Hawking Gracefully, Formally Loses Black Hole Bet 485
Liora writes "Today at the 17th International Conference on General Relativity and Gravitation in Dublin, Cambridge University professor Stephen Hawking said in his talk titled The Information Paradox for Black Holes that he was wrong about the formation of an event horizon in a black hole, and that matter is not destroyed in a way defying subatomic theory, as he had previously believed. According to the talk's short, "the way the information gets out seems to be that a true event horizon never forms, just an apparent horizon." A New York Times story and a Wired story are available, both apparently based on Reuters information." (This is the formal announcement promised last week.)
obNoRegLink (Score:5, Informative)
Anyway, here's the obligatory reg-free link:
Are you looking at ME? [nytimes.com]
(Courtesy of these fine folks [blogspace.com])
Re:obNoRegLink (Score:2, Informative)
we have to show web sites that forcing registration for marketing / tracking purposes leads to a reg database full of crap.
Re:obNoRegLink (Score:3, Insightful)
Actually, doing this leads to the NYT having a smaller database, including one entry for all users that share the login. I think the site is a good idea, but its probably doing them a favor, by letting many users who almost never view their site use a single logend. This is better (for them) than a database full of people that visit the site every 6-12 months. But it is probably no
Re:obNoRegLink (Score:2, Informative)
Sure, there is less information from using bugmenot logins, but that isn't what NYT wants. If NYT didn't want a database full over people who visit the site every 6-12 months, they wouldn't require registration at all.
NYT wants a database full of individual readers, so they can track their reading habits, see what people click on, what people are interested in.
MC Hawking's breif history of rhyme (Score:3, Funny)
how many....didn't he already....what the..... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:how many....didn't he already....what the..... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:how many....didn't he already....what the..... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:how many....didn't he already....what the..... (Score:3, Insightful)
Good for Hawking (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:4, Interesting)
I've never been very tolerant of arrogant professors. They often believe they can't be wrong, and that it's absurd to suggest that there's an alternative to their way of thinking.
I've also seen professors claim others' ideas as their own.
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:2, Informative)
Some more info here [slashdot.org], but you can probably google for some *real* information ;)
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:2)
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:2)
Good for Physics (Score:3, Insightful)
He has been debating the issue for 30 years, and only now has he changed his mind. It took a lot of other evidence for him to change his theory, and it was a hot debate all the way. Hey, he made a bet of honor and stood by his opinion until others proved (to his own satisfaction) he was wrong.
That is what dealing with people in his realm of intelligence can be like. It may not always be pleasant and it may take a long time to get them to ad
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Like Einstein? (Score:5, Insightful)
Wasted? Nonsense.
The objections Einstein posed to quantum theory were not spurious fluff, but hard-nosed challenges that any successful theory would have to meet. He made Bohr sweat more than once.
Would you prefer we just let something as absurd as quantum mechanics just slide? Scientists might as well all join the monestaries again.
Your statement "pretty much known to be true" is timid and sugary. Bring on the Einsteins.
Re:Like Einstein? (Score:2)
*sniff*
Smells like Slashdot!
Re:Like Einstein? (Score:5, Interesting)
For example, a number of very accurate clever experiments have been going on in the past decade or two to prove if the electric field in Coulomb's Law really goes as 1/r^2. These experiments have shown that it goes as 1/r^n where the error bars are tiny, but still enclose '2'. [Sorry, too lazy to look up the actual uncertainty numbers.]
Some people might think this is a waste of time, but if it was shown n=1.99999997 that would be a HUGE deal, and would require a re-write not only of Maxwell's laws, but of quantum field theory, and the standard model too.
Re:Good for Hawking (Score:3, Insightful)
Sure, most people should behave that way, but as often as not they don't. So it is noteworthy that Hawking is displaying class. Politicians have been lying since before you and I were born, so it's no surprise when they do it. Captains o
More info.. (Score:4, Funny)
I didn't know hawking sold so well
Anyway, to be on topic - can someone give more technical information on this? Many of us probably have a fairly high understanding of maths and physics, and want more details...
Re:More info.. (Score:2, Informative)
You can read more here: National Academies Press [nap.edu]
"Entering the Sunday Times best-seller list within two weeks of publication, it rapidly reached number one, where it remained unchallenged throughout the summer. The book had already broken many records and indeed went on to break them all stay- ing on the list in Britain for a staggering 234 weeks, and notching up British sales in excess of 600,000 in hardback before Ha
Re:More info.. (Score:2)
It referred to him as a best-selling author of the book. Not the author of the best-selling book. This sentence structure tends to indicate that the author was sold many times, as "best-selling" modified the author. It wasn't sarcasm. It was a grammar flame.
