is known in sociology that in many surveys (especially those about the future) people first make up their mind on whether they are optimistic or pessimistic and then answer based on this, regardless of the particular question.
Re:I estimate that... (Score:5, Funny)
No offense, but this is the worst In Soviet Russia joke ever.
Re:I estimate that... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:I estimate that... (Score:3)
That seems correct.
These countries are largely populated by people of Arab extraction who I would never describe in a million years as black, and are certainly not Nego.
This too seems correct.
However if any of these people emigrate to America they are technically African-Americans who are not black, no matter how the census bureau tries to define the term.
I agree with your logic, but you and I don't ma
Re:I estimate that... (Score:3, Funny)
I know a fellow who was quite amused on a trip to Africa to see a politically correct American (to whom the terms black and Negro were anathema) struggle to talk about the people there: "These African-Americans . . . uh, African-American Africans . . . uh, African-Africans . . . uh . . ."
good point (Score:5, Funny)
With 44.7% accuracy!
more or less.
omg.. (Score:2)
If that was the case, I'd say I over-estimate for the most part.
10, 12 inches... that's it!
Mirrors (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Mirrors (Score:2)
The real ulterior motive of the quiz was to test the theory that people who are incompetent in a given field are also lousy at estimating their own competence. I wanted to see whether the respondents who gave the poorest answers to the estimation questions were also likely to give unreasonably narrow uncertainties.
It turns out that they don't. The uncertainties given tended to be more-or-less reasonable estimates of uncertainties.
Re:Mirrors (Score:3, Informative)
In other words, people really do know what they don't know, and approximately how well they don't know it. Of course, I didn't actually read the article, but I believe this to be a reasonably good summary of it.
Re:Mirrors (Score:2, Insightful)
Perhaps /. scripts should be modified to automatically prepend a Coral [nyu.edu] link to user provided links.
This way, assuming someone posts a story with:
It would come up as:
I estimate.... (Score:2)
Re:I estimate.... (Score:2, Offtopic)
The true source IP can be extracted and listed as a special bulletin complete with a link to said IP address. When all the slashdot readers try to connect to the trojaned server, it clogs up the pipeline for the ISP and MAYBE they will get a clue that something is wrong. Meanwhile, that's one less system spewing out mail for a while.
Or better yet, subtitute the IP address in a
how well do you resist to a slashdotting ? (Score:3, Funny)
about 1 minute and 10 requests...
who the hell is Tony Benn by the way ?
Re:how well do you resist to a slashdotting ? (Score:4, Informative)
How Well? Not Better than the crowd (Score:3, Informative)
I estimate (Score:3, Funny)
Re:I estimate (Score:2, Funny)
not offtopic (Score:2, Funny)
Re:I estimate (Score:2, Funny)
Re:I estimate (Score:5, Interesting)
Substitute +2 and 0 for low karma posters, obviously...
Looking back on my posts, I have shedloads of +5s and occasional -1s in a long list of +2s... but very few +3s. Moderation is a runaway process, in which the difference between +5 and -1 is a single modpoint.
Re:I estimate (Score:4, Insightful)
+3 and +4s can be had, but they generally tend to be later posts to a discussion.
Moderation is not a runaway process than it is a positive feedback loop in relation to time and mod points.
EZ Guide to Karma Whoring (Score:4, Informative)
If you're need quick karma, do the following:
1. Post only to new discussions - those with less than 30 comments.
2. Do not reply to main story - instead reply to the first highly modded post.
3. Quote lots of facts or say something political (but keep it loosely on topic and don't use inflammatory statements or you'll get modded a troll).
4. Make your posts long. Long posts are always "Interesting". It's axiomatic.
This will probably get modded Offtopic but since I've got karma to burn and I know how to get it back - I don't think I really care.
Re:[OT] Re:I estimate (Score:2)
The main characteristic of these types of claims is that there is no possible evidence that cannot be explained by the theory.
God, as typically described, can do anything He wants, and is inscrutable (and often is described as wanting to avoid presenting proof in favor of faith). As a result, there is no evidence that can be gathered that can disprove the existance of
Uh-oh (Score:5, Funny)
Looks like we've got an ex-webserver on our hands.
.
.
"It's not dead, it's IIS!"
Re:Uh-oh (Score:5, Funny)
Mythical Man Month (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Mythical Man Month (Score:5, Informative)
Clearly you don't. That section is in Programming Pearls by Bentley, not the Mythical Man Month.
Aargh! (Score:2)
You realize that now I'm going to have to reread both of them this weekend, don't you?
Re:Mythical Man Month (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Mythical Man Month (Score:5, Insightful)
What really torques me is when you make an estimate early in the program,
and you know it's only an estimate,
and since you have only limited information it's not even a very good estimate,
and you give management all of those caveats up front,
it just doesn't matter.
For the rest of the life of the program, better estimates using more information, and even the reality of program execution will all be force-fit back into that original SWAG.
But sometimes even that original SWAG didn't matter, because it might well have been force-fit into some manager's wish-list.
