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Programming Science IT Technology

Perfect Weather on the Net 290

Posted by michael from the problems-for-a-rainy-day dept.
ctwxman writes "Here in the East, we're having a heck of a weekend. The snow has been flying, accompanied by wind, accompanied by people on TV saying, 'stay home.' I'm one of those people. I forecast the weather for a living. It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill. And, there's a new puzzle every day, tenuously linked to the one you solved yesterday. When I started doing this over 20 years ago, the data to accomplish the task was tough to come by. I remember how excited I got when I first was able to get data at 300 baud on a request/reply basis (I guess we call that interactive now). Now, nearly everything you need to forecast the weather is here, on the net. Yes, there are a zillion sites that already have the finished forecast, but this is Slashdot. We don't need no stinkin' forecasters!" Read on for ctwxman's notes on do-it-yourself weather forecasting.

ctwxman continues:

I always like to start at NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) for a look at the dynamic models. Each is run using somewhat different equations, making them often come up with different, quite contrary solutions. Some of these models, like the GFS are worldwide in their coverage and forecast out an amazing 16 days (note: the word accurately was not used in the last sentence). Once the dynamic models are through, we can massage them against past performance under similar circumstances at specific places. These are the statistical models, referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistic) models. Again, there are somewhat different solutions from different models. If none of these work for you, run your own. There are programs available to allow you to run your own model, specifying the domain, grid spacing, time interval, etc. The most commonly used research model of this type is the MM5, produced at Penn State University. Run it on your PC! Of course, it's freely available and supported. Sometimes, the data you want already exists, but not in the form you'd like to see it. That's where software like GrADS comes in. Put out by the Institute of Global Atmosphere and Society's Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, GrADS claims to be an 'interactive desktop tool that is used for easy access, manipulation, and visualization of earth science data.' I agree with all except 'easy.' I run a version of GrADS on my server in order to produce localized forecast graphics like this that wouldn't otherwise be available. Yes, looking at satellite imagery and radar is a lot of fun... but the real fun is knowing what will be there before you look. And, astoundingly enough, we are significantly more accurate (and I get assaulted significantly less often at the grocery store) than even a few years ago.
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Perfect Weather on the Net More

Perfect Weather on the Net

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  • Run your OWN weather station (Score:5, Interesting)

    by caferace ( 442 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:48PM (#7654394) Homepage
    I bet I'm not alone doing this. Decent weather stations are cheap, and it's simple enough to hook it into your box and keep statistical models on a running basis. Using wx200d [sourceforge.net] and an Oregon Scientific WM-918 [netfirms.com] (sold under other names as well) is a great solution for less than USD $200.

    Granted, it's not true forecasting, but you can easily add your data to aggregate with other users at Weather Underground [wunderground.com] and pull radar data from just about anywhere.

    Me? I just like to know what's happening NOW, but it's also pretty handy to know what the temp is in your home "server room".

    Tying all this historical data back into longer range forecasts would be fun. I've found TV forecasting to be pretty stale and inaccurate. How many of them have real meteorological degrees anyway?

  • Old wives tails (Score:5, Interesting)

    by rf0 ( 159958 ) * <rghf@fsck.me.uk> on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:48PM (#7654396) Homepage
    Red sky at night shepards delight. Red sky in the morning shepards warning.

    Lot of truth in that saying

    Rus

    • Re:Old wives tails (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:53PM (#7654423)
      I thought it was sailor, not shepard.

      I guess you're closer to the sheep than the sea.

      • Re:Old wives tails (Score:5, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:26PM (#7654612)
        The origin can be traced to the Bible (possibly before, but don't know of any reference):

        Matthew 16:3:

        He answered and said unto them, "When it is evening, ye say, 'It will be fair
        weather: for the sky is red.'
        And in the morning, 'It will be foul weather today: for the sky is red and
        lowring.'"

        Not only can the colour of the sky be affected by pressure fronts as pointed out in other places, but it can also indicate the movement of cold fronts. I suppose the 'sailor version' is more well known in the US because almost the entire population imigrated by sea... but the 'shepherd version' which is more well known in Europe, will pervade agricultural commuities more.

        • This is a great submission. I too was a weather geek before (or rather while becoming) a computer geek.

          Here's another bit of trivia related to atmospheric physics that can come in handy: Buys Ballots Law [1911encyclopedia.org].

