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Science

The Millennia After Tomorrow? 68

Posted by timothy from the stay-tuned-for-variable-predictions dept.
frankthechicken writes "Analysis of a three-kilometer-long ice core drilled from the Antarctic, has revealed our planet has had eight ice ages during that period, punctuated by rather brief warm spells - one of which we enjoy today. And fortunately, the end of the world is not the day after tomorrow, instead it may be expected on Sunday, 17000."
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The Millennia After Tomorrow? More

The Millennia After Tomorrow?

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  • We need to get a chart... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by mcnut ( 712202 ) on Wednesday June 09, 2004 @10:08PM (#9383588) Homepage
    that logs when the world should end by each means, list them chronologically.. like: y2k bug: 2000 Earth losing its magnetic field and possibly letting radiation in: 3000? Asteroid: Ice Age:17000 Loss of a Sun: any others?

    • Here's 20 more (Score:5, Funny)

      by MachDelta ( 704883 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @02:55AM (#9384733)
      You forgot:

      Nuclear war/winter
      Global warming catastrophy
      AI conquest (ala Matrix or System Shock. Mmm.. SHODAN...)
      Alien invasion
      Religious Armageddon
      The return of disco
      Freak biological accident (eg: virus)
      Grey goo/nanotech-style disaster
      Mass civil/govt/corporate war (ala Titor)
      Universe collapsing
      Death of Windows/Microsoft
      Intergalactic phenomenon (eg: black hole, solar colision, etc)
      Any of us getting a date with a supermodel
      Earth's core stopping
      Global scale natural-disasters (think Noah's ark)
      Sun exploding or expanding
      RIAA stops suing people
      Chemical accident/atmosphereic poisioning
      Bush says something intelligent
      Linux finally having it's "year of the desktop"


      I think that about covers it.
      • The world isn't going to end. Plain simple. Why? Because I've got a gf now. If *that* didn't cause the end of the world, nothing will.

      • 1 more (Score:2, Funny)

        by socsuj ( 222554 )
        We barely avoided it last year: Cubs-Red Sox World Series

      • The return of disco

        Last time I checked, disco was already back, at least in the forms called "house" and "eurobeat". Go play some Dance Dance Revolution if you don't believe me.

    • Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • You forgot the comming of Christ by the Jehovah's Witnesses- 1914, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1987, 2000 (has there been a new prediction yet? I've been preoccupied with the econonmy for the last few years and haven't been reading Watchtower).
    • 2004-06-03 17:00:29 Solar wind to shield Earth during pole flip [newscientist.com] (science,science) (rejected)

  • During WHAT period? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by samdu ( 114873 ) <samduNO@SPAMronintech.com> on Wednesday June 09, 2004 @10:12PM (#9383605) Homepage
    Analysis of a three-kilometer-long ice core drilled from the Antarctic, has revealed our planet has had eight ice ages during that period,


    Sorry, not being familiar with the geological ebbs and flows of the polar ice caps, might someone explain how long in time 3 Kilometers worth of ice is?


    And, on a side note, might this information also lend credence to the idea that the current warming trend is a natural phenomena? One that we couldn't stop if we tried and one that we may have insignifanctly affected if at all? Just curious.

    • Re:During WHAT period? (Score:5, Informative)

      by Too Much Noise ( 755847 ) on Wednesday June 09, 2004 @10:13PM (#9383611) Journal
      from the article:

      Measuring 3190 metres long and calculated by isotope measurement to be 740,000 years-old at its farthest end, the core gives a compelling picture of the Earth's cycles of warmth and cold.
    • As pointed out, global warming may be natural and human activity little or nothing to do with overall global temperatures. Or humans may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The point is we don't know. A lot of global warming debate seems to be based on computer models that have problems. I seem to remember the 1970s had many books and news articles about the new ice age right around the corner. So it might be wise to continue various climate research until we have a better understanding about

      • Re:Natural causes for global warming (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Claire-plus-plus ( 786407 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @05:34AM (#9385247) Journal
        If we continue climate research and do nothing it will be too late to do anything before we really know for sure if we really are contributing to global warming with pollution. However, if we assume that warming is a fact and that it is our fault we lose little and may just save the world. The cost of doing nothing is too high to tolerate.

