Some Recovered Coronavirus Patients In Wuhan Are Testing Positive Again (npr.org) 206
NPR is reporting that some Wuhan residents in China who had tested positive earlier and then recovered from the disease are testing positive for the virus a second time. It's raising concerns of a possible second wave of cases, as China prepares to lift quarantine measures to allow residents to leave the epicenter of its outbreak next month. From the report: Based on data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for further observation after their discharge from hospitals, about 5%-10% of patients pronounced "recovered" have tested positive again. Some of those who retested positive appear to be asymptomatic carriers -- those who carry the virus and are possibly infectious but do not exhibit any of the illness's associated symptoms -- suggesting that the outbreak in Wuhan is not close to being over.
NPR has spoken by phone or exchanged text messages with four individuals in Wuhan who are part of this group of individuals testing positive a second time in March. All four said they had been sickened with the virus and tested positive, then were released from medical care in recent weeks after their condition improved and they tested negative. One of the Wuhan residents who spoke to NPR exhibited severe symptoms during their first round of illness and was eventually hospitalized. The second resident displayed only mild symptoms at first and was quarantined in one of more than a dozen makeshift treatment centers erected in Wuhan during the peak of the outbreak. But when both were tested a second time for the coronavirus on Sunday, March 22, as a precondition for seeking medical care for unrelated health issues, they tested positive for the coronavirus even though they exhibited none of the typical symptoms, such as a fever or dry cough. The time from their recovery and release to the retest ranged from a few days to a few weeks. One theory is that they were first given a false negative test result. Another theory is that, because the test amplifies tiny bits of DNA, residual virus from the initial infection could have falsely resulted in that second positive reading.
NPR has spoken by phone or exchanged text messages with four individuals in Wuhan who are part of this group of individuals testing positive a second time in March. All four said they had been sickened with the virus and tested positive, then were released from medical care in recent weeks after their condition improved and they tested negative. One of the Wuhan residents who spoke to NPR exhibited severe symptoms during their first round of illness and was eventually hospitalized. The second resident displayed only mild symptoms at first and was quarantined in one of more than a dozen makeshift treatment centers erected in Wuhan during the peak of the outbreak. But when both were tested a second time for the coronavirus on Sunday, March 22, as a precondition for seeking medical care for unrelated health issues, they tested positive for the coronavirus even though they exhibited none of the typical symptoms, such as a fever or dry cough. The time from their recovery and release to the retest ranged from a few days to a few weeks. One theory is that they were first given a false negative test result. Another theory is that, because the test amplifies tiny bits of DNA, residual virus from the initial infection could have falsely resulted in that second positive reading.
A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:5, Insightful)
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This is complicated by the fact that we can't trust a single thing the Chinese government says. Does anyone really believe their number of infected people stopped rising a week ago? Right after foreign press were expelled from China? All their numbers are BS until proven otherwise.
Is this re-infection a real thing? Could be, though we've mainly heard about it from China, it's at least a medically possible thing. Or is China looking for a way to fudge their numbers. As always, we'll have to look to Ita
Re:A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:5, Informative)
"Does anyone really believe their number of infected people stopped rising a week ago? Right after foreign press were expelled from China?"
Hardly all foreign press:
"Its foreign ministry ordered reporters from the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal to return media passes within 10 days. The papers criticised the move, which will affect at least 13 reporters."
"Beijing has said that the expulsions were a response to the Trump administration’s decision to limit the number of Chinese citizens from five state-controlled media outlets who could work in the United States to 100"
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The tests they are exporting for goodwill (=PR) purposes have a 70-80% failure rate. If that's anything to go on, these tests aren't characterized by sensitivity and specificity but rather two other things: jack and shit. and jack is having his organs removed for practicing falun gong.
On top of that, yes, it could all be lies too.
Re:A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:4, Informative)
mainstream Spanish newspaper: https://elpais.com/sociedad/20... [elpais.com]
left UK: https://www.theguardian.com/wo... [theguardian.com]
right US: https://www.foxnews.com/world/... [foxnews.com]
for some reason the reports from Czechia are coming into US from solely right-wing sources but they are consistent with Spain: https://www.nationalreview.com... [nationalreview.com]
Re: A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:2)
As ever with China, make sure you donâ(TM)t buy fakes.
