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Science

Research Explores Why Popular Baby Names Come and Go (phys.org) 144

Posted by BeauHD from the Emily-is-so-2000 dept.
Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University developed a mathematical model to understand why popular baby names keep on changing, and it "points to a tug-of-war between the need to stand out in the crowd and the need to fit in with the pack," reports Phys.Org. "The motives to conform and to be unique interact to produce complex dynamics when people observe each other in a social network." The research has been published in the journal Psychological Review. From the report: Mathematically speaking, the desire to fit in would drive behavior toward the mean, or average, in the group while the desire to stand out would drive behavior away from the mode, or most common occurrence, in the group. "Put them together and they still lead to equilibrium," [said Russell Golman, associate professor in the Social and Decision Sciences Department at CMU]. To break out of the equilibrium conundrum, Golman and his team added social networks to the mix. According to Golman, that means communities, neighbors, colleagues, clubs, or other social groups, not necessarily social media. "It was surprising that social networks could make such a big difference," said Golman. "We modeled the dynamics with a lot of different networks, and not converging to equilibrium is actually pretty typical."

To test their new model, CMU Ph.D. student Erin Bugbee turned to the large database of baby names managed by the Social Security Administration for the last century. If baby names settled into an equilibrium, the most popular name would always be the most popular. That is not what happened.

As the popularity of one name, say Emily, peaks, parents may decide to forgo that name and pick a similar one, like Emma. By following this strategy, they are instilling in their new daughter a name that is socially acceptable by its similarity to the popular name but will allow her to stand out in the crowd by putting a unique twist on her identity. Many parents may be thinking the same thing and the number of little girls named Emily will decline while those named Emma will increase. The study concludes that understanding social psychology and social network structure are both critical to explain the emergence of complex, unpredictable cultural trends.
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Research Explores Why Popular Baby Names Come and Go More

Research Explores Why Popular Baby Names Come and Go

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  • /. effect (Score:5, Funny)

    by MancunianMaskMan ( 701642 ) on Friday January 07, 2022 @06:16AM (#62151411)
    If I had RTFA maybe I'd know what we all want to find out: how many boys named Neal?

  • Weird spellings ? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by dargaud ( 518470 ) <slashdot2@@@gdargaud...net> on Friday January 07, 2022 @06:33AM (#62151421) Homepage
    Interesting, but does that explain all the increasingly weird spellings we currently see (Brytneigh, Kaytlynn, Jovanny, Jenyfer...) ?
    The weirdest of all is the propensity in the US to give the same first name as the father (Junior, III, IV...). And that only happens with males. Some kind of weird egotism, or a lame attempt at immortality ? There's no such thing in Europe for instance (or the parts that I know at least).

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Sique ( 173459 )
      It actually does. Spelling like this serves both of the two purposes: It signals conformity by choosing a common name, and it at the same time tries to stand out in the crowd by giving it a special spelling.

      Sometimes it pays to at least read the teaser.

    • Re:Weird spellings ? (Score:5, Informative)

      by Sique ( 173459 ) on Friday January 07, 2022 @06:52AM (#62151445) Homepage
      There is such a thing in Europe. My father has three names, the first is that of his grandfather, the second that of his father, and his own name is that of his uncle who died early. And a friend of mine has the same name as the three generations previous. His great-grandfather, his grandfather and his father all have the same name.

      Aristocratic families were especially keen on keeping special family first names, with the same name for many generations. The family of Reuss junior line named all their male sons Henry (Heinrich), reaching numbers up to Henry LXXV. (who died as a toddler, barely reaching his first birthday).

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Misagon ( 1135 )

        The other day I watched a TV documentary in which there was a Dutch aristocrat who was the nth in line with the same first name. The first in line had known Vermeer (1632-1675).

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by dargaud ( 518470 )
        Yes, but it's second/third names that nobody uses. They are just written on some official papers and that's all.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by Sique ( 173459 )
          No. My friend has no middle name, just a given and a family name, and it's the same in the fourth generation.

    • Poor Darkseid. It explains most of his attitude.

    • Re: Weird spellings ? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by TJHook3r ( 4699685 ) on Friday January 07, 2022 @08:04AM (#62151549)
      Weird spellings are an attempt to fit in with society by using a phonetically identical name but subverting that conformance by giving a unique spelling, thereby sending a powerful signal that that person is almost certainly not going to be the top pick for whatever job they are applying for!

      • It is more likely that the same name occurs in differente cultures with different spelling.
        There are dozens - if not hundreds - of german names that exist in two or three spellings - or more - since millennia.
        E.g. :
        Atila
        Attila
        Atilla
        Attilla

        And yes, that is German, besides the fact that the name is most popular in Hungary or Turkey.

    • Funny, I'm an American who has worked for an EU megacorp for 30 years and I know at least two men, both Austrian, who are "juniors".
      But I'd agree it's an American thing generally, and I don't understand it either. I also think it's dying in the US.

