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Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox 248

Posted by timothy from the breathe-carefully dept.
Stella Daily writes: "Had Jonathan Tucker's Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox been released just a few months ago, it might have been of interest only to a few outside of the world of epidemiology, but now that anthrax scares have reawakened public interest in biowarfare, it's hardly surprising that Scourge has been flying off the shelves." Read on for the rest of her review of this sobering non-fiction technothriller.
Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox
author Jonathan B. Tucker
pages 291
publisher Atlantic Monthly Press
rating 9
reviewer Stella Daily
ISBN 0-87113-830-1
summary The history and potential horrors of a vanquished killer

Tucker clearly wrote the book believing that the use of smallpox as a biological weapon was a worrisome, but not especially likely, threat, and on September 10th, most of us would not only have concurred, but would probably never have thought that such a thing could happen; after all, smallpox remains the only infectious disease to have been eradicated by humans. After reading Scourge, you will be grateful that the mysterious sender of anthrax-laced mail doesn't have the power of this infinitely worse pestilence in his or her hands.

The smallpox virus, or variola, is a biscuit-shaped bundle of DNA and protein casing, so tiny it can only be viewed with an electron microscope, yet devastating to the human body. The disease kills up to thirty percent of its victims and leaves the rest permanently scarred after battling fever, nausea, and boils so painful that thirsty patients often refused water, unable to swallow without excruciating hurt. Perhaps to be merciful, Tucker has included no photographs of suffering victims covered in the gruesome pustules of the disease, but should you have a morbid curiosity to see one, visit the Polio Eradication Photo Gallery.

Scourge is not a story about a virus, however; it is a story about people. Tucker tells of the history of smallpox and civilizations, how political machinations combined with idealism to bring about the global cooperation that removed smallpox from the earth, and the elaborate subterfuge used by the Soviet Union to hide its research on smallpox as a potential biological weapon. Fans of Laurie Garrett's (The Coming Plague, Betrayal of Trust) journalistic style will appreciate Tucker's treatment; the major figures in the history of smallpox are presented in terms of their personalities and personal struggles, rather than in simple obituary-style listings of what they did.

In describing the early history of the disease, Scourge is fascinating. You may have known that smallpox helped Hernando Cortes conquer the Aztecs in the sixteenth century, but perhaps you didn't know that smallpox may have been the Athenian epidemic Thucydides describes in his account of the Peloponnesian war. The superstitions that existed prior to the germ theory of disease - and, in some areas, long enough to hinder the last stages of the smallpox eradication campaign in the late 1970s - seem truly impossible now, but such was belief prior to the germ theory of disease.

The conquering of smallpox remains one of the great triumphs of mankind - the only infectious disease successfully eradicated by humans. The history of the eradication campaign is one of cooperation between nations and between scientists, but it is also a story of obstacles placed in the way by reluctant governments, the rapid spread of disease due to world travel, and the stubbornness of the superstitious. Here, you will meet such figures as D.A. Henderson, the reluctant leader of the World Health Organization campaign, and Viktor Zhdanov, the man who first proposed a global eradication campaign to the WHO in 1958, then, ironically, became the first chairman of the Soviet council that oversaw the secret biowarfare program beginning in the 1970s.

The clash between the traditional openness of the scientific community, where information is shared relatively freely, and the secretiveness of bureaucracies, where being in the know is a mark of power, is a recurring theme. Often, you'll find yourself rooting for the researchers, who frequently had to reason with government officials who knew nothing about science, but you may be surprised to find yourself agreeing with the government - specifically, the Department of Defense - a time or two.

The story of the Soviet Union's successful cover-up of its research into the use of smallpox as a biological weapon is unsettling, to say the least. Do you find the aftermath of a nuclear bomb impressive? Imagine that bomb followed by an ICBM bearing smallpox - a disease that kills nearly a third of its victims in a normal situation, but would be attacking survivors of a nuclear attack, whose immune systems would be severely compromised by radiation damage. Lest you think that earlier vaccinations might have helped, the smallpox vaccine is effective for only about ten years before revaccination is required, and the United States had stopped mandatory vaccinations long before the last known case of naturally occurring smallpox was diagnosed in 1978. Such a warhead was one of the foci of the Soviet program, even as facilities were carefully disguised so as to give the appearance of compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention treaty. Western governments did not learn of the full scope of the Soviet effort until 1989, and kept the information classified until former Soviet smallpox research scientist Ken Alibek (ne Kanatjan Alibekov) told the story to the American press in 1998.

Although, officially, the last remaining stores of variola virus are kept in Moscow and at the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta, Tucker raises the possibility that other governments - particularly Iraq - may have retained secret stores of smallpox virus, citing enough circumstantial evidence to keep his speculation from being easily discounted. He also brings up the possibility that a government might, to avoid the certain retaliation that would come from launching a smallpox attack, supply the virus to a group like al-Qaeda, then deny responsibility when the terrorists release the disease. Tucker finished documenting these speculations well before the September 11th attacks; now, one hopes they aren't prophetic.

In the case of smallpox, the truth is as morbidly fascinating as any fiction could possibly be, and Tucker tells the story of those who fought to end the scourge and those who would have preserved it as a weapon with equal aplomb, yet from the perspective of a world where smallpox was a piece of history and sophisticated biological attack a back-burner phenomenon. Now that fears of biological warfare are all too real, Scourge is exceptionally relevant - and hopefully not a prediction of what is to come.

You can purchase this book at Fatbrain.
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Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox More

Scourge: The Once and Future Threat of Smallpox

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  • biowar link-o-rama (Score:5, Informative)

    by wiredog ( 43288 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:37AM (#2574928) Journal
    The Specter of Biological Weapons
    Scientific American, Dec 1996
    http://www.sciam.com/1296issue/1296cole.html

    Living Terrors
    Living Terrors [amazon.com]

    by Michael T. OsterholmPh.D., former Minnesota State Epidemiologist, and John Schwartz, a science reporter for The Washington Post.

    Lays out scenarios for anthrax and smallpox, some history of biowar, why public health system needs to be restored.

    The Johns Hopkins University Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies:

    home [hopkins-biodefense.org]

    Smallpox [hopkins-biodefense.org]

    CDC reports on smallpox attack scenarios:
    The scenario [cdc.gov]

    Aftermath of a Hypothetical Smallpox Disaster

    Part Two [cdc.gov]

    CDC

    Home [cdc.gov]

    S,mallpox [cdc.gov]

    Picture [cdc.gov]

    Modeling Attacks [cdc.gov]

    Public Health Links:
    The Coming Plague [amazon.com]: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance

    by Laurie Garrett

    Covers emerging and re-emerging diseases such as HIV, Ebola, Tuberculosis, Smallpox.

