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Mars Space

Elon Musk: We Must Put a Million People On Mars To Safeguard Humanity 549

An anonymous reader writes: Elon Musk's ambitions for SpaceX keep getting bigger. First he wanted to make the trip to Mars affordable, then he wanted to establish a city-sized colony, and now he's got his eye on the future of humanity. Musk says we need a million people on Mars to form a "sustainable, genetically diverse civilization" that can survive as humanity's insurance policy. He continued, "Even at a million, you're really assuming an incredible amount of productivity per person, because you would need to recreate the entire industrial base on Mars. You would need to mine and refine all of these different materials, in a much more difficult environment than Earth. There would be no trees growing. There would be no oxygen or nitrogen that are just there. No oil." How fast could we do it? Within a century, once the spacecraft reusability problem is solved. "Excluding organic growth, if you could take 100 people at a time, you would need 10,000 trips to get to a million people. But you would also need a lot of cargo to support those people. In fact, your cargo to person ratio is going to be quite high. It would probably be 10 cargo trips for every human trip, so more like 100,000 trips. And we're talking 100,000 trips of a giant spaceship."
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Elon Musk: We Must Put a Million People On Mars To Safeguard Humanity

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  • There is no way to "safeguard humanity" (at least in a physical sense). It's called "entropy".
    • by Lesrahpem ( 687242 ) <jason...thistlethwaite@@@gmail...com> on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:28AM (#48035087)

      There is no way to "safeguard humanity" (at least in a physical sense). It's called "entropy".

      We can hedge our bets, though.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by MorbidBBQ ( 1453553 )
        We just need to develop a Cosmic AC.
        http://www.multivax.com/last_question.html
      • We can hedge our bets, though.

        Hedging our bets would be sending high speed one-way generational ships out of this solar system.
        Mars is not much of a hedge. Even if mars was fully self sufficient, many of the most likely killers
        like nuclear war probably wouldn't spare a colony on mars. I'm not saying that we shouldn't do it though.
        I think one of the greatest benefits would be learning to run a full blown biosphere so when we finally
        damage our current biosphere beyond repair at least we know how to create glass cities to live in.

    • What do you mean by "entropy"? Are you implying we live in a closed system? Or you are being absolutist and thinking about >Myr timescales. In both cases, it is not a good counter-argument to the plan.

      • by Empiric ( 675968 )

        Are you implying the universe is not a closed system (or by extension, whatever multiverse our observable universe may be within)?

        I'll need some evidence of that. Within the proposed metaphysical context at hand.

        • Not relevant except to a pedant. Nothing humanity is concerned with except in the abstract necessitates consideration of the entire universe, only our tiny portion.
    • by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:58AM (#48035473)

      Entropy. I don't think that word means what you think it means. The time between the events that will end humanity as a species or civilization and the time between the events of a possible heat-death of our universe are separated by orders of magnitude. Entropy should never be used as a nihilistic excuse to do nothing...

    • On the other hand, there's a difference between 100 million years, and 10 billion.

    • by Oligonicella ( 659917 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @09:08AM (#48036315)
      Pedantry is often mistaken as philosophy.
  • by fredan ( 54788 )
    on the first bitcoin atm and exchange on mars!
  • Scratches Head (Score:5, Interesting)

    by rmdingler ( 1955220 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:20AM (#48035021) Journal
    I suppose the number of trips to deliver a million humans to the Red Planet could be reduced if they could be convinced to breed once they arrive there.
    • The fastest way to breed a population increase would be multiple females for every male.
      • But that would reduce genetic diversity, requiring more people overall.
        • by gl4ss ( 559668 )

          50k would do it just fine.

          or just send females and semen from 1 million guys.

          • or just send females and semen from 1 million guys.

            That's actually a bloody good idea! Send eggs and semen. For every family, each child conceived should have the male or female DNA substituted for a fresh one.

          • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

            by Jflesch ( 1717646 )

            or just send females and semen from 1 million guys.

            There is always one guy to remove the fun out of great idea ...

      • by wes33 ( 698200 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:25AM (#48035065)

        General "Buck" Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?
        Dr. Strangelove: Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious... service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.

      • The fastest way to breed a population increase would be multiple females for every male.

        Multiple uteri at any rate. Our ability to grow organs and have them live outside of the human body is improving rapidly. I don't think it is too far out to imagine that we might one day grow babies inside artificial uteri outside of the human body.

