Simulate "The Day After Tomorrow" On Your PC 285
kpearson writes "climateprediction.net, a distributed computing project to predict Earth's climate 50 years from now, has a new add-on project to study THC slowdown (how climate might change as CO2 changes in the event of a decrease in the strength of the thermohaline circulation). This kind of rapid, extreme climate change is shown in the movie The Day After Tomorrow, in which New York City is treated to a 10,000-year-long ski season. Anyone can download the project's client software and participate in the simulation. climateprediction.net was previously mentioned in the September 13, 2003 article
Distributed Computing and Climate Change." Clients are available for various varieties of Microsoft Windows, but none are listed for other OSes.
THC slowdown (Score:4, Funny)
Re:THC slowdown (Score:5, Funny)
Scary... (Score:2)
I for one ... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:THC slowdown (Score:3, Funny)
And remember, 420 is ten times better than the meaning of life
Re:THC slowdown (Score:5, Informative)
There are varieties of hash called pollen I believe, but they are "brand names" much like "northern lights" or "silver pearl" are to skunk herb.
Your dealer is either using the name in this way, or has bastardised polm. It seems to be a commonish error. But, now you know...
The reason why 100% female plants are preferred to males is that they are much stronger and more productive. The ladies give us concentrated trichomes containing high levels of THC/CBD, whereas the males contain little of the active ingredients and give us a headache and a weak buzz.
So, spread the word brother.! No more pollen. Polm!
THC Slowdown (Score:5, Funny)
In song... (Score:4, Funny)
Now my karma's toast, because I got high.
All my posts are zeroes, and I know why... hey, hey,
Because I got high, because I got high, because I got hiiiigh.
I you have to wonder that (Score:5, Insightful)
Personally, It's my opinion that the earth is a pretty robust system and our climate models will be rather wrong.
Simon.
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2, Funny)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:5, Insightful)
I for one welcome our new/old dinosaur overlords!
Joking aside, the argument that the earth has been experiencing major differences in temperatures in the past and that this is normal and all is very fascinating except for one small fact: We're humans. We don't like having volcanoes in our back yards, ferns all over our lawns, hurricanes ripping our houses to shreds and brontosaurs trampling our offspring. We're kinda picky that way.
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2)
I think the prime candidates for evolutionary leaps will be the species under great environmental or ecosystem pressure. They have the greatest opportunity for random beneficial traits to become dominant.
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2)
Moreover, I don't think global warming will reincarnate the Brontosaur, although I think that would be cool... but maybe that's the THC talking.
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:4, Interesting)
Why so narrow-minded? It impedes ALL industry and prosperity. No one targets the US specifically. Oh, I totally agree that the current set of narrow regulations are counter-productive (to put it mildly). One such example local to me is Swedish energy industry buying coal-generated electricity from Poland to make up for the lower emission standards imposed on the Swedish (much cleaner) power plants. That's why we need a level playing field and the EU-wide emission rights market is a step in the right direction (properly implemented, that is).
However, looking at eco-friendlyness in the industry as an inherently bad thing is also counter-productive. Instead, it should be seen as an opportunity to modernize the industry - using the technical advantage that the 3rd world countries do not have. Work smarter to keep ahead. Digging for coal and burning it is going to be cheaper in Poland, Belarus, Mexico, Nicarague or where ever anyway and the trick is to not compete with that. Compete with high-tech instead. They can't keep up with that. Look at the major oil companies, they are shifting from simply pumping oil to being diversified energy producers. They are going with the flow in ways that Joe Q. Public hasn't yet realized they even could. They've been taught, time and time again, that they have to be quick or be dead. The governments of the world have to realize that, too.
It's like when Star Wars broke the Soviet Union - for years the US military tried to out-perform the Red Army and Strategic Rocket Forces on their home turf and failing miserably. Not until they turned the tables on the Reds and went in a different direction where the Soviets couldn't follow did they win the Cold War. The basic economic realities of the brewing eco-war are the same.
The facts are that the amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere are way higher now than they were a hundred years ago. The atmosphere is also warming at a rate unheard of since we started measuring these things and at a rate not found in any ice samples from the last several hundred thousand years. Large chunks of very old ice is melting in Antarctica and there are island nations that will soon cease to exist due to rising ocean waters.
Can we afford to ignore the possibility of a causal link? I believe we can't.
I'm not saying we should go back to dwelling in caves in Eden, that's a pathetic strawman argument. I'm just saying that we should put some thought into fixing emissions in a smart way, a way that will keep our scientists at the forefront of innovation, that will keep our industries competitive and that will preserve our way of life and preferably enable more people to share it.