Re:More info.. (Score:2)
For instance, I could say "Best-selling author Stephen King's new book Big Scary Stuff comes out on Friday", meaning that King has best-selling books. This is distinct from "Stephen King is the author of the best-seller Jurassic Park", for the latter means that particular book was a best-seller. For one final exa
Re:More info.. (Score:2)
The latter also means that Michael Crichton's lawyers will be around to your house any second now to corpse you up.
Re:More info.. (Score:2)
So, uh, sorry Mr. Crichton and Mr. King about that... my mistake
Re:More info.. (Score:2)
Oh well.
Re:More info.. (Score:3, Funny)
(Lousy
Re:HA! (Score:3, Funny)
BBC Article (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:BBC Article (Score:2, Interesting)
Seventy years ago, Einstein estimated that there were only two people in the world who understood general relativity, and he was one of them.
Re:BBC Article (Score:5, Interesting)
Seventy years ago, Einstein estimated that there were only two people in the world who understood general relativity, and he was one of them.
Einstein said that, at that time, only three people in the world understood General Relativity. When a reporter asked Arthur Eddington (the second best person that, in fact, did know general relativity) for confirmation, he replied that he could not recall the third one.
Re:BBC Article (Score:2)
Re:BBC Article (Score:5, Interesting)
I replied that physics IS really hard, and relies on a strong mathematical basis, and thus entails lots and LOTS of math. His counterreply was that this was questionable, and that one COULD be a physicist without going through the math. And he proceeded to tell me how he read Copernicus and Galileo's writings in one of his supposed 'physics' classes.
I tried to explain that without math, physics would be philosophical conjecture. Actually, physics WAS philosophy back in the day, it was called "natural philosophy". However, they diverged, the mathetically and experimentally based one becoming physics (and chemistry and biology, etc). Funny quote - one of my professors remarked that "Physics is Philosophy with Integrals."
Anyway, it was a weird situation. Although he did finally come around and told me that he realized without math, physics would be just bullshit. But he was convinced there was a much easier way to teach advanced physics than with lots of equations.
Re:BBC Article (Score:3, Informative)
In Universe in the Nutshell, Hawking puts the odds at macroscopic time travel being possible at less than 10^(10^60) to one against.
And no, time travel is not crackpot stuff. Time travel is fun stuff!
bet was more of a joke (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:bet was more of a joke (Score:2)
We care about who was right and who was wrong because we look to these people to be our guides and priests in their chose areas of expertise. Reports on who was right and who was wrong are important to us when we make decisions about who to trust, and who to respect in matters of physics.
Re:bet was more of a joke (Score:3, Insightful)
It's more to show that even the most eminent and revered are human, and it's reassuring to know these people aren't so far out of touch as to not have a bit of fun now and again.
For example, I went to a lecture by Sir Patrick Moore [wikipedia.org], at which he was asked questions as to whether he believed the electrical universe theory [kronia.com] could be correct. His answer? "I hope not, I owe
No parallel universes? Bastard! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:No parallel universes? Bastard! (Score:2)
Parallel universes (Score:5, Informative)
Summary: Parallel universes aren't ruled out (at least by this article) so keep dreaming big! We'll need those other universes when entropy runs out in this one. Even better, ask someone who knows string theory whether the idea of multiple universes would be ruled out IF Hawking is right. Remember, he just lost a bet. He may be sure this time, but who's to say some bright kid 200 years from now won't have a different perspective... blah blah hypothetical
Re:No parallel universes? Bastard! (Score:3, Insightful)
Yikes (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Yikes (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Yikes (Score:2)
Re:Yikes (Score:2)
Re:Yikes (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Yikes (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Yikes (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Yikes (Score:3, Funny)
I think it's just conclusive proof he writes his papers with a program similar to the following:
UserFriendly (Score:3, Funny)
So..... (Score:2)
Re:So..... Event Horizon/The Black Hole (Score:2)
Hawking and his books. (Score:2)
Re:Hawking and his books. (Score:2, Interesting)
Several years ago (well, it's probably more like 10 now...ugh) I saw Hawkings give a lecture aimed at the layman to a packed theatre. It was really very impressive -- despite the nature of what he was talking about and his physical limitations, he was engaging, humourous, and very understandable. He's a credit to his field and science in general -- not only through his intellectual ach
Well... Duh (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Well... Duh (Score:3, Interesting)
Uh, this [hawking.org.uk] is the proper link
Obligatory Futurma episode quotation (Score:5, Funny)
Hawking: Sure. Why not?