    Betrayal of Trust : The Collapse of Global Public Health [amazon.com]

    by Laurie Garrett, Steven M. Wolinsky

    How the public health system, in USA and abroad, was allowed to disintegrate.

    And the Band Played On [amazon.com]: Politics, People, and the AIDS Epidemic

    by Randy Shilts

    A chronicle of the first 5 years of the aids epidemic.

    Richard Preston (Hot Zone author) on smallpox [cryptome.org]

  • And next... (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Orkin ( 61749 )
    Chicken soup books will start selling again because people are going to be scared of getting chicken pox.

    Sheesh! There's no more of a biological terror threat than there was 15 years ago. People are so paranoid.

    • Really? (Score:5, Informative)

      by jabbo ( 860 ) <jabboNO@SPAMyahoo.com> on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:53AM (#2575008)
      I guess we didn't bomb Iraq, Afghanistan, and Sudan in the last 15 years. Nor did $300M of Saudi inheritance and an organization devoted to the destruction of the USA (and by proxy, our Western allies) spring up. Right?

      The huge difference between an entity like the Soviet Union and a network like Al Qaeda is that, while the USSR was highly prepared and enamored of the will to power, the people holding the reins were not particularly interested in dying as a means of killing others. So while the cynical machinations of the Soviet power elite produced the finest weaponization programs for biowarfare yet seen, they were only intended for use as mop-up agents after a nuclear attack.

      The Islamic fundies (not particularly worse than Christian fundies or ultranationalist Israelis, just more prominent) that have taken center stage lately are perfectly willing to die for their cause, as long as they can kill a few unarmed women and children while they're at it. What better for the slaughter of innocents than an epidemic? It worked for Genghis Khan (cf. catapulting plague-ridden corpses into sieged cities). These are not conventional enemies and they are not limiting themselves to conventional warfare. Moreover, a network of semi-autonomous individuals without a distinct nationality, i.e., nothing to lose, is a much more elusive target than a static nation-state like Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan. So the consequences of being "caught" are also different.

      That, in conjunction with the underfunding and collapse of the public health systems around the world, is why I submit that a response to biowarfare is more crucial now than 15 years ago.

      And the rebuilding of a worldwide public health infrastructure would be a damn nice side effect of this new urgency, IMHO.
      • It is far more important that we, as the only superpower in the world, work NOT on additional countermeasures to combat terrorism and biological attacks, but on making such attacks irrelevant.

        You're absolutely right in pointing to our hopeless foreign policy as the instigator of this entire ordeal.

        If our military forces are used only in accordance with their constitutionally aligned duties, this paradigm would not exist, and terrorist attacks would be a non-issue.
      • while the USSR was highly prepared and enamored of the will to power, the people holding the reins were not particularly interested in dying as a means of killing others.


        Neither are the islamic terrorist leaders interested in dying. They use proxies for that.

        But it's exactly the fact that they are not nation-states which makes terrorists less dangerous, although difficult to eliminate. They don't have the expertise and resources that the late Soviet Union had. It's possible, but not very probable, that al Qaeda has smallpox viruses in their arsenal. But a nation like the US or Russia certainly could obtain such viruses. There must be someone who died from smallpox buried somewhere in conditions that keep the virus intact, for instance, in permanently frozen soil.

        And how would terrorists deliver the virus? A massive attack, with thousands of ICBMs carrying biological warheads might succeed in infecting a substantial percentage of a nation. Anything less could kill thousands, but not millions of people. Before an epidemic could spread, there would be massive efforts at vaccination and other containment measures. If they could ground all civilian aircraft in the USA for several days after a terrorist attack, the government could also implement effective means of disease control.

        And it might surprise you, but the public health system around the world has not "collapsed" in the last 15 years. It's exactly the opposite, without the cold war to deflect public funds to the military, spending in health infrastructure has increased in most countries.

      • The Islamic fundies (not particularly worse than Christian fundies or ultranationalist Israelis, just more prominent)...

        Oh really? And when was the last time you heard a Christian "fundie" advocating holy war, engaging in state-sponsored terrorism, and displaying the shocking lack of regard for human life exhibited by Al Queda?

        Your post is just an attempt to smear and inflame Christians and Jews. Keep in mind that the ONLY countries in the history of the world to permit free speech are those based on Christian priciples.

        Remember those Pilgrims we'll be thinking about this week? They were radical fundamentalist Christians who had the courage and guts to sail halfway around the world to a strange and dangerous land. They carved out a place where they could could worship and rule themselves as free men, and in doing so, changed the world tremendously for the better. We could do worse than to learn from those Puritans.

        (Those of you truly open-minded enough to consider the posiibility of "true truth" (as Francis Schaeffer put it) might consider reading some Jonathan Edwards [jonathanedwards.com] this week, in the spirit of the season...)
        • > They carved out a place where they could could worship and rule themselves as free men

          No, actually the Pilgrams carved out a place where they could run a theocracy that was harsher than anything in England but happened to agree with their religion.

          The principles of free speech come not from the Bible, but instead from the European Enlightenment - John Locke, et la. Note they are largely upheld in India and Japan, two other non-Christian nations.
          • The principles of free speech come not from the Bible, but instead from the European Enlightenment - John Locke, et la. Note they are largely upheld in India and Japan, two other non-Christian nations.

            I beg to differ. The prevailing attitude in Europe that made the enlightenment possible was itself directly caused by the Reformation. It was this event (the Reformation) that has shaped modern civilization perhaps more than any other in the past thousand years: As a result of the Reformation it was permissable to investigate all things in God's creation, as there was a new confidence (which has been well borne-out, by the way) that all truth validates Truth.

            India and Japan are decidedly mushy in thier support of free speech and other ideals of freedom. They have adopted them (although not entirely wholeheartedly) in an effort to become more Western and modern, but it is quite obvious that neither would have ever developed these ideas on thier own - in fact, they are two very old, mostly brutally ruled, cultures that never showed any significant inclination toward free ideals before they were colonized by the British. I think that kind of makes my point, not yours...
          • Oh, just for fun, I spent a bit of time digging up a reference from Locke that I remembered, but couldn't lay my hands on - I think after reading it you'll find that perhaps you don't agree with Locke quite so much as you thought:

            "Lastly, those are not at all to be tolerated who deny the being of God. Promises, covenants, and oaths, which are the bonds of human society, can have no hold upon an atheist. The taking away of God, though but even in thought, dissolves all; besides also, those that by their atheism undermine and destroy all religion, can have no pretence of religion whereupon to challenge the privilege of toleration." -John Locke,
            Essay on Toleration, 1685

            We are under no obligation to tolerate the intolerable. Even Locke knew that...

