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Medicine Science

Moderna CEO Says Vaccines Likely Less Effective Against Omicron (reuters.com) 311

Posted by msmash from the closer-look dept.
The head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been previously, sparking fresh worry in financial markets about the trajectory of the pandemic. From a report: "There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level... we had with Delta," Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview. "I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to are like 'this is not going to be good.'"

Vaccine resistance could lead to more sickness and hospitalisations and prolong the pandemic, and his comments triggered selling in growth-exposed assets like oil, stocks and the Australian dollar. Bancel added that the high number of mutations on the protein spike the virus uses to infect human cells meant it was likely the current crop of vaccines would need to be modified. He had earlier said on CNBC that it could take months to begin shipping a vaccine that does work against Omicron.
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Moderna CEO Says Vaccines Likely Less Effective Against Omicron More

Moderna CEO Says Vaccines Likely Less Effective Against Omicron

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  • Smooth brains (Score:2, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward

    Assemble! Give me your best conspiracy theories.

    • Re:Smooth brains (Score:5, Funny)

      by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @01:07PM (#62033631)

      Omicron was cultivated by Delta Airlines because "the variant" (as they insist on calling it) was giving their company a black eye.

    • Omicron is the result of The Transformers Universe MUX [fandom.com] online text-based role-playing game getting out of hand.
      Per a page made in 2016 for Omicron: [fandom.com]

      One murder makes a villain; millions, a hero.

      • Damn you beat me to it. I wanted to make a transformers joke.

        Something like:

        Omicron is the product of a Decepticon scheme because they were tired of Human's always helping their foes the Autobots foil their plans to dominate the universe.

    • Re:Smooth brains (Score:5, Funny)

      by Gravis Zero ( 934156 ) on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @01:19PM (#62033677)

      The original plandemic was deemed a failure since some people refuse the vaccines, so Omicron is a modified version designed to rewrite the DNA of the unvaccinated and turn them into peat moss to be used in landscaping.

      • I, for one, welcome the soon-to-be-distilled whiskeys flavored by the malting of barley over the burning unvaccinated which have been transmogrified into peat.

    • a lot of people said over a year ago that this was never going to end and that covid would pretty much become a cousin of the flu.

      My understanding is that for viruses to be successful, its in their best interest to not kill their hosts. as such most mutations generally become more transmissive but less deadly

      the current numbers last i checked, including all variants is a death rate of less than 2 percent total and odds are even better for those under 50, and those without preexisting conditions.

      as t

      • Yeah. When people were saying this would end in a year, it just stank of that kind of "back to business" optimize. The fact that it's continuing should make us question a lot.

        The understanding you point to is often disputed as lacking proof but it's also not easy to "prove" and there are counter-examples. It's essentially considered a "safe assumption" by most in modern biology. The big issue here is it sounds like the first patient with Omicron has HIV/AIDs and that they were infected for a prolonged perio

        • The big issue here is it sounds like the first patient with Omicron has HIV/AIDs and that they were infected for a prolonged period (in the order of months).

          Citation needed.

          This allowed the highly mutable virus to very quickly pursue this "end game" of being flu-like but likewise since it's highly mutable and I don't know if we know if this comes from Delta, there is also the chance it takes steps "backwards

          If a virus is "highly mutable", it does not require "a prolonged period" to mutate.

      • a lot of people said over a year ago that this was never going to end

        Not Rafael Cruz. He boasted that if Biden won the election, Democrats would stop talking about covid [newsweek.com].

        "If it ends up that Biden wins in November...I guarantee you, the week after the election suddenly all those Democratic governors, all those Democratic mayors, will say, 'Everything is magically better. Go back to work, go back to school.' Suddenly, the problems are solved,"

        Reminds me of some clown faced goon who said covid would magically go away, that everything was under control.

        the current numbers last i checked, including all variants is a death rate of less than 2 percent total

        Yeah, what's 780,000 dead in less than two years? It's not like the flu which kills ~30,000 in a year.

        odds a

    • Owner of drug company hinting that we need to buy more drugs, go figure.

    • I thought that was the editors here at /. who can't even be assed to ensure the excerpt from the story is legible.

      Who the fuck is "Stéphane Bancel" ?

      Come the fuck on, I'm not going to believe anything you write about the vaccine if you can't even spell the CEO's name right. It's in the fucking article, copy and paste. Stéphane Bancel

    • Yep, it's all about the science and data until it's inconvenient or won't increase their bottom line. I've been listening to TWIV and they have been pretty good over this whole ordeal. The last places I would get information are from websites like Slashdot or big pharma ceos just ad-living it.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Z80a ( 971949 )

      One of the worst symptoms of omicron is to turn you into a low poly David Bowie

  • Before getting panties in a wad... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by cayenne8 ( 626475 ) on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @12:55PM (#62033579) Homepage Journal
    ..lets let them research and study this a bit more.

    From the early reports I'm hearing, it would appear that this variant may ALSO be less deadly and less likely to make the host sick.

    I believe one of the Drs that directly reported this variant, has stated that most of her patients had very mild symptoms.