Fry: Let me ask you something. Has anyone ever discovered a hole in nothing with monsters in it? [Hawking's eyes widen in horror.] 'Cause if I'm the first, I want them to call it a "Fry Hole."
Later:
Fry: So what do you nerds want?
Nichols: It's about that rip in space-time that you saw.
Hawking: I call it a "Hawking Hole."
Fry: No fair! I saw it first!
Hawking: Who is The Journal Of Quantum Physics going to believe?
Interesting note: Apparently Stephen Hawking did provide his voice for that episode.
Re:Obligatory Futurma episode quotation (Score:2)
Re:Obligatory Futurma episode quotation (Score:2)
Sad note: Stephen Hawking hasn't provided HIS voice for anything in many decades.
Interesting note: Hawking was also featured in an episode of the Simpsons. Groening must be a fan. Who wouldn't be?
Council: Stephen Hawking!
Skinner: The world's smartest man!
Lisa: What are you doing here?
Hawking: I wanted to see your utopia, but now I see it is
more of a Fruitopia.
Skinner: [chuckles] I'm sure what
Aww crap! (Score:4, Funny)
Dupe!!!! (Score:2)
(This is the formal announcement promised last week.)
Great! Now they are programming dupes one week in advance...
Matter can escape!? (Score:3, Funny)
For the grammatically challenged (Score:5, Funny)
For those grammatically declined I'll explain it to you with an analogy. It's like when you were in high school and used mirrors to peek around the corner into the girl's locker room. The naked chick in the mirror is the APPARANT horizon. The naked chick that kicks the testes back inside your body shortly after DOES NOT EXIST.
Also, just for laughs (ok...hopefully for mod points too, I admit) Hawking is also a freaking awesome DJ and serial killer on the side. All my Shootin's be driveby's [berkeley.edu]
Wu's site [berkeley.edu] has other cool stuff to see too. (not a plug, just want to give credit to where the song is downloaded from)
Re:For the grammatically challenged (Score:2)
A DJ is the one that plays the music. The MC is the one that raps. Hawking is the MC.
Though, it would be interesting to modify his speech computer to control two turntables and a mixer.
I still believe his original theory is true!!! (Score:2, Funny)
and I still don't see any trace of it.
A good scientist knows when he is right (Score:2)
So... an event horizon never forms? (Score:2)
How can this be possible? I thought the whole point of black holes being 'black' was because they had a spherical boundary the crossing thereof would result in an escape velocity greater than C.
How can something like that only be apparent?
Flash! John Preskill killed in drive-by shooting. (Score:2)
Hawking admitted he was wrong! (Score:2)
Am I missing something? (Score:5, Insightful)
For over 200 years, scientists have puzzled over black holes, which form when stars burn all their fuel and collapse, creating a huge gravitational pull.
Now I'm no scientist, but 200 years of black holes seems like they're giving the issue more duration than history warrants. I thought the concept of a 'black hole' was a consequence of Einstein's relativity work (general, special I can never remember which is which... think it's general).
Am I wrong and just missed a whole bunch of science history?
Cheers!
SCB
Re:Am I missing something? (Score:2)
(It had been assumed, up until that point, that objects larger than the Limit could not exist, as the maths went crazy with numbers reaching infinity.)
So, unless Professor Hawking is older than he looks, I think we can safely assume that Black Hole theory is probably more like 60 years old.
Re:Am I missing something? (Score:5, Informative)
All that was needed to predict something odd would happen at this mass was the concept of escape velocity and that light had a velocity, both of which have been known for quite some time.
More info can be gotten at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole
Re:Am I missing something? (Score:5, Informative)
The notion of a body whose gravitational force is so strong that not even light can escape was put forward in the late 1700s, first by a British geologist and later by Pierre Laplace. The solution of General Relativity that would come to be recognized as a Black Hole was put forward by Karl Schwarzschild in 1915, only a short time after Einstein had presented his theory of General Relativity. Schwarzschild developed his solution while serving with the German army, on the Russian front. Chandrasekhar's work was initiated in the 1920s. The idea of "Frozen Stars" remained known to physicists, but wasn't the focus of as much attention as it is nowadays. It wasn't until the late 60s and early 70s that they began to attract more attention, and around that time the phrase "Black Hole" appeared.
