Earthquake Prediction Months In Advance

eegad writes "A UCLA seismologist named Vladimir Keilis-Borok claims earthquakes can be predicted months in advance. In the article at the University of California Newswire, he claims that the "team including experts of pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory, statistical physics and public safety ... has developed algorithms to detect precursory earthquake patterns." It also says "the team's current predictions have not missed any earthquake, and have had its two most recent ones come to pass." They predict "an earthquake of at least magnitude 6.4 by Sept. 5, 2004, in a region that includes the southeastern portion of the Mojave Desert, and an area south of it." We'll see if they're right."

so...

[inkedmn]

They got rid of the old guy with his knee that "acts up" right before an earthquake?

Re:so...

[ThrasherTT]

No, he died in an earthquake.

They're certain it works

[Anonymous Coward]

They just can't seem to get their results to agree with the computer's results on that one inverted gamma factor

Earthquakes predicted months in advance,

[Anonymous Coward]

Still no cure for cancer

I can see it now...

[clifgriffin]

Coming soon to a TV near you: The earthquake channel! Get your 10 day seismic activity forecast!

Re:so...

[955301]

Yeah, read that article. Some witnesses said he almost made it to safety. Except that something appeared to be wrong with his knee just before the earthquake started, so he couldn't run fast enough. Got crushed by falling objects warning sign.

let's hope

[Transcendent]

They predict "an earthquake of at least magnitude 6.4 by Sept. 5, 2004, in a region that includes the southeastern portion of the Mojave Desert, and an area south of it." We'll see if they're right.

C'mon schwartz.... c'mon schwartz!

DUH!!

[D-Cypell]

Scientists have known about these advanced prediction techniques for decades...

Unfortunatly, the original research was destroyed in an earthquake in 1987.

Predicting....or causing??

[Anonymous Coward]

How do we know this guy isn't some sort of evil arch villian with an earthquake machine? How?? Huh? How??

San Jose early 90s

[phrostie]

Who remembers the San Jose earthquake back in the early 90s? who here knew that there was a conference on Seismology there that same day.

probably the same number of seismologist that knew an earth quake was coming.

BTW, the conference was cut short.

Pattern Recognition

[Bob Uhl]

...team including experts of pattern recognition...

Wow, I knew grep is powerful, but not that powerful;-)

Re:So that means...

[TheDredd]

Oh well, that were easy carma points up for grabs

Re:Yep

[American AC in Paris]

While this is a great advance, the real deal will be when we get to the point we can predict precisely enough to WARN the people living in these areas.

As in, hey two weeks from friday, leave the area for a day or two.

Dear Greater Los Angeles Metro Area ,

It has come to our attention that there is a high risk of an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater strking the Greater Los Angeles Metro Area in the next 24-48 hours. While we understand you may be concerned about the prospect of this earthquake, rest assured that the vast majority of earthquakes that strike the Greater Los Angeles Metro Area region are no greater than magnitude 5 , and we do not expect this magnitude 8 earthquake to cause any unusual disruption to your daily schedule. In general, we only advise evacuation in the event of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake. This magnitude 8 earthquake is certainly no cause for alarm.

Once again, thank you for subscribing to our automated Earthquake Alert Service, Greater Los Angeles Metro Area !

Predictions improved

[RealProgrammer]

I predict that:

• A quake of at least 6.5R will hit Southern California before September 3, 2004.
• Arnold Swarzenegger will call out the National Guard and save the day, leading to a Constitutional Amendment declaring him "High Overlord of Der Stat en Kalifehrnzie".
• The Colorado river will widen by 11 inches, which will result in parts of it becoming wet.
• Tonight, at some point, it will be dark. (my apologies to George Carlin)

I'll be more impressed if they can predict a quake on the less-active, but violent, New Madrid fault [memphis.edu].

Re:I can see it now...

[morcheeba]

Actually, I'd prefer to get this info on my cell phone, and I don't need much advance time. If it could turn on the vibrator while the earthquake was going on, that would be good. That way, I'll never miss another one due to riding in the back of a bus.

Doom 3 release?

[sik0fewl]

Predicting earthquakes is easy. I'd like to see them predict the release date for Doom 3. Then I'll be impressed.

Re:Knowledge - Will it change much?

[dexter riley]

One thing bothers me, however. Okay, so we know that there's going to be an earthquake somewhere in the world. The question is, what can we do?

Bubble wrap! Miles and miles of bubble wrap.

Digital Nostradamus

[wornst]

If these scientists really want attention they will have to release their predictions using vague and eery language.

For Mojave: "Beneath the sands in the month of Labor a great movement will startle those not of the slashed dot"

Even better if they did this on television wearing period clothing and staring into a crystal ball or caldron of some sort. It could be quite dramatic.