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Science

Yellowstone Super-Eruption Threat Debunked 295

Posted by simoniker from the you-never-know dept.
GennyCream writes "The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples). I found an article on ATSNN.com (the Above Top Secret News Network) that cut the paranoia with the proverbial knife and went straight to the source. Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."
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Yellowstone Super-Eruption Threat Debunked More

Yellowstone Super-Eruption Threat Debunked

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  • It's Gonna Blow! (Score:5, Funny)

    by l810c ( 551591 ) * on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:46AM (#8529599)
    Have ya ever seen that commercial where the park ranger is pouring all the Metamucil down the Old Faithful? This could have serious adverse effects on the entire caldera. I mean, you can only pinch the cheeks for so long. It's bound to blow soon.

    • Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:5, Funny)

      by SuperBanana ( 662181 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:57AM (#8529646)
      Have ya ever seen that commercial where the park ranger is pouring all the Metamucil down the Old Faithful?

      Yeah, but come to think of it, not recently...no wonder they're having problems! Quick, someone pop down to CVS and buy a can! Or maybe spring a little extra for some of that grit-free stuff...

    • Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:4, Funny)

      by kidgenius ( 704962 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:26AM (#8529757)
      Caldera huh? Looks around for an SCO connection
    • What's funny about that commercial is the little disclaimer at the bottom that says something like "Please obey all park rules", just in case we were really planning on dumping fiber drinks into geysers.

    • Re:It's Gonna Blow! (Score:2, Interesting)

      by //rhi ( 15411 )
      Caldera:
      Definition: [n] a large crater caused by the violent explosion of a volcano that collapses into a depression .
      hmmm - so _that's why they're calling themselves SCO these days.

    • If ya really wanna scare yourself... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Evil Pete ( 73279 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @07:56AM (#8530723) Homepage

      I don't mind a little bit of doom and gloom now and then ... as long as its way off and unlikely. Can be entertaining and makes you forget about your current problems. But I've been reading up stuff lately on Hubbert's Peak, and I gotta say I'm praying its just a tinfoil job cos its scaring the crap out of me.

      I came across the Hubbert's Peak a few years ago when I read a book review in American Scientist, but the implications didn't really sink in. Then recently I followed some google links. F*ck me. Just google for "Hubbert's Peak" or "peak oil". Basically, its based on analysis of the remaining cheap oil available to civilisation. Emphasis on cheap oil. Yeah yeah theres heaps of oil in the ground but if its 5 times more expensive then its no good cause the economies of the world will collapse. Here's the scary bit: according to predictions (by geologists) in the next few years (or by 2010) world production of oil will start to drop ... and never recover, and the price will just go up and up. End of civilisation ... yadda yadda. And no time to create alternatives. Funny thing is when you hear people like Dick Cheney saying the Club of Rome was correct, strange days.

      Fortunately, on slashdot I can be sure that the majority wont believe this so I am looking forward to basking in some ignorance. I feel like I need it.

      Dammit where's that tin foil hat ?

      • Re:If ya really wanna scare yourself... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Fnkmaster ( 89084 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @10:49AM (#8531987)
        I sometimes feel like a broken record on Slashdot, since I have a history of discussing this issue here and elsewhere. But in my opinion, the end of cheap oil is not necessarily a bad thing. You see, there are economic substitutes for oil. They are not as cheap as oil currently is, it's true. However, they are not orders of magnitude more expensive.


        If the extraction price of oil came up by a factor of 5, we'd finally have a situation where renewable fuels like bioethanol would become more economically feasible to produce and use than fossil fuel oils. Would the price of operating your car go up? A bit, perhaps 20-30% on average, maybe more. But in fact, a bioethanol-based fuel economy would likely have more stable long term fuel prices than the crazy market we have now, and I'm pretty sure that would be better for the economy then the insanity that's gone on over the last 5 years with fuel prices up and down by more than a factor of 2.


        Beyond basic automotive uses, there are still a lot of other uses for oil in the form of petroleum-derived products like plastics. I don't know the actual breakdown of uses, but I suspect that most of these products could be adapted to production from other forms of hydrocarbons as oil becomes more expensive. Or perhaps there would continue to be a sufficient supply of oil to make these products if the automotive uses were eliminated.


        In short, I don't think the world economy would crash overnight since I don't think the supply will run dry overnight - prices will start rising, and people will adapt to the technologies that have already been developed. Some serious legislative intervention may be required to speed things up when that does happen. But a lot of us would be happy indeed to see an end to the privileged role the oil-producing countries play on the world political scene.

        • > Some serious legislative intervention may be required to speed things up when that does happen. But a lot of us would be happy indeed to see an end to the privileged role the oil-producing countries play on the world political scene.

          And what do you think the first "legislative interventions" will be? Well, as oil starts to go dry, it will be harder for campanies to get enough supply for demand, so under usual market forces, they will have to reduce size or go out of business. Given the governme
      • eah yeah theres heaps of oil in the ground but if its 5 times more expensive then its no good cause the economies of the world will collapse. Here's the scary bit: according to predictions (by geologists) in the next few years (or by 2010)

        No way it's that soon. It's still coming up too fast for that - it's not going to be like hitting a wall, as individual wells will go dry at different times, we'll gradually start tapping the stuff that's kind of hard to drill, before moving on to the stuff that's really

        • Re:Coal liquifaction (Score:3, Informative)

          by Ironica ( 124657 )
          we're nearly paying that now in LA, and I believe the cost is currently higher than that in Europe now.

