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Science

Studying Avalanches A Little Too Closely 31

Posted by timothy from the a-white-womb-with-white-curtains dept.
Makarand writes "ABC News has an interesting article about a Professor in Montana State University who is trying to perfect avalanche prediction techniques. He studies avalanches using the 'direct method,' i.e. he sets off an avalanche and puts himself right ahead of it so that he gets buried alive, a routine he has been doing for 20 years now. His goal is to be able to use data about the climate, mountain topography and snow microstructure in a model to forecast if we are prone to avalanche conditions."
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Studying Avalanches A Little Too Closely More

Studying Avalanches A Little Too Closely

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  • Before anyone says "Whoa, what and idiot!" or "heheheh *stupid snow-related joke* hehehe", I'd just like to say:

    "Thank you for saving the lives of people you'll probably never meet, and who will never know that it was you who saved them."

    I mean, come on - I just don't want this guy buried in an avalanche of negative comments. I mean, that might be like giving him the cold shoulder...

    Okay, I'm going to stop now. Just leave it at the "thanks for the life-saving stuff..."

  • Wow (Score:1, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Isn't natural selection supposed to take guys like this out of the gene pool?

    • Re:Wow (Score:1, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Well, going by Google, the guy isn't married, so there's still time for the snow to win.
  • Hey, I've been using this guy's 'direct method' with collapsing buildings. I'll have to go look this guy up to compare notes. ;)
  • then how can anything as far as climate and conditions affect any sort of out come to his study.... it could be bright and sunny or cold and over cast, or whatever, but if hes making these things then none of that matters as they will happen when ever, or am i missing something?
    • Well, if what the article said was accurate, you're not missing much as far as climate-related causes of avalanches. Basically, he said that if avalanches causing fatalities happen, they will most likely be caused by humans disturbing the snow cover, not because of natural conditions. He also said something about being able to predict almost all avalanches, check the article for details.

      As for the purpose of his study, it seems to be focused more on with how an avalanche moves once it's triggered than on the actual cause. However, unless I missed something, he didn't make it clear how that data would be of use to most people. Maybe it could be used to construct climbing gear better suited to protecting someone caught in an avalanche, who knows. At any rate, I hope this answers your question.
      • I suspect it is in part to help derive survival equipment - but not likely. In general the technique is to not be in the same place at the same time. If both of you have peepers then you better hope that your companion didn't get buried and can dig you out soon. Black Diamond's Avalung [bdel.com] will help a bit in that it keeps the snow in front of your mouth from freezing. That means you can continue to breath while buried. (You suffocate because your breath freezes the snow in front of you) But I can't see what this guy's actions can do to improve those sorts of technologies.

        More likely it is to just build up data on avalanche flow so backcountry skiers and climbers know what to predict. Any skier will dig pits and the like to get an idea of what is going on. This will possibly give even more information. In theory anyway - in practice I think the general knowledge is available right now. It is just that many want to go out in semi-safe or even unsafe conditions.

      • Well, if what the article said was accurate, you're not missing much as far as climate-related causes of avalanches.
        What is missing here is that the microstructure of the snow is studied prior to triggering the avalanche and then analyzing the flow characteristics. When you've found an avalanche exhibiting excellent flow, you've also found high-risk conditions for an unintentional trigger. In this regard, climate is absolutely related to avalanches as it is the weather prior to an event that creates snow conditions ripe for an avalanche to occur.
        Basically, he said that if avalanches causing fatalities happen, they will most likely be caused by humans disturbing the snow cover, not because of natural conditions.
        Correct, but it's the combination of disturbing the snow combined with the snow conditions that determines whether an avalanche will or will not happen. If you've got a beautiful bed of fresh, light powder snow from top to bottom, you're not likely to have an avalanche. Let's say, however, that you've had a 4-day period of mild temps that cause the snow to become rather granular. On the fifth day, you get 2 inches of heavy, wet snow at the head of a cold front moving in. The temps drop and the wet snow on top assumes a slab-like structure. This slab sitting atop a granular base is typical of spring avalanches. Dangerous stuff.
        However, unless I missed something, he didn't make it clear how that data would be of use to most people.
        Once you've established the snow conditions conducive to excellent flow characteristics, you can train people to avoid trigger areas in times of high-risk. A fair bit is known already, but there's still a long way to go before avalanche prediction is simple stuff.

  • Spam (Score:3, Funny)

    by fredrikj ( 629833 ) on Sunday December 08, 2002 @08:09AM (#4837176) Homepage
    he sets off an avalanche and puts himself right ahead of it so that he gets buried alive

    Sounds like studying spam by giving out your e-mail address in an EFNet warez channel...

    Or submitting a story with a link to the site you run off your DSL connection to Slashdot, and then trying to surf the 'net...
  • Somewhere, Charles Darwin is covering his face and crying
    • Although you do have to admit that this guy is a perfect future candidate for the Darwin award....
      • he gets buried alive, a routine he has been doing for 20 years now.
        Although you do have to admit that this guy is a perfect future candidate for the Darwin award....

        I don't know.. he's not doing something right.
        He's been trying for 20 years to bury himself -- I think a Darwin Award candidate would have gotten it right within a few times. A "perfect" candidate would have gotten it right after a few failures; success on the first try is less impressive.

  • Rule out the invariant (Score:4, Funny)

    by Hubert_Shrump ( 256081 ) <[cobranet] [at] [gmail.com]> on Sunday December 08, 2002 @11:18AM (#4837733) Journal
    As a serious scientist, I'm worried that having the same person buried again and again will skew the results of this study.

    I have a short list here that will help fix this otherwise wonderful experiment.

  • Having met the Prof in Question (Score:4, Informative)

    by gremlin_591002 ( 548935 ) on Sunday December 08, 2002 @11:53AM (#4837883) Journal
    The description of his activities are very misleading in the slashdot article. The ABC article is very much worth the read.

  • not so crazy (Score:2, Informative)

    by caffeine_monkey ( 576033 )
    if you actually read the abc story you'll find that he's not, as implied by the slashdot post, merely standing in the path of these avalanches wearing nothing but ski goggles and goretex. he's in a wooden bunker that's bolted to the bedrock and packed with instrumentation. this gives him not only live data from the basal layer of the avalanche, but an up-close experience that helps him interpret that data in a more insightful way. of course, you could probably accomplish the same by giving thermometers to a bunch of graduate students and telling them, "stand over there. no, not in the trees, out there on the slope. wait right there while i push this button."
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion

  • I'm sure this guy's watched that series a wee bit too much. But I support him completely for making science more fun. Imagine the number of snowboarder teens flocking to colleges to make a career of major spills. Maybe the scientific journal paper by this guy is signed "Awesome Dude". Envy of many PHDs I'm sure.
  • Less than half of 1 percent of all avalanche fatalities involve avalanche professionals.

    Considering that avalanche professionals are probably less than 1/1000th of 1 percent of the population, I think maybe I'll just get a job shuffling papers :)

    -

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