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If you can explain how, I'm pretty sure you will have earned yourself some kind of award. I can pretty much guarantee that unless it's a "proudly chinese brand" selling from their own "proudly chinese store", it is 100% fake and product description is a work of fiction.
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From that article: The Chinese embassy in Spain on Thursday said the Spanish government bought a batch of faulty Covid-19 testing kits from an unauthorized Chinese company...[named]Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology.
“The Chinese Ministry of Commerce offered Spain a list of certifi
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The Lizards are totally in control!
Don't you read Twitter?
Re:A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:5, Insightful)
There is some truth to that in general. Definitely it was very true in the past.
But now, once we got past the local Wuhan officials going into denial and hiding the problem, China has been one of the most reliable sources of information and advice we've had for covid-19. Without their sequencing data in particular testing would have been delayed. Their rapid scientific publishing of their experiences exemplary, their successful handling of the crisis a beacon of hope we can all look to.
On the other hand, have you tried listening to the advice coming from the leader of the USA and his state departments? Pure, unadulterated bullshit. And I am using the technical definition of bullshit - it's not an attempt to lie, it's total disinterest in the truth. The bullshitter says whatever he thinks advances his interests at the time - whether it's true or not is irrelevant. In this case that means the truth about whether it will kill 100k or 10M fellow US citizens is irrelevant.
For covid-19, there as been a complete inversion. China is one of the best sources of information, and US government one of the worst in the world if not the worst. I don't know how that has been perceived in the USA, but for the rest of us it's been gob smacking, disorienting, and a wake up call.
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China does not report positive infected people that are asymptomatic.
That right there, throws out all fatality rate numbers from them or as a whole.
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China does not report positive infected people that are asymptomatic.
You are an idiot.
a) how would you know that?
b) why would they?
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This is China. The burden of proof is on you if you assert they're not lying.
Obviously, more sick people in China makes China look bad. Winnie the Pooh doesn't want to look bad. That's all that's needed.
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This is China. The burden of proof is on you if you assert they're not lying.
No it is not. The burden of proof is on the person who makes a claim.
You think they are lying, so proof it.
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You claim they are telling the truth, so prove it. Hey, anyone can play this game.
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I'm not saying they are telling the truth.
I'm saying: you do not know the truth. Big - even huge - difference.
Re: A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:2)
Re:A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:5, Insightful)
Simple logic ought to be enough.
If China doesn't have it under control they would be suffering worse than Spain, Italy and the US.
Their rate of deaths would be absolutely enormous by now. Way too big to hide. And every Chinese city would look like Wuhan did.
A billion camera phones, where are all the pics?
There are a huge number of people just like you who would love to show how bad it was. Why haven't any of them?
It's very hard to prove they are telling the truth.
But it should be quite easy to prove that they are lying on such a massive scale if they were.
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"And every Chinese city would look like Wuhan did.
A billion camera phones, where are all the pics?"
The pictures are all in Chinese, you wouldn't understand them.
Re:A kleenex could test positive for coronavirus (Score:5, Informative)
Simple logic ought to be enough.
If China doesn't have it under control they would be suffering worse than Spain, Italy and the US.
Their rate of deaths would be absolutely enormous by now. Way too big to hide. And every Chinese city would look like Wuhan did.
Well let's run through this one at a time. There's plenty of independent reports showing that there's ~45k urns waiting for pickup just in Wuhan. The normal of normal deaths per month is between 5k and 10k. By the big China telecom companies, there are between 10m-21m fewer customers on their networks today, and the numbers aren't increasing if "things are back to normal." Remember, in China your cell is pretty much required for everything.
A billion camera phones, where are all the pics?
There are a huge number of people just like you who would love to show how bad it was. Why haven't any of them?
