Follow Slashdot stories on Twitter

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
Earth Science

Climate Crisis Has Shifted the Earth's Axis (theguardian.com) 143

The massive melting of glaciers as a result of global heating has caused marked shifts in the Earth's axis of rotation since the 1990s, research has shown. It demonstrates the profound impact humans are having on the planet, scientists said. New submitter DickHodgman shares a report: In the past, only natural factors such as ocean currents and the convection of hot rock in the deep Earth contributed to the drifting position of the poles. But the new research shows that since the 1990s, the loss of hundreds of billions of tonnes of ice a year into the oceans resulting from the climate crisis has caused the poles to move in new directions. The scientists found the direction of polar drift shifted from southward to eastward in 1995 and that the average speed of drift from 1995 to 2020 was 17 times faster than from 1981 to 1995. Since 1980, the position of the poles has moved about 4 metres in distance.
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Climate Crisis Has Shifted the Earth's Axis

Comments Filter:
  • ended. and the poles shifting has been documented since the 1700's using ship's log books of measurements from that time

  • This conflicts (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 23, 2021 @12:45PM (#61305426)

    This conflicts with my established political views so it cant be possible, because no one, and i mean NO ONE, knows more about the complex interactions that make the world go round (literally) than my teams politicians!

    so the only possible explanation for all this 'evidence' and 'science' is a massive world wide conspiracy between the media, scientists, and the other teams politicians.

    yep,... conspiracy involving hundreds of millions of people from all walks of life, agreeing to work together on this massive lie to the entire world, with the ultimate goal of ... profit i guess... that makes the most sense!

  • Southwards? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by nospam007 ( 722110 ) * on Friday April 23, 2021 @12:51PM (#61305456)

    Isn't ANY direction on the North-Pole 'southwards'?

    • Re:Southwards? (Score:5, Informative)

      by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:39PM (#61305676)

      Isn't ANY direction on the North-Pole 'southwards'?

      Any movement from the current position is southwards. But they are using the 1980 position as the baseline. So from 1980 to 1995, the pole moved about 4 meters. Since then, the direction of drift has shifted by 90 degrees and the pole is moving east without moving further south from the 1980 position.

      1980
      |
      |
      |
      1995 --- 2021

      • " But they are using the 1980 position as the baseline. So from 1980 to 1995, the pole moved about 4 meters."

        Sure, but it still moves south or north, never east or west.

        • Sure, but it still moves south or north, never east or west.

          Relative to its current position, the pole can only move south (never north).

          Relative to its 1980 position, which is what TFA uses as a baseline, it can move north, east, south, or west.

      • But they are using the 1980 position as the baseline.

        Good they chose a baseline. It's useful for things that change a lot.

        I hope they did not think 1980 was somehow special though. That would be stupid.

        • I hope they did not think 1980 was somehow special though. That would be stupid.

          Most likely they are using 1980 as the reference because that is when regular accurate measurements began.

    • The point is not about "any" direction.

      The point is that (for example) Greenwich is no longer (90-52)deg from the Earth's centre of mass on the same bearing as it used to be.

  • Just wait till July 20th, and join us [daysoftheyear.com]!
  • Ho hum. (Score:1, Insightful)

    by groobly ( 6155920 )

    Did the axis shift? Yeah, maybe. Was it caused by glaciers melting? Very very unlikely.

    • It certainly could be, but at the same time the forming of the glaciers in the first place would have also caused a shift. Maybe there's some reasons to be really concerned with this, but compared to some of the other issues that climate change will cause, this is not something to be too concerned with.
    • Re:Ho hum. (Score:4, Insightful)

      by reg ( 5428 ) <reg@freebsd.org> on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:32PM (#61305636) Homepage

      The paper shows it was caused by glacial (well ice sheet) melting, or didn't you RTFA? If you have a scientific rebuttal to their research, then publish it. Maybe shifting of the poles is not a major issue compared to all of the other impacts of humans on the environment, but it is yet another piece of evidence that we are causing measurable global change. It might also be a good cross-check of historical data.

      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        by Anonymous Coward

        The paper shows it was caused by glacial (well ice sheet) melting, or didn't you RTFA?

        Maybe you didn't read the actual paper [wiley.com] and simply relied on its interpretation by a Guardian reporter. If you check the paper, the authors say there is some uncertainty about polar ice melting as the cause of polar drift.

