Mars Rovers Alive Until 2005? 269
maggeth writes "The BBC is reporting that negotiations are under way to extending funding for the Mars rovers beyond this September. Originally designed to work for 90 Martian days, they now predict they may last well beyond the 250 Martian days they had announced previously." hoferbr writes "A new analysis by Phil Berardelli at the United Press International quotes Steve Squyres, chief scientist for the Mars rover mission, in which he says that the Mars rovers '... could go into 2005'. Spirit and Opportunity will complete six months on the Martian surface on July."
Great News (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Great News (Score:2, Insightful)
Look at it from the other bean counter's view. (Score:5, Insightful)
Also, since we know the rover design appears robust and successful, it could potentially be reused for another mission without designing a new rover. Let's send one to somewhere like Europa. That'd probably require a larger solar panel or some other power source but the rest of the design could be kept the same, saving the R&D budget.
If we're actually going to do a manned mission to mars, it's also a good idea to test our electronics and mechanical engineering for the environment BEFORE the people get there and depend on it to breathe, so better we learn how to build reliably for mars now.
Re:Look at it from the other bean counter's view. (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Great News (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Great News? - We'got bigger plans! (Score:3, Insightful)
Now for the budget reason you commented on. Do you think for a minute that tax rebates of $500 to $1000 for each tax payer did not contribute heavily to the increased budget deficit? What do you get for $10 billion or more in interest over four years?
Do you wonder why you pulled out just one line of a satire to comment on?
Martian days / Earth days (Score:5, Informative)
Missing 4 minutes? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Missing 4 minutes? (Score:2)
A year ~ 364.24 days. So it'd be more like 1 1/2 hours a month or 3 minutes a day.
Re:Missing 4 minutes? (Score:3, Informative)
The Earth sidereal day is 23:56:04.
A Martian sol is a Martian solar day.
Where those four minutes went... (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Where those four minutes went... (Score:5, Informative)
The difference is that the earth is moving around the sun (the reference point for the solar day), which effectively subtracts a solar day per year.
Re:Missing 4 minutes? (Score:3, Insightful)
Another way of saying it is that every 24 hours (more or less) the sun is at the same place in the sky, while every 23:56, the stars are in the same place in the sky.
Re:Missing 4 minutes? (Score:3, Informative)
The same thing happens on Mars, but because it's year is about twice as long, the effect is about two minutes a day. If you measure time relative to the position of the Sun, then
Re:Missing 4 minutes? (Score:3, Informative)
A leap year is because a revolution takes about 365.25 days. That makes a calendar with an integer number of days per year slip by about a day every four years, hence leap years. This is a separate effect.
Damn, I wanted a bout... (Score:5, Funny)
I hope they do. Might as well go out with a bang after such success. Might be a way to get funding too.
Re:Damn, I wanted a bout... (Score:2, Funny)
If they had a wisk broom... (Score:4, Funny)
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:2)
One thing I haven't heard mentioned, perhaps because it wouldn't work, is coating the panels with Teflon. Is there some reason you can't put Teflon on solar cells, or is this something they already do? Just seems like a si
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:2, Redundant)
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:2, Interesting)
I would think that the next rover type deployment would make better use of the landing pad. I'd also like to see missions to Mars to potentially recycle machinery there.
Imagine a space tow-truck that can go and 'jump' previously expired machines?
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:5, Informative)
But basically, if you whisk off the solar cell panels with a broom, you have to worry about static electricity buildup. It's just possible that by wiping the solar panel, you'll build up a static charge and attract even more dust.
Of course this possiblity suggests another possability - some sort of static device to repel the dust, so you need no moving parts, beyond deployment.
Or you just estimate the dust accumulation rate, the solar panel degradation due to that, and the design lifetime of the mission. Then make the panels sufficiently oversize to accomodate, and live with it. Don't forget that one rover already has a bum wheel, so other things are showing wear and tear besides the panels.
