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Medicine

Merkel Gives Germans a Hard Truth About the Coronavirus (nytimes.com) 408

Chancellor Angela Merkel is on her way out and her power is waning, but in her typically low-key, no-nonsense manner, the German leader on Wednesday laid out some cold, hard facts on the coronavirus in a way that few other leaders have. From a report: Two in three Germans may become infected, Ms. Merkel said at a news conference that reverberated far beyond her country. There is no immunity now against the virus and no vaccine yet. It spreads exponentially, and the world now faces a pandemic. The most important thing, the chancellor said, is to slow down the spread of the coronavirus to win time for people to develop immunity, and to prevent the health care system from becoming overwhelmed.

"We have to understand that many people will be infected," Ms. Merkel said. "The consensus among experts is that 60 to 70 percent of the population will be infected as long as this remains the situation." Ms. Merkel's estimates were probably a worst-case scenario, though not wildly out of line with those of experts outside Germany. Her warning provided a stark contrast to the crimped pronouncements of many other world leaders, among them President Trump, who has mostly played down the contagion. In a televised address Wednesday night, Mr. Trump took a somber tone as he suspended travel from Europe, excluding the United Kingdom, for 30 days.

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Merkel Gives Germans a Hard Truth About the Coronavirus

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  • Thermal cameras (Score:3, Interesting)

    by olsmeister ( 1488789 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @10:10AM (#59821422)
    It seems like it should be possible with the thermal imaging cameras available these days to quickly identify people in public that are running 100+F fevers and designate them to be tested for COVID-19, or at least notify them that they may have a problem and also get a better handle on the scope of the problem.
    • Re:Thermal cameras (Score:5, Informative)

      by MrL0G1C ( 867445 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @10:30AM (#59821502) Journal

      Not everyone gets fever, some people are completely asymptomatic.

      Symptoms like fever appear several days after the person has become infectious (infectious after 24-48 hours, symptoms typically after 5-7 days). By the time a person has fever they could have already spread the virus to several other people.

        • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

          She doesn't dispute what the experts are saying which is:
          The infected person **is infectious** after 24 to 48 hours, the symptoms appear after 5 to 7 days. As far as I'm concerned the jury is still out about exactly how the disease spreads (such as is it airborne or droplet).

          • No, she says "Basically, getting on public transit with an asymptomatically infected patient most probably isn't going to give you the disease unless you make out with them or lick their face or something."

            Which implies there is not a period of ~4 days where you can be asymptomatic and infectious (as you say)

            • by MrL0G1C ( 867445 )

              I'd like to see proof of that one way or the other because this disease is spreading like wildfire and I don't think her assumption holds water. Infectious is infectious.

              Unless she has actual proof for Covid-19 then it is simply an assumption.

    • They've already been doing this at various places around the world. As I recall, Singapore deployed thermal cameras at points of entry into the country and instituted mandatory screening for people who appeared to be infected. And it looks like their efforts are paying off. When you look at the growth rate of the outbreak as measured by how long it took for the last doubling of confirmed cases within each country (i.e. fewer days indicates the disease is spreading quickly, more days indicates the spread is

      • True, but Singapore* is in a fairly unique situation with a small population, a totalitarian but benevolent government, a population willing to listen to the government and do things for the public good, and a small island nation that is relatively easy to control ingress / egress.

        Good luck with any of that in say, USA.

        *I lived in Singapore for 4 years and love it dearly.

        • Taiwan [focustaiwan.tw] is democratic, has thermal cameras, and has the outbreak totally under control (just 49 total cases so far, and linear rather than exponential growth).

        • I love that country. They had a problem with people sticking chewing gum everywhere so they simply banned it.