          Basically, in the northern hemisphere, if the wind is at your back low pressure is on your left (on your right for those of you down south). When you combine that bit of trivia with the knowledge that most bad weather is associated with low pressure, it comes in handy when trying to plan a golf ga
      • I thought it was sailor, not shepard.

        And I thought people who herded sheep were called shepherds.

      • "Shepherd" is a verb here, genius...

    • Re:Old wives tails (Score:5, Informative)

      by Professor_Quail ( 610443 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:57PM (#7654447) Homepage
      It has to do with the way fronts and pressure systems move...if there's a red sky at night, it means a high pressure front has moved in (means clear weather); a red sky at morning means just the opposite, an area of low pressure has moved in.

      Here's a site with more on weather proverbs:
      Weather Proverbs [wxdude.com]

    • Re:Old wives tails (Score:3, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Didn't know wives had tails!!? I guess we must descend from the monkeys after all, then.
    • Red sky at night, sailors delight
      Red sky at morning sailors take warning

      (And the important corrollary...)

      Brown sky all day, your in L.A.
    • Weather on a Slashdot head - Slow Day on the Internet

    • Red sky at night shepards delight. Red sky in the morning shepards warning.

      Lot of truth in that saying

      You can actually use that for most anything because the rhyming has nothing to do with the conditions. For example, you could substitute "green" for the color and "sailor" for the type of delight to yield:

      Green sky at night, sailors delight. Green sky in the morning, sailors take warning.

      As long as it rhymes, people will think that you are a genious... and it is about as accurate as the weather repo

    • What about orange sky at 11:00 AM? (Score:5, Informative)

      by Skim123 ( 3322 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:41PM (#7654682) Homepage
      Here's a picture from my street at 11:00 AM [scottonwriting.net] from back in late October. Orangish-brownish, although I think this had more to do with the San Diego wildfires burning 10 miles away moreso than weather fronts. ;-)
    • I sail on the west coast and in San Francisco Bay. This saying comes the east coast and it has to do with the moisture content in the air. It does work for them but doesn't work on the west coast.

      I'm not sure what the equivalent saying would be for SF. Probably something pithy about five to seven fog cycles, which is the biggest hazard on the bay.

    • And the famous corrolary, "If the birds are in the sky and upside down, you're drunk and lying on the ground." Courtesy Bill Engvall.

  • I got it... (Score:4, Funny)

    by hookedup ( 630460 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:49PM (#7654398)

    Look out the window.

  • A great job... (Score:5, Funny)

    by wrinkledshirt ( 228541 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:50PM (#7654405) Homepage
    It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill.

    Coupled with the fact that nobody expects weathermen to be right anyway, must be a great living.

    Imagine a nuclear physicist saying, "You know, it's funny, but yesterday all indications were that today was going to be a smooth day for our reactor. How about that, eh?"

    • Re:A great job... (Score:4, Funny)

      by thorpie ( 656838 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:37PM (#7654659)
      "Trust me, i'm a weather forecaster" is my standard "you can trust me line". I still use it, but if forecasts get better I may have to change back to "I'm a used car salesman" or "I work for SCO" or the like.

    • Re:A great job... (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward
      IANAWM, but my understanding is that accurate forecasting is all about the quality of your data, the quality of your models, and how many times and how far out you can run them, accounting for typical local variations.

      The guys who report the weather forecast on TV and radio don't. They're basing their forecasts on the basic atmospheric data and doppler radar. Which is not bad in and of itself, but it's only part of the picture. Forecasting like that is by nature limited in its ability to be accurate. E

      • Re:A great job... (Score:3, Interesting)

        by GuidoDEV ( 57554 )
        I've got an AthlonXP 2100+ and can run an 84-hour forecast using the MM5 in 2 1/2 hours. The domain is the continental US (plus some buffering around the CONUS, such as southern canada, parts of the atlantic/pacific, etc.), with a 40km gridpoint spacing and 30 vertical levels.

        By contrast, the Eta model run by NCEP currently runs at 12km grid spacing with around 100 vertical levels (I believe), but the key is that the forecast from a 40km model run and a 12km model run usually differ very little, though th

  • Weather Stations? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Xenothaulus ( 587382 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:52PM (#7654418) Homepage
    Spend time outside. The more you do that, the more attuned you become to the weather and what it's going to do. Yes, I said outside. It's that place on the other side of the window by your desk.
    • thats so true

      as a kid I did tons of sailing, and its really not hard to predict the weather in a coupe of hours. With a little more practice its possible to predict the way winds will shift with pretty good results.