            You may not like it, but the freedoms that the United States brought to the world are inseparable from Christianity. Even George Washington recognized this, and thought it important enough to include as a warning in his famous (although rarely read in schools anymore, since it offends leftist sensibilities) Farewell Address:
            "Of all the dispositions and habits which lead to political prosperity, religion and morality are indispensable supports. In vain would that man claim the tribute of patriotism who should labor to subvert these great pillars of human happiness - these firmest props of the duties of men and citizens. The mere politician, equally with the pious man, ought to respect and to cherish them. A volume could not trace all their connections with private and public felicity. Let it simply be asked, Where is the security for property, for reputation, for life, if the sense of religious obligation desert the oaths which are the instruments of investigation in courts of justice? And let us with caution indulge the supposition that morality can be maintained without religion. Whatever may be conceded to the influence of refined education on minds of peculiar structure, reason and experience both forbid us to expect that national morality can prevail in exclusion of religious principle." -George Washington,
            Farewell Address, 1796

            Finally, if you really believe the tripe your professors evidently pushed (that the Founding Fathers were deists, unitarians, atheists, or worse) you're just showing your gullibility. Even a casual perusal of the original sources makes it quite clear to even the thickest reader that these men were deeply committed to the Christian God of the Bible, and that such belief shaped and molded thier every thought and action. If you don't believe me, start reading them for yourselves - not modern summaries of what they wrote, but their actual words. You'll find a group of very committed Christians, and their own words will make that quite apparent.
        • Oops, the phone rang and I forgot the final thought: Jonathan Edwards is especially timely here, because has been regarded by a great many historians as the most brilliant thinker in the history of North America. He had been president of Princeton for less than a year when he died at age 55 in 1757 as the result of a smallpox vaccination...

  • Demon in the Freezer (Score:5, Informative)

    by Exmet Paff Daxx ( 535601 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:38AM (#2574933) Homepage Journal
    The New Yorker's The Demon in the Freezer [cryptome.org] is mirrored at Cryptome, and is an excellent online read about smallpox; it takes about half an hour. And it is truly disturbing.

    If you only read a few parts, read two things:
    - the part where Russian scientists warn western observers that "your vaccines won't protect you" against the Soviet's new breed of smallpox.
    - the part about insect poxviruses, which turn caterpillars into pure crytstallized virus.

    Blech. I hope we have the courage as a nation to go ahead and make the vaccine, in mass quantities, the same way it used to be made. The main objection raised in the article is that "by today's standards" cow puss is an unacceptable vaccine. Hopefully "today's standards" are that life without a vaccine is unacceptable. But that's just my opinion.

    • Re:Demon in the Freezer (Score:4, Interesting)

      by hoggoth ( 414195 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @12:30PM (#2575229) Journal
      > Demon in the Freezer
      Excellent read! Terrifying stuff.

      The article talks a lot about delivery mechanisms, from ICBMS that explode smallpox in the air, to microchip based aerators that spray live smallpox into the air and could fill an airport in a few hours.

      But based on our recent experiences with suicide terrorists, has anyone thought about the simplest method of hiding, importing, and distributing the virus?

      A suicide terrorist could EAT the virus, and go on vacation in the US, visiting as many places as possible, breathing on as many people as possible.
      F*** this is scary! All he would have to do is visit a McDonalds in every big city!
      He would have two weeks before he shows symptoms.

      I almost hate even SAYING this, spreading the idea. But I'm sure they can think of it on their own.
      • Actualy there is much worse out there. Bacteria with an ID50(Infective Dose for 50% of the healthy adult population) of one organism, and untreated fatality rates approaching 95%. But the things that scare me the most are predominatly non-fatal, there are things that can happen to you that make dieing seem like a relief. More I won't say.
  • Slightly off topic, the anthrax attacks.

    Does anyone else wonder why they just seem to have stopped all of a sudden.

    Did the person(s) sending the letters run out of anthrax? Or perhaps was this just a first phase? Just a small scale experiment to see how a controlled release of antrax spreads.

    I just wish the whole small pox idea was never brought up. But I guess with this book having been released even before the initial attacks, the thought was on someone's mind. I just feel now every time someone talks about small pox being used in a biological attack it increases the chances of it happening (I guess I'm not helping any).
    • Slightly off topic, the anthrax attacks.


      Does anyone else wonder why they just seem to have stopped all of a sudden
      Just speculating: he ran out of material, or he killed himself by inhaling his own spores (given that the stuff was poured loose into envelopes.

      That whole episode had the mark of a fanatical loner, ala the Unabomber, from the beginning. And the FBI seems to be headed in that direction as well.

      sPh

    • http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011116/ts/attack s_anthrax_25.html [yahoo.com]

      They haven't stopped. They're probably just not wasting any anthrax; for as long as people are afraid, they're doing their job. People get confident about opening mail again? Send some more..

  • Whats really scary is that smallpox is so contagious that a single Al Qaida terrorist could infect himself and walk around in New York. He could potentialy infect thousands of people.

    • Re:Smallpox (Score:3, Insightful)

      by phamlen ( 304054 )
      It should be noted that a person with smallpox is not contagious until the person is showing symptoms. Therefore, a terrorist would have to have boils and rashes in order to be contagious - and therefore more likely to be identified as having smallpox. (In addition, dying in battle is different than dying a slow, agonizing death by smallpox - I think it would be harder to get martyrs to take smallpox.)

      In addition, the smallpox vaccine works extremely quickly - you can be vaccinated several days later (after having been exposed) and the vaccine will work. So, although the terrorist walking with smallpox is a threat, it's not the worst.

      Finally, smallpox is extremely hard to contain - so a terrorist spreading smallpox in NYC could easily end up infecting his own community (what with worldwide travel so available these days.)

      The "typhoid terrorist" scenario is certainly possible, but I think it is unlikely.
      • In addition, dying in battle is different than dying a slow, agonizing death by smallpox - I think it would be harder to get martyrs to take smallpox.