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2)
Source? Thanks
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:4, Insightful)
Which greenhouse gases increased, and by how much? Has the major greenhouse gas (it's not CO2) increased? Does CO2 affect temperature, or does temperature affect CO2 levels? (For example, warmth encourages fermentation in swamps rather than burial of carbon)
The atmosphere is also warming at a rate unheard of since we started measuring these things
That would be the warming during the past 100 years, the period when we've had thermometers. Look at that graph and how much warming happened before 1945, when we had little fossil fuels in use. After 1945...cooling for 30 years while we burned more fuels. How much has the rate of increase changed during warming periods?
and at a rate not found in any ice samples from the last several hundred thousand years.
Look again. Start around 15,000 years ago and see if there was a rapid change back then.
Large chunks of very old ice is melting in Antarctica
Check when that began melting, and compare the ages of ice. Melting is not new.
and there are island nations that will soon cease to exist due to rising ocean waters.
Those reports have been studied in several ways, look at them again. Also check their tectonic base, such as whether they're in the large area west of Australia which is sinking.
Can we afford to ignore the possibility of a causal link? I believe we can't.
Spend your money how you wish. Can you afford to ignore the possibility of a warmer Sun, secret misuse of alien technology, or a meteor destroying your ISP? Better prepare...better safe than sorry.
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2)
Right you are.
The saying has commonly been attributed to Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain), but it may have been originated by a collaborator of his on one of books, Charles Warner.
Either way... yes. Over a hundred years old.
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:5, Insightful)
Earth may have a self-regulating system we do not yet (fully) understand. When you say its a robust system, you are right. Our climate models may well be worth squat, right again.
Dinosaurs did quite well for quite a long time, until they could...
However, the issue is not whether human interventions can fully derail earth's climate or only tackle the parameters a bit.
The point is, that the changes in the weather we as a civilisation started will most certainly affect our way of life as we know it. Human is considered the most adaptable species, present in all kinds of environments. I cannot argue whether we are going to drive ourselves into extinction or not by what we did to the climate, but surely life (and survival) in either dry deserts, frozen glaciers or stormy swamps has little to do with the current trends in economy. There is a vast difference between a habitable and comfortable climate, you see...
Dont start the IPO on that dino-breeding company just yet
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:3, Interesting)
Systems do have negative feedback behavior, which create short term stability, but they also have positive feedback behavior which can create rapid shifts and oscillations. We should be aware of this and act accordingly. While
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2)
We haven't just been able to adapt physically, we've been able to adapt technologically as well.
I'm not saying millions won't die, I'm saying that if change is coming, it's coming, and we will survive as a species, and we will adapt.
Robust, with a large latency. (Score:3, Insightful)
You're right that the earths eco-system is very robust. It's survived meteor collisions, massive climate changes, etc. Human society isn't particularly robust though. While you may be fine with the eco-system taking a few thousand years to adjust to a new climate, most people aren't. I think mass famine because of crop failu
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:2)
There is another positive feedback:
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:I you have to wonder that (Score:3, Insightful)
Comment removed (Score:4, Funny)
Here's how the simulation works: (Score:5, Funny)
- running this software,
- thereby using more electricity,
- creating more greenhouse gases and the like,
- increasing global warming...
and therefore getting a very accurate answer much sooner.
THC Slowdown? (Score:4, Funny)
Concerning the movie "The Day after Tomorrow" (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Concerning the movie "The Day after Tomorrow" (Score:5, Insightful)
Bjorn Lomborg (Score:3, Informative)
Actually, it turns out many of his critics aren't very good scientists.
from http://www.reason.com/hitandrun/004625.shtml [reason.com]
Re:Bjorn Lomborg (Score:4, Informative)
Since I have not read the (now withdrawn) findings by the Committee, I choose not to base my judgements on their findings.
By the way - I wasn't even thinking of that Committee, but was thinking of a smallish 5 page (I think) dissection [math.ku.dk] (page 12 to 17 of that pdf) of a just a small part of his book - by Inge Henningsen, who is an associate professor at the Statistic Department [stat.ku.dk] of the Institute for Mathematical Sciences [math.ku.dk] at Copenhagen University [www.ku.dk].
She also notes in her piece, that he's not actually a statistician like they know them at her department, as he has a M.A in Political Science [ps.au.dk] from Århus Universitet [www.au.dk] and teaches "Methods" there as well. He is (as is noted) "an associate professor of statistics in the Department of Politital Science".
