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Submission + - Miscalculation Invalidates LHC Safety Assurances (arxivblog.com)

KentuckyFC writes: "In a truly frightening study, physicists at the University of Oxford have identified a massive miscalculation that makes the LHC safety assurances more or less invalid (abstract). The focus of their work is not the safety of particle accelerators per se but the chances of any particular scientific argument being wrong. "If the probability estimate given by an argument is dwarfed by the chance that the argument itself is flawed, then the estimate is suspect," say the team. That has serious implications for the LHC, which some people worry could generate black holes that will swallow the planet. Nobody at CERN has put a figure on the chances of the LHC destroying the planet. One study simply said: "there is no risk of any significance whatsoever from such black holes". The danger is that this thinking could be entirely flawed but what are the chances of this? The Oxford team say that roughly one in a thousand scientific papers have to be withdrawn because of errors but generously suppose that in particle physics, the rate is one in 10,000. This doesn't mean that the LHC is dangerous, only that there is no reasonable assurance of safety. But shouldn't we be entitled to reasonable assurance from CERN?"
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Miscalculation Invalidates LHC Safety Assurances

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