That one is far easier. You heard about the riots yesterday in Wuhan and Hubei right? As fast as people were posting them on various chinese social media, the state censors were deleting them. A week prior there was another riot. Two weeks before that there were mass public protests. But you didn't hear about 2 of 3 of those events, but I'm sure you heard about the food being delivered in dirty garbage trucks. Why? It suits the politburo, and makes the local officials look bad - aka easier to get rid of them. Remember China's internet isn't. It's an intranet, which is heavily filtered to extremely limited internet.
It's very hard to prove they are telling the truth.
But it should be quite easy to prove that they are lying on such a massive scale if they were.
Well you don't send 40 incinerators to a single city if you're only dealing with medical waste either, but we know it happened. Their state media even promoted it. We also know that despite the claims that "everything is normal" pollution data shows otherwise, China is still 80-90% shutdown in a "everything is now normal" state.
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I'm an idiot?
Did you even... google it?
Found it here: https://www.npr.org/sections/g... [npr.org]
Quote in the article: "I have no idea why the authorities choose not to count [asymptomatic] cases in the official case count. I am baffled,"
They do not count, infected people that are asymptomatic.
With a little bit of googling, you'll see this mentioned multiple times.
I found one as early as Feb. 20. But stopped digging there, might be mentions of this earlier as well.
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Yes, you are an idiot. ...
Because you claim things no one can know
Simple.
Why you believe such a stupid link is beyond me. ... or even less. Surprisingly Italy has 50% death rate for people older than 70, and USA has an overall death rate of 65% ... why the funk would China hide asymptomatic cases??????????? Are you retarded?
If they had uncounted asymptomatic cases, their death rate would look superb!!! Because instead of something close to 5% it would be somewhere around 0.1%
If China would claim it has 100
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Where are you getting your numbers? They sound made up.
The last numbers I saw from Italy showed that their death rate was 16.9% for people in their 70s, and 24% for people 80 and over. And the overall U.S. coronavirus death rate is about 1.5%, not 65%.
Maybe you meant that 50% of Italy's deaths were in people over 70?
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You state "USA has an overall death rate of 65%" and I'm the idiot?
The US death rate currently sits around 1.65%. Thats with many many tests to go.
https://www.nature.com/article... [nature.com]
https://www.theguardian.com/wo... [theguardian.com]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news... [bloomberg.com]
https://www.ft.com/content/4aa... [ft.com]
You should stop while you are ahead. You have proven your are ignorant, there is no further need of proof.
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" Surprisingly Italy has 50% death rate for people older than 70, and USA has an overall death rate of 65% .."
Those were all smokers when it still was 'cool'.
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He knows that because a Chinese newspaper reported it: A third of coronavirus cases may be ‘silent carriers’, classified Chinese data suggests [scmp.com].
But notice the contradiction: the Chinese effectively self reported it via their newspapers. You could go all conspiratorial about it, or you can look around and notice everyone has a different way of reporting the figures. Where I live, Australia, the state of NSW does the best job of reporting the data. I have no idea how many
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China does not report positive infected people that are asymptomatic.
That right there, throws out all fatality rate numbers from them or as a whole.
~cbeaudry
The rate as measured in China is insignificant to the losses of human life in Italy (9x that of Wuhan) and Spain (approaching twice).
Why do you ignore Italy and Spain's metaphorical forest to speculate about a Tree in Beijing? Is it to believe you're doing something to protect your investments?
This thread is about indicators of COVID-19's pesistence. What are you contributing exactly?
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And I am using the technical definition of bullshit - it's not an attempt to lie, it's total disinterest in the truth. The bullshitter says whatever he thinks advances his interests at the time - whether it's true or not is irrelevant. .... I don't know how that has been perceived in the USA, but for the rest of us it's been gob smacking, disorienting, and a wake up call.
A lot of us see it. We saw it before he was elected. He spits out whatever will get a positive reaction, and if questioned about any uncomfortable details, just handwaves it away.
That pattern has been constant through his whole presidency. There hasn't been a wake up call for me, or many people I know, because this isn't anything new. Anything he says has zero basis in reality. If it happens to be true, it's only because it happened to benefit him.
It's immediately apparent to many of us, but it's becom
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Either people will become more wise, or our country is going to collapse.
Yeah, probably neither.
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How is it accurate, when the CCP already admitted the stopped testing almost 5 weeks ago.