        If science keeps progressing there may come a day when only the poor make their children the old fashioned way.

        • If science keeps progressing there may come a day when only the poor make their children the old fashioned way.

          You may have just hit on the solution to economic inequality. Make it so everyone wants to be poor!

        • by kent_eh ( 543303 )

          grow babies inside artificial uteri outside of the human body.

          The first image that pops into my mind is "Logan's Run.

    • by Cracked Pottery ( 947450 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:22AM (#48035033)
      Mars needs women!
    • I suppose the number of trips to deliver a million humans to the Red Planet could be reduced if they could be convinced to breed once they arrive there.

      That would defeat the "genetically diverse" requirement.

      • I'm not sure how you're going to prevent it.

        If you come up with something, there are umpteen fathers on Earth with teenage daughters who would be interested.

        FWIW, though the longish article begged skimming, it touched on the settlement being genetically diverse from earth. What would a Martian descendant of Earth look like in fifty generations? IDK, but I'd like it if humanity knew one day.

    • Even getting the first ship with humans in it would be a major ordeal. At current estimates [nasa.gov] based on the time it would take to get people to Mars, it would take 1.36 million kg (article says 3 million pounds) of supplies. That's for a round trip, but we are planning to stay there, so you'd probably need most of those supplies to still be there. You'd save on fuel because you wouldn't be returning but you'd need other supplies to sustain life when you were there. Even the biggest heavy launch vehicle [wikipedia.org] can on
    • I think you and Mr. Musk don't share the same definition for : "genetically diverse".

  • by lesincompetent ( 2836253 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:23AM (#48035045)
    Did we abandon terraforming? I know it takes time but it takes away many problems.
  • Cargo (Score:3, Informative)

    by brunes69 ( 86786 ) <slashdot.keirstead@org> on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:25AM (#48035061)

    The only way such a colony could be sustainable would be if it mined Mars and it's moons for materials to construct most things. There is no way a Mars colony that depends on Earth cargo for raw materials will be sustainable.

    • Mine for what? There is almost nothing there. There are no plate tectonics or much in the way of hydrothermal deposits to concentrate minerals. Forget minerals such as copper or other metals except iron. There is no oil or coal or nitrates. You can have all the sulfur you want if you need sulfuric acid...
  • Fixed (Score:5, Funny)

    by StripedCow ( 776465 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:26AM (#48035075)

    Elon Musk: We Must Put a Million Lawyers On Mars To Safeguard Humanity

    There, fixed that for you.

    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward

      save some space for telephone sanitizers and hairdressers

  • by seven of five ( 578993 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:29AM (#48035105)
    Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?
    Strangelove: Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious...service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.
    Russian Ambassador: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.
  • by petes_PoV ( 912422 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:29AM (#48035109)

    f you could take 100 people at a time, you would need 10,000 trips to get to a million people.

    No. You'd store their DNA, ship that and "grow" people after it arrives. And after the robots have spent the time necessary building the infrastructure, making it habitable and amassing the minerals, water, gases and power generation needed to sustain the colony.

    The only problem would be getting the robots to let go of control, once the humans arrive.

    • If you can store genetic material space and grow people from scratch, why would we need a back up civilization on Mars? Just park and maintain your baby factory in Earth orbit. If a disaster strikes, wait for the dust to settle and recall the ship to the surface.
  • He's right that we need to get populations of humans off this rock if the species is going to survive. Mars might be a good first step, but we need to think about more distance, Mars is too close. The gamma ray burst that kills off life on earth would just as easily kill everyone on Mars. If the problem was a wandering neutron star it's going to savage everything in its path.