    • > The weirdest of all is the propensity in the US to give the same first name as the father

      It all started with Major Major Major Major [wikipedia.org]...

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      Anyone thinking of doing this, don't. It's a curse your child will either have to live with, or they will have to change their name.

      Imagine every single time you are asked for your name, you have to spell it out. Even though you spell it out to people, sometimes they still get it wrong anyway. Sometimes it's trivial, sometimes the name on your airline ticket doesn't match your passport.

      They will also find that when people meet them for the first time, including on the phone when the agent looks up their acc

    • Names like (Brytneigh, Kaytlynn, Jovanny, Jenyfer...) are explained by all the white trash girls getting knocked up and shitting out babies.

    • Interesting, but does that explain all the increasingly weird spellings we currently see (Brytneigh, Kaytlynn, Jovanny, Jenyfer...) ?

      The weirdest of all is the propensity in the US to give the same first name as the father (Junior, III, IV...). And that only happens with males. Some kind of weird egotism, or a lame attempt at immortality ? There's no such thing in Europe for instance (or the parts that I know at least).

      Yinneffhasenpfeffer

    • There's no such thing in Europe for instance

      Well in the UK there is an Elizabeth II, Sweden has a Carl XVI Gustaf, Norway has a Harald V and Denmark has a Margrethe II.

    • ...no such thing in Europe for instance... - What? The concept of naming kids after their parents in the USA comes from traditions established in Europe. European royalty explicitly follows that pattern: Henry V... Henry VIII. Louis XIV ... Louis XVI. And so on.

      And that only happens with males. - You ever heard of an English queen named Elizabeth II?

      ...or a lame attempt at immortality. - We do exactly this with our last names to keep the family name alive.

    • Interesting, but does that explain all the increasingly weird spellings we currently see (Brytneigh, Kaytlynn, Jovanny, Jenyfer...) ?

      I suspect that there's less pressure for immigrants to assimilate, meaning that people are seeing more "oddly" spelt names from other cultures making unusual spellings more acceptable in general.

      So to co-opt the example from summary, if you think "Emily" is getting a bit to popular but still want the name to sound familiar then instead of "Emma" maybe you go with "Emilie" or "Emyly".

      The weirdest of all is the propensity in the US to give the same first name as the father (Junior, III, IV...). And that only happens with males. Some kind of weird egotism, or a lame attempt at immortality ? There's no such thing in Europe for instance (or the parts that I know at least).

      In Europe heredity first names was an aristocratic tradition, possibly as a substitute for a proper aristocratic title to pass

    • No such thing in Europe? How about Louis XVI of France? And, the last dynasty of Egypt is known as the Ptolemaic because every single one of the fourteen males of that family were named Ptolemy,. Not only that, but they only had three names that they used for females: Arsinoe, Beatrice and Cleopatra with the famous one being known in her lifetime as Cleopatra Selene, but known to history as Cleopatra VII.

    • Ok, I've wondered this. Is Kaitlin, Kaitlyn, etc, coming from Caitlin, just an American mispronunciation? Caitlin is Irish and in Irish would be closer to "caught lean" or even "Kathleen" and not "Kate Lynn" for sure.

  • Someone should do some research into the hot mess that is the type of celebrity mind that gives a child such moronic names that either they'll have to use some nickname at school or put up with years of piss taking.

    Sage Moonblood Stallone
    Tu Morrow
    Moon Unit Zapper?
    etc

    Seriously? Is it some extension of natural celeb narcissism or are they so stupid they really think these names will be some kind of advantage in live?

  • How do you explain this type of narcissism?

  • Errrm, ... isn't this obvious? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Qbertino ( 265505 ) <moiraNO@SPAMmodparlor.com> on Friday January 07, 2022 @06:40AM (#62151435)

    "points to a tug-of-war between the need to stand out in the crowd and the need to fit in with the pack,"

    I'm sorry, but isn't this psychology 101 and the standard factor of the ebb and flow of trends?

    Why do you need a study for this? Just ask a Fashion designer or a marketing debt.
    Or any older observant person for that matter.

    • you have a point that they are only modelling what people already know. But what they are modelling is now what you say. Their naive model which combines standing out with fitting in leads to a stable situation. Their contribution, which is not much really, is that in a social network you do not get equilibrium but a random walk result. Fashions keep moving. Now I can't reach the actual article content but it would be mildly interesting if they achieve the random walk by simply assuming a network rather tha

    • Re:Errrm, ... isn't this obvious? (Score:4, Insightful)

      by serviscope_minor ( 664417 ) on Friday January 07, 2022 @07:09AM (#62151477) Journal

      I'm sorry, but isn't this psychology 101 and the standard factor of the ebb and flow of trends?