        True, but if you're going to martyr yourself anyway, you could always put a bullet in your head (or take poison, or have a buddy put the lights out for you, etc) after you've infected a critical mass of victims.

        the smallpox vaccine works extremely quickly

        Sure, if you want to assume that the smallpox you're vaccinating against is the same smallpox that is causing the outbreak. If the virus has been modified, the vaccine might not work...
  • You can thank the US government for its biological warfare research in the early 50's to late 60's for giving terrorists so many good ideas...

    I can see it now, millions die after infected musquitos unleashed on the US...

    BAH!
    • while you're at it.

      The use of biological agents in war is as old as war itself.

  • Fear and Unity (Score:4, Interesting)

    by under_score ( 65824 ) <mishkin.berteig@com> on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:44AM (#2574958) Homepage
    When I read something like this review, I experience twinges of fear. Smallpox sounds like it is truly terrible. And yet, somehow, we, the people of this world, did manage to get rid of it. For the future of the world, we need to recognize that we are one people first, and citizens of a nation second. This doesn't mean we all need to believe the same things, etc. This is about unity in diversity. And unity isn't abstract: its about action. Getting rid of smallpox was an example of unity in diversity. The people of the world got rid of it. Now, can we get rid of AIDS? Can we get rid of Malaria? What about our physical environment? What about nuclear weapons? What about poverty? These are things that can only be solved with unity of action.
    • smallpox isn't that bad, as has been posted before, its only contagious when symptoms are showing, etc etc.

      what really scares the bejeezus outta me is modified smallpox [vicnet.net.au].

      to summarize the article, some guys in australia discovered by genetically modifying mousepox (pretty weak, like chicken pox) that they could turn it into a far, far deadlier virus which was pretty much immune to vaccines (!).

      now, this kind of genetic modification isn't easy. but a vaccine-resistant strain of smallpox which kills somewhere up to 90% or so of people infected would really suck.

      then again, maybe such a modification wouldn't work on smallpox like it does for mousepox. i hope.


      • Anybody ever read Hotzone? The airborn version of ebola (Hemmoraghic fever) that was discovered in a washington suburb a decade ago LUCKILY only infected monkeys. Normally ebola infects both humans and monkeys, but luckily is only transmissible via contact with bodily fluids. An airborn version was discovered and since this disease is 90% fatal, if a strain is found that can infect humans and has the structure to live in aerosol form, would be FAR FAR worse then smallpox. Most people have no idea how close we came to global oblivion of over 90% of the human race during that infection at the monkey quarantine house. Scary stuff. Stephen King wrote that Hotzone was the scariest book he had ever read. Its terrifying. And all it would take is one guy to walk into an international airport with an airborn version of the virus. 36 hours later the world is in deep doo doo.

      • Re:ah, but its worse... (Score:3, Interesting)

        by meldroc ( 21783 )
        The Soviet Union created some ghastly genengineered diseases. Off the top of my head, they genengineered the smallpox virus by adding genes from the Marburg virus (similar to Ebola). The result was a virus nicknamed Blackpox or Ebolapox that is airbone & contagious like smallpox, but caused a nasty bleeding-out-your-pores hemorrhagic fever with a near 100% fatality rate like Ebola. They also added the gene for myelin (the coating around nerve cells) to a plague bacteria. Treatment is simple enough, give antibiotics, and the bacteria goes away. But when the immune system sees the myelin proteins in the bacteria, it attacks anything with myelin, such as nerve cells. The result is a multiple sclerosis type of illness that results in a lingering death.

  • Scary stuff (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Tsar ( 536185 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:45AM (#2574962) Homepage Journal
    From another site [canoe.ca] that mentions Tucker's work...
    How vulnerable are we? In June, a two-day simulation exercise called Dark Winter was held at Andrews Air Force Base in Washington, D.C. It began with a fictional scenario depicting a covert smallpox attack by Iraq that left 24 infected in Oklahoma. After an imaginary two weeks, decisions by the assembled politicians coupled with the quick exhaustion of the stockpiled vaccine would have resulted in 16,000 people infected in 25 states and 1,000 dead, 10 other countries reporting cases and the grim prediction that within three weeks there would be 300,000 victims, a third of whom would die.
    Very scary stuff. I think I'll sign up for that Mars mission [slashdot.org] now.

    • Re:Scary stuff (Score:2, Interesting)

      by fireduck ( 197000 )
      The Dark Winter scenario apparently was based on some screwy statistics regarding rates of infection. Steven Milloy of Junkscience [junkscience.com] fame wrote an editorial [foxnews.com] on the subject.

      Dark Winter assumed every infected person would infect 10 additional people. This was based on a couple of statistically abnormal infection events. A more reasonable infection rate of 2 people is what the CDC believes more likely. This obviously would reduce the catastrophic victims exponentially.
      • Seems to me like conducting a war game with a "worse than worst possible case scenario" is a pretty fucking good idea. That way, you aren't taken completely unawares when the enemy does something unexpected, like hijacking planes with pocket knives and crashing them into buildings.

        Oh. Scratch that last part.

  • coincidental... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by ravrazor ( 69324 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:45AM (#2574963)
    There was a episode of Nova about the very same topic last night on our local PBS affiliate. Quite disturbing, especially in regards to the experiments of the Soviet Union even after global treaties had been signed.
    The pictures of smallpox victims were even more disturbing.
    Check out the schedule [pbs.org], maybe it's on again, for those interested.
    • NOVA rocks my socks, tons of great educational and interesting programming alan alda also rocks for covering so many interesting things. You can tell he has a genuine interest in what he's doing.
  • That the US government is currently working on a program to vaccinate the entire population against smallpox and anthrax, and that they just aren't talking about it because they can't do it immediately, and talking about a program they can't carry out would only cause panic.

    But I doubt it. I am guessing the powers that be are hoping that the biowar threat has "calmed down" and that we are going "back to normal". In this scenario, mass vaccination won't be considered until after the next major outbreak, when it might be too late.

    We'll see.

    sPh

    • Re:We can only hope... (Score:4, Informative)

      by wiredog ( 43288 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:55AM (#2575016) Journal
      The government is working on stockpiling enough vaccine for the whole population, but they wouldn't vaccinate unless there were an outbreak. The vaccine can have nasty side-effects in some people, including brain damage, blindness, and death. Not many people, 1 in 250k,IIRC, but that would still be over 1,000 people injured by it if everyone were vaccinated. Those numbers, however, date from the days before AIDS, chemotherapy, and other things that suppress the immune system. It's a 'live virus' vaccine. Because of that it's one of the ones that's used when the danger of the vaccine is substantially less than the danger of the disease.
      • The vaccine can have nasty side-effects in some people, including brain damage, blindness, and death. Not many people, 1 in 250k,IIRC, but that would still be over 1,000 people injured by it if everyone were vaccinated.
        I as aware of those numbers and considered referencing them in my original post, but did not in the interest of brevity.