      Then again I dont recomend anyone put all of there trust in there guess for the weather. I have been stuck on the water in a damn near tornado before(a big black cloud formed over my head and started swirling).

    • Very True (Score:2, Interesting)

      by waldoj ( 8229 ) *
      When hiking the Appalachian Trail, knowing what the weather would be like for at least the next 12 hours or so was as easy and unconscious as knowing how I felt and how I would be feeling in the near future.

      Now that I'm off the trail, that skill is all but gone, unfortunately. It just takes a few days out of doors, though, and I start to pick it up again.

      -Waldo Jaquith

    • spend time outside

      My grandfather taught me to watch the birds. They get nervous when the weather is about to change.

      Smell the air, look at the sky, examine the clouds, and feel the wind, the temperature, and the humidity.

      I can almost always tell whether it's going to rain or not. In central Illinois, that's quite a trick.

    • It's that place on the other side of the window by your desk.

      What is that "window" thing you are talking about?

  • But what about for us up here in Canada? Anyone know of any good sites for Canadian weather? I usually start looking at the Weather Network (http://www.theweathernetwork.com) since it usually seems to be fairly accurate (at least in the short term!)
    Are there any other really good weather sites for Canadian cities?
    • It's gonna be cold, eh?

    • how about ... Environment Canada? (Score:3, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Oh, I don't know... how about Environment Canada? You know, the place the weather network and every other forecasting service in the country gets their data...

      weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca [ec.gc.ca]

    • Re:That's great for the US (Score:4, Informative)

      by girouette ( 309616 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:09PM (#7654515)
      The Meteorological Service of Canada has a web page at:
      http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/canada_e.html . The going was a little rough there for a while (we don't have the resources of the big media outlets to make it look pretty) but it is getting better all the time. It is also the place where the information is guaranteed to be up to date.

      Watch out about the images under "weather charts". They are still the large, old-style monochromatic images. (That will change, eventually, to smaller colour images).
      • Yes, but when will you get the Mechanic Settlement (WMX) Radar back on the net? The image says that it was taken down October 6th for 6 weeks maintenance. It still isn't up.

        Just finished shovelling the drive here. More to come. Sigh. Looking forward to next year in Africa.
    • Try poletopole.org [poletopole.org]. We're a bit lacking in forecasts at the moment, but current conditions are much better than most of what's out there (esp the Weather Network).

  • Where's the raw data? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Quixote ( 154172 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:53PM (#7654422) Homepage Journal
    I work in machine learning, and weather forecasting has always seemed like an interesting problem to explore. However, the lack of accurate raw data (temperature, dewpoints, pressure, humidity, precipitation, etc.) going back 30-40 years is a handicap. Where can one get such raw data, in a machine-readable format?

    Also, I have been toying with the idea of writing a script to automatically grade the predictions put out by Wunderground and Weather.com, to see how accurate they are. It would be nice to see if it is really worth it to rely on their 5-day forecast.

    • Re:Where's the raw data? (Score:5, Informative)

      by aemain ( 678301 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:58PM (#7654453)
      NOAA's National Climatic Data Center [noaa.gov] has a lot of the raw data available, most of it for free (especially if you're coming from a .edu domain). Both US and international data.
      • I'm sorry, but detailed (hourly?) data is almost all for pay. Everywhere you look, you'll have to pay to get at the data. Please browse around in that site and see if you can find detailed data for free. I could not (but I could be mistaken, and wouldn't mind being corrected).

    • A few months ago I wanted to putz around with some hourly temperature data covering a year or so for a couple of cities. Since this data is produced by the National Weather Service using MY tax dollars (OK - yours too), I was sure I'd find treasure troves of it online.

      Wrong! What I did find was a couple of companies that wanted quite a bit of money for it. Since I was just playing around anyway, I passed on that. As with all other evils, I'm sure the republicans are to blame for this...

      • Good question. If other agencies such as NASA and USGS can make a good portion of data available, for free, on the Internet, I wonder why the Weatheer Bue^H^H^H^H^H^H NOAA can't?

        Especially for low maintenance things such as raw weather statistics. I can understand if they we're trying to charge for satellite imagery and such.

  • In a related story... (Score:5, Funny)

    by cr@ckwhore ( 165454 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:56PM (#7654436) Homepage
    Meanwhile, weather forecasters around the world were puzzled Sunday as access to weather data over the internet crawled to a halt. A Whitehouse representative denied rumors of a terrorist attack on the weather infrastructure.