As to who has the better credentials when it comes to statistics - well, my oppinion is fairly obvious, but I've given you plenty of venues to explore yourself and leave you to draw your own conclusions.
Re:Concerning the movie "The Day after Tomorrow" (Score:2, Informative)
And what we learn from the movie is that this global warming you speak of causes a 10,000 year winter. Or, the warmer it gets, the more snow falls on New York
Re:Concerning the movie "The Day after Tomorrow" (Score:4, Informative)
The Abrupt Climate Change FAQ [ucsusa.org] from the Union of Concerned Scientists, has a lot to say on the subject and the movie:
The other interesting thing it mentions is that Abrupt Climage Change refers to changes that happen over years to decades as opposed to climate change that is happening now over decades and centuries. Make no mistake, we have changed our climate more in the last hundred years than in the previous thousand years.
Re:Concerning the movie "The Day after Tomorrow" (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Concerning the movie "The Day after Tomorrow" (Score:2)
One question... (Score:5, Insightful)
Interested in weather, love/hate to watch tornados and hurricanes.. trouble is the news makes it out like "The Perfect Storm" is about to happen
-B
The responses so far. (Score:2)
Re:The responses so far. (Score:2, Funny)
Simulating a fiction...? (Score:2, Informative)
Or is the association with the upcoming movie merely some editorial license on the part of the
Re:Simulating a fiction...? (Score:2)
Heh. Was setting up a new Linux recruit with Macromedia Flash and I guess the URL was still hanging around in my cut buffer.
The real link is at the Washington Post [washingtonpost.com]. (You may have to log in to see the story, but just use BugMeNot [bugmenot.com] to find a free login.
Shazbot! Preview [should have been] my friend!
GIGO? (Score:5, Insightful)
We can't predict the weather for the next week, but doing it for the next 50 years might work if we only can get a computer big enough?
Re:GIGO? (Score:3, Interesting)
For predicting the climate in 50 years it is not necessarry to known for each day if it rained in your back yard.
Jeroen
Foolishness (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Foolishness (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Foolishness (Score:5, Insightful)
A bit simplified, climate is average weather.
It's a bit like while it is impossible to predict which days will get rain in Bergen, Norway this november, it's pretty easy to predict the average temperature, the annual rainfall and how many days it'll rain.
Re:Foolishness (Score:2)
This is the idea - weather forecasts will never show skill out beyond 12 to 14 days because uncertainty in the exact state of the weather now will always propogate upwards until the errors in representing the state overwelm the forecast.
Climate forecast on the other had look at the mean state - how many rainy days do you expect in New york summers? This is a predictable quantity. Models
@home (Score:2)
So I pounced on her new exposure to protein folding, and we signed up for folding@home
Strange (Score:2, Interesting)
If I was to make a program that basically asks of people to give me something for free (in this case, CPU time, and a little aggravation to install the client), I'd make the Linux/*BSD client a priority, since those OSes have been made almost entirely by people on their own time for free.
At least I'd know I'd be likely to find a sympathetic hear to whatever cause my client serves in that community.
Re:Strange (Score:2)
A OS X port and potentially a linux port are both immenent with the release
Re:Strange (Score:2)
Re:Strange (Score:2)
Re:Strange (Score:2)
There is a port in the process for both OS X and linux but this wont be released until the project moves over to the BOINC platform. Which according the website will happen sometime in the next month or two.
Looks like it will be a bad film (Score:5, Informative)
How much of the public will be mislead into thinking thats how it really happens? I still cringe whenever Armageddon is on.
Re:Looks like it will be a bad film (Score:2, Informative)
Maybe that's the purpose of the movie?
The first couple of paragraphs in the following column are political commentary, so feel free to skip them and get straight to the scientific criticism of the movie.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28338-20 04May14?language=printer [washingtonpost.com]
Wine / CrossOver? (Score:4, Interesting)
CLOSE: WARNING: Unit 60 Not Opened
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It doesn't seem to continue further...
MODS: THIS IS _NOT_ OFF-TOPIC (Score:2)
Re:MODS: THIS IS _NOT_ OFF-TOPIC (Score:5, Informative)
Cheers
Dave Frame
climateprediction.net coordinator
Re:MODS: THIS IS _NOT_ OFF-TOPIC (Score:2)
Using Crossover Office 2.1 for this.
On global warming. (Score:5, Insightful)
here 4 1/2 billion years. We've been here, what, a 100,000 years, maybe
200,000. And we've only been engaged in heavy industry a little over 200
years. 200 years versus 4 1/2 billion. And we have the conceit to think
that somehow we're a threat? The planet isn't going away. We are."