          When I was living in England in 1996, petrol was about 55 pence/liter, with an exchange rate of around 1.65 dollars to the pound. That comes out to about $3.44 a gallon. *In 1996.* Just accounting for inflation, that's over $4 a gallon now.

          Yeah, gas is substantially more expensive in Europe...

  • You can all take off your tin-foil hats now.... (Score:5, Informative)

    by BWJones ( 18351 ) * on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:48AM (#8529605) Homepage Journal
    Well, my father in law follows the geology of the Yellowstone basin fairly closely because of his job as a park Ranger up in Grand Teton (his dream retirement job). In all the conversations I have had with him, he has said nothing of this. To add to that, he lives just outside Jackson Wyoming (Cheny's undisclosed location interestingly enough or at least I've seen him around the Jackson area a number of times) and one would think he would be out of there had there been any dramatic increases in geologic activity indicative of an eruption or large scale animal deaths as alleged in these rumors.

    • "Cheny's undisclosed location interestingly enough or at least I've seen him around the Jackson area a number of times"

      I suggest you wear your tinfoil hat. The government is gonna get you now.

      Ben
      • I suggest you wear your tinfoil hat. The government is gonna get you now.

        No, no. You will notice I said "Cheny's", not "Cheney's". :-)

        Yeah, that's it. Old man Cheny down the road. The farmer. Yeah, you know him.......The guy with the horses.......and....the....big...barn...at...the end of the road?

    • Geological Time (Score:5, Interesting)

      by yintercept ( 517362 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:10AM (#8529698) Homepage Journal
      I pretty much hold with the crowd that predicts massive volcanic eruptions, shifting of plates, the erosion of entire mountain ranges, massive glaciation, massive floods...big canyons being carved in deserts, cities sinking under the ocean, deserts turning to forests, forests turning to desert and every single thing you can imagine.

      The sad thing is that I only get to live a human life span and will miss most of it.

      BTW, there is a hot spot under Yellowstone and big cinder cones and a lot of lave flows in Idaho. I think there is a better than average changes of some major event in a short geological time frame.

      • Re:Geological Time (Score:5, Interesting)

        by BWJones ( 18351 ) * on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:33AM (#8529783) Homepage Journal
        BTW, there is a hot spot under Yellowstone and big cinder cones and a lot of lave flows in Idaho. I think there is a better than average changes of some major event in a short geological time frame.

        Oh, there absolutely is, and its a whopper. What do you think is driving all the geysers? The real issue this poster was raising however was a more discrete event in the predictable near future, thus my post. At some point, the magma chamber may indeed break through, but there is no advanced knowledge of when that is going to be and certainly no conspiracy.

        • Re:Geological Time (Score:5, Informative)

          by i1984 ( 530580 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @05:01AM (#8530271)
          Even when a volcano erupts next in Yellowstone it is unlikely to be of a massive scale like the rare caldera forming events of the past. Yellowstone is an exceptional geologic feature, and the spectacular geysers, hot springs, mud pots, etc... are all due to the presence of molten rock at unusually shallow levels beneath the park. If, however, you look at the size and frequency of past eruptions, then combine that with present observations, it's clear that the risk of another catastrophic caldera forming event in our lifetimes is very low.

          Smaller eruptions are, however, much more common. There are various sorts of volcanic events that might qualify as "smaller eruptions," and it really wouldn't surprise me to see one in my lifetime.

          Steam explosions seem like the most likely candidate for the next eruption. Small ones occur every few years. These can blast steam and scorching hot rock high in to the air, but don't result in the actual eruption of lava -- they occur far above any molten rock. These events occur when groundwater, heated from below, flashes catastrophically to steam. Doing so entails the liquid water rapidly increasing in volume, and in order to make room for itself, rock (as well as trees, people, bison, and anything that might get in the way) may be excavated from the vicinity of the explosion. There's a bulge underneath Yellowstone lake that some people speculate is caused by the accumulation of hydrothermal gases and that may possibly represent the future site of a steam explosion (although, again, that's just speculation at this point), and part of Norris Geyser Basin has been temporarily closed because of concern that it could be the site of a future steam explosion -- the ground there recently heated up to around 200 degrees F. Generally, however, steam explosions are hard to predict, and they're also usually fairly localized and fleeting events that present relatively little hazard.

          There are also several dozen non-caldera forming volcanoes in the caldera and immediate vicinity. Most of these erupted shortly before or after the last giant eruption that occurred (roughly) 640,000 years ago. Keep in mind, however, that shortly is relative: most were spaced several thousand years apart. The last one erupted about 70,000 years ago.

          The nice thing about volcanic eruptions is that they usually give some indication that they're coming before any eruption actually occurs. Warning signs can include: ground inflation over wide areas which can be detected by tiltmeters, GPS, and satellite inferometry; changes in groundwater chemistry; earthquake swarms that indicate magma moving a depth; volcanic tremors; and changes in volcanic gas discharge from the ground (this effect can be observed at Long Valley Caldera [usgs.gov] in California where CO2 escaping from magma has killed many trees, and is present in high enough concentration to be dangerous for humans in some situations). Yellowstone is, furthermore, very well monitored and to date there is no increase in bckground activity to indicate any volcanic eruption is imminent.

