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Space Science

Keeper of the Objects 144

Posted by michael from the wipeout dept.
cEnTiBeE writes that this is "not about the Matrix," but rather about Near Earth Object tracking. "It's accomplished by a staff of 2.5 people watching to see when any 'vermin of the sky' plan to pay earth a visit. This piece titled Keeper of the Objects is in the August '03 issue of Scientific American."
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Keeper of the Objects More

Keeper of the Objects

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  • We should get Ben Afleck and Bruce Willis and some nukes together. You know... in case we need to blow them up... or I mean... the astroid. :-P
    • ...Will Smith and Jeff Goldblum; together they can use a mac powerbook to write a virus that affects even alien asteroid computers, and then use it to spy on the asteroid's built-in doomsday clock. When the asteroid's internal macintosh powered countdown reaches almost zero (of course it's measured in seconds) we then can sick Afleck and Willis on it with a tactical nuke. The world is safe! And we don't need to involve any other Neo's at all. (That would just be ridiculous)

  • How many people? (Score:5, Funny)

    by Eric_Cartman_South_P ( 594330 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:12PM (#6507139)
    It's accomplished by a staff of 2.5 people...

    2 and a half people? Cool. I wonder what the midget does.

  • 2.5 people? (Score:3, Funny)

    by Exiler ( 589908 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:15PM (#6507157)
    Which extra half do they use, and for WHAT?!

  • Let's count together (Score:3, Funny)

    by PaulK ( 85154 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:16PM (#6507161)
    Let's see...
    1....

    2....

    3...George! Watch out for that...(splat)...nevermind.

    2.5

  • The scary asteroids. (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:16PM (#6507167)

    The scary ones are where the scientists watch them for a week, and only see the size grow, with no apparent movement across the sky.

  • Short Staffed (Score:5, Insightful)

    by PktLoss ( 647983 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:19PM (#6507184) Homepage Journal
    If only they got 1/10th of the budget of the hollywood films.

    There are only a few things that hollywood does get right with respect to science, and this in particular.

    1. We are presumably now at the first time in history that something could be done to avoid such a cataclysimic event.
    2. Early detection is the key, It is far easier to deflect something millions of miles away, than it is when it is 4 minutes from impact.

    I would place the protection of our planet from those things that would kill us all, as far more important than ensuring people didnt cheat on their taxes, and arn't sneaking booze in on the airplane, but, I dont choose where the tax dollars go... yet.
    • I'd place the protection of our planet far above infighting which undermines funding:

      "There's a lot of infighting in this business. Not everybody likes everybody," [Marsden] says.

      Can't help wondering what's going on when they only get $130K of a total $3.5 million funding from NASA for asteriod searches.

      • Re:Short Staffed (Score:1, Interesting)

        by Anonymous Coward
        The ability to track Near Earth Objects means the ability to track MAN MADE Near Earth Objects. Like Military Satellites including weapons platforms.

        Guess what, the military don't like the idea of the civilian public they are "protecting" being able to do that.

    • Re:Short Staffed (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Halcy0n ( 267641 )
      It seems that things like this are like science fiction to many and are not taken seriously. This is a subject that should be taken more seriously and given some true thought. It shouldn't be left on the back burner until we find something of danger. Governments and people always miss where the true danger lies though, and focus too much on little things.
    • Maybe Bush could create the Department of Asteroid Terrorism Awareness, or DATA for short. :^)

    • >It is far easier to deflect something millions of miles away, than it is when it is 4 minutes from impact.

      Not as dramatic though. Heck, we could shoot Pvt Jessica Lynch up there, and that would guarantee an intervention.

    • > ... something millions of miles away, than it is when it is 4 minutes from impact.

