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Health Officials Worry About Possible Lack of Cooperation on Coronavirus Vaccines (politico.com) 324

Global health officials and diplomats are "alarmed" by America's "apparent lack of interest in cooperation" on international efforts for a vaccine against Covid-19. Slashdot reader Charlotte Web quotes this report from Politico: The fear is that Trump will be content with allowing the race to develop and distribute the vaccine to devolve into a global contest -- and that poorer countries will be left behind in the rush to procure doses. In essence: that the president's "America First" view of world affairs as an atavistic scramble for power will lead to unnecessary suffering and death. "The worst situation would be, if when these tools are available, they go to the highest bidder -- that would be terrible for the world," said Melinda Gates, who, along with her tech entrepreneur husband, Bill, leads a powerful foundation that has devoted billions to health research. "Covid-19 anywhere is Covid-19 everywhere. And that's why it's got to take global cooperation."

The ongoing global scramble for masks, gloves and other personal protective gear offers a harrowing and potentially instructive example. Now imagine, officials and experts say, a similar competition to obtain vaccine doses: It could drag out the health crisis by letting the virus spread for longer than it otherwise might, devastating the very countries least equipped to fight it... It's not just the U.S. that has put the needs of its own citizens first. Dozens of countries, including the U.S. and some in Europe, have imposed travel restrictions as well as limits on the exports of masks and other critical medical equipment. Global health leaders are trying to avoid a repeat of such nationalist tactics when it comes to vaccines and other types of medicines that could combat Covid-19.

"Health officials and analysts caution that it's too early to go into full-fledged panic about a looming global vaccine fistfight," the article notes.

But it also points out that "There's no binding treaty or other mechanism that governs how a vaccine will be produced and distributed worldwide."
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Health Officials Worry About Possible Lack of Cooperation on Coronavirus Vaccines

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  • by Anonymous Coward
    As far I understand from actual experts, coronavirus vaccines don't have a good track record. Their effectiveness is limited.

    Drug treatments may be the better option.
    • Seems to me that there should be free market dynamics for this work. They can cooperate if it leads to lower costs and faster development times for all involved. Competition is a good thing, it means we will get better and better products and services, vaccines included
    • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @05:03PM (#60018568)

      Their effectiveness is limited.

      For herd immunity, limited effectiveness is good enough.

      With no social distancing, C19 has an R0 between 2.5 and 3.0.

      We just need to get R0 below 1.0.

      With a vaccine effectiveness of 70%, life can go back to normal.

      • by mark-t ( 151149 )

        With no social distancing, C19 has an R0 between 2.5 and 3.0.

        Is that estimate based on current data? It seems a little low, if you ask me. I thought it was more like about 5 or 6, roughly twice that of SARS-CoV1.

        • A higher R0 estimate was based on patient-zero occurring in late December.

          It is now believed that that patient-zero was in November.

        • April 7th
          https://www.forbes.com/sites/t... [forbes.com]
          "The COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease May Be Twice As Contagious As We Thought"
          "A single person with COVID-19 may be more likely to infect up to 5 or 6 other people, rather than 2 or 3, suggests a new study of Chinese data from the CDC. Itâ(TM)s not clear if this higher number applies only to the cases in China or if it will be similar in other countries.
          If the higher number does remain true elsewhere, it means that more people in a population need to be immune fro

          • "A single person with COVID-19 may be more likely to infect up to 5 or 6 other people, rather than 2 or 3

            Hey! Let's do math!

            Figure "Patient-Zero" was in November, and the serial interval is 9 days.

            So from November through March (before lockdowns) is 17 generations.

            2.5 ^ 17 = 5.8 million infections (in the right ballpark)
            5.5 ^ 17 = 3.8 trillion infections (wrong by six orders of magnitude)

            So is R0 between 5 and 6? I don't think so.

            • Let's do facts...

              https://www.drugs.com/news/fir... [drugs.com]
              "The patient was brought to the University of California, Davis, Medical Center from another hospital on Feb. 19, the Associated Press reported. The patient was on ventilator support upon arrival."

              https://covidtracking.com/data... [covidtracking.com]

              Thu, Feb 27... 2 cases.
              Fri, Feb 28... 9 cases. (worldometer reported 62 cases that day-- Trump said 15 in his press conference)
              Fri Mar 6 387 cases.
              Fri Mar 13 3004 cases. (7.5x prior week) (lockdowns and quarantines starting)
              Fri

  • "The fear is ..." (Score:3, Insightful)

    by I75BJC ( 4590021 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @04:51PM (#60018532)
    "The fear is" the driving force behind Leftists at Politico.