    The mysterious cause of the delays in weather data are under investigation.

  • Here in Seattle the weather forcasts are wrong more than they are right. They're so bad I quit checking the forecasts years ago.

    If forecasters got paid based on accuracy, they'd owe me money!

    • Re:If Only it was right! (Score:5, Funny)

      by no reason to be here ( 218628 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:08PM (#7654510) Homepage
      Here in Seattle the weather forcasts are wrong more than they are right.

      How the Hell can you screw up a weather forecast for Seattle?

      "Tomorrow's weather forecast: 'Rain'"
    • Try this trick on for size. You live in Seattle, so the weather does follow some predictable patterns. Look to the south-west. Any approaching warm fronts will be coming from that direction. You can get up to two hours of warning of oncoming rain. Swing your gaze to the west/north-west. High cirrus clouds on the horizon predict rain up to 8 hours ahead of time. It's amazing how accurate you can become at predicting the daily weather with just a little practice.
    • Here in Seattle the weather forcasts are wrong more than they are right.

      It's that way everywhere. Meteorology is not a science, it's voodoo!
    • "They're so bad I quit checking the forecasts years ago."

      Yup, just as with Computers, last time I checked they were damn slow so I quit using them years ago.

    • Re:If Only it was right! (Score:4, Interesting)

      by gurustu ( 542259 ) <gurustu @ a t t.net> on Sunday December 07, 2003 @03:15PM (#7654842)
      Seattle (and West Coast) accuracy is always going to be lower than you'd like (and lower than the East Coast's, for example) simply as a result of fewer observations.

      The rest of the nation gets to see weather data from thousands of weather stations as patterns move from West to East, while Seattle gets its (relatively) skimpy data from satellites and scattered ocean stations.

  • Not sure they've gotten more accurate.... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by analog_line ( 465182 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @01:58PM (#7654456)
    I'm in the Beverly/Salem area and at least the numbers I've been seeing for accumulation are all way too low. They're saying 7-14 inches total for the weekend on NECN for our area, and I personally walked through at least 7 inches of new undrifted snow that has fallen between 2:30 AM and 12:00PM. There's two foot of fall out there if there's an inch, and the snow plows STILL can't keep up with it. 4 foot plus drifts. There was 3 feet of snow on two of the three doors, and the other only a foot and a half.

    7-14 inches overnight, I can believe. For the whole storm is utterly ridiculous. Don't know where these people are getting their figures, but someone around here isn't looking out the window, all I have to say.
    • Official numbers are taken from wherever the official weather station is located. Here in Dallas (where I'm living), the numbers are taken from the measurements at D/FW Airport (between Irving and Ft. Worth, TX.) which causes some interesting situations. One summer, despite rain falling all over the Metroplex, the drought we had been going through continued unabated, as no rain fell at the Airport.
  • The easiest job in the world?

    Weatherman in San Diego, California.
    • I'm not so sure. Suppose your "75 and Sunny for the next 72 weeks" forecast is interrupted by a "78 and Sunny"? People would call for your resignation I'm sure. Here in Buffalo, you could forecast "Sun and clouds, between 25-75 degrees in the morning, with a 47.3% chance of a rogue snow squall by 3PM. Possibility of thunderstorms this evening, maybe some clearing towards dawn." People would praise your accuracy =)
    • You could have at least credited Lewis Black with this one.

      "So what's the weather like today John?"

      "Uh...nice. Back to you."

  • There are only 10 types of people (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:01PM (#7654472)
    those who understand METAR and TAF and those who don't...

    e.g.:
    (Terminal Airport Forecast of J-F Kennedy Airport)
    2002/11/17 09:14
    KJFK 170914Z 170913 03021G32KT 6SM -RA BR OVC012
    TEMPO 0913 3SM RA BR OVC008
    FM1400 02013G20KT 5SM -RA BR OVC012
    FM2100 36011KT 5SM -RA BR OVC020
    FM0400 34009KT 5SM -RA BR OVC015
  • As a GA pilot, I'm always very interested in the weather. One of my favorite sites for weather in my area is westwind.ch [westwind.ch] which has a lot of good stuff, and of course the good ol' Met Office [metoffice.co.uk] aviation weather service. When in the United States, I tend to use the NOAA's ADDS [noaa.gov] service.