        Incidently figures collected state that the temperature was rising steadily for 1000s of years but started rising much faster once the industrial revolution started.

        Most, if not all, Climatologists now believe the evidence of global warming through pollution and human activity has been proven beyond reasonable doubt.

        Actually I heard recently that the US Department of Defence now list global warming as a risk to US national security (ABC tv Australia, Landline).Landline global warming report [abc.net.au].

      • By definition [ozestuaries.org], global warming is the increase in global average temperature caused by human activity.

        The Green House effect, OTOH, is totally natural. In fact, without it, the Earth would be a dead frozen world.

  • So we should keep at heating up the atmosphere then. Just think of your children ... erm, children's children's ... whatever. Let's hope human race survives long enough to have to deal with the next Ice Age when/if it comes.

    • You wish! (Score:3, Informative)

      by perlchild ( 582235 )
      I've read somewhere, that there is a current of thought that the Ice Age was unleased by the global warming period, and that it's a sort of "correction" for global warming. Let me explain in more detail:

      Global warming causes less ice at the poles(not really anyone notices), that turns up as coastal water, that water absorbs more heat from the sun, and keeps it in water(away from land), this in turns makes the land colder and colder, until bam you have an ice age. Exactly how long it lasts is until the se

  • Tune in next year for the last 100m (Score:5, Insightful)

    by beeplet ( 735701 ) <beeplet@gmail.com> on Wednesday June 09, 2004 @10:25PM (#9383658) Journal
    It's interesting that the last 100m of ice should be so difficult. I wonder if there are any additional complications from waiting until November to finish the drilling... At that depth, they say the ice is just above the melting point from geothermal heat, so I'm assuming that it is somewhat plastic and under huge pressure from the 3km of ice above it. I wonder if they had to take precautions against pressure closing the hole before they finish drilling?

    Very impressive, anyway. I hope they manage to complete the ice core this time. It's amazing to think of how long that ice has been there, untouched.

  • Apocalypse news? Check Google. (Score:5, Funny)

    by Futurepower(R) ( 558542 ) on Wednesday June 09, 2004 @10:38PM (#9383733) Homepage

    I check Google News frequently, because if the world ended, how else would I know?

    I expect there would be a story something like, "The world has ended, if you are still working, you are out of touch."

    What is the proper way to behave when the world ends? Do you make backups and shut down your computer?

    Don't do anything radical, because it might be a mistake.


    Off topic: I put some links together of the 36 books and movies that say that the U.S. government has become corrupt: Unprecedented Corruption: A guide to conflict of interest in the U.S. government [futurepower.org].
  • nearest research outpost was 1000km away by tractor across the white wilderness. ...

    Measuring 3190 metres long


    kilometre .. metre .. I just don't understand!

    • Re:Can somebody provide a translation? (Score:2, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Here in the US they're usually called the "meter", and "kilometer". I think it makes more sense, but then again I'm British, not French: "er" is logical than "re" given my pronouciation of the terms.

      * 1 meter probably comes up to a little higher than your belly button from the foor.
      * A 2 meter tall person would be on the tall side, but not outlandishly tall.
      * 100 meters is approximately the length of an American football field (or exactly the length of a Canadian football field).
      * There are 1000 meters in

  • Sounds familiar (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Andy Smith ( 55346 ) on Wednesday June 09, 2004 @11:41PM (#9384008)
    Quote from Slashdot submission...
    Analysis of a three-kilometer-long ice core drilled from the Antarctic, has revealed our planet has had eight ice ages during that period, punctuated by rather brief warm spells - one of which we enjoy today.
    Quote from BBC story...
    Analysis of the ice proves our planet has had eight ice ages during that period, punctuated by rather brief warm spells - one of which we enjoy today.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3792209.stm [bbc.co.uk]

    Note that the Slashdot submission didn't reference the BBC story.