    We need to think about sending generational ships into space. Maybe we can't do it right now, but we should be working toward that g

    • by Paul Fernhout ( 109597 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:52AM (#48035393) Homepage

      As I discussed here (~25years ago): http://www.pdfernhout.net/prin... [pdfernhout.net]
      "As outlined in my statement of purpose, my lifetime goal is to design and construct self-replicating habitats. These habitats can be best envisioned as huge walled gardens inhabited by thousands of people. Each garden would have a library which would contain the information needed to construct a new garden from tools and materials found within the garden's walls. The garden walls and construction methods would be of several different types, allowing such gardens to be built on land, underground, in space, or under the ocean. Such gardens would have the capacity to seal themselves to become environmentally and economically self-sufficient in the event of economic collapse or global warfare and the attendant environmental destruction. "

      And: http://www.pdfernhout.net/reco... [pdfernhout.net]

      And here: http://pcast.ideascale.com/a/d... [ideascale.com]

      But many others have discussed similar things, so just another voice in the choir in that sense. If Musk really reflects on these issues (other than being another Mars fanboy) he will see that there are many possible avenues to decentralization and resiliency, of which Mars is just one. As we gain knowledge and experience in creating such systems, then we can disperse farther and farther to deal with bigger and bigger possible disasters (including the ones you point out about gamma ray burst or wandering neutron stars).

      More ideas in that direction: http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/... [kurtz-fernhout.com]

      And by others:
      http://www.luf.org/ [luf.org]
      http://tmp2.wikia.com/wiki/Mai... [wikia.com]
      http://lifeboat.com/ex/main [lifeboat.com]
      http://openluna.org/ [openluna.org]

      Also something I've been involved with, but has since became more broadly "Open Manufacturing" and the maker movement: http://openvirgle.net/ [openvirgle.net]

      So, generation ships etc. are interesting ideas, and they all fit into a large general picture of possibilities.

      Still, for all that, making the Earth work well for most everyone (zero emissions cradle-to-cradle manufacturing, better healthcare and nutrition, a global basic income, better education for all, indoor agriculture, new power sources like dirt cheap solar and hot and cold fusion, and so on) is a good first step towards knowing how to live in space, especially given we are already on what Bucky Fuller called "Spaceship Earth". So, I see no big incompatibility between trying to make the Earth work for everyone and preparing for a future where there are quadrillions of people living in self-replicating space habitats throughout the solar system and ultimately the galaxy and beyond -- perhaps even into other dimensions and realities and simulations? Of course, there are philosophical issues still about all this about meanings in life and so on.

  • Seriously! While it would be a fun place to visit what nutter would ever want to live there permantly? No life, no trees, no grass. You whole life would be like living in an apartment building that you could never leave.
  • by whistlingtony ( 691548 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:36AM (#48035215)

    Mars does not have a molten iron core, and hence doesn't have the cool magnetic field that earth does. That magnetic field does a LOT to protect our atmosphere from getting stripped off, not to mention protecting us from radiation.

    Screw Mars. Spend all that money on making it nice HERE. We have the means. We have the tech. We could have a star trek utopia right here... Free education, opportunity through small businesses, cheap housing, plentiful energy. We could have all that right here if we just put a smidge of effort into it.

    Take all that money and just pay off 5% of the population's houses. Those people, now freed from having to grind on the treadmill for their housing, could start small businesses... circulating money in the economy. It doesn't need to be much. Start a taco truck... Employ a few people... We'd have zero unemployment and a lot more happiness. The economic repercussions would be staggering.

    A lot of human suffering is because a few assholes ruin it for the rest of us. How about we fix THAT? Screw mars...

    • Mars does not have a molten iron core, and hence doesn't have the cool magnetic field that earth does.

      Spouting some bullshit during my lunchtime - would it be possible to make the core molten and thus spin up a magnetosphere by creating an artificial moon?

      I'm thinking keep firing asteroids into the necessary orbit until you've accrued enough mass.

      Obviously not a "done this week" project just a curious thought experiment.

    • by kent_eh ( 543303 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @08:10AM (#48035615)

      Screw Mars. Spend all that money on making it nice HERE. We have the means. We have the tech. We could have a star trek utopia right here... Free education, opportunity through small businesses, cheap housing, plentiful energy. We could have all that right here if we just put a smidge of effort into it.

      Well, we could do that too.

      But us fucking up the planet isn't the only scenario that might cause planetary extinction. Do you remember what killed off the dinsaurs?

      • by Paul Fernhout ( 109597 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @09:15AM (#48036403) Homepage

        Seem my other comment here, but in short, pretty much all the same sorts of technologies we need to live in space would make life better on Earth. These include better recycling, power generation, advanced medicine and nutrition, cradle-to-cradle zero emissions manufacturing, greenhouse agriculture, education-on-demand, a library of open source part designs for 3D printing or other manufacturing, better ways of resolving conflicts in small groups or between groups, and so on. So, we don't have to pick one or the other. Sad thing is, we too often seem to pick neither and instead prop up social systems built around "artificial scarcity" and "learned" stupidity.