      So your claim of "obviousness" is to simply state that it occurs in different words without explaining why.

      If it's so obvious O Armchair Expert, then explain WHY, don't just smugly tell us that it does happen.

      Very little about human psychology is obvious, which why so much psychology has been so incredibly wrong for so long.

      • I'm sorry, but isn't this psychology 101 and the standard factor of the ebb and flow of trends?

        So your claim of "obviousness" is to simply state that it occurs in different words without explaining why.

        If it's so obvious O Armchair Expert, then explain WHY, don't just smugly tell us that it does happen.

        Very little about human psychology is obvious, which why so much psychology has been so incredibly wrong for so long.

        This comes directly from the Big 5 [simplypsychology.org] personality model, one trait of which is "agreeableness" which is essentially the tendency to be malleable and go along with the wishes of others. The Big 5 model has lots of study behind it, and has tremendous predictive value, so it's pretty much a rock-solid theory at this point.

        Agreeableness (high end of the scale) can be loosely thought as the tendency to go along with the wishes of the group, while disagreeableness (low end of the scale) signifies a tendency to be on

        • I'm sorry, but isn't this psychology 101 and the standard factor of the ebb and flow of trends?

          If it's so obvious O Armchair Expert, then explain WHY, don't just smugly tell us that it does happen

          This comes directly from the Big 5 [simplypsychology.org] personality model, one trait of which is "agreeableness" which is essentially the tendency to be malleable and go along with the wishes of others.

          That's not the question. A trait of "agreeableness" explains why some names are more common and why some are less common. But if you try to model that mathematically over time, simple models will predict the common names stay common, and the uncommon names stay uncommon. An equilibrium is reached. The question is why, in reality, what the common names are changes over time? Why is there no equilibrium? Can you predict how fast they will change?

  • Nerds? really? what is next dancing with the stars recaps?

  • For some reason (Score:5, Funny)

    by ickleberry ( 864871 ) <web@pineapple.vg> on Friday January 07, 2022 @06:48AM (#62151443) Homepage
    I reckon there will be very few girls named "Ghislaine" this year.

    • And she proposes to give interesting information in exchange for reduced jailtime there will even be one less.

    • Regardless of the Epstein trial, I don't think I'd want to name any daughter of mine something that could sound like, "Jizz Lane".

    • I reckon there will be very few girls named "Ghislaine" this year.

      "Let's GO Brand...oh for fucks sake, just get in the car! We're gonna be late for your legal name change."

  • It seems to me that the fashion these days is to invent the weirdest wackiest names possible to try and give your child a "unique" name. Though quite why you need to "invent" names escapes me. For example my aunt was called Aelfthryth which is a "real" name instead of some made up shit and extremely rare.

    • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

      by Rosco P. Coltrane ( 209368 )

      Sadly, wacko names - particularly homonyms of more common names like "Antwon" or "Shauntelle" - strongly mark the bearer as coming from a less-educated, poorer black community. I've known a few recruiters on the lookout for those names in resumes: whenever they saw one, the resume went directly in the trash.

      If you're a black parent, the best gift you can give your child is not naming them with a fancy or clever name. In a perfect world, you shouldn't have to. But in racist America, unless you hate your chil

      • While it's true names like that carry a stigma it isn't always a good idea to outright dismiss them. I had a few surgeries this past year and the best doctor of the bunch wasn't even a full doctor but a resident named Shaquille. He joked about his name and spent more time answering questions than the doctors ever did. They would run away after 30 seconds but this guy was fantastic and enthusiastic about medicine.

        • I passed absolutely no judgment on the quality and worthiness of the human beings who bear those names. All I said was, the reality of America today is that those names are more of a handicap than a cutesy.

    • Idiots that think they need to come up with a unique username rather than an actual name! Exhibit A: "X Ã A-12"... what was Elon smoking that day?!

    • A kind of Saxxon Queen, or not?
      Essex, Wessex?

      As far as I recall, a shiny beauty.

  • Take some advice from The Duke of Bedford's Book of Snobs [google.co.uk]. Pick a name that's going to last and that would sound correct with either Duke, Duchess, Lord or Lady in front of it.

    Fashion driven names come and go. Snobbery is forever.

  • My parents named me Bruce in order to be uncommon but not weird. Unfortunately Monty Python decided to indulge in some anti-Australian jokes based on 'Bruce', but overall it was a good choice for the UK; being one of 5 'Johns' or 'James' in a class can't be fun.

    https://youtu.be/XxyzIC4hQvg [youtu.be]

  • Humans are stupid and baby names are an expression of that stupidity. Some hear a stupid name and think, "I want to name my kid that stupid name," and others are think, "no, that's not stupid enough for my child."

  • Was this study really necessary? Have we run out of science?