          Human history has never recorded a giant caldera forming eruption like those that have occurred at Yellowstone and Long Valley Caldera, we know they are very infrequent events, and also know that much smaller events are much, much, more common. The largest eruptions should also give many of the same kinds of warning signs that other eruptions give, and probably many more. Again, it's also worth noting that past such eruptions at Yellowstone were prefaced for thousands of years by smaller eruptions.

    • Cheny's undisclosed location interestingly enough or at least I've seen him around the Jackson area a number of times

      Cheney has at the least had a summer home in Jackson Hole for a long time; he's a former congressman from Wyoming and changed his residency back from Texas to Wyoming in order to be Bush's running-mate.

      one would think he would be out of there had there been any dramatic increases in geologic activity indicative of an eruption or large scale animal deaths as alleged in these rumors.

      A

    • Any body else notice that first poster on SC joined that forum on Dec 31, 2003, has made 1650 posts in about 70 days, and yet is "breaking his self imposed exile" with his yellowstone ravings?

  • Guv'mint conspiracy? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Captain_Chaos ( 103843 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:49AM (#8529613)
    Hey, I can recycle my subject lines!

    Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now).

    Of course they won't. If anything they'll take it as a confirmation of the big government conspiracy to cover it up! The scientists were obviously on the government's payroll... (as they probably are, of course).

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • The scientists were obviously on the government's payroll...

      Indeed, and they're probably worthy, well-qualified, and properly vouched for...

    • Yeah, this shows a remarkable failure to understand what we in the debunkery biz like to call the "woo-woo" mentality. You start with the knowledge that stuff happens (big chunks of garbage strike the earth, things go boom, you know, the usual stuff) and ignore completely the fact that humans have been prediciting doom with great certainty continuously as can be plainly observed from the dawn of recorded history. Pick a favorite doomsday device (great floods are out of favor, more's the pity, planetary im

  • Geological & Astronomical timescales are not h (Score:5, Informative)

    by mbrother ( 739193 ) <mbrother.uwyo@edu> on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:53AM (#8529630) Homepage
    There is certainly a chance of a super volcano going up from Yellowstone, and the timescale where that is likely is longer than all of human history. There's an interesting book called Yellowstone Farwell by Wyoming geologist Wanyne Sutherland and his wife Judy (selling well in Wyoming anyway...see at http://www.yelllowstonefarewll.com). I live in Wyoming and worry about terrorism at a greater level than volcanoes (and I recall a Time magazine essay saying that all Americans could do to alleviate their worry over terrorism was to move to Wyoming!).
    • Small typo on that URL. Should be http://www.yelllowstonefarewell.com -- thanks.

    • Re:Geological & Astronomical timescales are no (Score:5, Insightful)

      by kfg ( 145172 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:16AM (#8529720)
      Yes, this is what makes the thing so magnetically attractive to the wing nut crowd. It's true. Yellowstone is a super caldera. It will very likely erupt again. . . someday.

      Maybe when the asteroid hits it. Of which there is also certainly a chance.

      Simple, factual uncertainty wigs some people out more than anything else.

      "My God! We're all going to die!"

      Well yeah, Sparky. Get used to it. But on the whole the greatest risk you face over the next several years is your drive to work. That ought to scare you silly. Roll over in bed. See your sweetie lying there? You're more likely to die at his/her hand than by a volcanic eruption. Even if you live in Hawaii. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

      Dig a hole. Crawl in. Die in the cave in because you were afraid of shoddy workmanship by contractors (paid off by the government, no doubt) and did a much worse job yourself.

      Either that or just lighten up, ferchristsake. Here, have a nice glass of cognac and a cigar to relax.

      Hey, why are you running away?

      Oh. Yeah. The government has told you that will kill you, nearly on the spot.

      Ain't it funny how people chose to chose what they want to believe about what the government tells them? I can't figure it out.

      KFG

      • Re:Geological & Astronomical timescales are no (Score:5, Interesting)

        by tonywestonuk ( 261622 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @06:20AM (#8530456)
        Maybe when the asteroid hits it. Of which there is also certainly a chance.

        The numbers game is different from the 'chances of asteroids hitting'. Let me explain, (following numbers are just for example, but you get the idea) Chances of been hit by asteroid.
        Year 1 - 0.0000001 %
        Year 2 - 0.0000001 %
        Year 3 - 0.0000001 %
        ..
        Year 9999 - 0.0000001 %

        Chances yellowstone errupting.
        Year 1 - 0.0000001 %
        Year 2 - 0.0000002 %
        Year 3 - 0.0000003 %
        ...
        Year 9999 - 0.0009999 %

        The difference between Yellowstone going up in smoke, and an asteroid, is that the chances of erruption increase each year an erruption hasn't occured, due to the previous years magma adding to the pressure. Eventually, the chances will become large enough that it will be more lightly to happen than not. As opposed to the asteroid hitting, that might happen, but probably not... and also not subject to the previous years non-event effecting this years chances.
        • In the Yellowstone calculation, you should take into account the chance that Yellowstone will erupt in a non-devastating way. If there's a minor eruption, that's no big deal (except for tourism, I guess), and it resets the build-up. I suspect there will be some sort of eruption within my lifetime, but I suspect it won't be anything to worry about.
      • Ain't it funny how people chose to chose what they want to believe about what the government tells them? I can't figure it out.