    Why live in "fear" of something that might never happen?

    Why complain about "stuff" that may or may not happen?

    Bill Gates says that a vaccine is 9 months out; some medical sources are estimating 12 to 18 months; one news reports said years and years.
    With the Trump administration already allocating ventilator shipments to foreign countries (and Third World countries at that), why do some Leftists think the same thing won't happen if the USA/Trump Administration has vaccines?
    Do these Leftists believe that the Biden (or whatever Democrat runs for POTUS) will lose? Because Gates' estimate of 9 months puts the vaccine AFTER the 2021 inauguration?

    Puzzling Bullshit!
    • "The fear is" the driving force behind Leftists at Politico.

      Their point is that cooperation is better than competition. After all, that is why the Soviet Union won the Cold War.

      • by See Attached ( 1269764 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @05:28PM (#60018616)
        See also: States are competing for PPE to raise prices DURING an epidemic. We need to find out who thought that was a good idea, and publically ack their helpfulness. Another reason US went for its own testing and wants to monetize Covid Vaccine. Is that leadership? We need to reinvent the relationship between money and healthcare. Imagine Shkreli running the CDC... .lets not go there.
        • We need to find out who thought that was a good idea

          It is a good idea. If you want to incentivize more production of PPE, the best way to do that is to offer the manufacturers more money.

          They are paying for extra shifts, overtime, training for new workers, and rushed maintenance on equipment. Many of them are setting up new ad-hoc assembly lines that are less efficient than purpose-built lines.

          Should they just be expected to eat those costs?

          Perhaps you should show some financial gratitude toward those who are helping the most, instead of begrudging them fa

          • by See Attached ( 1269764 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @06:36PM (#60018826)
            Having states compete with each other seems a bad idea. States with more money get the masks. Just saying, doesn't make sense during a pandemic.
            • Would the states not competing somehow ensure that there's a greater supply of PPE? Of course not.

              Just because something doesn't make sense to you doesn't mean it ceases to behave in a particular way, even during a pandemic. As Bill pointed out the way to ensure that there is sufficient supply to meet demand is by allowing those willing to pay higher prices to do so which creates the financial incentive and ability to produce more. Higher prices also have the effect of limiting overconsumption because pe
              • by orlanz ( 882574 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @11:05PM (#60019452)

                This doesn't quite work out that way in stressed situations. Due to a few factors:

                1. It takes time to ramp up production to meet the market demand. It also takes time to forecast said demand and assess the risk of producing X quantities for Y demand at Z prices with Rx risks. In times of crisis, these are so skewed & dynamic that usually private enterprise doesn't see a ROI and doesn't partake. Historically, the political sectors have taken the risk because they can shift the price after the fact (taxes, bonds, inflation, legal forfeit, etc) and still come back to a net zero.

                2. It doesn't send supply to the locations that actually need it. It sends it to locations that have the capital to pay. But, pandemics aren't so picky in their deliveries. One location under supplied (for whatever reason) will overload on the pandemic and still spill into the locations that are oversupplied. Just because you are over stocked on something doesn't mean you have the logistics to utilize it at various rates of consumption.

                3. Drugs aren't like burgers. People don't take 2 because there is a 50% off promotion. You only need to look at Canada for an example. They buy X supply of common drugs every year to keep the price at Y for everyone. This results in a far lower price for the drug than the laissez faire US market.

                And the way it works globally is simple. Poor countries will simply ignore the patents and produce on their own at their own cost. Or like India, use that as an ultimatum to force the drug company to sell at Y cost domestically. This hits ROI so the companies raise prices in places like the US to compensate OR ask for a govt handout as said govt can't protect them from other govts. The WTO _may_ allow retaliatory actions a few years after the pandemic... assuming the hurt countries are "heartless" enough to bring it up. Democracies usually have a hard time doing so.

          • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

            by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 )

            It's a great idea if you want 1,186,073 cases and 68,552 deaths.

            MAGA! USA #1! USA USA USA!

            No one will have as big an outbreak as U.S.. Lotsa people will talk about it. Everyone knows it!

        • by sycodon ( 149926 )

          US, "went for it's own testing" because the FDA has a sever case of Not Invented Here

      • by dryeo ( 100693 )

        I misread that as,

        Their point is that cooperation is better than competition. After all, that is why the Soviet Union won the Second World War.

        But as you say, that cooperation between east and west led to losing WWII

      • "Their point is that cooperation is better than competition." - the better example is the EU - 28 (soon to be 27 due to one idiot nation channelling trump) sovereign nations co-operating in most things. Soviet Union was created by force.
    • by Randj Herdle ( 6067832 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @08:34PM (#60019118)

      Why live in "fear" of something that might never happen?

      A substantial number of people live in fear of burning in Hell. Next question...

  • The American President is not without his flaws, but his America First world view is an appeal to his base, and it is completely unlikely to get in the way if he finds himself in a position to say, "We saved the World."

    This is sensationalism. Say what you will, but America wouldn't allow the creation of a vaccine to be politicized for gains in the international power struggle... regardless of the wishes of a few.

    • above my health. By all accounts this is what he did with testing. e.g. he held off using a foreign made test so that an American made one could be created (and profited from). I could absolutely see him doing that with a vaccine. i.e. refusing one patented in Germany so as to profit from one patented here.
      • The dominating impetus that is likely to spare us from the baser instincts of men, is that the country (and the World) reopening is the single most important plank in the Trump reelection platform.

        Ego may continue to be a problem, yet survival instincts (which in this case are all about "the good" we can do with four more years) will rise to the top like the cream most likely to cause a cardiac event.

    • Is a power scramble atavistic?
      • Heh. It's a stretch.

        "The definition of an atavism is a genetic trait that reoccurs after skipping several generations. If a person has blue eyes like her great great grandmother but her mother, grandmother, and great grandmother have brown eyes, then having blue eyes is an example of an atavism."

        It's also clearly a way to explain genetic traits that very unfortunately don't resemble the presumptive parents.

        Regarding one of mankind's basest natures, to use every situation for personal gain, atavism would seem to suggest that this behavioral trait would have had to skip a few generations.

  • by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @04:56PM (#60018548)
    This should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone. When we elected him, Trump was VERY clear on his attitude towards the rest of the world. America first. We'll deal with people outside our borders when it benefits us, and we'll ignore them any other time. Trump and his supporters are quite proud of this.

    Don't think that something like a little pandemic is going to change this. He sees it as his job to implement the views of the most vocal conservatives who voted for him. Nobody else. No matter what. One could debate that perhaps the president is supposed to represent the ENTIRE population, but that's a different discussion. This specific president sees it differently: his mandate is to enact a very specific form of conservatism, and screw the rest of the people. They lost the election and didn't vote for him.

    If the red states start suffering badly, you'll see him change his tune VERY quickly. As long as it's mostly in the cities, you can expect almost nothing except window dressing from the executive branch.

    Elections have consequences. We don't get the best leaders. We don't get the leaders we deserve. We get the leaders we ask for. We, the people, asked for this. And hoo boy did we get it.
    • Sure elections have consequences, but your election is affecting far more people in the world than are allowed to vote in it.
      • but your election is affecting far more people in the world than are allowed to vote in it.

        That's pretty much true of any national level elections in the world. I"m pretty sure more than 50M people worldwide are affected by the French elections, for instance....

        • Except France hasn't taken a stance of specifically helping France against anyone else.
        • What I'm trying to say is, once you show more outward, calculated, hostility towards other nations you take more of the blame of what happens to them as well.
      • Then perhaps you should work on increasing the importance and influence of your nation? Or you could move to the US, become a citizen, and vote here, too...
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by larryjoe ( 135075 )

      We, the people, asked for this. And hoo boy did we get it.

      We, meaning the 46.1% of voters that voted for Trump, got what they asked for. We, meaning the 53.9% majority of voters, didn't get what they asked for. Yes, it's all according to the US electoral system and the Constitution, so it's legal. However, let's not pretend that the majority asked for this president.