  • Programing for dummies (Score:4, Funny)

    by KillerCow ( 213458 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:05PM (#7654497)
    Yes, there are a zillion sites that already have the finished forecast, but this is Slashdot. We don't need no stinkin' forecasters!

    Find a problem that has already been solved, and re-solve it.

  • On this note, but something completely different.. (Score:3, Interesting)

    by cshuttle ( 613776 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:08PM (#7654509)
    Since I was real little, I'd always been interested in the weather and forecasting and all that stuff. Now that toasters and other such standalone devices are becoming so prevalent, I'm looking for the simplest thing that apparently doesn't exist:

    How about an 802.11 weather station?

    I'm just looking for something that sits outside my house, collects weather data and other such simple stuff, and relays that data back to a server to build a web page with or whatever.

    True, there are some devices like this available, but they all require a dedicated machine to log the data, and some really hard work to make them operate properly over a network (why would I possibly want a 1-wire data transmission solution, or even phone-line communication when I've got 802.11 right here?)

    Have I simply missed the magic google search that has the toaster I'm looking for?

  • Lorenz Equations (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Stranger4U ( 153613 )
    I wonder what relationship (if any) exists between current weather models and the ones created by Lorenz back in the '60s. Those simple equations can produce some very chaotic behavior, and were the influence for the infamous "butterfly effect."

  • This is silly. (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    "It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill."

    I hate to cast a damp towel on this, but personally, I find this is to be silly self-promotional drivel. What Weather forecasters won't tell you is that anything beyond a 3-5 day forecast is just a guess. Their accuracy rates beyond this period go down below 50%; which means that flipping a coin is more accurate. What's more, there have been little changes in improving this accuracy over the past 3

    • Re:This is silly. (Score:5, Informative)

      by azaris ( 699901 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:28PM (#7654623) Journal

      "It's a great job... a magnificent physics puzzle, solvable with high level math and some acquired skill."

      I hate to cast a damp towel on this, but personally, I find this is to be silly self-promotional drivel. What Weather forecasters won't tell you is that anything beyond a 3-5 day forecast is just a guess.

      So what? There are a lot of fields in science where most of our knowledge is about making accurate guesses and then seeing how well they fit the reality. It's not just about weather, the same tools can then be used on other complicated dynamic systems.

      Their accuracy rates beyond this period go down below 50%; which means that flipping a coin is more accurate.

      Really? I'd hardly call predicting the weather a simple case of true-or-false. Otherwise they could simply always give the exact opposite result that the complicated computer simulation gives and arrive at over 50% accuracy.

      Though there are some places (like Ireland, I've heard tell) where simply predicting rain every day will be correct 80% of the time.

      You are better off saving your CPU cycles for something more valuable, like Primenet (www.mersenne.org), IMHO.

      Computer scientists and their everlasting silly infatuation with primes... There are other important research areas, you know.


      • Really? I'd hardly call predicting the weather a simple case of true-or-false.

        This is what I want out of a weather forecast - will detectable precipitation fall from the sky within a mile of my house in the next 24 hrs? A simple boolean question. I don't care if it's a millimeter or a foot - precip/no precip.

  • Lookit (Score:3, Insightful)

    by UtilityFog ( 654576 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:13PM (#7654543) Homepage
    One of the best pattern-detection and analysis systems out there is still the human visual cortex -- watch the radar for your area consistently and you'll soon start getting a feeling for what is going to happen next. Wunderground's regional is about the right size.
  • Forecasting the weather is all about the quasi-geostrophic theory (or semi-geostrophic theory if you're in graduate school).
    QG Theory tells us were there will be differential vorticity advection through a layer or differential temperature advection through a layer (dT/dz increases with height) there will be height falls and omega (vertical advection term) will be negative thus rising motion.

    So next time you feel like insulting your local meteorologist and state its a job where they are paid to be wrong

  • Twain on Weather (Score:3, Funny)

    by handy_vandal ( 606174 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @02:24PM (#7654599) Homepage Journal
    "If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait five minutes."

    - Mark Twain
    • "If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait five minutes."

      I think you can generalize this to replace the token "New England" with pretty much any place you like. It seems that no matter where you go, people will say that very same thing (inserting their own state or location). And for some reason, they will think that their words are original and insightful.
      • I think you can generalize this to replace the token "New England" with pretty much any place you like. It seems that no matter where you go, people will say that very same thing (inserting their own state or location).