Re:Mythical Man Month (Score:2)
"The project will be done in 1 to 1000 weeks"
If they demand a single number, insist they use the worst one.
If they ask for a better estimate (i.e. smaller range) tell them you can have one in 1 to 10 days.
-- less is better.
Re:Mythical Man Month (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Mythical Man Month (Score:2)
You've just described Management. O_O
Soko.
I haven't read the article, but... (Score:2, Funny)
I estimate.... (Score:3, Funny)
Well as a subscriber to slashdot (Score:2)
--
I write stuff [livejournal.com], but not that well and not that often...
I'm pretty good (Score:4, Funny)
How to Lie with Statistics (Score:2, Informative)
And the result is: (Score:3, Funny)
I estimate the blogger will have a larger (Score:2, Funny)
Estimate (Score:5, Insightful)
have a... (Score:3, Informative)
Operational Research? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Operational Research? (Score:2, Interesting)
(define (sqr n c)
(define (s x n c)
(if (zero? c)
x
(s (/ (+ x (/ n x)) 2) n (- c 1))))
(s n n c))
Estimating distances.. (Score:5, Interesting)
If you have difficulty estimating a distance ( range), divide the distance in two, and try estimating that.
This sounds stupid, but actually works. Well, it worked for me. I'll never forget how I laughed in my head at the suggestion, and my astonishment at it actually working.
Mike.
Re:Estimating distances.. (Score:5, Funny)
Google Cache (Score:5, Informative)
Part 2 [66.102.9.104]
Estimating Anecdote (Score:5, Interesting)
At lunches, we would sometimes try to stump our CTO a grey beard who is famous for work in information theory and general genius. We had never succeeded, even with obscure questions in biology "How do Prions work?", physics "What order are the colors of the rainbow, and why?", "How does the Corriolus effect work?", etc. that none of us had any particular knowledge of, and always had to research afterwards to determine the correctness of his answers.
So, I posed the question to the group "How many leaves are on that tree outside the window?" It was a ~30 foot tall, bushy tree in the height of summer. I hoped he'd take the bait.. I thought this was going to be very hard to "get right", and it would even be difficult come up with a plausible answer.
After a few moments, I set off the responses by saying that I thought it easily had 10k leaves, possibly 20k or more.
Everyone gasped. "Oh no! No way..." and then proceeded to offer lower and lower estimates.
The responses started with me and made their way up in the seniority ranks (I was the most junior) all the way up to the CTO. He said "Oh! those kinds of things are notoriously hard to estimate. We typically overestimate grossly in counting things of plentitude. Oh, I don't know. 200?".
Finally we had him. There was no way there were 200 leaves on that tree.
Later, in discussion, a trend became clear. The more senior the person, the more conservative was their response, even to the ridiculous level of our CTO saying a tree in full flush, that he could see right outside of the window, had 200 leaves, when it most plainly had many, many more.
Anyone want to hazard a guess? How many leaves on say, an adult Sycamore (or Maple, Oak, etc.)?
Re:Estimating Anecdote (Score:5, Funny)
1. The sport of choice for unemployed or incarcerated people is: basketball.
2. The sport of choice for maintenance level employees is: bowling.
3. The sport of choice for blue-collar workers is: football.
4. The sport of choice for supervisors is: baseball.
5. The sport of choice for middle management is: tennis.
6. The sport of choice for corporate officers is: golf.
Conclusion: The higher you rise in the corporate structure, the smaller your balls become.
Re:Estimating Anecdote (Score:2)
There are about 10k-20k on the tree outside my window. It's about 8 stories high, not shadowed by other trees and I have no idea what kind of tree it is. I'm assuming there are few leaves near the core.
So you have some sort of good estimates?
Re:Estimating Anecdote (Score:2)
The situation was the same that day. We couldn't resolve it. Everyone agreed the CTO was way off, but we argued about whether 5k, 10k or 50k was more likely correct (in datamining, "likely correct" is all you talk about).
We thought about doing some image processing. You could take a picture and do some counting using a
Re:Estimating Anecdote (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Estimating Anecdote (Score:2)
Re:Estimating Anecdote (Score:3, Informative)
The text is white on white, so it's probably really secret.
Awesome! Thx so much for finding this. (Score:2)
And, I probably had the closest estimate! The tree we were looking at was nowhere near as big as an Oak.. so maybe it was half to a tenth as many leaves. Who knows, who cares? I see thousands in that paper. w00t.
Mod parent up! (Score:2)
Nice graph, lots of cool numbers! (Score:2)
Estimate: To calculate approximately (the amount, extent, magnitude, position, or value of something).
Guess: To predict (a result or an event) without sufficient information.
Predict: To state, tell about, or make known in advance, especially on the basis of special knowledge.
Based on these definitions, different people would either guess or estimate (or state / predict) (the known value of) the distance between Edinburgh and Cardiff.
I saw his nice graph, looks like SPSS.
Estimate? (Score:2)
Re:Estimate? (Score:2)
Except for 'l's, your tolerance for those is at least ±1.