        • by reg ( 5428 )

          Last line of the paper:

          The polar drift in 1995 discovered in this study, along with the polar drift in 2005 and 2012 discovered in previous studies, reinforces the suggestion that âoeterrestrial water storage is the most plausible causal mechanism for the decadalâlike oscillationâ.

  • This IS nonsense (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Bucko ( 15043 ) on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:06PM (#61305506)

    First of all, the moon is the primary cause of the earth's axis-shift - it's why it points 23.5 degrees from the ecliptic and goes around that point every 26,000 years. And 4 meters in over a century is also called measurement noise.

    Second, the poster and other climate activists should stop spreading catastrophe porn.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      > Second, the poster and other climate activists should stop spreading catastrophe porn.

      You can't expect the religious [hawaiifreepress.com] to not prosthelytize.

      • Oh fuck off, the *one* time you're it tue dishonest nutjobs, and suddenly you masturbate over thinking you are able to call them what you factually are.

        Because you have no clue of science or reality *what-so-ever*, and probably are so primitive, you thing the imaginary skydaddy is *actually* a real thing.

    • You’re right. Clearly these scientists have wasted years of time and money pouring over the data. All this time all they had to do was post an Ask Slashdot story to get the answer.

      • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

        Clearly these scientists have wasted years of time and money pouring over the data.

        I'm curious. What, pray tell, were they pouring over the data? Old toner cartridges? Whisky? Orange juice?

        Oh, you misspelled "poring"! Never mind....

    • "the moon is the primary cause of the earth's axis-shift"

      The moon is the primary cause of axial procession, not of shifting the axis relative to the earth itself.

      • by Bucko ( 15043 )

        You're quite right. The primary shift was probably due to collisions with large bodies while the earth and solar system were forming. Thanks for the clarification.

        • "The primary shift was probably due to collisions with large bodies while the earth and solar system were forming"

          Those are one time events. There haven't been collisions of that size in the last few billion years. They can't be used to explain current and accellerating changes.

    • by jbengt ( 874751 )
      There was nothing about catastrophe in TFA or the study. It is just pointing out that the changes in the distribution of water and ice have had a measurable impact on the location of the poles.
    • Sorry to tell you, but I was reading papers on the movement of the pole (of rotation) back in the late 1970s. Then the -/+ 1m/yr "Chandler wobble" was the main unexplained issue. This report of a ~4m movement is simply outside the noise in the system. Even the 1m movement due to the Tokoku earthquake doesn't change the overall effect.

      [SELF : flags "Bucko ( 15043 ) as a retarded climate denier who is likely to cause his children to die, miserably.

  • by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 ) on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:08PM (#61305508)

    Earthquakes measurably shift the Earth's axis.

    Cool that we have the infrastructure to measure it, but not the end of the world.

    Panic porn headline is panic porn.

    • by RightwingNutjob ( 1302813 ) on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:29PM (#61305620)

      https://datacenter.iers.org/da... [iers.org]

      Just to add to other comments here, the typical pole wander is on the order of +/- 10m over a year.

      4 meters over 40 years isn't a big number. And if that's the number for the amount of ice shift to date, the bound on a worst case ice age vs worst case waterworld is probably not that big.

      Again: this is an irrelevant statistic for anything other than precision geodesy and is absolute dishonest panic porn.

      • https://datacenter.iers.org/da... [iers.org]

        Just to add to other comments here, the typical pole wander is on the order of +/- 10m over a year.

        4 meters over 40 years isn't a big number. And if that's the number for the amount of ice shift to date, the bound on a worst case ice age vs worst case waterworld is probably not that big.

        Assuming that the +/- 10m over a year is random, the expected deviation from a random normal walk is 6m and change.

        Modeled as a coin flip with 1m being heads and -1m being tails, the chances of being 10m over average is 11%, however there is an equal 11% probability of being 10m under average, so the total probability is a bit over 22%.

        That's not the right analysis because the random drift is in 2 dimensions (the coin flip is in 1 dimension), but it's an easy back-of-the-envelope for comparison.

        Again: this is an irrelevant statistic for anything other than precision geodesy and is absolute dishonest panic porn.

        The article

        • by jbengt ( 874751 )
          Thing is, causes of polar drift are known, and when accounted for, they don't explain the whole movement. So this study looked at a few other possibilities, and teased out from the data that the melting ice and pumping of groundwater could explain a lot of that.
      • In the past, only natural factors such as ocean currents and the convection of hot rock in the deep Earth contributed to the drifting position of the poles.