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:3, Informative)
"A fall of moondust" is the story you're thinking of.
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:3, Informative)
I asked: If the rate limiting factor is the dust build up on the shields, why not have windshield wipers?
The answer: They've tried just about all of those sorts of things. Or at least thought about them. But suppose you have a wiper mounted on a mechanical arm. So now your solar plates will be always dust free, because the wiper brushes them off. But eventua
Forget the broom, what about RTGs? (Score:3, Interesting)
Even if the mechanical elements of the rovers were to break or become unusable and they couldn't drive around or dig, it would still be very valuable to have functioning cameras and other sensors on Mars for some time to come.
It just seems odd to spend so much money and take so many chances flying something to Mars to not do everything possible to ensure that the device worked for a long, long time.
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:5, Informative)
If we can find a thin polymer that can transmit more of the light energy and not age/yellow so fast in higher UV environments we might be able to simply "roll the solar panels clean" by roling up the thin film for the width of the panel. have enough film on the roll to be rolled up 3 times and you just extended the life of the solar panels by 3!
this is the same technology that cleans the lens on the nascar cameras and is used on motocross helmet's and goggles.. (except the helmet version is a tear-away.)
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:2)
NASA report on dust accumulation (link) (Score:5, Informative)
PDF file here [nasa.gov]
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:2)
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:5, Informative)
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:3, Interesting)
Fine dust is difficult to get rid of with normal means like mechanical removal; you have to suspend the dust in a solvent (like atmosphere in the case of a blower) and then shunt it away, right?
So, yes, a blower on an arm might be a good idea. I was concerned that the blower itself might clog, or it wouldn't function properly. Funny, NASA is suppose
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:If they had a wisk broom... (Score:2, Insightful)
Some Solid Engineering (Score:4, Insightful)
Unmanned robotic missions are great for doing science work, and they should definately continue without scaling back funds. However, it is equally important to continue working on human space flight simply to prove that we can do it and to prepare for the time when a human colony on the moon or mars is paved by the groundwork of unmanned missions.
That's cool... (Score:5, Informative)
I know that right now one of Spirits wheel motors was starting to act up a bit.
As Martian "Winter" approaches, it'll be interesting to see what really cold weather does to the rovers (other than breaking them).
However, with that all said, I think we should be vigorously working on putting a colony on the Moon.
Mars, not the Moon (Score:3, Informative)
However, with that all said, I think we should be vigorously working on putting a colony on the Moon.
Not to be a knowitall but it's actually going to be a lot easier to develop a colony on Mars than on the Moon.
- Mars has vast, known supplies of water on the poles and there's good evidence that it can be found in the ground too.
- The Moon has temperatures both a lot higher and a lot lower than Mars. That makes it harder for equipment to work and us to live.
- The Martian day is tailor made for Humans,
Apparently (Score:5, Funny)
Impressive... (Score:4, Insightful)
This is the first of many such outstanding successes, I hope
-Erwos
All that extra time... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:All that extra time... (Score:2)
Now, THAT is funny.
Scotty Factor (Score:5, Funny)
LaForge: "Yeah, well I told the captain I'd have this analysis done in an hour."
Scott: "How long would it really take?"
LaForge: "An hour!"
Scott: "Oh, you didn't tell him how long it would *really* take, did you?"
LaForge: "Well of course I did."
Scott: "Oh, laddie, you've got a lot to learn if you want people to think of you as a miracle worker!"
-- "Relics [36el.com]", Stardate 46125.3
Re:Scotty Factor (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Scotty Factor (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Scotty Factor (Score:2)
And that dialog is one of my favorite "Scotty-ism's". My next favorite is the one in the movies (I forget which one) where Scotty is walking through the ship muttering something like "I know this ship like the back of my hand", and then he walks into a head-knocker and knocks himself out.