        For those who haven't seen "Bowling For Columbine", the last part delves into this subject. It posits that the government and news media like to keep the US populace living in fear. Fear of anything - just as long as there is fear. The movie doesn't really answer the question of whether it's a conspiracy, or maybe that the populace likes to be fearful and the government/media are j

    • HAHAHAHAHHA! (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 11, 2004 @03:35AM (#8529976)
      Wait a second: You worry about terrorism?

      Sir, you are absolutely insane.

      More Americans die in 36 hours from heart disease than were killed by terrorism in the entire year of 2001 (source [cdc.gov])

      If you're going to worry, at least worry about something that you actually have any control over - stop smoking. Take care with your diet and make sure that you get enough exercise. Don't drink and drive. Wear your seatbelt and make sure that you maintain your car.

      Worrying about terrorism isn't going to do anything, and your reaction to any "terror" event will be the same as if it wasn't terrorism: if there are shots, explosions or big fires - grab the nearest person who needs assistance - and run. Of course, if you've been worrying about your health rather than terrorism - you'll actually be able to run rather than waddle.

  • Correction (Score:5, Informative)

    by Cornelius the Great ( 555189 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:53AM (#8529631)
    "The Internet has been all a-buzz with tin-foil-hat geeks have been in a tizzy over supposed government coverups of a soon-to-come super eruption in Yellowstone (especially see The Shadow Confederacy, but also Rense.com, or BlackVault for entertaining examples)."

    You seem to have forgotten this gem [slashdot.org].

    I got your tin foil hat right here!

    • Don't forget the "classic" BBC supervolcano report (Score:5, Interesting)

      by alienmole ( 15522 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:23AM (#8529747)
      Here's the BBC documentary on supervolcanoes [bbc.co.uk]. The link to the transcript is at the bottom of the page.

      The interview above simply debunks the idea that there are currently any clues that an eruption is imminent (although much of it seemed to say "we're not measuring that"). However, there really is a giant magma chamber under Yellowstone, and if it ever breached in the right (or wrong) way, the continental US would be toast, and the rest of the planet would experience a nuclear winter style scenario.

      Depending on how you project the historical numbers, we may already be overdue for the next eruption. Then again, the margin for error is measured in millenia, so it's a little like the major asteroid strike scenario: it could happen anytime, but it probably won't.

  • Dead fish? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Captain_Chaos ( 103843 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:53AM (#8529632)

    From the article: Large numbers of dead fish were not found in Yellowstone Lake, or any other lake in Yellowstone.

    <HATTER TYPE="mad">So where were they found then?</HATTER>
  • Sorry to be vague, but wasn't there a documentary outlining some new information about the volcanic goings on around Yellowstone? I remember it, but it was a while ago...
    • You're probably thinking of the BBC documentary on supervolcanoes [bbc.co.uk]. The link to the transcript is at the bottom of the page.

      The interview above simply debunks the idea that there are currently any clues that an eruption is imminent. However, there really is a giant magma chamber under Yellowstone, and if it ever breached in the right (or wrong) way, the continental US would be toast. The next due date for an eruption is, well, any century now...

      • Re:Documentary (Score:5, Insightful)

        by RedWizzard ( 192002 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:50AM (#8529839)
        The next due date for an eruption is, well, any century now...
        No. People keep saying it's on a "clockwork" eruption cycle and we're "overdue". Yellowstone has erupted 3 times in the past approximately 2 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago and 600,000 years ago. Those three datapoints are what people are pulling this "clockwork 600,000 year cycle" from. Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of statistics can tell you how foolish extrapolating any three datapoints is, let alone in the field of vulcanology where things are so variable and we know so little.

        The fact is we don't know when Yellowstone will erupt, it could be tomorrow, it could be in a million years.

  • Suuure... (Score:5, Funny)

    by i love pineapples ( 742841 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:56AM (#8529645) Homepage
    Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles

    You'd like us to think that, wouldn't you? But everyone knows that angles were an invention brought to us by the purple skinned cat-people around the same time they built the pyramids and invented the mass hallucination that is Sweden! Nice try, though.

  • Eruptions in the US (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 11, 2004 @01:58AM (#8529655)
    I subcontract in the USGS CVO (Cascade volcano observatory).

    There is no big eruption planned in the continental US (don't know about Alaska or Hawaii). Otherwise I'd know.
    • lol. You're planning eruptions, are you? I'd like for Mt. Baker to erupt in the next couple days so it disturbs the way of life and I don't have to write my History paper. Thanks!

    • Re:Eruptions in the US (Score:4, Funny)

      by ultrasound ( 472511 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:59AM (#8529869)
      There is no big eruption planned in the continental US

      Maybe its an unplanned eruption?

    • Eruptions in Alaska (Score:4, Interesting)

      by core plexus ( 599119 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @03:12AM (#8529914) Homepage
      There is no big eruption planned in the continental US (don't know about Alaska or Hawaii). How is this 'funny'?