      At 1/4 light speed that is nearly the same thing :-)

      Regard, Peter Pedant

  • From what i heard (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:23PM (#6507215)


    There are only 2 staff because the sacked the entire department previously, NASA begrudge handing over money to this project and has consistantly thought that the object tracking was not an important cause worthy of a whole research department (even though there are billions of objects that will cause serious damage to a sat if they are struck by it, then you have even more junk)

    maybe when one lands in washington will they take it a bit more serious

    • Re:From what i heard (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Well we have seen what budget constraints does to the space shuttle. Foam hit it and NASA knew about it.
      • Why on earth is this moderated funny? Insightful maybe, but I don't think he was trying to be funny. The foam hitting the shuttle was a KNOWN PROBLEM and had been for YEARS, and yet nothing was done about it because it was deemed an "acceptable risk". Why was it deemed acceptable? Because it hadn't caused appreciable damage before. This is like driving drunk without a seat belt through a school zone every day and thinking you're safe because you haven't killed anyone yet.

        The lack of budget and the cul
    • /sarcasm

      Yeah, Washington DC.

      There'd be a huge nationwide security alert.

      All military forces (those not in the gulf) on top alert.

      Then there'd be a standdown (hopefully) once they figured out what really happened.

      Then there'd be something akin to the Patriot Act, but directed toward easy access to space, and stopping it from happening again.

      Then.....

      ????

      DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT PROFIT, IT'D BE GOVERNMENT RUN.

      sigh

      SB
    • A dead G.W. and more money for science in one fell swoop. That will be a happy day.

    • It'll happen the first time a small one actually hits a city. There have been at least three small asteriod strikes that impacted Earth in the past 100 years with the energy equivalent of a nuclear weapon. All three happened to hit in unpopulated areas...

  • Too bad... (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:33PM (#6507269)
    ...this program wasn't in place when CowboyNeal was approaching earth.

  • Mmm, delicious hamburgers (Score:3, Funny)

    by AntiOrganic ( 650691 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:36PM (#6507292) Homepage
    Dude! Look at the picture! It's Dave Thomas!

  • McDonald's comparison (Score:5, Funny)

    by xihr ( 556141 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @08:40PM (#6507325) Homepage
    Remember, the total number of people involved in watching the skies for potential Earth impactors is fewer than the staff of one shift of a modest McDonald's restaurant.
  • This seems like business as usual for astronomy.. why does it merit a story?
    • This seems like business as usual for astronomy.. why does it merit a story?

      Because as long as we have all our eggs in one basket, the people who watch the hail falling around our basket should get some recognition?

      When Earth is just another of the human planets then it will be more reasonable for its news coverage to only appear in the Obituaries section.

    • Because when the planet killer starts to light up the sky, in the few remaining seconds/minutes/hours/days/months of our life, we can say "Why oh why didn't we give some more money to these guys instead of paying $70 billion [costofwar.com] so that Haliburton could build some more oil pipelines?"
  • "we have to do more than the dinosaurs."

    I'm glad this guy has a good grasp on the subject, since most people don't seem to realize asteroids probably represent the most immediate threat of extinction to the human species. He should exaggerate a few more threats, so that someone actually starts contributing money to finding out ways to prevent the impact of an asteroid. All current /.ers will be dead by the time a big asteroid probably hits, but we should still have a plan.

    • Dinosaurs lived for 160 million years (Score:1, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Or something like that, anyway.

      It's going to be a helluva lot harder to do more than that.

    • I'm not sure it represents "the most immediate threat of extinction to the human species" given that there are a whole lot of baddies that seem hell bent on sending humanity to /dev/null. But it IS a certainty in the long run unless we develop the technology to prevent it.

      Wouldn't it be nice if more people worried about asteroids slamming into earth than stealing others peoples land (settlers) or killing the totally innocent (Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade) An external threat could do wonders to bring people to

    • At least there are a lot of "crazy scientists" working on it.

      (from the perspective of a lot of the government, and a large majority of the people, that's what it looks like).

      The real question is: Will all this work be remembered when it happens (it will, Tunguska, etc)???

      SB
    • I would guess those with enough money already have their own plans.