    • Being that the normal body temperatures are between 97 - 99F
      I doubt wide scale thermal imaging cameras will be accurate enough to pinpoint peoples internal body temperatures. As many peoples external body temperatures may run much differently.
      There is a reason why Hospitals use Thermometers that come in physical contact with people, Head, Ear, Mouth, ummm other. For a medical diagnosis distance cameras are just not good enough. Hospitals would love technology that can monitor a patient's temp right when th

    • by sbaker ( 47485 )

      That's not going to help - or at least it's not going to help MUCH. The distinctive property of this virus is that most people who have it are asymptomatic - and even those who do go on to get sick can take a couple of weeks to show symptoms...that means no fever in the vast majority of people who are spreading it.

      The "test kits" that are out there use a finger-stick blood test that takes 15 minutes - and that can identify asymptomatic carriers as well as sick people.

  • by silanea ( 1241518 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @10:22AM (#59821470)

    Merkel said now what experts had been warning about since December. That we are facing this 'hard truth' is in no small part the result of her absolute lack of action and leadership. The Federal and State governments have universally screwed up the public response to the outbreak. Schools, kindergartens and universities should have been closed weeks ago, only in the last few days have large public events been cancelled (and even this not uniformly but with absolutely ridiculous exceptions). Testing of patients, of the deceased and, most critically, of health professionals has been avoided as much as possible to keep the numbers low on paper, putting those with pre-existing conditions at an enormous risk of exposure. Quarantine rules have been suspended for medical personnel, despite dire warnings about the likely consequences. Public authorities are not equipped or even legally authorised to competently handle the situation, coordination is virtually non-existent. Medical resources have been insufficient to deal with the day-to-day business before COVID-19, and they are maxed out already way beyond capacity despite the peak still being weeks ahead of us. This is common knowledge to anyone in the health community, and it has been openly decried by experts for months. Merkel has not given us a hard truth, she just admitted to herself what anyone informed already knew.

    And why now, so late in the game? To keep the stock markets happy for as long as possible. "Aussitzen", waiting things out until the one sane but politically unpalatable solution has become "alternativlos", without alternatives, is her signature style. And it will cost us dearly in this situation.

    • Anyone trusting the numbers as absolutes are guilty on this too. As soon as the first case made landfall in the US, containment measures should have been swift and drastic.

      Even acting just one week ago would have prevented what happened in Italy from coming to pass here. We already knew we couldn't do enough tests by then to have accurate numbers and take precise, targeted containment measures.

      But because of incubation period and time to severe symptoms, it's only a matter of time now. Enough cases to ov

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Three months ago it wasn't clear that it would become a global pandemic and that up to 70% of Germans would get it. That's just nonsense, in fact the first case was only on December 1st 2019 which is just over three months ago.

      The very first official announcement of it was exactly three months ago on December 12th of Chinese state TV. If Merkel had said back then that 70% of Germans will be infected and we should all start preparing for that people would have laughed and dismissed her as a crazy fear-monger

  • by pgmrdlm ( 1642279 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @10:31AM (#59821506) Journal
    I am not trying to start a policial war here. But I read CBS News, ABC News, AP, Reuters, LA Times, and god only knows how many other sources for national and world news. I have seen absolutely nothing about Russia and this virus. Or I just missed it. How many cases have they experienced? Have they shut down the borders?

    Any news at all, other than Putin is what ever he is for another 1? years.
  • To tell the truth.
    Thank you.

  • Not exponentially
    • You can see on a chart that it's not logarithmic growth. Even if it's approaching 100% infection rapidly, it's how it's getting there that determines the curve.

  • It was estimated that 30% of Americans got the H1N1 virus. 90 million Americans. Probably lots of people here did and didn't even know it. Did we all die? No.
    • And if 30% or even 50% of Americans get COVID-19 over the course of 6-8 months there would be no real major problem except a spike like a bad flu year. That's not what's happening. It's happening in the course of a few weeks. That's what's making this bad.

    • Cool Story, Bro.

      Yup, Nihilism! Don't do anything about anything! Doesn't matter anyway, unless we ALL die, apparently.

  • Poor leader (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Impy the Impiuos Imp ( 442658 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @11:10AM (#59821746) Journal

    Wow! The US media declared Trump an utter incompetent failure when there were only a few cases and no deaths in the US.

    I cannot even coprehend the beating she must be taking.