      Here's the scoop from the Alaska Volcano Observatory [alaska.edu]. And here is some information on what to do during an eruption [uaf.edu]. "Alaska is home to more than 40 volcanoes that have erupted in the last 200 years, and more than half of the state's population lives within 100 miles of an active volcano. The single greatest hazard from an explosive volcanic eruption is ash, fine fragments of rock blown into the atmosphere during volcanic eruption. Ash is carried downwind where the coarser particles fall to the ground and fine ash forms a cloud that is carried with the air currents. Ash is extremely abrasive, does not dissolve in water, and is heavy and slippery when wet. Inhaling ash can be dangerous, especially for those with breathing problems, for children, and the elderly. While ash is falling to the ground, you may experience prolonged darkness, loss of water and electricity, and have transportation and communication problems.

      I remember day being like midnight during one of the eruptions. The description above is very conservative. But it is my choice to live here, and I am well aware of the hazards. I've nearly been stomped by a moose in my year, and charged by bears, so a volcano is seemingly less of a threat. At least we don't have any muggers here.

      And here is a page for very recent earthquakes in Alaska, Russian Far East, Japan [alaska.edu], etc.

      -cp-

      • American government most slashdotters like to bash is doing an enormous job in preserving the world air travel (most North America to Far East routes fly over Alaska and Kamchatka).

        One of the biggest danger of the volcano eruptions is ash that clogs jet engines.

        So, monitoring equipment is put in many parts of the world by the USGS, and local people are trained in order to use it.

        Real time map of ash clouds is made, and planes are redirected if necessary.

        US Government foots the bill for all of these serv

        • Northwest Passage (Score:5, Interesting)

          by core plexus ( 599119 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @04:01AM (#8530081) Homepage
          Page for that is here [usgs.gov], thanks for reminding me.

          "North Pacific and Russian Far East air routes (gray lines) pass over or near more than a hundred potentially active volcanoes (red triangles). Aircraft flying along these routes, some of the busiest in the world, carry more than 10,000 passengers and millions of dollars of cargo each day to and from Asia, North America, and Europe. In the North Pacific region, several explosive eruptions occur every year. Ash from these eruptions, which has caused jet engines to fail, is usually blown to the east and northeast, directly across the air routes."

          And here's what happened to one 747: "As the crew of KLM Flight 867 struggled to restart the plane's engines, "smoke" and a strong odor of sulfur filled the cockpit and cabin. For five long minutes the powerless 747 jetliner, bound for Anchorage, Alaska, with 231 terrified passengers aboard, fell in silence toward the rugged, snow-covered Talkeetna Mountains (7,000 to 11,000 feet high). All four engines had flamed out when the aircraft inadvertently entered a cloud of ash blown from erupting Redoubt Volcano, 150 miles away. The volcano had begun erupting 10 hours earlier on that morning of December 15, 1989. Only after the crippled jet had dropped from an altitude of 27,900 feet to 13,300 feet (a fall of more than 2 miles) was the crew able to restart all engines and land the plane safely at Anchorage. The plane required $80 million in repairs, including the replacement of all four damaged engines."

          -cp-

          Alaska Bugs Sweat Gold Nuggets [alaska-freegold.com]

          • Re:Northwest Passage (Score:3, Insightful)

            by mpe ( 36238 )
            And here's what happened to one 747: "As the crew of KLM Flight 867 struggled to restart the plane's engines, "smoke" and a strong odor of sulfur filled the cockpit and cabin. For five long minutes the powerless 747 jetliner, bound for Anchorage, Alaska, with 231 terrified passengers aboard, fell in silence toward the rugged,

            A 747 without engine power does not fall it glides... Nor would it do so in silence, airflow over the wings and fuselage produces noise, as does the RAT.
  • Their interview with USGS Yellowstone scientists covers all the angles and should inspire the mad-hatters to find something else to fear (for now)."


    If there's one thing you can count on, its that mad-hatters never let any facts get in their way.

  • Conspiracy theories?? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by MagicDude ( 727944 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:00AM (#8529668)
    Maybe I'm missing something, but what who has anything to gain by covering this up?? Where's the conspiracy? So Yellowstone might have a volcano in it. If you aren't sure, go look for yourself. It's still open. The reason nobody knows anything about it is that there's nothing to know about it. The article says that everything they moniter leads them to believe that nothing is wrong, and the reason they don't release any other information is because they don't moniter every possible aspect of the park. It's only a conspiracy when they're intentionally trying to keep information from you.
    • ok..

      because the government NEEDS the hot springs. Millions of peoples go every year to the yellowstone to bathe in the hot springs. they are infected with various diseases (varries by year), in order to conduct wide-spread Genetic Trials on the populace. The goal? Well their short term goals consist of building a database using the peverted bacterium nucleosis. A terrible gene that affects the ability of the cel to produce the lesser know substance from its cousin -RNA. when this RNA bankrupt gene bonds wi

    • People who believe the conspiracy theory think the scientists and government are lying and they actually know that there will be an eruption soon and we will all die but they are lying because they don't want to cause a panic, or for some other more insidious reason, like the fact that the illuminanti have all escaped earth and left the rest of us to die. It is a "conspiracy" because they all got together and organized and agreed to tell this lie.
    • The one thing that all the conspiracies have in common is someone is selling a book that will tell you all the secrets that are being covered up. Buy the book and then "YOU TOO WILL KNOW WHAT THEY AREN'T TELLING YOU!!!!!" or "DON"T BE CAUGHT UNAWARES! BUY THIS BOOK TO KNOW THE ***REAL*** TRUTH!"

      Only problem is I'm not sure what the fake truth is.