        Even the simplest decision tree analysis shows that the benefit from vaccinating far outweighs the potential side-effects.

        And yes, I have been vaccinated, and yes, I would be first in line with my 2 children, even knowing the risks.

        sPh

        • the benefit from vaccinating far outweighs the potential side-effects.

          That's true, if there is an outbreak. If there is not, then people are risking injury and death for no benefit.

          I was vaccinated twice, once in childhood and again in the Army, but the latter was 15 years ago. The vaccine does wear off after 10-20 years.

          • That's true, if there is an outbreak. If there is not, then people are risking injury and death for no benefit.
            Unlike cost/benefit analysis, which considers only what is known, decision tree analysis assigns probabilities to unknown events and computes a pseudo-"expected value" for various courses of action.

            You don't have to assign a very high probability of occurance to a biowar attack to get a result that says go ahead and vaccinate.

            Think about how many Congressional employees would volunteer for the Army's anthrax vaccine, even given what is known about its side effects to get a sense of the analysis that is required in this situation.

            sPh

        • Even the simplest decision tree analysis shows that the benefit from vaccinating far outweighs the potential side-effects.
          I'm not so sure that's the case. In order to have a good estimate of that, you need at least some probability of smallpox being released into the wild again, and I don't think there's a good way of assessing that. If that threat is zero, then you can do no good by vaccinating, only harm.

          Remember that these are also people, and people don't naturally think in terms of math when it comes to human lives. Another poster quoted an expected 300 deaths from vaccination. How many elected officials are going to accept that, and the possibility of the media uproar caused by that, on the chance that they might save a larger number from an almost unimaginable disaster? Particularly since, if the vaccinations are successful, you'll probably never hear much more about it. "Well, yeah, we killed 300 people, but if we hadn't the Evil Ones might have killed a bunch more" just doesn't sound bite well.

          I'm also curious whether there are any risks associated with vaccination. Others have mentioned that it's a live virus vaccine, so you're handing out to thousands of people syringes filled with the virus, hopefully rendered harmless. Does anyone know whether those can be weaponized into something harmful again? I have to admit that I don't know much about the technical side, but it seems like a vaccination could be a total PR disaster, even apart from promoting panic, while sitting on one's ass and saying "No, we're perfectly safe" and then being proven wrong, while possibly tragic, just doesn't hurt one's carreer the same way.

      • The government is working on stockpiling enough vaccine for the whole population

        My main concern is that there isn't a weaponized smallpox virus that has been bred to not respond to existing vaccines. In which case, existing vaccine products would be useless.
      • While that Nova or whatever show was on the other night, I dug out my old vaccination records, having found them a few months ago. It seems that I was given my four or five shots for smallpox over the period of a year or so, and the last one (in 1969) was stamped "Equivocal Reaction". No indications of what kind of reaction, but I have allergies to penicillin and aspirin, so maybe it was an allergic reaction.

    • Re:We can only hope... (Score:3, Informative)

      by Pedersen ( 46721 )
      The hope that you have is no hope for me, unfortunately. You see, I've never been given the smallpox vaccine, nor can I be. The allergic reaction would kill me. I have no idea how many other people there are like me in this country and the world, just that I'm one of them.

      Something almost amusing, though... Doctors will always ask if you're allergic to any medications, and I always respond "smallpox vaccine", and we both chuckle, because we know that I'm not likely to need it. Now, though... A story like this can cause genuine fear for me.

      • You see, I've never been given the smallpox vaccine, nor can I be. The allergic reaction would kill me. I have no idea how many other people there are like me in this country and the world, just that I'm one of them.
        Sorry.

        However, if the entire population less those not capable of receiving the vaccine were vaccinated, an epidemic wouldn't be able to spread through the population, so you would be much safer as well.

        sPh

      • How does one come to realize that one is allergic to the small pox vaccine?

        -E

    • Mmm, an anthrax vaccine... just like the one they gave our soldiers over in the Gulf War?

      I've read lots of reports tying that vaccine to the "mysterious" Gulf War Syndrome.

      Then there's the fact that the ONE company licensced by the gov't to produce an anthrax vaccine hasn't produced a single usable vaccine in almost two years, because their quality control is so poor it doesn't allow them to brew the same batch twice...

      I'd hope their being quiet because they've got something better planned, cause what I've heard so far isn't very promising.
      • Mmm, an anthrax vaccine... just like the one they gave our soldiers over in the Gulf War?


        I've read lots of reports tying that vaccine to the "mysterious" Gulf War Syndrome.
        If necessary, yes. Although there is some indication that the vaccine currently used for cattle may be better than the the one approved for humans (more protection with less side effect).

        But given what occured in Washington last month, yes, I would sign up for the current vaccine. A question that would need to be investigated is whether the whole 6-shot course would be needed to protect against casual exposure, now that we know that anthrax does repsond to treatment.

        As for Gulf War syndrome, there is no causal link to anthrax. Proximity, sequence: yes. Link, no. And lots of other things were going on in that area at the time, including the bombing of suspected bio/chem warefare dumps.

        sPh

        • Given the large amount of research (and money) spent studying the "Gulf War" syndrome in the last ten years, without any conclusion, it's not sensible to blame any single factor.

          But if I had to find a culprit, I would blame stress. Some people are more sensitive to stress than others. When hundreds of thousands of people are subject to such conditions, statistically there will be some extreme reactions. Soldiers coming home from wars always have some strange symptoms. They called it "shell shock" in World War I, for instance.

          The only reason why people keep blaming anthrax vaccines, or "agent orange" as they did after Vietnam, is that there is a liability issue if the cause is found to be a manufactured product. Lawyers could not profit if the cause was found to be stress, since war is supposed to be stressful. At most, the veterans would get psychiatric treatment from the government, instead of "compensation" from a manufacturer.
      • Actualy when you move that many people to an alien enviroment, some are going to catch some vague, chronic infection, and the cause isn't going to be detected.

        They were also given a drug that is in they same family as nerve gas, physiostygine I think, along with the attidote at the same time,(atropine). Plus Oil well fires, local parasites ect. to many variables to determine a cause.