        To add to the addition, the Guardian continues to be so sloppy as to be meaningless. Continental drift contributes to the drifting position of the poles as well over very long timescales. Over drastically shorter timescales, the most significant Earth-bound affect on the drifting of the poles is the repeated formation and dissolution of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. It has come and gone at last four times in the past 2.5 million years, and every time it forms it induces a fairly drastic wobble in the rotatio

    • by jm007 ( 746228 )

      what makes this particular issue so difficult is that there at least two issues to a layman....

      because most of us get the info no better than second-hand, usually passed along from a biased source, political or otherwise, I can't be sure of what I'm hearing is complete and/or accurate

      and then there's the interpretation of the data.... itself besotted w/ agendas and politics to the point where I'm sure many folks just throw up their hands and say, phukkit, I'll just go along with whatever my party affiliati

      • No. Truth is knowable. No matter how much you don't want to know it.

        • As a point of mathematical fact, truth can only be inferred to some level of confidence given sufficient information and a bound on noise.

          Further, some truth cannot be inferred because the information is inaccessible or the natural (or adversarial) noise exceeds it by orders of magnitude.

          For two examples of the former case, consider the orbit of some planet millions of light years away. Truth exists. The planet has some position and velocity. But the information to infer them may not be accessible here.

          Or c

          • For two examples of the former case, consider the orbit of some planet millions of light years away. Truth exists. The planet has some position and velocity. But the information to infer them may not be accessible here.

            "Truth" can include error bars. The existence of those error bars does not mean you have no idea what's actually happening. You know what's going on is within those error bars.

            What you and jm007 are attempting to do is the standard climate-change-denial maneuver these days of pretending it's not possible to know what's going on, because measurements are not 100% perfect. You turned to this when your previous tactic, of insisting there's no possible way to change the climate, stopped being effective.

            We kn

            • As a general principle, if the error bars are too large, they are useless. If I gave you my location to within a foot, a mile, or even 100 miles, that may be of some practical use to you. If I told you I was somewhere in the Milky Way, that's useless for almost anything you could think of.

              As for climate denial...this is TDS on steroids again. If Trump says the sky is blue, it must be green, observations be damned.

              What I am saying very precisely is that a 4 meter shift in the pole or even a 40 meter shift on

              • If I told you I was somewhere in the Milky Way, that's useless for almost anything you could think of.

                If I'm on Earth, trying to measure something on Earth.

                If I'm in some multi-galaxy civilization, you being in the Milky Way can be as relevant as you being in a particular country on Earth.

                As for climate denial...this is TDS on steroids again

                It's almost like you folks have zero grasp of history. Things didn't start today. This has been an obvious pattern for at least the last 15 years.

                What I am saying very precisely is that a 4 meter shift in the pole or even a 40 meter shift on the pole is irrelevant

                Only because you don't understand the use of that information.

                The effects of a shift in the pole can leave geological evidence. Which means we can use this information to try

                • So, facts become untrue when you don't like the political implication of them

                  When linguistic tricks are used to justify theft from me as being "science based" then you're damn right I call out the lying and the sloppy thinking. Otherwise, I might just shake my head quietly.

              • by jbengt ( 874751 )

                What I am saying very precisely is that a 4 meter shift in the pole or even a 40 meter shift on the pole is irrelevant. And using it as evidence of a crisis is dishonest.

                First, the study did not use this as evidence of a crisis. No need to create a straw man to beat down.

                Second, the study corrected for other known causes of pole drift, and then asked, what's the cause of the rest?
                It then modeled the effects of ice melting (which they said is difficult because the data for that is not as good as other k

                • And that's a fine piece of work that will enable higher accuracy space-based geodesy among other things.

                  But my objection was to the slashdot headline strongly implying that the secular drift in the mean pole at about 1 m/decade is a crisis. "Climate crisis shifts earth's axis" is a rather catastrophic sounding thing if you don't have context to know that the shift is small and irrelevant to just about anything.

            • by jm007 ( 746228 )

              take another look at my post and up your comprehension level; don't mischaracterize what I say; you're so eager to dismiss others you've skipped over a good-faith question/comment... makes you guilty of the same one-sided agenda pushing that is pointed out by my comment

              you feel certain in your assessment and nobody else gets to think about it on their own nor question anything, just take what you say as unassailable truth

              fuck you and your tyrannical, oppressive mindset; I think for myself and hope others

              • fuck you and your tyrannical, oppressive mindset; I think for myself and hope others will, too

                Make sure you drill for and refine your own oil before driving a car. You wouldn't want to trust those scientists that claim the stuff from the Exxon station is just as good.