    If this is the case this might not be a bad sign actually, since quite often, as I understand it, viruses as the mutate actually lean towards being easier to transmit, but lessen in deadliness .

    Part of selection is not killing the host, or at least not killing it off too fast.

    So, this might not entirely be a bad sign, but it is too early to start panic mode...geez.

    • Here is how all that can be true and the situation worse - if people get permanent injury at the same or greater rate but it’s far more contagious as is being reported. Even if it doesn’t kill a single person the greater spread rate and lowered vaccine efficacy could mean millions to tens of millions more permanently disabled people around the world. There won’t be time to vaccinate and it could still clog hospitals if severe enough causing the death rate from everything else to increase

      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by cirby ( 2599 )

        You missed this line: "most of her patients had very mild symptoms." Muscle aches and headaches, at worst.

        "Mild symptoms" includes "doesn't have permanent injury."

        It's turning into the flu, stop grasping at straws to pretend otherwise.

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by Train0987 ( 1059246 )

          And if this variant produces antibodies that prevent the next infection it could be a godsend: a highly contagious virus with mild symptoms that immunizes everyone who catches it could end this.

      • Here is how all that can be true and the situation worse - if people get permanent injury at the same or greater rate but itâ(TM)s far more contagious as is being reported. Even if it doesnâ(TM)t kill a single person the greater spread rate and lowered vaccine efficacy could mean millions to tens of millions more permanently disabled people around the world. There wonâ(TM)t be time to vaccinate and it could still clog hospitals if severe enough causing the death rate from everything else to i

    • If it were (for example) 20% less deadly, but 50% more contagious, then it could ultimately claim more victims than other variants.
      Also: if more contagious, more people infected means more chance of yet other variants emerging. With or without nasty effects from those.

      On the plus side: if it infects more people, is otherwise mild, and leaves some immunity against other variants too, it could serve as a 'natural' immune booster. Especially in the unvaccinated part of the population.

      From the early reports I'm hearing, it would appear that this variant may ALSO be less deadly and less likely to make the host sick. I believe one of the Drs that directly reported this variant, has stated that most of her patients had very mild symptoms.

      Small sample size =

      • From the early reports I'm hearing, it would appear that this variant may ALSO be less deadly and less likely to make the host sick. I believe one of the Drs that directly reported this variant, has stated that most of her patients had very mild symptoms.

        Small sample size = worthless to draw conclusions from. If doctor "saw no-one go to hospital" that means little since the vast majority of people hit with other Covid variants, don't go to hospital either.

        So like you said: needs more research. Until better data is gathered, it's wise to treat each new variant with caution.

        The sample size I see cited is about 3,000 patients, so not exactly a small sample size. There has been limited time. As more people are exposed to omicron and more time passes we'll get a better idea of the risks of this variant.

    • ..lets let them research and study this a bit more.

      Agreed. What matters is the rate of serious illness. It is possible that the vaccines may still protect against hospitalization in most cases even if they are less effective at preventing symptoms. If Coivd-19 becomes like the other 4 endemic coronaviruses that will be its ultimate fate: as our immune systems get used to dealing with it it will become just one more virus causing the common cold.

    • Re:Before getting panties in a wad... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @04:13PM (#62034379)

      ..lets let them research and study this a bit more.

      The fundamental problem is... people have come to expect instant authoritative answers from the internet - and that's incompatible with how science works.

    • From the early reports I'm hearing, it would appear that this variant may ALSO be less deadly and less likely to make the host sick.
      I believe one of the Drs that directly reported this variant, has stated that most of her patients had very mild symptoms.

      Indeed, but take your own advice on research because the Dr who directly reported this variant didn't say that the Omicron variant in SA started spreading in a predominantly *young* population with the older population more isolated.

      Every variant has been milder for young people.

      Give it time. It's quite pointless saying anything at this stage as the data is too full of various types of biases to be in any way useful.

  • Meanwhile... (Score:3)

    by bluegutang ( 2814641 ) on Tuesday November 30, 2021 @01:10PM (#62033645)

    Pfizer (Biontech) says that the vaccine will probably still be effective against severe illness [reuters.com].

    So on one hand, the vaccine will likely be less effective than it is against other variants. On the other hand, it will still likely prevent most of the severe consequences of covid.

    Bottom line, you should still get vaccinated, the rise of omicron does not change that.

    • They are just talking out their ass. The conclusion here is more sound in that the vaccine works on the spike protein and it has significantly changed in shape.

      Nothing will be certain until a few months from now...

      • Months? It doesn't take that long to run a neutralization assay once they culture up enough omicron to slap it on the assay plates. Should have preliminary data in a few weeks.
    • I’m waiting to hear the results on permanent injury and disablement with omicron. It’s not just deaths when it leaves people with brain damage and/or barely functioning lungs in a large number of people including those with mild symptoms which as been as high as 20% of all cases. The vaccines are based on the original strain, omicron has 32 changes to the spike protein, iirc about 5 of which are of high concern. This may be the point where the efficacy drops below a critical point and it start

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by GuB-42 ( 2483988 )

      They are both right.
      Vaccine efficacy will be weakened, that's for sure. What is also sure is that current vaccines will still work to some extent. The extremes are out.