      I can't afford a nuclear bunker so I'll make do with a tinfoil hat and my "duck n cover" leaflet.
    • Although this is a significant threat (worth spending more money than we do on), the larger immediate threat to the human species is the human species itself...

      We seem to be smarter than the dinosaurs were. We've developed nuclear weapons, a functional understanding of genetics (biological weapons) and are working on nano-technology. Any one of these, if used maliciously, could end the species.

    • Yeah we should likely invest in a big program to protect the planet... like a giant shield emitter.

      Okay so I play too much Moo3.... :P

  • people :| (Score:2, Funny)

    by atari2600 ( 545988 )
    We see them :) yeah we see them

    Observer1: How many people do you see there?
    Observer2: 2.5
    Observer1: I think i see almost three - what do you mean 2.5?
    Observer2: Yeah i see 2.5 - Saddam, Uday and Qusay - one of them has his head in another's ass
    Observer1: Oh!

  • Besides USA (Score:5, Interesting)

    by kannibal_klown ( 531544 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @09:42PM (#6507743)
    Could someone please enlighten me? I hear a lot about NASA and how our budget for monitoring dangerous objects has been way too low.

    Are other countries partaking in this? I know we're not the only ones with a space program, and I've BEEN to observatories across the globe. Yet in all of these stories, I never read about a comparison between us and, let's say, France.

    Are there any other countries that make it a point to monitor the skies for this stuff? How do their budgets compare to ours? I'm not saying "Go USA," I'm actually curious.

    Seriously, any information would be appreciated.

    • Re:Besides USA (Score:2, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Well, just to bore everyone with more news from Australia: Not us.

      Our ever-so-enlightened-and technically-aware government killed all funding for this kind of thing. Plus, one of our optical telescopes, Mt Stromlo, recently burned down (at least its going to be rebuilt).

      Unfortunately, ours was the only program of its type in the southern hemisphere (according to the press; I hope that's not true though).

      Keep watching the skies...you never know when you might need to duck.
    • Australia used have such a program until the government cut the budget [tpgi.com.au]. So we had better hope that any planet killer doesn't approach from the south, unless South Africa or Argentina have a spaceguard project.

    • There's a Liberal Democrat MP here in the UK who has been trying, on behalf of his party, to interest the powers that be in showing some concern over this matter.

      Unfortunately, the fact that his name is Lembit Opik means that in the Palace of Westminster, Fleet Street and BBC Television Centre, he is usually referred to as "Anagram".

      As he's the only person going on about this, all serious debate is lost in the laughter surrounding his nickname.

    • Basically, No. There is some work being done; but, usually under the auspices of other projects... (no official funding)

      once a smaller object hits a major city, people will become interested. There have been at least two or three in the past century (that we know of) which impacted with the force of a (smaller) nuclear weapon. All struck in uninhabited areas...

    • A special thanks to everyone that responded.

      It's a little worry-some that the world doesn't take this threat too seriously. One would think that we'd pool our resources and make more of a collaborative effort across the globe to prevent such a catastrophe. I'm not saying each country spend ludicrous amounts of money, but maybe set up an observation post with a couple of people

      Like another poster said, it'll probably take a populated area getting hit to make us realize the importance of such monitoring.
    • let's say, France

      If we detected an asteroid on a collision course France would say that's evidence the inspection process is working and we should continue inspections rather than use force.

      To avoid getting flamed I'll make a second joke with an opposite spin:

      let's say, England

      If the US claims it has secret evidence that the asteroid is planning to hit Earth England will be right there at America's side to help liberate any oil it might have.

      -

  • Actual Frequency of Impact (Score:5, Informative)

    by thelandp ( 632129 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @09:53PM (#6507836)
    There's a relationship between asteroid size and predicted frequency of impact.

    10m - every 1-5 years

    100m - every 1000 years

    1km - every 100,000 years

    The Tunguska blast of 1908 was a roughly 100m asteroid, hitting land.
    If it had been an ocean impact, it would have produced significant tsunamis.
    On the remote chance it had landed right on top of a large city, then the city would be completely gone.