A great deal of Hawking's work has been devoted to Black Holes, and he is responsible for a number of significant developments in our understanding of them. In fact, "significant development" doesn't quite do it credit, as some of his ideas were so counter-intuitive (the notion of Black Holes radiating, for one!) as to be totally unexpected. But he definitely did not invent the concept of a Black Hole!
m5brane
Re:Am I missing something? (Score:4, Informative)
Once it was clear that light moves at a finite speed, an English geologist, John Michell [wikipedia.org] realized that one could imagine an object with a gravitational escape velocity greater than c. Such an object would appear black. Of course, the term "black hole" didn't appear until much later.
Re:Am I missing something? (Score:3, Informative)
Not entirely unanticipated? (Score:5, Interesting)
What Hawking seems to be saying to me is that since the matter never enters the hole from the perspective of an observer outside the hole, the information is never lost. Does this make sense?
My take (Score:3, Insightful)
I hold that quantum theory is entirely a guess based on possibilities because we currently cannot (and perhaps never can) get true facts on the matter so that real analysis cannot be done. I don't know if anyone has any objections to this but I'm not sure if people realize it.
Take any level of physics, and only allow yourself to view it from a level above. You can come up with some good guesses as to how things will work which might have a very high degree of accuracy even 100%, but you are really just guessing. A simple example is that modern theory states that any two solid objects can pass through each other without interfering with each other at all-- it's just extremely improbable.
As a parallel: If you look at any scene in a 2 dimensional perspective you'll see objects passing through each other all the time (behind and in front although to 2d it's the same space). Now if the universe was 2d we could say that everything exists on the same 2d plane and any objects passing through each other is known to be impossible, but we know there's a 3rd dimension so to us it's entirely possible, even though everything in that universe is on the same plane. Well everything in this universe is in the same space, that is, they are all on the same 4th, 5th, 6th etc dimensional coordinates-- but that can just as easily change.
A 1 dimensional basic has 2 points connected by one line.
A 2 dimensional basic has 3 points, connected by three lines, encompassing one face.
A 3 dimensional basic has 4 points, connected by six lines, encompassing four faces, containing one space.
Guesses? A 4 dimensional basic has (5?) points, connected by (10?) lines, encompassing (5?) faces, containing (3?) spaces, bounding 1 thingy?
I know I'm not the only person who has tried to mentally vision higher order shapes!
Synopsis explained (Score:5, Informative)
The Euclidean path integral over all topologically trivial metrics can be done by time slicing and so is unitary when analytically continued to the Lorentzian. On the other hand, the path integral over all topologically non-trivial metrics is asymptotically independent of the initial state. Thus the total path integral is unitary and information is not lost in the formation and evaporation of black holes. The way the information gets out seems to be that a true event horizon never forms, just an apparent horizon.
The Euclidean path integral is the latest trick in quantum gravity.
The original problem with quantum gravity was that as you "quantitized" space into discrete units, explaining gravity in terms of particles like 'gravitons' and trying to do the math was possible for simplistic interactions like tree diagrams where time generally flowed one way - but extremely hairy and full of infinities if you started looking at loop diagrams where time can flow both ways.
So people like Roger Penrose came at it from a different direction, starting off with definining space-time in a quantitized manner (spin networks, quantum foam, whatever you want to call it) which had the side effect that complex examples of spin networks acted a lot like 3-dimensional Euclidean space.
Once people started talking about space-time like this, math started showing up that helped describe events and the progression of events in this space-time, including the Euclidean path integral which attempts to measure the end result of an interaction of particles in this type of space-time.
(Good link talking about path integrals and how they were a problem with quantum definition of gravity: http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/gr/public/qg_qc.h
Anyways, it sounds like he's saying: All this new math is great and if the world were a simple place, yeah, black holes would probably have an event horizon and the math to prove it is simple.
But the world is more complex than you think and doing the math for "the real world" shows that the closer you get to the end result, the less and less predictable the end result will be, even though overall it looks like it has a defined end result (i.e. it looks like it _should_ have an event horizon). In reality it's constantly shifting around - and likely this amount of shifting around is representative of the original information/particle system that went into its formation but you won't be able to trace it backwards and extract what the original information was.