  • My lab collaborates with these guys... (Score:5, Informative)

    by Kulic ( 122255 ) on Wednesday June 09, 2004 @11:59PM (#9384080) Homepage
    Hmm... it's a surprise to see this on Slashdot. I suppose some explanation is in order.

    I'm part of an isotope science research group at my university (please, no pasting links - they're not that hard to find anyway). I'm just finishing my honours degree on new meteorite dating techniques, but other students/professors/staff do a lot of work on heavy metal contamination of the environment (mainly lead as an indicator of industrialisation and global dust levels, and indium and bismuth as volcanic indicators). We collaborate with a number of research groups around the world, including the one in Grenoble and others in Venice and Tasmania.

    The work we do mainly involves Thermal Ionisation Mass Spectrometry (TIMS - uses a solid sample), while other labs use TIMS as well as Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS - uses a liquid or gas source). We have and are analysing the Vostok, Dome C and Law Dome samples. One professor in my lab has used TIMS to show how the lead in the ice cores has risen dramatically in response to such events as the Roman Empire processing large ore bodies (to make weapons, shields etc - this was published in Nature ~1994) and also the start of the industrial revolution. Our general focus at the moment is completing a climatic record going back as far as we can. However, due to the extreme cleanliness of the ice cores, processing must be carried out in Class 10 clean rooms (initially at sub-zero temperatures to prevent the ice from melting) to prevent contamination. We routinely measure amounts of lead on the order of a few picograms (10^-12 grams) or less. It is rather slow going.

    To give an idea about the problems involved in drilling the ice cores, you have to realise that 3km underground there is a lot of pressure due to the weight of the ice sitting above. 3km is roughly Antarctic bedrock, which is a far down as we can drill. The further down you go, the denser the ice becomes and hence harder to drill. However, you can't just speed up the drill to get the ice faster because you will melt it. The last few hundred metres before bedrock will take a lot longer to drill than the ice above it.

    The initial decontamination procedure of the ice cores is somewhat lengthy and inconvenient. As we are looking to find heavy metals in the ice, we have to remove any contamination caused by the drill. So we use a plastic lathe (all of our lab equipment is teflon and is soaked in 10M HNO3 for about 3 months before use) to strip the outer layers of the ice core in succession (the core samples we receive range from ~0.3-1.5m in length). Keep in mind you are working at about -18 degress C here for about 6 hours at a time - not fun. Then we analyse small chunks of the inner core. The decontamination is normally done in Tasmania, and then we get samples shipped on dry ice to us and other labs around the world. There have been some rather tense moments as planes have been late and baggage delayed!! While I remember, a 30cm ice core might be worth around $30k (total cost of drilling / length of ice recovered).

    Um, I think that's most of what I can add without going into extremem technical detail, but I'll try to answer any questions anyone has.
    • To give an idea about the problems involved in drilling the ice cores, you have to realise that 3km underground there is a lot of pressure due to the weight of the ice sitting above. 3km is roughly Antarctic bedrock

      Any issues with the ice shifting and causing the shaft to no longer be aligned? I mean, if part of the hole is drilled one year and another part later it seems that this is a real possiblity.

      • Re:My lab collaborates with these guys... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Kulic ( 122255 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @12:56AM (#9384302) Homepage
        Not as far as I know. The ice is sitting on bedrock, and that's not going anywhere. I don't think that the hole moves significantly in the course of a year anyway.

        Even if it did move, as long as you have the correct depth you should still get the same general results. Although, we have seen some slight differences in heavy metal levels from site to site (there are things like mountains which obstruct air flow). This is one of the reasons that there are a number of sites being analysed - so that we can compare the results.