    • Re:Poor leader (Score:4, Informative)

      by dasunt ( 249686 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @03:13PM (#59823032)

      Wow! The US media declared Trump an utter incompetent failure when there were only a few cases and no deaths in the US.

      Criticism of Trump wasn't about the number of cases or deaths in the US.

      The criticism of Trump was due to his handling of the crisis.

      • In late January, Trump said that his administration had the corona virus under control.
      • Two days later, he said everything was going to work out very well.
      • A few days after that, he said he thought the administration had it under control, and assured us that he thought it would all work out very well.
      • In early February, he said he thought it was going to be fine.
      • Later in February, he said it was under control again and the stock market was going to be fine.
      • Near the end of February, Trump implied that any criticism of his administration handling the outbreak was a Democratic hoax.
      • Over the past few days, as the number of cases and death toll rises, he's been claiming everything is going to work out fun and praising his own administration's handling of the events.

      Trump has consistently tried to downplay the threat of this pandemic because he thinks it'll make him look bad and it'll tank the stock market.

      In contrast, Merkel clearly is clearly erring on the side of caution. Instead of downplaying the risk, she's talking about plausible worst-case scenarios.

      That's why Merkel isn't getting slammed, but Trump is getting slammed.

  • Costly (Score:4, Interesting)

    by spinitch ( 1033676 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @11:30AM (#59821860)
    The economic damages will be tremendous. The choices now are really bad to even worse. Wuhan local minions made the same mistake, like the Chernobyl bureaucrats, Unaware of the catastrophe unfolding. Eventually they came around and with tremendous necessary effort worked on containment.
  • what's in a ventilator / breathing machine that is so hard to manufacture. I would have thought that someone could make a mint by churning these things out rapidly. I keep hearing about 3d printing, automated manufacturing, crowdsourcing, and kickstarting. Now's the time to be building these machines if they are what is needed and in short supply.
    • A ventilator is useless without a trained healthcare professional minding it.

    • The ventilator machine factory is located in Wuhan, China. In fact, the very first case was from a fellow who worked at the Ventilator factory who fucked bats on his coffee break.

  • Um.... (Score:4, Informative)

    by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @01:39PM (#59822536) Journal

    ..."slow down the spread of the coronavirus to win time for people to develop immunity"

    I'm pretty sure that's not how immunity in this case works.

    You don't just "grow" immunity over time.

    You get it, you survive it, you develop immunity (or resistance; I think there's only 2 cases of reinfection and that's in China where the data is suspect AND IIRC ethnic Han are particularly vulnerable to corona-family virii)

    • by HiThere ( 15173 )

      Actually, it does work, though not directly. Try it this way.

      1. Some people get the disease, they get treated, they recover.
      2. Now they are immune. So they can't catch the disease.
      3. When the disease tries to spread and hits someone who's already immune it doesn't succeed.

      This is called "herd immunity", where a contagious disease needs at least a certain fraction of the herd to be susceptible or it dies out.

      The problems are:
      1. If the medical system is overloaded, then people die because they can't be tr

  • by Applehu Akbar ( 2968043 ) on Thursday March 12, 2020 @02:04PM (#59822662)

    The manual is not only already out, but you can read it free on Gutenberg: Journal of the Plague Year by Daniel Defoe. It's the founding document of epidemiology.

    Yes, he was the Robinson Crusoe author. His description of London in the thick of the Black Death is highly relevant to our time. Back then, nobody knew what caused bubonic plague, how it was transmitted, or how to treat it. So Londoners had to take an epidemiological approach to it, just as we are doing now. Quickly they evolved the idea of social isolation, "closing houses" as a quick fix, just like the self-quarantining we are doing now. The rich fled to the countryside, and it did not take long to figure out that in some cases the disease was being spread this way. They had to learn quarantining, fast.

    Bubonic plague is still a thing, and right here in my state. But because we understand the organism and the transmission vectors, at most one or two people a year get it. We need to arrive at that state with coronavirus as quickly as possible.

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