  • The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (Score:5, Informative)

    by mao che minh ( 611166 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:07AM (#8529689) Journal
    Can be found here [usgs.gov].

    There is a lots of information concerning the actual research being conducted.

  • Caldera everywhere (Score:3, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:13AM (#8529712)
    Q: Have you seen rates of deformation anywhere in the caldera that have warranted an increased condition code? What level is the deformation criteria at currently?


    A: No. Upward and downward movement of the ground has been observed at Yellowstone using GPS and satellite interferometry measurement and many other caldera systems. This has lead to the idea that the dynamics of caldera ground motions are a composite of magmatic and hydrothermal fluid movement, but they have not led to eruptions in historic time at Yellowstone.
    Enough with the SCO stories, already!!

  • Coast to Coast AM (Score:4, Funny)

    by sn0wcrash ( 223995 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:14AM (#8529713)
    I will not believe anything these qualified scientists say until I here a Dr. of Quackology tell me it all safe on Coast to Coast AM. Until then I will believe this news is all a coverup to keep people from panicking. We all know the Gov't has a tiem machine and knows the truth!

  • Bias and Progress? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by core plexus ( 599119 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:19AM (#8529728) Homepage
    I'm an exploration geologist, and have experience with many facets of geoscience, such as geochemistry, geophysics, and other fields (excuse the pun).

    One thing I have encountered is the bias, whereby someone is so in love with a theory that they are blind to the fair maden that comes along later. It's hard to let go of the comfortable setup you have built over the years, and when some fresh outsider comes along and tells you different, it gets the blood boiling.

    I have encountered this with grizzled old prospectors who were positive they had found the next Sudbury or Ft. Knox [kinross.com], as well as 'cultured, educated' folks who have spent most of their time in the drawing room discussing theory. I have found numerous rich deposits, but due to economics, politics, or other obstacles, most shall remain ummined for now. In most cases, I dispensed with current trends and went back to the old stuff.

    Too often, someone will arrive at a "conclusion" that might look good at the time, but prove to be very wrong later. So what? Someone has to get it wrong. But one has to be able to release that burning stick.

    The Earth has many very serious events in its' past. We can expect more, and we have truly been living in a period of relative peacefulness. I've been to Yellowstone many times, and know what it is like to slip into a pool heated by the Earth, while Elk and Bison graze nearby. Been to Crater Lake, too. Now THAT was a big ol explosion, but it happened way before I got there. I've been in 3 volcanic eruptions, 2 in Alaska. It's quite exciting. One time I raced an oncoming cloud of ash.

    Funny, but when I read this I thought of the people I read of near Mt. St. Helens, and some friends I had in the Phillipines.

    -cp-

    • Re:Bias and Progress? (Score:5, Interesting)

      by rediguana ( 104664 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @03:26AM (#8529951)
      Been to Crater Lake, too. Now THAT was a big ol explosion, but it happened way before I got there.

      Another of the biggies was reported to be Lake Taupo in New Zealand. As well as having one of the largest (I think the 26.5ka Oruanui event has been estimated at 800 cubic km). The more recent eruption around 181AD was only about 50 cubic km, but is estimated to be one of the most violent eruptions.

      They have found metres of deposits from Taupo in Auckland which is over 250km away. One of the field trips we did on the Cities on Volcanoes 2 conference in Auckland in 2001, took us to Tamaki in Auckland where we could see around 6m worth of deposit from one Taupo eruption. I think it was this eruption that has been linked to the Chinese noticing changes in their sunsets.

      Check out google [google.com] for more info


  • After all this waiting you are telling me, that thing won't blow?
    Well, that damn thing sucks!!

  • Long Valley Caldera (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Mahonrimoriancumer ( 302464 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:32AM (#8529777) Homepage
    I think it is funny how many people are obsessed with the volcanic activity in Yellowstone but completely ignore the Long Valley Caldera. From the USGS [usgs.gov] website:
    Earthquake activity in the Long Valley area of eastern California increased greatly after 1978. ... Since 1980, typical background geologic activity in the Long Valley area has included as many as 20 earthquakes of magnitude 2 or smaller a day, occasional swarms of magnitude 3 and larger earthquakes (felt locally), and uplift of the center of Long Valley Caldera at a rate of about 1 inch per year. Swarms including magnitude 4 earthquakes may occur about once a year.

    This past semester in my geology class we did an in depth study about volcanos and this caldera in particular. My professor has a great deal of enthusiasm about this supervolcano because it is most likely going to erupt within the next 50-100 years.

    • Re:Long Valley Caldera (Score:5, Interesting)

      by WhiteBandit ( 185659 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @03:17AM (#8529923) Homepage
      Yes, but the caldera itself isn't very likely to erupt. What you would get is a relatively small (as far as volcanic eruptions go) eruption at Mammoth Mountain or at one of the craters in a chain that runs to the north.

      Volcanic activity has occured there within the last 600 years or so as well. Just take a short drive up 395 to Obsidian Dome. That pile of obsidian wasn't there 600 years ago! What is actually interesting is that you can sit on top of Obsidian Dome and look north towards Mono Lake and you will see a series of similiar looking hills that form the Mono-Inyo Craters.

      There is a lot of evidence that there is magma beneath the ground. From various earthquake swarms, to the hot springs towards the south to the treekill at Horseshow Lake.