This will probably tie into time dialation which will make it be: We never get to the end result event horizon that 'should' be there and in the process of never getting there, the black hole will have a nice jiggly event horizon as a result of all that information - but so jiggly we can't tell what went in to it, all we can do is measure the jiggliness.
What he hasn't explained is how he knows this and the math behind it.
Crap I'm bored.
Re:Cricket vs Baseball (Score:2)
Re:Cricket vs Baseball (Score:3, Funny)
Riiight... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Baloney! (Score:2)
Re:Baloney! (Score:2)
A theory in theoretical physics being taken seriously for its own sake? Baloney, alright! I for one won't be taking all this talk about black holes seriously until I see this Hawking chap dropping something off the leaning tower of pisa or getting hit in the head by an apple.
Re:Baloney! (Score:4, Funny)
Amen Brother! It's all a con game. Hawking and the rest of his Star Strek and time travel fanatics have been bulshitting the world with their time warps and wormholes for a long time. I wonder when someone is going to expose those con artists for good.
Re:Baloney! (Score:5, Interesting)
Let me tell you about how theoretical physics really works. Quantum THEORY is just that, a theory. But it has been tested to unbelievable precision. Using the theory of quantum electrodynamics, one can calculate constants of nature from first principles to better than 12 decimal places. These theories are "right," even though there might be some improvement or refinement that comes along later.
That's the end of my general rant. Now to address specific things you said that were, quite ironically, complete baloney. You say general relativity (GR) hasn't been tested. Einstein's first prediction using GR concerned the deflection of light around the sun during an eclipse. His prediction was different from what others were saying, and when the eclipse of 1919 finally came, Einstein was vindicated. GR passes major experimental test #1.
Do you have GPS in your car? If you do, you may be surprised to know that those things rely on the mathematics of GR. Without taking into account some of the terms that pop out of the equations of GR, your GPS would never be able to locate you. But it can, and hence GR passes experimental test #2 with flying colors.
Finally, I point you to the Nobel Prize's page on Russell Hulse and Joseph Taylor [nobel.se]. They found experimental proof that two stars orbiting each other were decaying at a rate exactly in accordance to what had been predicted years before. This is a very stringent test of the validity of GR -- the stars were orbiting each other near the "strong field" where gravitational effects are really strong, and hence where any deviation from the behavior predicted by the theory should be obvious -- and, once again, GR passed the test like an Asian kid taking math.
A certain amount of skepticism is always healthy, of course. Do I think there will be eventual refinements to GR? Of course, probably in the form of superstring theory [superstringtheory.com]. But before you go around proclaiming that it's all baloney, you better figure out what you're talking about.
I have a theory about this one ..! (Score:3, Insightful)
A theory is just a 'guess'. A very educated guess that has yet to be proved wrong. For it to be scientific I believe it must be provably falsifiable.
This kind of stems from my general belief that current theories work well and are mutually consistent (in the standard models and moreso) but are n
Re:Domestic violence is so sad (Score:2)
Re:Fails to give wheelchair ride? (Score:5, Interesting)
I personally have a handicap, and to be honest, I appreciate when people make jokes about it... I don't consider them cruel or offcolor, (except in the rare cases they are delivered with the intent of being cruel) to me its an acknowledgement of me as a person that someone can still treat as an equal. I doubt that there are many people who don't hold Hawking in extremely high esteem, and I in no way believe comments made by people who respect him in refference to his handicap would offend him, rather the people who try to ignore the obvious.
Re:Fails to give wheelchair ride? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Fails to give wheelchair ride? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Fails to give wheelchair ride? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Fails to give wheelchair ride? (Score:2)
Welcome to a brave new world where the gimp is called "physically challenged", the blind "visually deficient", the dumb "mentally differently abled" and where any joke who may offend anybody about anything is forbidden by the politica
Re:Fails to give wheelchair ride? (Score:2)
Hmm..
I can't decide whether to nod my head approvingly or just arrive at the conclusion that some people need thicker skins.
I'm leaning towards "The words only hurt if you let them" right now. The net-effect of Political Correctness would appear to be over-sensitivity.
Re:Fails to give wheelchair ride? (Score:2)
Re:He just doesn't get it (Score:3, Insightful)
And as far as the classic attack on the "certainty" of the theory of evolution: science tries to compress the Universe into something we can understand, and evolution (with its problems) is the best it has gotten. Science, by definition, is classifying the physical world by human means, and trying to get something out of it. Religion is classify
god and science reconcile perfectly. (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:So what's the status of his bet with Kip Thorne (Score:3, Funny)