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Medicine

Teens Fully Protected By Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine, Company Says (arstechnica.com) 91

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: Adolescents ages 12 to 15 were completely protected from symptomatic COVID-19 after being vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine in a small Phase III clinical trial, Pfizer reported in a press release Wednesday. The company also said that the vaccine was well-tolerated in the age group, spurring only the standard side effects seen in people ages 16 to 25. The vaccine is already authorized for use in people age 16 and over.

The vaccine appeared more effective at spurring defensive immune responses in adolescents ages 12 to 15 than in the 16- to 25-year-old group, producing even higher levels of antibodies that were able to neutralize SARS-CoV-2. In a measure of neutralizing antibodies, vaccinated youths in the new trial had geometric mean titers (GMTs) of 1,239.5, compared with the GMTs of 705.1 previously seen in those ages 16 to 25, Pfizer noted. The trial involved 2,260 adolescents ages 12 to 15, of which 1,131 were vaccinated and 1,129 received a placebo. There were 18 cases of symptomatic COVID-19 in the trial, all of which were in the placebo group. In today's press release, the company trumpeted that the vaccine demonstrated "100 percent efficacy." The trial was not primarily designed to assess efficacy, however. It was primarily assessing relative immune responses, so it will require more data to fully evaluate efficacy. Additionally, Pfizer and BioNTech have only released top-line trial results, not the full data from the trial, which has not been peer-reviewed.

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Teens Fully Protected By Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine, Company Says

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  • Adolescents ages 12 to 15

    Just say that instead of "teens" in the headline, since it excludes ages 16, 17, 18, and 19.

  • Yeesh.

    If there are 18 cases in the control arm, one would expect anywhere between about 13 and 23 cases in the vaccine arm (1-sigma or 66 pct ci).

    On the low end of that, a 70% efficacy would result in about 3 expected cases, so anywhere between 0 and 6.

    Therefore seeing 0 vs 13 is not "100% effective", it's more like "at least 70% effective."

    Doctors are bad at math and marketing guys like to pretend math doesn't exist.

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      You're right about doctors not knowing math. I've yet to meet one that understands the base rate fallacy. But 70% is plenty effective enough, especially because youth itself is a strongly protective factor for symptomatic COVID. We're talking about 70% reduction on top of the reduction just being young gets you.

      • Any hard bound above zero by definition is a net benefit. But saying "100% effective" without a rigorous large-n trial backing up that claim is just setting up a needless pr oopsie when a couple of kids end up getting covid despite taking a "100% effective" vaccine.

        • by hey! ( 33014 )

          Yeah, sloppy claims can do a lot of reputational damage, like AZs arguably-faulty effectiveness figures. I worked for many years in a public health related field, and people trained in public health like epidemiologists are taught to be sober, conservative and credible in their communications; but marketing and PR people don't seem to have got that lesson.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      If you're going to criticize someone's math, do your own correctly. Counts are not normally distributed, and they're not even approximately normal for such small ones.

      Zero versus 13 is 100% effective, with a confidence interval that's not stated. You should never trust a number with no confidence estimate attached, but it's not like such things are rare.

      Physicians are afraid of math.

      • Some math:

        The conceit of a clinical trial is that the prevalence of the disease is equally likely in both the vaccine and the control arm and that every test subject is more or less equally likely to get the disease at whatever it's prevalence, and that all test subjects are statistically independent of each other.

        This situation where each subject is independent and has the same probability of contracting the disease is described by the poisson process.

        A poisson process always has the property that its vari

        • And n=18 is even closer to where gaussian approximations start to become valid.

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          Copying random stuff off Wikipedia doesn't make you right. Just grabbing a random bit out of that, uh, text, the central limit theorem only applies to averages, it doesn't apply to raw counts or single samples.

          PS: how many sock puppets do you have?? You always seem to have mod points when someone points out you've said something dumb.

    • Could you explain your math? Because I frankly don't get it.

  • That's good (Score:5, Interesting)

    by mark-t ( 151149 ) <markt AT nerdflat DOT com> on Wednesday March 31, 2021 @07:12PM (#61222602) Journal
    Because this pandemic isn't going to be over until most people have been vaccinated, and that *includes* children, since despite being less vulnerable to developing symptoms, are no less likely than adults to transmit it asymptomatically.
    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by Gravis Zero ( 934156 )

      Because this pandemic isn't going to be over until most people have been vaccinated, and that *includes* manchildren

      FTFY. ;)

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      They're not talking about it in the press much, but a lot of scientific papers seem to be of the opinion that SARS-COV-2 has a good chance of becoming endemic. A lot depends on how effective long-term immunological memory is against it. At this point we don't know whether immunity lasts a lifetime, ten years, or maybe just one or two years.

      The time is coming soon when we'll have this epidemic under the control in the US and other advanced countries, but there will still be a big scientific job left to be d

      • You don’t even need to worry about reinfection, we already have variants different enough to inflect people again. Covid is never going away completely, we will be getting yearly boosters like for the flu.
    • Because in actual cases where, after much hand-wringing and virtue signaling, schools opened up and it turned out kids didn't spread the disease, are remarkably resistant to it, and have healthier immune systems than many older people.

      So if one's own immune system is handling it, why introduce a vaccine? What's the upside? Again, provide supporting data, not doomsday one-off anecdotes or whatever tripe your government officials are trotting out today.

    • by ebyrob ( 165903 )

      > Because this pandemic isn't going to be over until most people have been vaccinated,

      I guess that's why the Spanish flu of 1918 never ended since they didn't isolate the influenza virus until 1933...

      • by flink ( 18449 )

        > Because this pandemic isn't going to be over until most people have been vaccinated,

        I guess that's why the Spanish flu of 1918 never ended since they didn't isolate the influenza virus until 1933...

        People get long-term resistance to a particular strain of flu. That's not necessarily the case with SARS-nCOV-19. Also we'd rather not have 1/3 of the population infected as with the 1918 flu. That would lead to 100s of millions of dead. Therefore, the only humane way out of this is widespread vaccination.

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