        In general though, I agree with you that we could make the Earth more like a "Star Trek" society. Here is an essay I wrote about that a decade ago:
        http://www.kurtz-fernhout.com/... [kurtz-fernhout.com]
        "This essay shows how a total of $14000 billion up front and at least another $2085 billion per year can be made available for creative investment in the USA by adopting a post-scarcity worldview. This money can help further fund a virtuous cycle of more creative and more cost saving efforts, as well as better education. It calls for the non-profit sector to help shape a new mythology of wealth and to take the lead in getting the average person as well as decision makers to make the shift in worldview to their own long term benefit. "

        I'm nearing the end of reading "Player Piano" which several people on Slashdot have recommended regarding understanding humans and technology -- although I think a basic income rather than a work requirement would have created a different society, and Vonnegut also seems to ignore how much effort can go into raising healthy and happy children or being a good friend, neighbor, or citizen -- focusing instead of "jobs" in a manufacturing sense.

        Related on learned stupidity, by John Taylor Gatto: http://www.naturalchild.org/gu... [naturalchild.org]
        "Our school crisis is a reflection of this greater social crisis. We seem to have lost our identity. Children and old people are penned up and locked away from the business of the world to a degree without precedent - nobody talks to them anymore and without children and old people mixing in daily life a community has no future and no past, only a continuous present. In fact, the name "community" hardly applies to the way we interact with each other. We live in networks, not communities, and everyone I know is lonely because of that. In some strange way school is a major actor in this tragedy just as it is a major actor in the widening guilt among social classes. Using school as a sorting mechanism we appear to be on the way to creating a caste system, complete with untouchables who wander through subway trains begging and sleep on the streets.
        I've noticed a fascinating phenomenon in my twenty-five years of teaching - that schools and schooling are increasingly irrelevant to the great enterprises of the planet. No one believes anymore that scientists are trained in science classes or politicians in civics classes or poets in English classes. The truth is that schools don't really teach anything except how to obey orders. This is a great mystery to me because thousands of humane, caring people work in schools as teachers and aides and administrators but the abstract logic of the institution overwhelms their individual contributions. Although teachers do care and do work very hard, the institution is psychopathic - it has no conscience. It rings a bell and the young man in the middle of writing a poem must close his notebook and move to different cell where he must memorize that man and monkeys derive from a common ancestor.
        Our form of compulsory schooling is an invention of the state of Massachusetts around 1850. It was resisted - sometimes with guns - by an estimated eighty per cent of the Massachusetts population, the last

    • by oodaloop ( 1229816 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @08:28AM (#48035815)
      Lot of good that'll do us when Earth gets hit with a large asteroid, as it does periodically. That's why he says this is about hedging our bets, not about human happiness.
    • by SpeedBump0619 ( 324581 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @08:40AM (#48035933)

      It doesn't matter how much money you spend here, by staying only here you are committing the species to a single point of failure. Fault tolerant design requires the elimination of single point failure architecture, particularly if the detection and correction of the failing element is difficult or impossible prior to failure.

      We are pretty bad at detecting dangerously large rocks flying directly at our faces. Said dangerously large rocks have the potential to kill every one of us in one event. There is no safe mitigation, there is no localized preparation that can eliminate the risk. Parallelism is the only idea that provides the proper redundancy. Extra-solar would be better, but we can't reasonably achieve that yet. We also might not be capable of colonizing Mars yet, but we should all get behind the fact that we really need to.

    • You could colonize a million people in Antarctica for a fraction of the cost of sending a million people to Mars. Unlike Mars, water and air are abundant in Antarctica, and the earth's magnetic field would provide protection from solar radiation. Transportation, not having to deal with leaving a gravity well, would be infinitely cheaper. And there is the possibility of finding oil and coal deposits in Antarctica, something very unlikely to happen in Mars. There would be issues of international law regarding

    • It isn't about making it nice here. It's about putting all your eggs in one basket. One major natural accident or man made nuclear war or asteroid crashing into the earth can kill humanity. Time and time again if you look at the history of the earth there are terminal periods in which most of all the life vanished in a relatively short time and then after millions of years replaced with something else. We don't want to be that species which dies out. We need to expand to ensure the race's survival. Th

  • You go first (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Squidlips ( 1206004 )
    I will stay here on the Green Hills of Earth
  • 1 millon is a very big number. Mankind odds for the future could be vastly improved if we send maybe 1000 (specific) people to Mars. Or to the bottom of the sea, or maybe just sacrifice them in a volcano.