        Also I thought the main problem at the vaccine lab relate to them being bought out and the new owners don't realy know what to do with them. They aren't getting funded and don't have a renewed permit to transport the vaccine that they have stored on site. The workers at the lab don't have a problem taking the vaccine, and they take it a lot more frequently than the general public would
  • ...to the /. crowd.
    We are really only interested in the threat by the demented crapflooder virus.

  • George Carlin (Offtopic) (Score:4, Interesting)

    by scott1853 ( 194884 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @11:51AM (#2574996)
    I know this is slightly offtopic, but I downloaded a Carlin MP3 from an HBO show from 1999 that I never saw or heard before. The first ten minutes he talked about terrorists and how they're not going to be stupid enough to use a bomb, but they'll take knives and dozens of other weapons that the airlines would let you take on board. He then went into talking about how we'd all be afraid of anthrax in our drinking water.

    I know it's just comedy, but he's a smart guy and that was just a little creepy hearing about this stuff from a 2 year old recording.
    • George Carlin - isn't he that guy hiding in a cave in Afghanistan leading a terrorist network?

    • Re:George Carlin (Offtopic) (Score:4, Funny)

      by libre lover ( 516057 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @02:53PM (#2576047) Homepage
      It's from the Carlin special You Are All Diseased. When I first saw you're post I went looking for my tape of it (I was going to transcribe it) but then I caught some sense and remembered Google. Here it is:
      I'm getting tired of security at the airport, There's too much of it. I'm tired of some fat chick with a double-digit IQ and a triple-digit income rootin' around inside my bag for no reason and never finding anything. Haven't found anything yet. Haven't found one bomb in one bag. And don't tell me, "Well, the terrorists know their bags are going to be searched, so now they're leaving their bombs at home." There are no bombs! The whole thing is fuckin' pointless'


      And it's completely without logic. There's no logic at all. They'll take away a gun but let you keep a knife. Well, what the fuck is that? In fact, there's a whole list of lethal objects they allow you to take on board. Theoretically, you could take a knife, an ice pick, a hatchet, a straight razor, a pair of scissors, a chain saw, six knitting needles and a broken whiskey bottle, and the only thing they would say to you is, "That bag has to fit all the way under the seat in front of you."

      And if you didn't take a weapon on board, relax. After you've been flying for about an hour, they're gonna bring you a knife and fork! They actually give you a fucking knife. It's only a table knife, but you could kill a pilot with a table knife. It might take a couple of minutes.

      Especially if he's hefty. But you could get the job done. If you really wanted to kill the prick. Shit, there are a lot of things you could use to kill a guy. You could probably beat a guy to death with the Sunday New York Times, couldn't you? Suppose you just have really big hands. Couldn't you strangle a flight attendant? Shit, you could probably strangle two of them, one with each hand. That is, if you were lucky enough to catch 'em in that little kitchen area. Just before they break out the fuckin' peanuts. But you could get the job done. If you really cared enough.

      So why is it they allow a man with big, powerful hands to get on board an airplane? I'll tell you why. They know he's not a security risk, because he's already answered the three big questions. Question number one: "Did you pack your bags yourself?"

      "No, Carrot Top packed my bags. He and Martha Stewart and Florence Henderson came over to the house last night, fixed me a lovely lobster Newburg, gave me a full body massage with sacred oils from India, performed a four-way around-the-world and then packed my bags. Next question." "Have your bags been in your possession the whole time?"

      "No. Usually the night before I travel-just as the moon is rising-I place my suitcases out on the street corner and leave them there, unattended, for several hours. Just for good luck. Next question."

      "Has any unknown person asked you to take anything on board?"

      "Well, what exactly is an 'unknown person'? Surely everyone is known to someone. In fact, just this morning, Kareem and Youssef Ali ben Gabba seemed to know each other quite well. They kept joking about which one of my suitcases was the heaviest."

      And that's another thing they don't like at the airport. Jokes. You can't joke about a bomb. Well, why is it just jokes? What about a riddle? How about a limerick? How about a bomb anecdote? You know, no punch line, just a really cute story. Or suppose you intended the remark not as a joke but as an ironic musing? Are they prepared to make that distinction? I think not! And besides, who's to say what's funny?

      Airport security is a stupid idea. It's a waste of money and it's there for only one reason: to make white people feel safe. That's all it's for. To provide a feeling, an illusion, of safety in order to placate the middle class. The authorities know they can't make airplanes safe; too many people have access. You'll notice that drug smugglers don't seem to have a lot of trouble getting their little packages on board, do they? No. And God bless them, too.

      And by the way, an airplane flight shouldn't be completely safe. You need a little danger in your fife. Take a fuckin' chance, will ya? What are you gonna do, play with your prick for another 30 years? Are you gonna read People and eat at Wendy's till the end of time? Take a fuckin' chance! Besides, even if they made all of the airplanes completely safe, the terrorists would simply start bombing other places that are crowded: pawnshops, crack houses, titty bars and gang bangs. You know, entertainment venues. The odds of your being killed by a terrorist are practically zero. So I say, relax and enjoy the show.

      You have to be realistic about terrorism. Ya gotta be a realist: Certain groups of people--Muslim fundamentalists, Christian fundamentalists, Jewish fundamentalists, and just plain guys from Montana--are going to continue to make life in this country very interesting for a long, long time. That's the reality. Angry men in combat fatigues talking to God on a two-way radio and muttering incoherent slogans about freedom are eventually going to provide us with a great deal of entertainment.

      Especially after your stupid fuckin' economy collapses all around you, and the terrorists come out of the woodwork. And you'll have anthrax in the water supply and sarin gas in the air conditioners; there'll be chemical and biological suitcase bombs in every city, and I say, "Relax, enjoy it! Enjoy the show! Take a fuckin' chance. Put a little fun in your life." To me, terrorism is exciting. I think the very idea that someone might set off a bomb in Macy's and kill several hundred people is exciting and stimulating, and I see it as a form of entertainment!

      But I also know most Americans are soft, frightened, unimaginative people who have no idea there's such a thing as dangerous fun. And they certainly don't recognize good entertainment when they see it. I have always been willing to put myself at great personal risk for the sake of entertainment. And I've always been willing to put you at great personal risk for the same reason.