    A 1km asteroid would wipe out a moderate US state, or create tsunamis that travel to most of the globe. Either way it would affect the climate due to dust clouds.

    The observational population census for Earth crossing objects is only complete for objects in the 8-kilometre diameter range (such as 1627 Ivor) or larger. The detection completeness for 1 kilometre range is estimated to be in the region of 12%.

    (further reading is here [spaceguardindia.com])

    Maybe it's worthwhile upping the budget so we can track all of them down to 1km ?

    • Re:Actual Frequency of Impact (Score:5, Informative)

      by bravehamster ( 44836 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @10:44PM (#6508183) Homepage Journal
      The Tunguska blast of 1908 was a roughly 100m asteroid, hitting land.

      Kinda a' nitpick, but the Tunguska object didn't hit land, it was an air-burst. That's the reason there isn't a huge crater there now. It flattened all the trees for hundreds of square miles, but in the very center of the blast, no crater. Stumped a bunch of scientists for a good long while. Air-burst detonations have a larger area of immediate effect (i.e. flattened by the blast wave), but their global effect is less than ones that actually impact. Either way you get lots of knocked over trees and some pretty sunsets.
      • Recent analysis shows that the smaller ( 250m) silicate based (rocky) asteriods will airburst. It would have to be pretty damn big to survive hitting the surface. Iron asteriods will almost always survive to impact. Fortunately, the iron asteriods are the minority.
    • Monitoring sounds like a good idea but if you can't do anything about it, it is kind of useless.

      The first step should be determining whether those "frequency of impact by size" numbers are accurate and what the distribution of of impacts are - in terms of frequency and mass. One doesn't need to monitor all (dangerous) sizes for this estimate.

      The second thing should be deciding whether the estimated risk merit development of technology to deflect asteroids.

      Only after the technology is developed it makes

    • Careful now. How about talking in terms of the probability of an impact tomorrow (hint: it's the same as the probability of an impact on any given day, including on a day when another rock drops), not in terms of the duration between impacts. Politicians are easily confused, especially around budget time, and might very well think that we're safe for the next X years.

    • Re:Actual Frequency of Impact (Score:4, Informative)

      by mikerich ( 120257 ) on Wednesday July 23, 2003 @11:36AM (#6512384)
      The Tunguska blast of 1908 was a roughly 100m asteroid, hitting land.

      It was at most 50 metres across and made largely of ice, it would never have made it to the surface.

      If it had been an ocean impact, it would have produced significant tsunamis.

      At 15 megatonnes it wouldn't have raised much more than a ripple. The US exploded larger bombs at sea level.

      The rest of your point is well taken though, although you left out one bit. Would Dubya, Putin or our little poodle in the UK wait to confirm the source of an explosion that took out one of their cities before launching a nuclear attack against their evil guy of the week?

      Best wishes,
      Mike.

  • Want To See Where They All Are? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by szyzyg ( 7313 ) on Tuesday July 22, 2003 @10:29PM (#6508092)
    Check out my NEO map from my astronomer days (before this whole interweb thing stole me away)
    http://szyzyg.arm.ac.uk/~spm/

    It works off the same data and basically plots all the positions every day.
  • i thought that there are 3.5 people working. 3 full time and 1 'Kyle Smalley' part time.

    vikrant narang
    ---
    In order to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe."
    -- Carl Sagan, Cosmos

  • (In Iraq, that is) is approaching $70 billion [costofwar.com] as I type. How much are we spending on finding, let alone planning to deal with, the real Weapon of Mass Destruction that the cosmos will - not might, will - lob at us sooner or later?

    I'm just picturing Stacey Implants on Fox whooping and flashing her brights because we've assassinated Saddam bin Laden's great grandkids and Saved Civilization Yet Again, just as the planet killer is nuzzling it's way inside lunar orbit. Shudder.

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