Time and Miles (Score:4, Interesting)
Similarly, I will look at the odometer in my car, drive a distance, and guess that it's 10 miles later. Looking down, 10.1.
The best is when you combine them. "How long before we get there?" the wife asks. "About 47 minutes," say I, and 47 minutes later arrive at our destination.
I note this only because most everyone else seems incredibly bad at this. As when someone gives you loose directions to a place like this, "Oh, go about 3 miles, then turn left on Main St." Half a mile later I'm slamming on the breaks 'cause I just past a sign saying "Main St." Or when they tell you it's a 5 minute drive, when it's really 15. Drives me batty.
In short, I estimate that just about everyone sucks at estimating. Funny thing is people always over-estimate distance and under-estimate time.
Re:Time and Miles (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Time and Miles (Score:2)
I get so confused sometimes.
hmmmmm... (Score:2)
Estimation vs Prediction (Score:4, Informative)
Estimation is making an educated guess at a quantity without scientifically measuring it, usually with some sort of observation.
"I reckon thats 8 inches long and 2 inches thick."
Prediction is using past experience to state that an event will happen.
Re:Estimation vs Prediction (Score:3, Funny)
On second thoughts, I really don't want to know.
Re:Estimation vs Prediction (Score:2)
Damn, that was shameless.
sheds some new light on the DARPA terror pool (Score:2, Interesting)
When Poindexter tried to set up a terror gambling pool to predict terror events, he was relying on something like this-- that collective knowledge would somehow converge on the right answer, or something close enough to be useful.
The results from this survey suggest that that's probably true for something where the guessers/bettors actually have some real knowledge, however deeply buried in their mem
About the article... (Score:5, Interesting)
Random Blogger? (Score:2)
Light From the Sun (Score:5, Funny)
I guess it depends on if the chute opens or not [slashdot.org]
Reminds me of how they teach math now (Score:5, Interesting)
They spend a lot of time on grouping. For example What is 97 + 198? I was taught to add 8 and 7, carry the one etc...
They are taught to group the numbers, the instantly recognize that the answer is close to 300, then see how it differs from the 100s. 97 is 3 less, 198 is 2 less. Now add the 3 and 2, getting 5.
The answer is of course 300 - 5, or 295.
I find this method very intuitive.
Re:Reminds me of how they teach math now (Score:2)
( x * 78 )
( x * 80 ) - ( 2 x ) [ since 2x is easy ]
( x * 100 ) - ( 2 x * 10 ) - ( 2 x )
Efficient? Probably not for a computer, but its fast for humans.
Double and Double again (Score:3, Insightful)
While I wont say its perfect it comes darn close when you take into account all the administrative overhead, meeting, decisions, etc.
And since MOST of us developers have a good idead of what our real capablities are. We want to blurt out an ego answer to ourselves, yeah 50 hrs, and if we were in a cage locked up with NOTHING else to do we probably could do it in that timeframe, but bathroom caffine breaks etc take their toll, errr troll
I estimate pretty well... (Score:2, Funny)
The necessity of estimation (Score:3, Insightful)
People at large seem to lack important estimation skills. In my observation, people seem to consider a billion, million, and trillion more or less the same. In a December 2003 issue of Vanity Fair, Graydon Carter estimated the U.S. Budget deficit at 6.4 quadrillion dollars. To anyone with an actual understanding of such a number, that figure is completely ludicrous - but it went unoticed by the editors.
We need increased numerical literacy - so that people understand just how much money 1 million vs. 10 million vs 100 million etc etc actually is. I'm sick of hearing someone say 'are you aware that we spend $x billion dollars a year on thing y?' and then expect me to be outraged or surprised. They just think that 'billion' sounds like a lot - but would they have the same response if it were $x*100 million, or $x*10 billion?
Re:The necessity of estimation (Score:2)
Estimate this: (Score:2)
significance (Score:5, Interesting)
How well do you summarize? (Score:2)
Amusing anecdote (Score:5, Funny)
So she pointed a car parked nearby and asked one of the students how far he thought the car was. His reply, "50 gallons."
Incredulous, she said that his answer didn't make sense.
"But that's the great thing about estimation! It doesn't have to be right!"
Estimate vs. Knowledge (Score:3, Insightful)
For example answering "the year that Harold II became King of England" requires knowledge of English history. Any answer prior to the mid 1900s is a reasonable one for a person who only knows about Queen Elizabeth II.
People with more knowledge know this a pre-Norman Conquest King and so the answer must be before 1066. But that reduction in the scope of the answer comes from existing knowledge not by estimating.
used for bidding hogs, oil leases, etc. (Score:5, Informative)
Anchoring and adjustment (Score:3, Interesting)
Vote of No Confidence (Score:4, Insightful)
The data could be improved by adding the a "no-confidence" checkbox to each question in addition to demanding a numeric answer. With this, he could compare whether people's estimates were better or worse where they thought they knew the answer. This would make a nice complement to measuring raw estimating power.
Re:I estimate (Score:2)
Re:Guestimate (Score:2)