      For Alpha, and then Delta, the original vaccines are less effective but not by much, so a new one is not justified. For Omicron, we still don't know.

    • >> the rise of omicron does not change that.

      That's my favorite Avengers movie!
  • Interesting that the the Omicron variant 'Patient Zero' was fully vaccinated. https://news.sky.com/story/cov... [sky.com]

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by hey! ( 33014 )

      Not really. The first patient was caught by a stringent border screening protocol, and anyone going through such a check would almost certainly be vaccinated. It literally says nothing about how effective the vaccine is against preventing detectable infection, other than it is not 100% effective, which we already knew.

      • Not really. The first patient was caught by a stringent border screening protocol, and anyone going through such a check would almost certainly be vaccinated. It literally says nothing about how effective the vaccine is against preventing detectable infection, other than it is not 100% effective, which we already knew.

        The existing vaccines train our bodies against the spike protein. The omicron variant has many mutations on the spike protein, so it isn't surprising that existing vaccines aren't 100% effective against it.

    • There's no such thing as a sterilizing vaccine from the definitions I've seen strewn about during the pandemic. The whole idea is antivaxxer nuttery. In any case, it isn't too surprising that the index case was someone that ended up remaining healthy enough to make it through screening until entering quarantine in a country with strict protocols and excellent diagnostic testing.
    • I suppose by now most people that are tested are already vaccinated - most of the unvaccinated being either unable or unwilling to access healthcare services such as testing or vaccination.

      It's not like we know the literal patient 0, as in, the person in which the mutations occurred. When South Africa went back and did DNA testing on positive cases starting with the day after this guy showed symptoms, the majority we already Omicron.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by GuB-42 ( 2483988 )

      He is unlikely to be the real "patient zero". Omicron symptoms are nothing special, when there are symptoms, he just happens to be the first tested with a discriminating test.

      Here, several researchers suspect the mutation comes from someone with HIV. There is a lot of people with HIV in South Africa, and their weakened immune system may be able to keep them alive with relatively few symptoms but not clear the infection completely, that makes the prefect breeding ground for new variants.

  • Then there is no way they can be as effective. Antibodies bind to the folded form of the spike protein.

    However, the memory T-Cells generated by the vaccine will still recognize the chopped up Amino Acid segments of spike presented by MHCs, which will prevent severe disease (if it isn't already milder as suggested by that SA doctor). T-Cells are the unsung heroes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by jeff4747 ( 256583 )

      If antibodies are no longer effective, this virus isn't infectious.

      The spike protein has to match the receptors on our cells, and those receptors aren't changing. If the spike protein has changed so much that antibodies can no longer bind, then it is exceptionally unlikely that the protein still fits our receptors. Like, win the lottery many times in a row unlikely.

      "Mutations" just mean the sequence changed. That doesn't necessarily mean the protein actually changed. For example, a mutation that turns G

      • Spike epitopes recognized by antibodies can change without preventing it from binding to ACE2.

        • And I can win the lotto six times in a row.

          Doesn't mean I should start the financial planning for that 6th win right now.

          • Re: (Score:2)

            by hey! ( 33014 )

            And I can win the lotto six times in a row.

            If think about it, there's an *awful lot* of genetic lottery tickets being handed out to SARS-COV-2. A single individual will produce on the order of a *hundred billion* virions, each one of which will have some mutation or another; multiply that by 262 million cases worldwide and that on the order of 10^19 lottery tickets that have been handed out so far.

            Now the lottery analogy is a bad one. Lottery probabilities are precisely calculable and drawings are independent trials. Vaccines put evolutionary pres

            • I don't know if you can precisely calculate the probability of some set of mutations

              You can. The various enzymes involved have a known error rate. You can also calculate an overall mutation rate for the virus.

              You also can't forget that each vaccinated person is going to have slightly different antibodies, since they are randomly generated. To avoid all antibodies requires a very different virus protein shape. Otherwise it makes the vaccine less effective, but not ineffective. But a very different shape won't match our ACE receptors.

              As for the 10^19th and other large numbers, you have

      • Those receptors are used by our body for some pretty important things. The vaccine does not directly target other things that bind to the receptor. On the other hand, both the disease and the vaccine do cause cardiovascular issues in rare cases.

  • All COVID-19 vaccines are based off the spike protein. Each mutation of this spike protein introduces a possibility of the mutation slipping under the radar.

    Preliminary observations indicate the omicron variation has milder symptoms, so no need to panic yet. Let's give it 2-3 weeks of our usual precautions to see if this trend continues.

  • The original vaccine was made based on the original variant. Variants are different, by definition. The Delta variant was different enough that vaccine effectiveness was much lower at preventing the disease, even if it made it less severe. I was double vaxxed and still caught it, and it sucked but I didn't have to go to the hospital. Now I am better but it is still kind of shitty even though it was a month ago. Now we have yet another variant that is significantly different from Delta. So no shit the exist

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