    • Elections have consequences. We don't get the best leaders. We don't get the leaders we deserve.

      No, I'm pretty sure we got the leader we deserve.

      • We got the leader the party leaders (Democrat and Republican) deserve. The rest of us got shafted---as usual.

    • If the red states start suffering badly, you'll see him change his tune VERY quickly.

      Not really. Trump was more than willing to leave the agricultural sector hanging while getting into a pissing contest with China. The notion that he's particularly unique in regards to serving a limited group or his own self interests is rather silly on the face of it. Most politicians are the same. In an odd way he's been unusually honest in the sense that he's generally tried to do what he campaigned on even though I and a lot of others had just written it off as absurd rhetoric to appeal to his base. He

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Elections have consequences. We don't get the best leaders. We don't get the leaders we deserve. We get the leaders we ask for. We, the people, asked for this. And hoo boy did we get it.

      Exactly. Trump is not the problem, he is just an indicator. The real problem is those that voted for him and a long history of those that made sure no appealing candidates were available because of how they voted before.

  • by phantomfive ( 622387 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @05:00PM (#60018558) Journal
    Countries are definitely cooperating in terms of knowledge sharing, and even China shared the sequenced genome of the virus with the rest of the world.

    So what the articles are worried about is once a vaccine is found, in the space of time before there is enough vaccine for everyone, who should get the vaccine first? And it seems really obvious that vaccines manufactured in China will be used in China, vaccines manufactured in the USA will be used in the USA, and the same for Europe; until there are enough to cover local needs and spread them elsewhere. (whether that's fair or not, that is the default.)

    I'm definitely open to something different, but the articles linked don't give any alternative. They just criticize the USA because *reasons*. The US has 30 formal treaty allies with leading scientific research communities. So what exactly do the authors of these articles propose?
    • >"So what the articles are worried about is once a vaccine is found, in the space of time before there is enough vaccine for everyone, who should get the vaccine first? And it seems really obvious that vaccines manufactured in China will be used in China, vaccines manufactured in the USA will be used in the USA"

      +1 Bingo. A rational posting.

      >"They just criticize the USA because *reasons*."

      Because, "feelings"

      "America First" doesn't mean "nowhere else, ever." I am sure data and info will be freely exc

      • and if the vaccine is developed elsewhere (which is highly likely) watch that tune change too "the most vulnerable first regardless of country"
  • by Computershack ( 1143409 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @05:02PM (#60018566)
    It's a two way deal. If he wants to do that then fine but don't be surprised if another nation such as the UK gets there first and decides to give Trump a taste of his own medicine.
  • by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @05:04PM (#60018574)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by burtosis ( 1124179 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @05:09PM (#60018586)
    It’s simple economics. Get a monopoly on a product people need to go back to living a normal life, or risk permanent lung and or kidney damage and a small risk of death. Use those pressures to extort the maximum amount of money possible. How much is being able to work a normal job again or return to a normal social life worth to people? 10k USD? 20k? Why would anyone cooperate and wind up having to give the vaccine away for 10 bucks? That’s like sharing a lottery ticket when you have have the money to buy it yourself.

    The very idea of altruism, cooperation, being open and transparent, and helping the most people while reducing the cost runs against the principles of capitalism and don’t figure in at all unless it directly and immediately affects the bottom line. This is why civilized countries temper capitalism with heavy regulation, especially in healthcare where the goal of maximizing profits is in a whole other boat from doing the most good. It’s also why Americans pay double of any other country for substandard medical care that has worse outcomes than at least the leading twenty to thirty countries of the world.
    • Other vaccines are fairly priced. Nearly all of the "shocker" drug prices are for diseases that only affect a small number of people. The alternative to those high prices is usually no drug at all.

      If you really believe that altruism and cooperation help poor countries more than competition, then you need to read some history books.

      Profit-seeking capitalists have done far more good for developing countries than well-intentioned do-gooders.

      • Except that we have been reading about shocker prices on Epipens in America. Didn't realize diabetes only affected a small amount of people.
        • Sorry, I meant 'allergies' not 'diabetes'.
        • Except that we have been reading about shocker prices on Epipens in America.