        Sometimes true, but not always. Some places have highly volatile weather (e.g. New England). Other places have relatively stable weather (e.g. Antarctica). Degree of variability varies from place to place.

  • Confused (Score:2, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Slashdot makes no sense whatsoever. People are always bringing up beowulf clusters when they don't apply. Now we have a topic where they are used all over the place, and no mention.

  • You know what they say about... (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 07, 2003 @03:07PM (#7654809)
    weathermen and economists. They can have long successful careers without ever being right.

  • Huh? (Score:2, Funny)

    by drix ( 4602 )
    solvable with high level math and some acquired skill.

    Solvable? I don't know what high level math you've been smoking, but in my math classes, a problem is solvable when it can, you know, be solved. So kindly tell me what the weather will be in Raleigh, North Carolina on September 16, 2028, and I will stop implying that you're a buffoon. Probably a smarmy one, at that, if you're like all those goddamn weathermen on TV.

  • Here a recipe for a cheap weather station. (Score:5, Informative)

    by smartin ( 942 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @03:19PM (#7654858)
    1. One Wire Weather station from AAG [aagelectronica.com].
    2. Excellent free software [sourceforge.net] to run it.
    3. gnuplot [gnuplot.info] to plot the results [vanderfleet-martin.net].
    4. Post the information to The Weather Underground [wunderground.com]

    • Re:Here a recipe for a cheap weather station. (Score:4, Informative)

      by citking ( 551907 ) * <`ten.gniktic' `ta' `yaj'> on Sunday December 07, 2003 @06:58PM (#7656120) Homepage
      Weather Underground [wunderground.com] is an amazing site, full of historical information, severe weather reports [wunderground.com], and scientific explanations of the forecast. If you are a regular visitor to the site, you'll notice that the people behind the site are always updating and tweaking things to work better and to provide more features. For $5/year you get the ad-free version (or just grab Firebird if you are stingy) along with unlimited radar access and other goodies.

      I've begun using their site over weather.com because the radars on The Weather Channel's site are not updated as often as Weather Underground's, and their site seems to be completely built around advertising, making it hard to find severe weather information and damage reports.

      One last thing I like about Weather Underground is its speed. Radars load quickly, my favorites are stored easily, and (at least for subscribers) the layout is impeccable, utilizing a Google-like whitespace rather than cramming sensory overload everywhere.

      Kudos to the team [wunderground.com] at Weather Underground!

  • Any one know how to build a dopler radar?
  • If short-time models can be so different, I wonder how much long-term models can differ, i.e. those that predict a 5 degree warming within 50 years.

  • The low tech wind gauge, very reliable. (Score:5, Funny)

    by Bob Bitchen ( 147646 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @03:35PM (#7654926) Homepage
    wind sock [wyomingfishing.net]

  • Long Term Forecasting (Score:4, Informative)

    by sjbrown ( 9382 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @03:39PM (#7654944) Homepage
    Here are some links for the Earth Simulator -- an attempt to model the entirety of the planet's weather systems.


    Official Site [jamstec.go.jp]

    Short Blurb from Time Magazine [time.com]

    [nec.com]
    Descriptive Article (with pictures)

    Details Regarding its Supercomputer Status [top500.org]

  • APRS: Also a Mobile Weather Data network (Score:3, Interesting)

    by ivi ( 126837 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @03:52PM (#7655041)
    I didn't notice any posts on APRS, the Amateur Radio based position reporting system, which has been used for years to connect & exchange data between mobile, fixed & Internet based sites, including weather data.

    The advantage of APRS, even for unlicensed receive-only users, is reception range that by far exceeds that of Wireless Networks (other than, say, 1-way satellite-based Internet connections).

    APRS data flows both over VHF/UHF repeaters and from one (RF-based & licensed, ie transmit-capable) APRS station to another.