A joke, I know (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm sure NASA figured that, to a high degree of certianty, the rovers could pull 90 days no problem. So you report that as the expected life. If they last longer, great, but if they don't no one is going to bitch. Given the big unknowns of a mission like this, you want your estimate to be nice and conservative.
Also, you want to priortise your research. If you put a 90 day cap, you make sure to priortise the most important stuff to happen in that window. Then you can move on to other stuff, even if that's not the most efficient way of doing it. Even if you have to sacrafice some efficency, yuo don't want to do low priority stuff first because that's more efficient, only to find that your hardware broke so you never get to do the high priority stuff.
But have they found any Illudium Phosdex yet? (Score:2)
Re:But have they found any Illudium Phosdex yet? (Score:2)
Short Circuit (Score:2, Funny)
I bet they'll find some reason to stop support... (Score:5, Funny)
Let's hope the funding is provided. (Score:5, Insightful)
<semi-sarcasm>Anyway, most of our politicking seems to be based on "not telegraphing weakness"... So, don't cut short the mission, or else the terrorists win.</semi-sarcasm>
Why do people think NASA programs cost billions? (Score:4, Informative)
Having spent $X billion so far,...
The total cost of the Mars rovers (combined) was $820 million, including operations for the first 90 days. The extended mission - another 150 days - was budgeted at $15 million.
Re:Why do people think NASA programs cost billions (Score:4, Funny)
heh... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:heh... (Score:2, Informative)
NASA: Good science, bad budget (Score:4, Interesting)
The real headline here is "NASA considers turning off working rovers because they project budget was exeeded."
Re:NASA: Good science, bad budget (Score:2, Insightful)
They of course would like to dig holes with Rover forever and maybe find something unexpected : that would be nice, but maybe it would be nicer to divert resource from a project that is
why does mars rover do it? (Score:5, Funny)
Devil's advocate (Score:2)
Not to be too trollish, but if you are building a bridge to hold 10 tons and it ends up holding 100 tons, you are wasting resources.
Re:Devil's advocate (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Devil's advocate (Score:4, Insightful)
In addition, like most engineering projects, you have *minimum* requirements, and that is what you build for. A bridge in the US by code MUST be designed to hold 6 times (iirc) the maximum weight it is designed to carry- in the case of a bridge, this would mean 6 tractor trailers filled to the brim w/ heavy cargo stacked six high. In Nasa's case, I am sure all the components have a mean time before failure calculated, and then probabilities are calculated as to how long it will last. So lets say they built the thing and took on a 10% chance of failure before the mission's intended end ( which I believe was 90 days). So now they are seeing that the components are more rugged than they estimated for, and will last longer. I dont see this as bad.
Im sure this is not entirely by chance- I am sure the Nasa leaders understand that headlines like "Mars rovers may last over a year past their 3 month intended life" go over much better than "Mars rovers fall short of intended year mission" regardless of the actual length or ambitiousness of the mission.
I really hope you are not in the bridge building business...
Re:Devil's advocate (Score:5, Funny)
As if your mama reads those signs before she crosses.
Re:Devil's advocate (Score:4, Insightful)
The reliability of a complex system made of thousands of parts depends on statistics, whereas the reliability of a bridge depends on much simpler stress calculations.
If you design a complex system such that there is very little chance that any one of its components will fail within 90 days, then each component must be individually designed to last much longer than 90 days. The center of each component's reliability bell curve must be well beyond 90 days so that the product of the tails at the 90 day mark is acceptably low. The system as a whole will therefore probably last much longer than 90 days. If it does, that's not necessarily a sign of overdesign.
Re:Devil's advocate (Score:3, Informative)
That's easy enough to do when you're doing something that's been done thousands of times before. Very difficult when breaking new ground (so to speak). And, to stick with your bridge theme, its the reason that the Brooklyn bridge is still standing when almost none of its contemporaries are. The designer realized that he was going beyond the bounds of his experience and the
What happens.... (Score:3, Funny)
If only...