      As far as I'm concerned, all of this airport security--the cameras, the questions, the screening, the searches--is just one more way of reducing your liberty and reminding you that they can fuck with you any time they want, as long as you're willing to put up with it. Which means, of course, any time they want. Because that's the way Americans are now. They're always willing to trade away a little of their freedom for the feeling, the illusion--of security.
  • Didn't the Soviets conduct research into musepox as a more contaigous virulaent agent? I seem to recall the lethality of the modified mousepox as high as 95%.

  • We can deal with it... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by DaoudaW ( 533025 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @12:01PM (#2575044)
    IANAD, but it seems to me that the smallpox threat is a bit overblown. The victory over smallpox was in large part due to the characteristics of the disease itself: short incubation period, very visible presentation. These characteristics would also make it easier to fight in the case of a terrorist attack.

    FWIW, my Dad had mild case of smallpox as a child. He was not horribly disfigured nor did he describe it as particularly uncomfortable as diseases go.

    • Re:We can deal with it... (Score:3, Insightful)

      by TGK ( 262438 )
      But there's a real difference between a weaponized strain of a virus and the naturaly occuring brand. Weaponized viruses are frequently resistant to knowen vacination tecniques. They have altered incubation periods and transmitable stages allowing for rapid amplification through a population or use as a localized weapon (depending on the desires of those producing the virus). Most are also selectively produced for leathality. Weaponized smallpox has a kill rate in excess of 80%. That's scary as hell. Ebola is scary because in its natural state it has a kill rate that high.

      Just beware that a weaponized strain and the naturaling occuring type are two different things. And yes, smallpox has been weaponized.
    • Smallpox was a terrible epidemic here in the states when it wqs used as a biological agent against the aboriginal populations in this country.

      The Conneticut Indians saw Smallpox decimate 90% of their population. The effect of Smallpox on New England was more drastic than a Nuclear Weapon.

      In a nuclear attack, you would lose 70-75% of the populated area, Smallpox killed at least 80% of the Native American population living in New England.

      The vistory over smallpox came about because we used it against our old enemies and now our new ones are using it against us.

      Jason Maggard
      Proud to be Miami
      Nothing4sale.org

  • Biopreparat (Score:3, Informative)

    by SpinyNorman ( 33776 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @12:04PM (#2575067)
    I don't know why everyone is so focused on smallbox, even if it's an awful disease.

    Ken Alibek (formerly Kantajin Alibekov) who was the deputy director of the immense Soviet Biopreparat biowarfare research and manufacture organizion defected to the US in the early 90's, and has written a book on it as well as testifying to congress and having been thoroughly debriefed on the Soviet program.... They worked on a whole slew of biological weapons including things like marlburg virus (similar to ebola) that would make you wish you only had smallpox!

    The Soviets stockpiled weaponized smallpox, plague, marlburg, tularemia etc in quantities of tens of tons each! They aqpparently killed around 100,000 nazis with tularemia in the Battle of Stalingrad.
    • Smallpox is more dangerous than these because it is more contagious. While you have to be sick to spread it, you have to be REALLY BADLY SICK to spread marburg. Plague and tularemia can be treated with antibiotics.


      The Soviet systems were designed to be dispersed in an area immediately following an anti-city nuclear attack, when the infrastructure for dealing with disease would be wiped out, and when radiation induced low immunity would exist.

  • Rats, Lice and History (Score:4, Informative)

    by jamie ( 78724 ) <jamie@slashdot.org> on Friday November 16, 2001 @12:11PM (#2575102) Journal
    I haven't read the Smallpox book reviewed here. But if you're interested in the history of disease, I heartily recommend Rats, Lice and History [isbn.nu]. Not a boring text, it meanders all over the place with a very dry wit and makes a truly horrible subject enjoyable to read about.

  • Jenner time! Do the cowpox! (Score:3, Funny)

    by Ukab the Great ( 87152 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @12:14PM (#2575133)
    Time to start milking cows again. At least cyberporn gave us lots of practice.
  • Yesterday I was surfing the some pages from CNN's site and Time which showed the elaborate caves or bunkers outside of Kabul, which reportedly are a number of other locations in southern Afghanistan. Though Omar and bin-Laden have claimed these are only for their own self defense. In recent days these characters have shown themselves to be truly villains worthy of any James Bond:

    Devastating weapons

    Fanatical followers

    Leaders bent on pure society, world domination

    Using science and technology to support their own ends, even where use would appear to conflict with their beliefs.

  • It's not the small pox I am worried about. It's the BIG pox.

  • Suggested Reading about Chemical and Biowarfare (Score:3, Interesting)

    by anzha ( 138288 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @12:29PM (#2575222) Homepage Journal
    I would strongly suggest looking up the book of _A Higher Form of Killing_ (iirc, by Harris and Paxman). It's a sobering book. I found it in our high school library in Los Alamos. I'd be curious to see if it is still there...
  • I'm an old bastard based on typical /. readership and I've have shots to protect me aginst this silly small pox crud. I don't see a problem, why should you or did someone else forget about you too?

  • I won't be in today, Mr. Smithers. (Score:4, Funny)

    by sharkey ( 16670 ) on Friday November 16, 2001 @12:37PM (#2575283)
    I have Smallpox.
    ...
    Well, it wasn't wiped out in MY house!
    &#151Homer Simpson

  • An interesting philosophical question... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by jd ( 1658 ) <imipak AT yahoo DOT com> on Friday November 16, 2001 @01:33PM (#2575615) Homepage Journal
    In order to be able to prevent an attack from weapon X, we must have a supply of weapon X, to develop a defence. In so doing, we also provide a known and ready source of weapon X, for someone to use.


    This was the case with the Anthrax, which I believe has been identified as an artificial strain, traced to a US Govt. laboratory.


    We also create a motive. Fear. There are many who fear the US, who believe that it is an ego-centric culture, which will crush any other culture it encounters, given time. (Honestly, I've not seen much evidence to the contrary.) The assumption that American culture is "superior" to all others does piss off a lot of people, all over the world.


    (The current President's view that International Law and International Treaties are only valid if convenient, and disposable otherwise, has sparked off two International incidents and is likely to fuel further crises, as the EU takes on Microsoft, the Kyoto Accords are implemented in other countries, and Germany takes the US to court.)


    In short, our very protectionistic, defensive attitude is our own worst enemy. Smallpox, Ebola, Genetically Modified insects or plants that replace native life with stuff deadly to humans... All this and more is possible, today.


    And what reason, exactly, are we giving other nations, other societies, to NOT use such weapons? It seems to me that we're not only giving others plenty of reasons, we're also determined to give them the means, too. Most other countries abandoned such warfare as too random, too unpredictable, and too slow, to be of any military value, and gave up such work.