-George Carlin
Re:On global warming. (Score:4, Interesting)
Do disrespect to Mr. Carlin, but I don't want to go away. I realize the planet will be fine without us, but I also realize I don't want us to die out.
Re:On global warming. (Score:2, Insightful)
"Simulate "The Day After Tomorrow" On Your PC" (Score:4, Funny)
Ski in NY (Score:5, Funny)
Not gonna work (Score:5, Insightful)
I did a climate modeling project for my dissertation at university. These guys have a good idea - throw massive computing power at it - but it's not that simple. Compared to SETI or protein folding, climate modeling is not as highly parallelisable. Plus what's holding back the state of the art right now is the quality of the algorithms we're using - they loose accuracy pretty fast as the result of feedback between multiple iterations of a process that introduces quantisation noise each time.
IMHO this project will produce the same quantisation noise-ruined results we have now, just more finely ovesampled
Still, they might get some useful insights into how to tackle the problems of parallel dynamic system simulation
Re:Not gonna work (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Not gonna work (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Funny but.. (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Funny but.. (Score:2)
What good are all the computers in the world... (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:What good are all the computers in the world... (Score:3, Insightful)
The same applies to all scientific projects, yet we somehow manage with proper use of approximations.
Of course The Day after tomorrow is wrong (Score:4, Interesting)
What about SimEarth? (Score:2, Funny)
A REALLY interesting distributed computing project (Score:2)
I think that a really interesting distributed computing project would be one that simulates the growth, spread, and interaction between memes.
;)
It would have to be MS-based, though, or possibly done w/ Java.
Who wrote the script? (Score:5, Informative)
linux client? (Score:2)
but..
still no linux client..
guess they just want the regular 'joe' home machines and not people with a lot of number crunching power?
*sigh*
Can't get it working (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Attempting to model the real world on this scal (Score:5, Insightful)
I admit I'm a bit clueless here, but AFAIK climate modelling deals with overall changes at a high level e.g. "It's going to be colder in the north atlantic by about 2 degrees on average in a few decades" and the like.
As opposed to weather prediction which says "It will rain in this spot on this day"
Just because we can't predict the 'noise' in the short term doesn't mean we can't determine overall changes long term.
Re:Attempting to model the real world on this scal (Score:2)
Re:Attempting to model the real world on this scal (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Attempting to model the real world on this scal (Score:2)
In that article they start giving information for 2030 to 2060 in 10 year increments. For a test of the system they should enter data upto 1960 and thier system should beable to give an accurate release of what is in existance today and for the past decade.
So far I have yet to hear of any system where this works, and they have not fudged with the system.
Re:Attempting to model the real world on this scal (Score:3, Insightful)
Take a look at one small section of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) [grida.no]. Note the uncertainties and many "improvements" since the previous report, the SAR upon which the Kyoto protocol is based. Browse the report further for more uncertainties and recent discoveries.
We simply don't know enough about climate yet. For example, water causes most of the planet's greenhouse effect. Increased temperature
Re:Attempting to model the planet trajectories (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Attempting to model the real world on this scal (Score:4, Informative)
wrong! (Score:3, Informative)
Where did you get all that from, tarot cards?
Re:wrong! (Score:3, Informative)
Freemars [freemars.org] - Gravitational interaction (tides on the Earth caused by the Moon) transfers kinetic energy from Earth to the Moon, slowing Earth's rotation and raising the Moon's orbit, currently at a rate of 3.8 centimeters per year.
another page [autodynamicsuk.org]
and another [astro.uu.nl]
and another [jimloy.com]
Re:wrong! (Score:2)
Windows to the Universe [ucar.edu]
or
PhysLink [physlink.com]
Re:Southern Africa in Peril. (Score:2, Informative)
Mod down, that's all made up (Score:2)
Who Cares? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Who Cares? (Score:2)
Re:Who Cares? (Score:2)
> compared to the current administration.
You mean like lobbing cruise missiles into Afghanistan or regime change in Yugoslavia?
I would love to see Democrats stop acting like Republicans with regard to foreign policy (at least). Then at least the candidates would at least be distinguishable.
Re:Amazing! (Score:2)
Re:simulation not required (Score:2)
If I were to participate in a forum in Spain, created and operated by Spaniards, in Spanish, and I posted in Spanish, I wouldn't criticize people who assumed I was in or from Spain, and if they had that misconception I'd come right out and tell them instead of insuating they were bunch of narrowminded jerks for being "spain-ce