      Anyway, check out the USGS's outlook on the Long Valley Caldera [usgs.gov] and also browse around the . [usgs.gov]

  • Webicorders (Score:3, Informative)

    by umofomia ( 639418 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @02:56AM (#8529857) Journal
    They made several references to webicorders in the article... I never heard that word before and Googled for it to find the definition:
    The Webicorder is a Web display of seismic data. The display looks like paper records made by machines called "helicorders". A plot of the data is called a seismogram.

    http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/K20/about.html [pnsn.org]

  • Damn.. there goes my 'I guess Yogi'll be going out with a bang' joke.

  • Tin Foil Hats indeed (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Hays ( 409837 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @03:30AM (#8529964)
    Hahah... What is with these people? check out the posts by "Dragonrider" on the shadow confederacy web site [pdjkeelan.co.uk]

    This guy is certifiable. Ahh.. isn't the internet wonderful.

  • Non-answers (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Andy Smith ( 55346 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @03:42AM (#8529997)
    This is the first I'd heard of this rumour but one thing I do know is that the worst thing you can do when confronted with a rumour is give an answer that can be seen as evasive.

    Seems the Yellowstone scientists don't know this. For example, the first question...
    Q: There have been continuing rumors at various web sites that animals are either leaving the park en-masse, or dying in large numbers. These rumors include stories of large numbers of fish dying in Yellowstone Lake. The cause is stated as increased toxic gaseous emissions. Are there animals leaving the park? Or dying in large numbers? Are there large numbers of fish being found dead in the lake?

    A: Toxic emissions are no worse than usual at Yellowstone. The park's wildlife population has undergone no problems due to toxic emissions. Some of the park's wildlife is migratory, such as bison, elk, and many species of birds. This year's migrations were not unusual. Large numbers of dead fish were not found in Yellowstone Lake, or any other lake in Yellowstone.
    Even as someone who approached this story with an open mind and no preconceived ideas, when I read this answer I had two immediate thoughts...
    This year's migrations were not unusual.
    If animals were leaving due to some sort of environmental change then that wouldn't be migration, so saying that the "migrations were not unusual" doesn't answer the question. (ie: The migrations may have been perfectly normal but what about the thousands of animals leaving for unexplained reasons?)
    Large numbers of dead fish were not found in Yellowstone Lake, or any other lake in Yellowstone.
    Don't dead fish wash up on the shore? So isn't that where they'd be found? Again, saying that they weren't found *in* the lakes doesn't strictly answer the question.

    Anyway, I'm not trying to side with the conspiracy folks here because to be honest I don't actually know what their 'side' is, but that interview did set off some alarm bells for me. Whenever I see answers that are very specific, but specifically not an answer to the exact question that was asked, I become suspicious.
  • Sure enough, the Yellowstone caldera will blow high and mighty one of these millenia, and send an ash plume to the East Coast too. But we'll be able to pay handily for the damage by a simple use tax put on biogenetics companies, levied on the billions and billions of $$$ they're making from the genetics of the bacteria they pull out of the hot springs there. I've seen the little square of cyanobacterial mat they cut out of Octopus Pool up by Great Fountain geyser. That little square alone was worth billi

  • Comforting (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Florian B ( 761213 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @04:37AM (#8530199)
    "There is no continuous monitoring of ground movement of the lake bottom." "There is no continuous gas monitoring in the park." "There is no continuous monitoring of the magnetic field in Yellowstone." "..a more complete set of wider frequency seismometers would be very useful to monitor such signals throughout the entire Yellowstone volcanic field." "We have recently applied for funds..." One can say with certainty, not noticeable change was observed. How comforting.

  • Why Yellowstone, anyway. . ? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Fantastic Lad ( 198284 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @04:45AM (#8530223)
    The recent stories had the smell of hysteria from the outset. I filed them under, "Hm. Better keep an eye on this. Volcanoes do blow up from time to time, and the region is pretty unstable. Old Faithful spouts for a reason!"

    But it didn't seem like the thing to be focusing on. The Yellowstone situation, (or non-situation, depending on your news source), seems more like a symptom than a real focus of concern.

    With Blue Bands showing up on Jupiter, (indicating massive upheavals of lower atmospheric gasses), and the crazy solar flare activity of late last summer. . .

    Like the tides, this stuff is gravity related. Something big is going on out there, and I've mentioned one of the theories as to what may be many (modded to dust) posts ago.

    --Brown Dwarf Companion to the Sun passing nice and close out Pluto-way. Moving through the Kuiper Belt. Disrupting comets down into lower orbits. Cyclical comet disasters on Earth based on this. --We're seeing the final bits of the last cycle burning up and even hitting the earth even now. . . Soon to be renewed by a bunch of rocks from the rim!

    Not something to get upset over, of course, but watch the skies! I wonder where the first big one is going to land. . ?

    As the esoterics say, "The Human experiential cycle is mirrored by the Universe." --And Human experience is a pretty harsh ride at the moment. The world has gone nuts.

    --I just read in a local paper that cops are now charging people for leaving their keys inside unlocked cars. In order to protect the insurance corporations! It may be subtle, but it's basically saying that it's against the law to trust my fellow humans. And the fact is that most people won't even blink an eyelash at his.

    Yep. The world is nuts.