Re:What happens.... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:What happens.... (Score:2)
Marsnet (Score:2)
Damocles' sword. (Score:4, Informative)
Until a storm comes.
Martian dust storms come with wind at 200km/h or faster, carrying sand and smaller rocks, picking anything that isn't attached to the ground and carrying it for hours. One storm, and the rover is past, pieces of it scattered over several thousands of kilometers. And a storm will come sooner or later.
That's why there was a design of "tumbleweed" style rovers: they never deflate the airbags and let the storm carry them, letting them travel for half the planet in random direction, gathering data, until the storm weakens and leaves the "tumbleweed" in place until the next storm comes.
Current design... may live until 2005 or longer... if the storm doesn't come.
Re:Damocles' sword. (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Damocles' sword. (Score:5, Interesting)
Hmmm.. (Score:2)
we should take these rovers to (Score:2)
Is anyone else BOTHERED by this? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Is anyone else BOTHERED by this? (Score:4, Informative)
Guaranteed funding... (Score:3, Funny)
All NASA needs to do is find some evidence of materials that could be used in the manufacture of weapons of mass destruction and we'll have Rovers all over the red planet.
Of course the new Rovers will be contracted out to the biggest campaign contributors and NASA will quickly be integrated into the Department of Homeland Security and tasked with finding fossil fuels throughout our solar system...
ANWR, hell! We got Jupiter!
typical (Score:3, Insightful)
my hopes for Titan (Score:2)
And motivates NASA to send rovers there, and elsewhere!
Many space probes (Score:3, Interesting)
- The 2 rovers and numerous orbiters @ Mars
- Cassini/Huygens @ Saturn
- Both Voyager missions at the edge of the solar system
- Rosetta
etc.pp.!
Re:wow (Score:3, Informative)
Re:wow (Score:2)
In my experience, it's all about quality parts. Buy a cheap Quantum drive, and you might not get much more than the promised 3000 hours. Buy a quality Western Digital, and the thing will run forever. I'm *still* using a 300 meg WD drive from an old 486! It's inside my P120 that runs FreeBSD, which uses a 1.6 gig WD drive. That puts the 300 meg one at ~12 years old, and the 1.6 gig one at ~9 years old. B
Re:wow (Score:5, Insightful)
High chance, then, that when you finally do turn it off, they won't come back up. I get a lot of clients that say their ancient servers worked great for a decade and then after a power outage *boom* nothing. Make a backup while it's still running
Re:wow (Score:4, Interesting)
What happens is that the heads collect a lot of gunk that's normally scrapped off when the heads park. If they don't park enough, they can end up "sticking" to the parking spot. Oddly enough, I haven't run into that problem yet. The machine has been turned off a few times over the years (primarily power failures before I got a UPS) and I've never run into this problem. Gotta love quality parts!
Re:wow (Score:4, Insightful)
Think about it: when NASA says they expect a rover to last for (say) 90 days, they don't know that for sure. They can make an educated guess, but it's based on a whole bunch of uncertainties: the chance a major component will fail, the weather on Mars, the specific nature of the mission once they see what's around, you name it. So, really, when they say it will last for 90 days, they mean there is a 99% chance it will last at least 90 days ... but that also means there is a 99.9% chance it will last 60 days, and a 50% chance it will last at least 200 days.
I'm making those numbers up, of course, but that's the basic process. In statistical terms, the lifetime of the rover is a random variable whose distribution NASA estimates before launch. Because mission failure is such a disaster (you can't repair the rover!), NASA has to define mission success as something they have a good chance (say, 99% or better) of achieving. That means that the stated duration of the mission is the 1% quantile of the lifetime distribution of the rover (still with me?). That's a pretty small quantile -- by definition, there's a 99% chance the rover will last longer than that, and a very good chance it will last much longer.