          The drug in EpiPens (epinephrine) has been manufactured for more than a century.

          There is no patent on autoinjectors.

          So if you feel the price should be lower, why aren't you making it happen?

          • No patent is a lie. There was a patent valid through 2025 [wikipedia.org] but a lawsuit allowed a single second company to make another auto injector starting 2012. In Canada and the UK the prices are set by the government [reuters.com]and cost 1/6th and 1/18th the cost yet they still sell them at a profit. To this day, patent fights rage in American courts to try and keep other foreign made injectors out of the hands of the public at reasonable cost.
      • what it does in every other other civilized country and have a single payer system that negotiates prices by using it's buying power to keep prices down. And failing that the gov't could directly manufacture the drug if other companies refuse.

        This works great literally everywhere else on earth but here in America where we pretend the outside world doesn't exist.
    • >"The very idea of altruism, cooperation, being open and transparent, and helping the most people while reducing the cost runs against the principles of capitalism"

      First, there is "public relations." That can greatly affect consumers' feelings and actions regarding a company. Or are you saying you NEVER consider what a company does before consuming their products? Then there is the "if people die or are treated badly, we will have no customers and also go out of business" dilemma. And then there is t

      • First, there is "public relations." That can greatly affect consumers' feelings and actions regarding a company. Or are you saying you NEVER consider what a company does before consuming their products?

        It would be a monopoly, that’s the point of not sharing information, not cooperating, not making it open and transparent. Here’s an example, where I live, if I want actual broadband internet (not overpriced cellular or satellite), my choices are Comcast or xfinity. They screw me on the cost, I pay perhaps 5-10 times more for 1/10th the bandwidth of other developed nations. I know I’m getting screwed, but outside of voting there isn’t much I can do about it as broadband service is

        • >"It would be a monopoly, thatâ(TM)s the point of not sharing information, not cooperating, not making it open and transparent. Hereâ(TM)s an example, where I live, if I want actual broadband internet (not overpriced cellular or satellite), my choices are Comcast or xfinity."

          Guess what? Most healthcare monopolies are there BECAUSE the government created them with "certificates of need." And your example of broadband? Also a monopoly created by government. By the way, I have *ONE* choice onl

  • When I read the headline, my first thought was the anti-vaxxer nutjobs who have been coddled for decades by extremely lax laws in the US.

  • Open sourcing the technology by force and allowing it to be mass produced so anyone can get it? Of course not ... they just want to have some global NGO be the one to say who gets the artificially limited number of vaccines.

    Capitalism is bad when it benefits a nation, it is Holy Scripture when it benefits a multinational.

  • Just like has been done with HIV medication. If you can't afford it, then just steal it. Make tons of it and give it away for nearly free.

  • by ClarkMills ( 515300 ) on Sunday May 03, 2020 @07:23PM (#60018974)

    It doesn't take a mastermind to look at the US health system and see that it's been monetised beyond ludicrous mode.
    However it's been a great example to the world of what not to do...

  • leads to more drug production, not less (unless the FDA prevents it).
  • The murder for profit model is now well established in the US Big Pharma business playbook. Turing Pharmaceuticals [wikipedia.org] and insulin prices [bbc.com] are prime examples.

    1. World pandemic

    2. Privatize vaccine creation

    3. Profit!

    Conservatives want to privatize everything because PROFIT! Betsy Devos [wikipedia.org] is the poster child for corrupt business practice. She scammed millions of students with useless and overpriced education and left them mired in debt. Now she is Secretary of Education and is obstructing efforts to help the very

  • I'll be glad to donate my dose of Corona vaccine to some poor dumb slob. Let him be the guinea pig. Hopefully he won't get GBS like the Swine Flu vaccine caused in record numbers.

  • in the first place a long time ago is why everyone is in this mess to begin with. Dollars and Euros and Rubles and Renminbi are only good if people are willing to trade stuff for them. If not, having all the currency in the world might only solve your toilet paper problem for a while and little else. Nations must be self sufficient when it comes to basics like food and medicine. Ideas can flow freely, but manufacturing of actual stuff should not be outsourced.
  • To see if the human trials produce fast zombies (28 Days Later) or nocturnal vampire creatures (I am Legend).

I've noticed several design suggestions in your code.

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