                Once again, truth is knowable. You not liking the truth doesn't change that.

                • by jm007 ( 746228 )

                  good lord, now you're just trolling

                  I gave you a chance to persuade and inform, but all you have is ''... cuz I said so ..." which is no doubt how it was explained to you

                  too weak for me, but perfect for you

        • by jm007 ( 746228 )

          here's another truth... you've added nothing to the discussion

  • Four Meters (Score:4, Insightful)

    by cirby ( 2599 ) on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:16PM (#61305550)

    "This is a crisis, the poles have shifted because of Global Warming"

    "Four meters."

    "It's speeding up!"

    "Four meters."

    "Why aren't you panicking?"

    "FOUR. FRIGGING. METERS. IN FORTY YEARS."

    • Re:Four Meters (Score:5, Interesting)

      by reg ( 5428 ) <reg@freebsd.org> on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:41PM (#61305678) Homepage

      Don't be an idiot. They're not concerned by the poles shifting. They're showing that the shift in the poles can validate the historical data of ice loss before it was measurable with the GRACE satellites. Ice loss in that period is mostly anecdotal (very few people live permanently on large ice sheets). So the estimation methods are based on images and other marginally reliable techniques, leading to that data being questioned. This shows that the historical data is in line with the observed polar drift, which has already been shown in more recent times to be caused by ice loss, meaning that the data is reliable and can be used in other climate models.

      • That's cute. Pole wander measurement to the scale of meters requires electronic measurement techniques like GPS or VLBI. Grace launched in the 2000s. Laser geodesy spheres launched in the 1970s. Before then, there were no measurements to comparable precision or accuracy that would let you go into the past beyond what we already have in the can.

        • by jbengt ( 874751 )

          That's cute. Pole wander measurement to the scale of meters requires electronic measurement techniques like GPS or VLBI.

          Well, actually,according to the study:

          Polar motion, which is the motion of the Earth's rotational axis relative to its crust, has been routinely observed using space geodetic observation techniques for more than a century (Anderle, 1973; Anderle & Beuglass, 1970).

          • And how pray tell were those measurements made? That is to say what was the accuracy of pre-electronic pole wander measurement?

            Glad you asked. It was done with optical telescopes. Which is fine for measuring the angles between stars to sub-arcsecond accuracy, but to measure the rotational axis of the Earth relative to a distant star you need a high accuracy clock and/or a high accuracy mechanical angle measurement.

            100 years ago, getting an angle to .1 arcsec that way repeatably, to many distant (that is fai

      • by jm007 ( 746228 )

        when you lead with an insult, you've made making your point that much more difficult

        maybe that's not your intention, but true nonetheless

        something to think about

    • Even if it were more, the very formation of the glaciers at the poles would have caused shifts (presumably larger) in the past. The world is always in a state of flux regardless of what we do to it and the other consequences of how we alter our environment have far greater ramifications.
    • Is four meters in forty years a big number or a small number? Is it getting bigger or smaller? You provide no context, you just proceed to the (uninformed) laughter.

      https://vesl.jpl.nasa.gov/sea-... [nasa.gov] shows the components relative to each other, and for two time series. You can that the Greenland melt component is big and getting bigger

    • Thats how much earlier the spring is coming now a days. Forsythia blooms in the middle of March now. Used to in the middle of April. And crocus breaks through frost in January.

      Already urban heat islands and local micro climate are allowing vermin to winter over more easily, they get more breeding cycles too.

      Tulips need six weeks of hard frost, else they don't bloom. Already we have lost, may be a 50 mile wide swath all the way across USA where tulips are gone.

      It is going to get a weed or bug that both

  • by Tony Isaac ( 1301187 ) on Friday April 23, 2021 @01:26PM (#61305598) Homepage

    How did we demonstrate that it was melting ice, and not some other factor, that caused the shift?

  • by MacMann ( 7518492 ) on Friday April 23, 2021 @02:03PM (#61305772)

    Can we have some nuclear power plants built now that global warming is a crisis? It seems to me that whatever problems nuclear fission power might cause is nothing compared to a global crisis. Nuclear power is the lowest CO2 energy source we have and this crisis is from CO2 produced from our energy production. If we can't have nuclear power then how can this be anything close to a crisis.