    Seriously, for sending big amounts of people and materials elsewhere you need more than rockets, maybe an space elevator, or a cheaper/more efficient way to send big loads to space (there are several alternatives for non-rocket spacelaunch [wikipedia.org])

  • by nicomede ( 1228020 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @07:45AM (#48035311)

    And if you pick the right million people to send there, it's a win-win situation! I'm not sure that it would be really ethical to send one million bankster and lawyers to Mars though. At least from the Martians standpoint.

  • Well just F up that planet too.

    The concept of treating planets as disposable vessels for humans to be sucked dry and then we move on basically makes us a cancer.

  • by sootman ( 158191 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @08:05AM (#48035557) Homepage Journal

    Put a million people on Mars with no oil, and what are they going to do? That's right -- they'll attack Earth to get our oil! No thanks, Elon.

    I, for one, will *not* welcome our new Martian overlords.

  • LOL! (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Megol ( 3135005 )

    As the subject says!

  • Forget about sanitizing our spaceships - it proves very little. Spread life around the galaxy! It is our duty.

  • by lazlo ( 15906 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @08:24AM (#48035753) Homepage

    On the one hand, I think his number is off, or at least lacking detail. There's significant evidence that around 100k years ago humanity went through a population bottleneck of around 10k humans, so that seems like compelling evidence that a 10k population at least can contain sufficient genetic diversity to allow a species similar to humanity to survive. If you need a million hands to do work, then you could have those 10k people generate offspring, or you could augment their productivity by a factor of 100, or a combination of both, but as for moving people (or genes) from Earth to Mars, you should be able to get away with only moving 10k and still have at least a reasonable chance of being a back-up to our one planet egg basket.

    Then there's the idea of needing to send 100k ships to Mars. Unless you're just swimming in delta V, then you should probably launch ships at or near the transfer windows that happen every 26 months. If you're sending a ship every window, then those 100k ships will take over 200 thousand years. A lot can happen in 200,000 years. Like really, a whole lot. If you're sending 1000 ships every launch window, economies of scale work really well for orbital transfers, and you'd be really a lot better off sending a ship 1000 times bigger. It'd still take 200 years, which is still a long time, but not nearly as long as 200,000. And if you only need 10k people, you could send 1000 at a time for the next 20 years, which while still seeming extremely optimistic, at least sounds within some bounds of rationality.

    But maybe it's harder to get people interested in reasonable and achievable, but difficult goals than it is to get them excited about the unrealistic monumental ones. Sitting on the couch watching National Geographic, it's a lot more fun to say "I could totally go and climb Mt. Everest myself, I should do that!" than it is to get off the couch and go jogging for 15 minutes.

  • That's just not a good disaster recovery plan at all. Everybody knows you don't keep your offsite backups in the same neighborhood.
  • The number of trips to populate is likely to be somewhat smaller if you send men and women who can reproduce. Those offspring can reproduce (assuming there are both m/f offspring) after 18-20 years. And, of course, people will die of natural and unnatural causes. What will the average lifespan be? Average breeding span?

    It would be an interesting equation to figure out as to how many trips it would actually take to make a genetically diverse community that also has other society needs met in order to fun

  • Why? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by shortscruffydave ( 638529 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @08:27AM (#48035805)
    Why would we need to populate Mars in order to preserve humanity? In case humanity managed to wipe itself out on this planet? If that's the case - humanity has managed to f*** up so catastrophically as to destroy itself on its home planet - then it doesn't deserve to be preserved.
  • by Twinbee ( 767046 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @08:41AM (#48035953)
    I love the idea, but I think it's been mentioned on Slashdot before that the best way to preserve humanity is to build a colony underneath the Earth's surface. Quite far underneath to protect against various threats, including medium sized asteroids and super volcanoes etc. We're talking about a self-contained, self-sustained system, to the furthest extent that we can manage.
  • by Chris Mattern ( 191822 ) on Wednesday October 01, 2014 @12:28PM (#48038907)

    ...we need a Million Man Mars?

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