  • Here's my algorithm (Score:5, Informative)

    by davide marney ( 231845 ) on Friday January 07, 2022 @08:15AM (#62151573) Journal

    If you want your kids to be one of the good guys, name them "Dave" or "Jane". There are no movies where the bad guy is named "Dave", or the mean girl is named "Jane". Bad guys are named "Mick". Mean girls are named "Zoe".

    If you want your kids to be considered smart, use some German. For boys, "Noah" or "Mannfred". For girls, go with French: "Chole", or "Ines".

    If you want your kids to be bad-ass, gotta start with a consonant: "Maximilian" works. "Mal" is even better.

    If you want your kids to be rich, you have to be completely conventional. Anything that sticks out is as bad as a stray strand of hair. Unconventional spellings are especially to be avoided, they're worse than having a Southern accent. Stick with "Ashley" and "Grant". You can thank me later.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by pjt33 ( 739471 )

      There are no movies where the bad guy is named "Dave"

      Except Penguins of Madagascar, Horrible Bosses, The Equalizer 2, Black Panther, All Hail the King, and probably a few more. And since you only said "movies" I haven't mentioned comics, TV series, etc.

      Also, what's German about "Noah"? It's an Anglicised version of a Hebrew name which probably comes from Akkadian.

      • Also, what's German about "Noah"? It's an Anglicised version of a Hebrew name which probably comes from Akkadian.
        Nothing is German about it :P You got that quite right. Probably Sumerian even.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by spth ( 5126797 )
      Just given them multiple names? So the children have some choice of which to use later?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by spth ( 5126797 )

        Also, can't the children can just use whatever name they prefer?

        My grandmother was always known to everyone as "Gretel". Even close relatives only knew her by that name. The name in her passport was "Maria Margareta".

        Though I guess that was easier in the past. These days "papers, please" seems much more common that it used to be in any part of the world, any time.

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by dargaud ( 518470 )
          I have a colleague whose parents couldn't agree on a name. Father wanted Joseph. Mother wanted Sergio. He filled the birth certificate but she always called him by the name she wanted. So all his friends call him Sergio but colleagues know him as Joseph. When he picks up the phone he knows immediately if it's for work or fun !!!

  • Is what the Germans call it, it's quite interesting.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

  • Fake foreign-sounding, or just in your face "individual"?

    • The real question is pronunciation. Hard g or Spanish style y?

      • Pronouncing 'j' as a 'y' is mostly a Scandanavian/Germanic thing, e.g. 'ja' which means 'yes.' Most Spanish speakers pronounce it as a velar fricative, i.e. the same place you pronounce 'g' & 'k' but made longer.
  • It is obvious. People generally wish to be different from their parents, seeing mostly their faults, and not their qualities.
    So name popularity will alternate over two generations.

    Names based on religion will remain popular, though. They seem to be immune to this effect.

  • The rules (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Hans Lehmann ( 571625 ) on Friday January 07, 2022 @09:37AM (#62151707)

    I've always had an informal set of rules when it comes to naming children.
    Two of them are:
    - The name must be common enough that its spelling is obvious.
    - The name must be uncommon enough that they won't have to share the name with two other kids in their grade school class.

    Which pretty much falls in line with this model.

    • - The name must be uncommon enough that they won't have to share the name with two other kids in their grade school class.

      My parents had the same strategy. Fortunately me, my brother Darryl and my other brother Darryl weren't in the same grade.

    • Suggestion: Also make it a name that is international, i.e. Has cognates/equivalents in many other countries/cultures. The kid can be popular with everyone!

    • I've always had an informal set of rules when it comes to naming children. Two of them are: - The name must be common enough that its spelling is obvious. - The name must be uncommon enough that they won't have to share the name with two other kids in their grade school class.

      Which pretty much falls in line with this model.

      Yes, but unfortunately the model captures the time delay, so the second rule becomes not sharing a name with two kids in their parents' class.

    • Rule 3: It doesn't come with unfair stereotypes or jokes in your culture (Chester, Eugene, Orenthal, Adolf, etc.)
      Rule 4: It doesn't sound like you're of a different ethnicity than you are. (White kids !== J'Juan). You don't want racism to destroy your child's future.
      Rule 5: It doesn't sound like any curseword (Dick), unless the last name actually makes it cool (Richard Longfellow).

    • My name fits both criteria. People still can't figure out how to spell it.

      People can't spell much of anything these days. Grumble.

      ...laura

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by sconeu ( 64226 )

      When I was in high school, there were seven kids named "sconeu" (obviously not my real name) in the band. Three of us played the same instrument. It was always an adventure when the band director looked at our section and addressed "sconeu".

  • Donald, Barack, George, William, George, Jesus, Mohamed, Mountain Dew, Soros-Cocacola, Amazon-Bitcoin the third. That's my choice & I'm stickin' with it, no matter what anyone says.

  • Little one, your name is a natural reaction to this fucked-up world.

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