    I'll act like this is a global warming crisis as soon as the world's politicians act like it is a crisis. To me that means saying global warming is more expensive than nuclear power. Global warming is more dangerous than nuclear power. That we have to use all means to lower CO2, even those that in any other circumstance would be considered batshit crazy.

    Instead we see Germany closing nuclear power plants while digging for coal. If solar power is cheaper than coal then why the fuck is anyone in the world still digging for coal? I have people say that it would be foolish to not use "free" solar energy. How is solar power any more "free" than coal? To get that solar power we still have to dig in the dirt for silicon, aluminum, and whatever else. That's not free. I guess it is free in that all we have to do is go pick it up. Solar power is not free, it is in fact very expensive. This is especially true at local midnight.

    Climate crisis my ass. If this was a crisis then the politicians would be telling the anti-nuclear, anti-environmental, anti-human morons to shut the fuck up, then they'd be building nuclear power plants to save their own ass from this crisis.

    That's not saying global warming is not a problem, just that it is not a crisis. If it were a crisis then we'd see government intervention on the level of a world war. They'd be demanding technologies that provide the most energy with the least CO2. That means nuclear power plants providing our electricity. That means nuclear powered ships for moving people and cargo. That means synthesizing carbon neutral fuels for aircraft and other transportation.

    Is CO2 from human activity a problem? I believe so. A crisis? Apparently not.

    • Some green party people have now realized that nuclear was the solution to the CO2 issue all along. But they get ferociously attacked by the (mostly) upper-class millennial and younger zealots (Fridays for Future et. al), who still think the only way forward is to destroy everything their forebears spent time and energy to construct, without offering any reliable and workable replacements.

      It's only a crisis insofar as the government will use it as an excuse to tax us even more, to spend the extra money on "

      • by Uberbah ( 647458 )

        Some green party people have now realized that nuclear was the solution to the CO2 issue all along.

        As much as 6,000 square foot mansions built out of asbestos are a solution to the homeless problem, sure. Nuclear power is insane and utterly unjustifiable.

    • Can we have some nuclear power plants built now that global warming is a crisis?

      No. If you believe it's a crisis, you don't have time to far around for decades building new radioactive water heaters when wind and solar can be rolled out in a fraction of the time for a fraction of the cost - and none of the long term risks and toxic waste management.

      • Then why hasn't this happened already? Wind and solar power are not new. This has been a recognized problem for decades. There's been no government policies in the way of wind and solar power, quite the opposite. Wind and solar power have been given every advantage in government polices to replace nuclear power, and have been for decades, and yet nuclear power plants still produce far more power to the grid than wind and solar power.

        The reason wind and solar power have not replaced nuclear power is beca

  • Where is Hitler? He needs to invade Poland and stop these drifters.
  • What is up to you might be down to someone else.

    Who really gives a shit whether the axis of rotation is here? Or over there?

    Ultimately it does not matter. Your definition of what the "right temperature is for Earth" is about as non-consequential in our Universe as practically anything I can imagine.

    You are so small in the whole scheme of things as to be practically un-measurable on a scale as large as the Universe.

  • I suspect the same scientists also believe, like several US Congressmen (D)s, that we cannot add more people to Guam lest it tip over into the Pacific Ocean
  • A planetary pathogen, granted... But it's silly to call us "not nature".

    Even if this will be the worst extinction event the planet has ever seen (it is already one, but not yet the worst), Earth will move on, life will flourish again, and it most likely will be for the better.

  • Let me know when it's 20,000m, then I can finally have a winter Xmas.

  • There's been an enormous INCREASE in mass of Antarctica in the last 40 years, might this not affect the axis of rotation?
    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/g... [nasa.gov]

  • The magnetic pole(s) may be gradually shifting, but the center of mass (axis of rotation)?

    Sounds to me like “fake news”. [*smirk*]

    I call b.s. (Specifically, The Guardian is not a reliable science source, let alone news source. It is a tabloid fishwrap, at best. Caveat emptor.)

    • Specifically, The Guardian is not a reliable science source, let alone news source. It is a tabloid fishwrap, at best. Caveat emptor.

      Well, it's no Fox News or Epoch Times, but cut them some slack.

  • > The scientists found the direction of polar drift shifted from southward to eastward in 1995

    That statement is a bit wrong. The south pole can never drift south... The north pole can ONLY drift south... Right?

"When the going gets tough, the tough get empirical." -- Jon Carroll

Working...