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Science

Instant Earth, Just Add Dust Particles 72

EvilSuggestions writes "Apparently, the estimate for how long it took for the Earth to form just got chopped in half. Now just a paltry 30 million years (which, IIRC, is less than one day on Carl Sagan's 1 year = the life of the universe calendar). So, adjust your terraforming plans appropriately. The good folks over at Science News have been following the gory details behind this conclusion."
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Instant Earth, Just Add Dust Particles

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  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 03, 2002 @12:06PM (#4189788)
    Only a few more divisions and they will be down to the 7 days.
  • Hmm. It does raise questions about the accuracy of radioactive dating. Does anyone know what methods are in place to prove the accuracy of such radioactive dating techniques?
    • I had a professor who was "older than dirt." We could ask him.
    • How does this raise any questions about radioactive dating? As far as I can tell, that's not even part of this conversation!
    • Re:accuracy? (Score:2, Interesting)

      by roachmotel3 ( 543872 )
      Further research on my part:

      From the article:
      Kleine suggests that in previous studies, researchers came up with formation times that were twice as long because they had less accurate determinations of the amount of tungsten-182 in meteorites.

      It has nothing to do with the accuracy of the radioactive dating, but rather the sampling techniques used in the original estimates.

      • Re:accuracy? (Score:2, Interesting)

        by a302b ( 585285 )
        I suppose I wasn't clear in my earlier post.

        I'm quite confident radioactive dating is very accurate in lab contitions. The amount of trace elements can be accurately determined, and based on the half-life, an age can be fairly accurately estimated.
        However, how accurate are field conditions? Minerals move and change over such a large period of time, so how does one know when one has a representative ratio of (say) tungsten-182 and hafnium-182? A you pointed out, it was the sampling techniques that were flawed in the original estimate. How does one show that the techniques used in this sample (and others) are accurate?
        • Re:accuracy? (Score:2, Interesting)

          by gi-tux ( 309771 )
          I have often wondered along this same line. How do we know that the ratio of (say) tungsten-182 and hafnium-182 is a constant? Or how do we know that the change in the speed of light [slashdot.org] didn't change the half-life of hafnium-182?

          I agree that in lab conditions the process works very well, but we are talking about very controlled testing. And even very controlled testing isn't perfect, as bugs are accidentally released with software, and consumer products aren't all hugh successes.

          Also, in the "real world" environment, how are they sure that there hasn't been a loss of one of the elements? A loss of tungsten-182 would make the time measurement be less as the ratio would be higher in favor of hafnium-182. And how do they know that the astroids that they used were not from a planet, moon, or something that didn't form a core? I seriously doubt that they can prove where that astroid came from.

          It seems to me that they are extending the scientific process over things that aren't controllable. The scientific process is susceptible to error when a lack of control is allowed to enter the experiment.

          • Depends on the foundations of the assumptions. Take C12/C14, for instance. Here we know that the C14/C12 ratio is NOT constant, because C12 is being turned into C14 all the time in the upper atmosphere, and that depends on the solar cycle and activity. Most likely things like the Maunder minimum would strongly affect C14 production, and thus the C12/C14 ratio over the Earth. This can be corrected for with other calibration techniques, of course, to get through isolated events like this.

            Here, it's much more likely that their assumptions are solid, as they're chemical in nature, rather than astrophysical: hafnium is bound in the mantle, tungsten is unbound. Since hafnium is bound, when tungsten forms, it's bound as well. As for loss, you'd lose both at the same rate, so the ratio should be fine (it'd be a proportional loss, rather than an absolute).

            As for the location of the asteroid, if it came from a core, it'd show other signatures of coming from a core. Cores are molten, so they form different alloys, and all that.