        You probably want to keep in mind that the ice sheet has been there for roughly a million years (maybe a bit less). Over the bedrock, the only significant event affecting the ice is the depositing of snow every year, which becomes compacted, becomes firn (really dense snow) and then ice. From year to year this is insignicant, but over hundreds of thousands of year you build up an ice sheet with a climatic record preserved in it.

        • Not as far as I know. The ice is sitting on bedrock, and that's not going anywhere. I don't think that the hole moves significantly in the course of a year anyway.

          That's not strictly true; the ice does move gradually from both internal deformation and movement over the bedrock. The trick is to find a place to drill where the movement is either very slow, or outwards in all directions. Towards the edges of the continent (think Beardmore glacier), your hole would shift appreciably day to day.

          Another prob

  • Which Sunday in 17000? (Score:3, Funny)

    by jfern ( 115937 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @12:23AM (#9384188)
    There are 52 Sundays in the year 17000, starting with January 5th, 17000. I demand to know which Sunday, and why it won't be some other day of the week.
  • All I care about is the next 50 years....

  • not enough information... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by orn ( 34773 ) on Thursday June 10, 2004 @01:48AM (#9384472)
    The article doesn't give enough information to entertain the statement "Next Ice Age 15000 years away", especially with the certainty that the statement implies.

    Perhaps they should have said "given no human intervention, and if past records are an indicator of future performance (generally a no-no, but what have we got instead?), then the next ice age probably won't happen for 15000 years." But that doesn't make for a very pithy headline.

    I think the research is fantastic. This kind of stuff gives us the baseline that we need in order to understand how we are affecting the world. But unfortunately carbon dating and other forms of isotope dating are generally not accurate enough to show us what's happening over the course of the last 50 years. Perhaps you could do a "count the rings" approach - looking for new ice accumulation each year and its eventual heavy freezing at -100 degrees... probably wouldn't work... but basically we don't know what we're doing to the atmosphere.

    You would need a record that shows the amazing increases in various atmospheric components that we're putting into it and no subsequent effects...

    Actually the most interesting bit of information seems either overlooked by the reporter or intentionally left oblique.

    There was a change in length and temperature of the cold and warm spells that the Earth underwent. Given the numbers the article suggests, that change was relatively coincident with the change in CO2 levels. Well, now we've put CO2 level back where they were before... so why don't they assume that temperatures (and lengths of time) will go back to how they were then? (big assumption, but no bigger than "you're safe for 15000 years."

    Rudy

  • Mammoth farts? (Score:2, Interesting)

    by jgardn ( 539054 )
    So what caused the ice ages and the warm periods? Mammoth farts?

    Before you think I am pulling this out of the blue, read this: http://articles.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1 5 90/is_8_58/ai_82554146

    I think this proves that the earth goes through cycles.

    I don't believe for a moment that me taking a bike to work rather than driving a car will have any predictable effect, or an effect in the right direction, whatever that is. I don't think we should be worrying about whether there is a superstorm that is
    • .... just left the rock you have been living under for the last, er, decades.

      Google (if you don't know what that means please let us know, we are all happy to help you out of the dark agaes) for "acid rain", "low athmosphere ozone" just for starters.

      Add make sure your bike is comfy, you don;t want to get back pain (if you are a fat bastard you should not be asking about the benefits of biking, if you are not, my sincerest apology for the insinuation).
    • Read your own link carefully. Mammoths did not have rumens, and I doubt there was as many of them as there are cows now.
  • cycles of cold/warm are plausible, but arent of any help to predict totally random events, such as when there's a gigantic volcanic eruption, when there's a big methane belch from the bottom of the ocean or when a non-periodic comet just happens to cross path with the Earth.
  • ... but what about "unnatural" or random ones? There are artificial and outside earth things that could do enough to start one. Industrial dust or the impact of one or even several meteors, or things like that could have as a global effect that lot less sunlight hits earth and the climate balance could be broken.

    I'm not sure if the global warm disrupting the sea currents and then starting an ice age could or not be possible, but that something happened in a ciclic for certain time way don't mean that alwa

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