    In the US, we're keeping stockpiles of deadly organisms, and are conducting GM research which would be considered unethical anywhere else in the world. We don't protect the environment (which makes it hard to detect intrusions when they can still be dealt with), and we ensure that health coverage of any quality goes to the well-off. (Who probably need it a lot less, than those who aren't!)


    In short, then, we're practically giving away weapons that can be used against us, giving others reasons to use those weapons, and we're then making it impossible for us to genuinely do anything that might protect us, by pricing it out of existance.


    IMHO, there is only one solution to this, and a lot of pro-Corporate people are not going to like, or understand, it. We have to take care of what we have - people, fauna, flora, habitats, EVERYTHING - as well as, or better than, ourselves.


    THEN, we can detect the threats long before they even become threatening. We would be more likely to have the means to deal with it, because we would catch the problem sooner. The same way that cancer is a whole lot easier to treat, when it's starting, than when it has completely run rampant.


    Further, if we learn to be more aware of our surroundings, we're much less likely to incite the kind of fanatical hatred that we have seen. Directly, or indirectly. Our fear incites the fear of others. Our awareness might, then, incite awareness in others, which might even reduce global suspicion and hostility.


    Sounds utopian? Probably. Nobody said I was a realist. I am merely a software engineer, who knows that Output = fn(Input), that if you want to change the output, you must change the input, and that if you keep getting outputs you don't like, then don't keep changing the input the same way.

    • MHO, there is only one solution to this, and a lot of pro-Corporate people are not going to like, or understand, it. We have to take care of what we have - people, fauna, flora, habitats, EVERYTHING - as well as, or better than, ourselves.

      One can only assume by your rant that you believe we should enforce a uniform standard of living for ll people everywhere. The Soviet Union tried that, and it's a great means of ensuring that everyone (but the truly elite - we really hardly have such a thing in this country relative to the Poilitburo or royalty of old) winds up equally ppor and miserable.

      We have nations for a reason, and we haven't outgrown them, nor are we likely to in this millenium.

      The people of those countries CAN and SHOULD change their own national governments to ensure that they act responsibly and in the best interest of the people of that nation. The US BY FAR the most generous benefactor nation in the entire history of the world. The superiority of our economic system generates a bountiful surplus that has allowed us to do so. While the US should encourage the formation of republics wherever it can, it is NOT our job or duty to try to sort out the internal politics of every corrupt regime on the planet.

      In fact, the experiences of this century have clearly shown the futility of attempting to "install" free governments in countries where the people are not sufficiently motivated to fight in their own self-interest.

      Obviously, you've fallen for the flawed logic of your leftist college professors. Following your course of action would result in the destruction of any means by which the US might be able to provide aid. We should encourage freedom, but the people of foreign nations must have some skin in the game. Welfare works even less well for nations than it does for individuals, sapping their desire and any initiative to get up and work for thier own benefit.

      Our goal (the only truly compassionate one) should be to help these countries generate their own wealth, rather than being dependent on ours. (The US has a long and successful history of doing this, even for our enemies...)
    • While I disagree with the "Blame America First * " tone of your rant, I can second the motion on the economics of bio-warfare and weapons in general. It takes a shed load of money to make the first of any type of weapon, but the second one off the assembly line is cheap. We, and the rest of the industrial world, have been selling cheap weapons to countries that have neither the inteligence nor the ability to make them themselves. If a country is smart enough to produce their own nuke - then by definition they must a decent economy, and hence have a bit of civilisation. Countries that have to buy nukes are a different mater.

      We can see the same effect with hand-guns here in America. The people who are collecters and manufacturers of hand-guns are smart enough not to use them without dire need (Gun shows are one of the least crime infected places in the world) - but the gang-thug who doesen't have the inteligence to make a gun himself, doesen't have the repect that goes with it.

      * "Blame America First" is a Trademark of Noam Chomsky. Used without permission.

  • Smallpox (Score:2, Informative)

    by JGski ( 537049 )
    Re: Hoax

    Assuming a leak couldn't occur from the CDC stock does seem reasonable. Assuming a leak couldn't occur from the former Soviet lab is not reasonable.

    Re: We can deal with it

    Not now we can't. There are 20M smallpox vaccine doses in the US now, all of which are of uncertain quality (could easily be as few as 5M still good). It's been estimated by CDC that it might be possible to use diluted vaccine to get 2x-3x but dilution has never been tried. The CDC/HHS estimate that we could have 70M doses in 3-4 months. There are 280M people in the US.

    The lethality of smallpox historically is ~30% (which puts an upper bound of 84M US people if everyone is infected) in population with some natural genetic immunity. There are forms of small pox and populations without natural genetic immunity (native American peoples 200-400 years ago) which can have 90+% lethality. Since vaccination ceased in the US prior to 1978, most of the population doesn't artificial immunity so best case the 30% number applied but it could be higher. The main factor controlling the actual number is the nature of the propagation: traditional epidemics are diffusive while terrorist can make them non-diffusive.

    Putting the 84M in perspective compare this to US war deaths:

    Revolutionary War: 4,435
    Civil War (North & South): 498,332
    WWI: 116,708
    Total (all nations) WWI deaths from combat: ~10M
    Total deaths from Spanish Flu in 1918-1919: 21M (600,000 civilian+military US deaths, military US ~200,000 deaths - yes, more US soldiers died in WWI from flu than bullets! And 2x died from bullets in WWI than in Vietnam!)

    WWII: 407,316
    Vietnam: 58,168

    Re: We can only hope...

    So maybe we'll have enough vaccine within a year, BUT, the death rate due to lethal vaccine side effects (source: CDC) is about 1:1,000,000, or 280 deaths from vaccination, and 1:10,000 rate of moderate to severe side effects or 28,000 (bad enough to require hospitalization).

  • With Airplanes dumping powder on people's houses [wsmv.com] the proof is there that they don't need smallpox or Anthrax. Many pesticides and other common poisons could be easily as deadly.

    What's worse is that this shit is going on and the media isn't noticing. Mostly to prevent panic, I'm sure, but it's pretty bad when someone lives less than 5 miles where something like this happens, and NO INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE!

    If Small Pox were to break out -- unless it gets into the public eye before big-brother can step in -- don't worry, you won't ever know about it.
  • Buying more nerf toys at toys'r'us (at least one major company still has dotcom fun) I saw a poster in the window for "POX". No mention of what it was but it did seem kind of badly timed.

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