So, we shouldn't be surprised the rovers have lasted as well as they have, and we shouldn't accuse NASA of being overly conservative. They're being exactly as conservative as they need to be to have a good chance of mission success.
Re:wow (Score:4, Insightful)
Kodos to the designers !
Ditto on that. I've long complained that they didn't use an RTG or SRG on the craft. It seems that the engineers did such a good job that it was unnecessary.
I *still* think that probes should use RTGs, though, so that we can get the best bang for our buck.
Re:wow (Score:3, Insightful)
Screw that. I'm keeping the RTGs to myself. These guys don't realize that ENERGY is what keeps you ALIVE in space. (Technically here on Earth as well. We just happen to have taps on a nice Fusion generator sitting next door.) I'd send them up with a few cell phone batteries and see how long they survive on breathing lithium after they're no longer able to crack water or CO2.
Re:wow (Score:3)
Re:wow (Score:5, Funny)
Kang to everyone else !
Except th the up/downrisks are unequal (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:wow (Score:5, Insightful)
Then, when it comes time for NASA to apply for a budget to run the rovers, the agency gives a conservative estimate on the rovers' lifespan. It gives an estimate they are confident they can deliver on.
This accomplishes two things: First, it keeps the budget request relatively low, which makes it more likely that the budget request will be approved. Since there's no mission at all without the budget approval, it makes sense to give a conservative cost estimate and a low budget number.
Second, it makes it easy for NASA to deliver on what it promises. If NASA announced that the rovers could last as long as six months or more, and one of them broke early on, NASA would get no credit for making it as far as it did. Rather, you and thousands of other asshats like you--including several asshats who have some direct authority over NASA's budget--would excoriate the agency for falling short of its goals.
Better to engineer the best rover you can with the resources you have, and give a conservative estimate of the mission's lifespan. If it exceeds that estimate, bonus! NASA goes back to the budget authorities with a clear win under their belt, another project delivered as promised, and some solid results to show that an addtional budget allocation is justified to continue the mission past the lower time limit and towards the upper end of the lifespan estimate.
What's more, by doing the budget approvals in stages like this, it gives you and I (and the budget authorities, of course) an opportunity to judge the value of the first 90 days before committing 250 days' worth of budget to the mission.
And the best you can come up with is "those NASA assholes must have been padding their engineering estimates! Unacceptable!"
Another thing: You don't win any credits by quoting "scotty" in "tng". Consider this: NASA is a government agency. It has to deal with politics, bureaucracy, and the human error that attends on every complex undertaking since the dawn of time. You yourself can't spell, punctuate or use basic grammar with any consistency. Yet you presume to criticize the methods NASA must use to achieve great feats of engineering and exploration. What is wrong with you?
Re:NASCAR (Score:4, Funny)
Re:NASCAR (Score:4, Informative)
In the end, all of the solutions weighed more than just making the photocells 50% bigger to allow for dust build-up, so they did that. They were very tight on launch space and weight.
Re:NASCAR (Score:3, Insightful)
You are too late. You have obviously forgotten about the little pieces of Beagle which are randomly strewn about the Martian surface.
Re:Naming Convention (Score:2)
Re:Naming Convention (Score:2)
Re:Naming Convention (Score:2)
(It's a joke!)
Re:Naming Convention (Score:2)
Tennessee Williams [wikipedia.org]
shuttles still inhaling money (Score:2)
besides if they abandoned the shuttles tomorrow, it would take a (to me) staggering amount of money just to mothball the fleet. i guess it's not like taking your old car and leaving it in a shady neighborhood hoping the situation will resolve itself.
Re:I think a lot of this is just a PR tactic for N (Score:2, Informative)
It happened: Voyager (Score:3, Interesting)
And so design of the probes and trajectories were done for the full "Grand Tour", but the engineers only published trajectories for the abbreviated mission. Once they got past Saturn (already on the trajectory they needed for the rest of the tour) they started talking about how they just happened to be on course and suddenly the money appeared.