            And finally: ignore the whole "change in the speed of light" thing, or at least read up on it more closely. The current data (which is not convincing in the least: it's only 2 sigma from no change!) indicates less than a 1 part per million change over a good fraction of the life of the Universe. It's not important. It's probably not even true.
        • Re:accuracy? (Score:2, Informative)

          by cp99 ( 559733 )
          However, how accurate are field conditions? Minerals move and change over such a large period of time, so how does one know when one has a representative ratio of (say) tungsten-182 and hafnium-182? A you pointed out, it was the sampling techniques that were flawed in the original estimate. How does one show that the techniques used in this sample (and others) are accurate?

          There are several ways in which one can check the accuracy of radiodating in the field.

          For recent (on the historical timescale) events, one can compare radiodates with historical dates. For example, radiodating lava from Pompay gives the same date as what can be derived from Romen records).

          Another much more general method (as it doens't rely on other information), is compare radiodates of various techniques.

          For example, the Meteorite named Saint Severin was radiodated with Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr and Ar-Ar dating. If one isotope was migrating, then one dates optained would be off, if all of the isotopes were migrating, then all of the dates would be off (they would migrate at different speeds).

          We get the following results:

          Sm-Nd 4.55 +/- 0.33

          Rb-Sr 4.51 +/- 0.15

          Ar-Ar 4.43 +/- 0.04, 4.38 +/- 0.04, and 4.42 +/- 0.04

          However, that being said, many individual radiodates are heatly debated in the science lit., however, the accuracy of the technique as a whole is well established.
          • Actually according to G. Brent Dalrymple, a geologist with the USGS, there are a number of cases where radiometric dating was very far off. Not to mention the case of Mt. St. Helens, where rocks were taken from the newly formed lava dome and K-Ar dated. They were known to be roughly 8 years old (how long the dome had been forming). Yet the labs tested them and the youngest date was over 200,000 years (oldest test date was in the millions). Now yes many apologists will claim that this was due to excess Argon. Of course it had to be either excess Ar or depleted K, since this is a ratio measurement. And they'll mention that the rock selected must have either heated insufficiently to achieve full Ar bleedout, or that chunks of the rock were never liquified and therefore were pockets of ancient ratios.

            Certainly the explanation is some combination of those causes. However it does bring up a significant methodological question. Since cases where the age is known result in conclusively incorrect data, even if it can be explained, why should anyone accept as accurate rocks which are from an unknown time frame? The same explanations used to excuse the immensely incorrect ratios in known-age rocks could apply to rocks with an unknown history.

            Isn't it true that some of the methods have been falsified, and we should look for better tools?
            • Actually according to G. Brent Dalrymple, a geologist with the USGS, there are a number of cases where radiometric dating was very far off.

              And...

              Nobody denies that there are strange results, however, these occur when there is a result for the isotope compositions to be disturbed. For example, one of the early North American archeology sites is subjected to heated debate because of controversial dating due to possible carbon contamination.

              Not to mention the case of Mt. St. Helens, where rocks were taken from the newly formed lava dome and K-Ar dated. They were known to be roughly 8 years old (how long the dome had been forming). Yet the labs tested them and the youngest date was over 200,000 years (oldest test date was in the millions).

              Given that K-Ar dating has a lower limited on the age required for a accurate answer (which is much greater than 8 years), the person who submitted them to the labs for testing must have been either (a) clueless, or (b) only after propaganda. Not surprising that this comes out of the creationist world.

              Now yes many apologists will claim that this was due to excess Argon. Of course it had to be either excess Ar or depleted K, since this is a ratio measurement. And they'll mention that the rock selected must have either heated insufficiently to achieve full Ar bleedout, or that chunks of the rock were never liquified and therefore were pockets of ancient ratios.

              Which are all good reasons. Did Austin and co-workers perform Ar testing on the rocks like a geologist would? Or might that kill their little story?

              Certainly the explanation is some combination of those causes. However it does bring up a significant methodological question. Since cases where the age is known result in conclusively incorrect data, even if it can be explained, why should anyone accept as accurate rocks which are from an unknown time frame? The same explanations used to excuse the immensely incorrect ratios in known-age rocks could apply to rocks with an unknown history.