    An APRS shareware (from the UK) that
    handles weather data - as well as messages
    & position data - is here:

    http://www.UI-View.com

    There is an excellent introductory site & White Paper on APRS here:

    http://vk6.aprs.net.au

    You can grab the white paper from here:

    http://vk6.aprs.net.au/ukaprswp.pdf

    The APRS creator's intro, et al. is here:

    http://web.usna.navy.mil/~bruninga/aprs.html

    Now that an Amateur Radio license is easier
    than ever to get, we should all have one (&
    some RF-based voice comms going as we surf,
    ie the way that doesn't eat into our 'net
    bandwidth, ie via Ham Radio...

    with an APRS-connected weather station on
    the side, and - when we're mobile (on land,
    in the air or on sea - a GPS connected,
    so we can be tracked/contacted & even found
    in the unlikely even that we get lost. ;-)

    Oh, and the speech-enabled Linux-based
    GPS-driven, "moving-map" program from Austria - GpsDrive - will help preclude our getting lost
    in the first place. (AFAIK, it's not APRS-
    enabled... yet, but it lets [WiFi-connected]
    near neighbors see each other's positions,
    I understand).
  • Well, this weather in N.E. is having fun with me ;-) I'm "stranded" in sunny Las Vegas for two more days... sigh. I guess I'll have to go find some more desert to explore.... If you come to this area, I recommend Lake Mead. This is the lake created by the Hoover Dam, and is currently at drought levels, but still cool to explore. The area is filled with amazingly cool rocks and some stunning scenery.
  • I know this is slightly off topic so mod it as such if you must. It is really nice to this kind of article posted on /. This was the first one in a long time that I actually bookmarked. Great replies and a nice bunch of info in the related links. All in all this is the kind of stuff that I love to see on /. Thanks :)

    btw. props to ctwxman for the nice submission!

  • Close, but no cigar (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Jerry ( 6400 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @09:29PM (#7656868)
    As Dr Lorenz demonstrated in 1963, long range weather forecasting to any degree of accuracy is doomed to failure, even using several different mathematical models. Even accurate predictions no farther out than 5 days are limited to wind directions, barometric pressures, and the high and low temperatures. Precipitation, like thunderstorms, is 'predicted' in terms of percent probability that your area will get rained on, but even 0% or 100% predictions have often failed. Five years ago, on Oct 14th, none of the 14 inches of heavy wet snow we received was predicted. It downed over 50,000 trees in the city. Our award winning meteorologist spends about half of each broadcast, following a weather event, apologizing for mis-forecasting the previous day's weather. As Dr. Lorenz pointed out, the various runs of the model 'look similar' but that's not the same as a prediction, nor proof that the weather will even obey the model, regardless of what the model says.


    Weather prediction is a standing joke. You are use to it. I am used to it. That's about best that can be done, despite all the high powered computers, mathematical models and and their theories. That's the nature of Chaos. Even when a thunderstorm is raging in the next county and heading in your direction there is no model that will predict if and when it will arrive. The 'meteorologists' at most TV stations use composite radar to 'predict' where storms are heading and when they will get there, and they make their predictions only minutes before hand, not hours or days, weeks or months ahead. I find that I can do exactly the same for the Lincoln area, with exactly the same accuracy, using the Omaha composite radar at www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.koax.shtml


    The best predictor for bad weather on the NOAA website I gave is the one-hour rain loop. But even when it shows a steadily advancing area of wetness, the "Great Wall of Lincoln" has unpredictable effects in diverting or suppressing rainfall. Ditto for snow and tornadoes.


    The really arrogant folks are those who use models to predict global weather 50 years from now, even when they limit their 'predictions' to general high temperature 'averages' for regions like North America or Africa. Such dire 'Global Warming' predictions are fueled not by valid math models, because none exist, but by their political agenda. Those kinds of 'predictions' can only be classed as flagrant propaganda, and people willing to fabricate 'scientific' evidence for their political agendas scare me, just as much as folks who pass laws destroying my Constitutional Rights, while claiming to protect those freedoms from the actions of terrorists. They are from the same mold.


    Here is a nice java applet demonstrating the Lorenz Attractor.
    http://www.exploratorium.edu/complexit y/java/loren z.html

    • You're right that our accuracy goes down as we go farther into the future, but even having a small amount of additional insight into wind directions, barometric pressures, and the high and low temperatures is incredibly valuable. People live the weather in realtime. The fact that it was nice yesterday makes little or no difference if it's rotten today. But, some businesses and industries greatly benefit from knowing how and when to order and plan based on the coming weather. I actually present an 8 day

  • I can see it now (Score:3, Funny)

    by lone_marauder ( 642787 ) on Sunday December 07, 2003 @11:30PM (#7657382)
    There are programs available to allow you to run your own model, specifying the domain, grid spacing, time interval, etc.

    I have to admit, that is WAY cooler than creating a tornado in SimCity. The only way these tools could possibly come to good use among the slashdot crowd is in the area of theoretical knowledge relating to city-destroying superstorms.

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