    -FL

  • assessment (Score:5, Informative)

    by Undefined Parameter ( 726857 ) <fuel4freedom@ya h o o .com> on Thursday March 11, 2004 @05:32AM (#8530339)
    I used to live in Wyoming, and I still have some relatives there. Back when I was in middle school there, we learned all about the Yellowstone Cauldera; Wyoming school kids are lucky in that the state is so geologically diverse and interesting.

    Anyhow, I'm just establishing that I have some tiny bit of credibility, despite the fact that I admit I'm not a fully-trained or professional geologist.

    I think, aside from the tinfoil-hat bent, the issue here boils down to two questions: Is Yellowstone a danger? And, Is the danger immediate?

    To the first, the answer is a powerful yes. Were Yellowstone to blow like it has before, there's a pretty good chance most of the human population would be wiped out.

    To the second question, the answer is: probably not. Overall, the geothermal activity in Yellowstone has been cooling down in the last fifty years. There is an increase in geothermal activity North of Yellowstone, but I've been informed that it's new and a relatively small danger. The theory is, in regards to that, that the hot spot which has caused all the fun activity in Yellowstone is simply moving northward.

    As for the rest... well, you can draw your own conclusions.

    (Apologies for any errors or typos; I'm literally half asleep as I type this.)

    ~UP

  • Chaotic and Quixotic... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Genda ( 560240 ) <mariet@nOspaM.got.net> on Thursday March 11, 2004 @06:17AM (#8530449) Journal
    Human beings are simply lousy at managing long term threat. If we can't look it in the eye's we ignore it, until it bites us in the back side and leaves us bleeding with no butt... that or we end up rediculously phobic, unable to function, worrying about things that are astronomically unlikely and ignoring the sure threats that are around us daily.

    The folks in Japan thought they had quakes down flat, then Kyoto showed them they were rediculously under prepared. Even now, people are building home virtually "on" the San Andreas fault in southern California, because the short term economics outweighs the long term insanity of certain disaster. The biggest threats to people, of the hand of god type, are; * Surprise boulders or snowballs from space, * Super Volcanoes (the magma chamber under Mammoth Mountain California are a lot more scary than the Yellowstone caldera, at least at present.) * Super Tsunamis (a large slope failure on the big island in Hawaii could produce a wave over a thousand feet high on the American west coast.) * A tremendous amount of methane has been discovered on the Atlantic ocean floor. If the gas that is currently locked up were to be released all at once, a disaster killing millions of Europeans or Africans would be almost certain. * A super deadly bug, currently hidden in the deep tropics get contracted and spreads around the world making SARS, HIV, Chicken Flu, and Ebola look like a walk throug the park. We know there are terrible nasties in the jungle. It's only a matter of time before somebody catches something truly grievous. We know that the human population was at one time reduced to fewer than 1,500. Around the same time about 25,000 years ago, many of our closest hominid cousins went to their final rest. This coincides fairly well with a really big supervolcano eruption in Malasia (I believe), that may have made things very difficult for hominids for more than a decade. So we know this is a real threat. The problem is that largish tracts of history pass with no sign of serious disaster then BOOM! Something goes horribly wrong. Lot's of people get pushed off this mortal coil. Lot's of people pass down legends about the hard times and people forget. After a few years it's business as usual.

    Our leaders need to take realistic precautions. They need to create sound technological contigencies for real but rare threats. The work on this super disasters should be proportinal to the likelihood of serious destruction divided by the real probability of the threat... i.e. spend more on helping folks lose weight and quit smoking, than making national plans to survive a super volcano.

    Within reason protect people from their own stupidity, and short sightedness. At the same time, it is important to prioritize threats, and make sure that you're addressing the ones that will more often than not bite you in the butt. Once you've got those issuesmanaged, then you have time and resources to protect yourself against the vagueries of the universe. That and you spent more time having a life that worked, than worrying about what you cannot control.

    Genda

  • Dont fear geysers... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Cyno01 ( 573917 ) <Cyno01@hotmail.com> on Thursday March 11, 2004 @07:24AM (#8530627) Homepage
    If you live on the east coast fear the half kilometer tall super-tsunami thats set to slam into the east coast as far as 12 miles inland when one of the canary islands collapses into the ocean during its next eruption, which could be any day now. Just something to think about. :)

  • Attention /. readers: (Score:3, Funny)

    by defishguy ( 649645 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @08:36AM (#8530874) Journal
    RE: Copyright Infringement

    From: D. McBride

    Attention: It has come to our attention that some newsworthy geologic fluctuations are occurring at Yellowstone National Park Lake. It has also come to our attention that several scientists and conspiracy advocates are unlawfully using the term "Caldera" to describe what is otherwise known as a super volcano. Please be advised that "Caldera", "Caldera Systems", and "Caldera Anything Else" are copyrights owned by the SCO Corporation. You are advised that as of March the 12th we will begin legal action to protect our copyrights. Additionally a lawsuit against against the Federal Government for ownership of the "Yellowstone National Park" as we believe that Yellowstone Lake is a derivative work built on our copyright.

    Thank You:

    Santa Cruz Operation
    AKA: Owners and Master of the Known Universe

  • The thing tinfoil-hats should REALLY worry about (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Megane ( 129182 ) on Thursday March 11, 2004 @09:20AM (#8531158)
    Do a google search for "new madrid earthquake". I don't recommend that you make long-term plans to live in Memphis.

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