              Unlike creationists, geologists are extremely careful of the rocks which test. Radiodating is complex, and one must be careful in it's application.

              However, what the creationists are doing is the equilivent of the trying to measure a atom with a meter ruler, failing and them claiming that all measuring equipment doesn't work.

              Isn't it true that some of the methods have been falsified, and we should look for better tools?

              No, it's been abused not falsified. There is a massive difference.
              • You stated that
                Given that K-Ar dating has a lower limited on the age required for a accurate answer (which is much greater than 8 years), the person who submitted them to the labs for testing must have been either (a) clueless, or (b) only after propaganda. Not surprising that this comes out of the creationist world
                Sticking just to the facts, if the rocks being too young to be tested were the only problem, then ALL of the rocks should have had the same age - same K and Ar levels. But the age varied by a factor of greater than an order of magnitude. That's way too big to be called a reliable method. If I took a fever temperature reading on you, and it was 37C to 370C, you'd be either perfectly healthy or a glowing ember. Clearly my temperature measurement method would be condemned as completely useless. Why then accept +/- an order of magnitude in radiometric dating?
                Unlike creationists, geologists are extremely careful of the rocks which test. Radiodating is complex, and one must be careful in it's application
                Steve Austin has a Ph.D. in geology, so he is a geologist. If his philosphical belief is towards a young earth and that disqualifies him, then atheistic geologists with a belief in an old earth should be similarly disqualified by your criteria - or is balance a problem here?
                • Sticking just to the facts, if the rocks being too young to be tested were the only problem, then ALL of the rocks should have had the same age - same K and Ar levels. But the age varied by a factor of greater than an order of magnitude. That's way too big to be called a reliable method. If I took a fever temperature reading on you, and it was 37C to 370C, you'd be either perfectly healthy or a glowing ember. Clearly my temperature measurement method would be condemned as completely useless. Why then accept +/- an order of magnitude in radiometric dating?

                  It's a lot more complicated than what your making it out to be. Some rocks are good at certain types of radiodating, some rocks are good at other typers of radiodating, other rocks are just plain bad at it. It all depends on their makeup and history. This is well known in geology. Geologists are very careful in what rocks they date, and even then there is considerable debate about. That's science in action.

                  Sadly this allows some individuals with a ideological hangup to misrepresent it.

                  Steve Austin has a Ph.D. in geology, so he is a geologist. If his philosphical belief is towards a young earth and that disqualifies him, then atheistic geologists with a belief in an old earth should be similarly disqualified by your criteria - or is balance a problem here?

                  What's this about my "criteria"?

                  I've never told you what my criteria is, so could you not just make it up?

                  I have no problem with Austin believing in a young earth. If he was willing to present a honest case for it, I would respect that (and him, for giving it a go). However, he hasn't. Rather he only misrepresents a scientific technique in order to score cheap brownie points.

                  And given that Austin (plus all the other young earthers) disagree with pretty much all of modern geology, describing them as geologists would be a surefire way to lead to confusion.
                  • You stated your criteria twice now:
                    Unlike creationists, geologists are extremely careful of the rocks which test
                    and
                    Austin (plus all the other young earthers) disagree with pretty much all of modern geology, describing them as geologists would be a surefire way to lead to confusion
                    In both of those statements, you made sweeping generalizations, essentially ad hominem attacks on any person who interprets data differently than you do. There is a simple fact here: Steve Austin has a Ph.D. in geology. Are you demanding a further standard that he achieve in order to be called a geologist by you? Must he subscribe to a belief system you approve of? That certainly seems to be a reasonable interpretation of your twoposts on this thread.

                    You attack Dr. Austin, but have you read his thesis? Do you have a basis for attacking him other than his beliefs? Are you aware of the solid evidence he has put forward for a young earth? Have you considered the published articles (in Science and in Nature) by Gentry which show a rapidly-formed earth?
                    • Neither of those statements which I made are criteria.

                      Well I could see that the first could be a ad hominem (however, can you name a single radiodate from a young earther which is good enough to pass peer review - if not, my statement stands), the second one is not. Young earthers disagree with massive amounts of modern geology (age of earth, geological column, global flood etc), to call them by the same name would not only be confusing, but let young earthers ride off the reputation of mainstream science.

                      There is a simple fact here: Steve Austin has a Ph.D. in geology. Are you demanding a further standard that he achieve in order to be called a geologist by you? Must he subscribe to a belief system you approve of? That certainly seems to be a reasonable interpretation of your two posts on this thread.

                      Look, I know you've got a ideology to defend, and I know that many from the young earth community are masters of misleading quotations, and selective use of evidence, but your "reasonable interpretation" is pretty unreasonable given that in the very post to which you replied I stated "I have no problem with Austin believing in a young earth. If he was willing to present a honest case for it, I would respect that (and him, for giving it a go). However, he hasn't. Rather he only misrepresents a scientific technique in order to score cheap brownie points." That should make it pretty clear to anybody that Austin can follow whatever belief he wants to, I just want him to put forward a honest case for it. Not the deception he puts presents.

                      You attack Dr. Austin, but have you read his thesis?

                      No, but I have read some of the reports he has published. And given that I haven't attacked him on the quality of his thesis, rather the quality of his reports, I think that it's not unfair.

                      Do you have a basis for attacking him other than his beliefs?

                      His dishonesty.

                      Are you aware of the solid evidence he has put forward for a young earth?

                      Some of it, I dear say that there is more that I haven't seen, but I get skeptic about people who use misleading statements like him.

                      Have you considered the published articles (in Science and in Nature) by Gentry which show a rapidly-formed earth?

                      Irrelevent, but yes I have considered them.

                      Oh by the way, in which nature or science article does his rapidly formed earth conclusion appear. To my knowledge it actually works more like this: holes in rocks (peer reviewed) - one researcher concludes that they are due to Po (peer reviewed) - that same researcher concludes that this is evidence of a rapidly formed earth (not peer reviewed).
    • Re:accuracy? (Score:2, Informative)

      by Quelain ( 256623 )
      This might be what you're looking for:

      http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/isochron-dating.ht ml [talkorigins.org]

    • Look, radioactive dating is very simple:

      Boy meets girl. Girl fuses with boy. Girl discovers boy's fusing with best friend Kelly Marie. Girl splits from Boy, and becomes too dangerous to approach for about 30 million years. Sometime later, Girl files claim for fission byproduct support.
  • Crappy science (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Caractacus Potts ( 74726 ) on Tuesday September 03, 2002 @01:21PM (#4190340)
    Looks like Science News is going the way of Scientific American. Yet another magazine I used to admire is getting watered down for the masses.
    Let's see, two teams of researchers misusing the same radiodating technique get similar answers. Obviously, we can report that "researchers finally reach a consensus..." and state that the results are "clearly" definite.
    • Looks like Science News is going the way of Scientific American. Yet another magazine I used to admire is getting watered down for the masses.

      Science, Nature, and Physical Review Letters are in your local academic library. IMHO, it's better that a popular science journal "water down" the science a little and keep it accessible rather than have John and Jane Q. Public think that scientific research is not understandable and irrelevant to their lives.

  • by Amazing Quantum Man ( 458715 ) on Tuesday September 03, 2002 @04:24PM (#4191525) Homepage
    All we had to do was to ask Johnny!
    Well, let's see. First the earth cooled. And then the dinosaurs came, but they got too big and fat, so they all died and they turned into oil. And then the Arabs came and they bought Mercedes Benzes. And Prince Charles started wearing all of Lady Di's clothes. I couldn't believe it.

  • IIRC Pinkey and Brain did it in like one night.....

    Narf.....

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