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I'm curious if you have reading problems. Your answer is in the post I already linked. And much like before your inability to do research beyond a link, says more about you, then me. As for why there are still daily cases being found in China? Why don't you ask them why they just admitted that they failed to disclosed there are still nearly 1500 asymptomatic carriers. And why CCTV just finished leaking documents that the CCP did not disclose another 43k cases in order to keep their numbers down.
You got
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The true numbers of who was infected will come out if they start a wide screen for antibodies. If you were actually infected you'll have antibodies whether you were symptomatic or not. Unfortunately, the bean counters will likely come up with a good reason not to spend the money on a screen for antibodies to collect just such data.
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There are several serological tests, actually, and they have been in widespread use outside the U.S. for a while. The FDA finally gave tentative approval for their use in the U.S. on Thursday, but that doesn't mean that they didn't exist before; we just couldn't get them.
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Generally speaking, having a contagious infection means it's living in you, and you're likely spreading it. Though yes, a sensitive enough test could detect a viral load that your body is already eradicating and would never reach the contagious stage. On the other hand, there's not really any way to know that except to allow it to run its course. It only takes a single virus and a bit of bad luck to establish an infection - viruses breed fast enough to make bacteria look celibate in comparison (typically
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Generally speaking, ...Like any parasite - killing your host is counterproductive.
~Immerman
How do all three hypotheses virus-first, escape, and reduction support your claim?
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They're largely irrelevant. How viruses started has little to do with the parasitic niche they've evolved into.
Parasitic behavior shares a large number of traits across wildly different species - and one of the really common themes is that killing your host, directly or indirectly, is a bad thing. Even humans have incorporated the lesson into our cultures "Don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs" as one manifestation.
Rebound (Score:5, Informative)
Dr. Fauci said yesterday that this (a rebound) might happen, and if it didn't rebound it would cycle into the next season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrWAqpPGAxQ
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I hope he remembered to thank the President before he started talking about the disease...
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most likely explanation (Score:2)
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I would imagine that when you see it come back positive, indicating a potential reinfection, you'd run a second test to make sure of it before you announce it to the whole world.
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No. They are not "recatching" it. (Score:5, Interesting)
Researches have done a test on a handful of monkeys. They infected the monkeys with Covid19 and then they ran a bunch of tests on the monkeys. One of them had some negative tests. They examined the monkey and they found that he continually had the virus I.e. with a test that is wrong 30% of the time some false negatives will pop up at some point. All monkeys had all signs of the virus expelled from their immune system 28 days later.
Even with a test that is 85% accurate, when you test thousands of people you are going to have a significant number of false negative tests.
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There is no such thing as a perfect test. EVERY test will either have a nonzero false positive rate or a nonzero false negative rate. The trick is to design the test so that it give you USEFUL false results.
For a screening test, you want NO false negatives, which means you are willing to accept a certain false positive rate. Those false positives are just notifications that you need to take a closer look at this patient, using a different test or set of tests.
The concept is similar to constant false alar
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From what I've read, RT-PCR tests for coronavirus have about 99% specificity, which at least theoretically means that 1% of positive results could be false. When you're dealing with a huge number of tests, even events that occur rarely are still pretty common. :-)
Re: No. They are not "recatching" it. (Score:5, Informative)
Thought you would always test positive (Score:2)
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So much for herd immunity (Score:2)
It was fortunate that even UK backed off from the stupidity of trying to get through with "herd immunity".
leadership (Score:4, Informative)
FEB 25
“You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are getting better. They’re all getting better. As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”
— Donald Trump
https://www.whitehouse.gov/bri... [whitehouse.gov]
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That's fecklessness. He's proceeded to worse.
The governor of Michigan reports that medical vendors under contract to the state tell her they've been told not to deliver anything to Michigan. She hasn't been "nice" to Trump and he's publicly demanded that of governors. Google "two way street".
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Proper link: https://twitter.com/BilldeBlas... [twitter.com]
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Mutation Rate (Score:2)
This thing has a high Mutation Rate; already known and they are tracking many variations of it not the two mentioned a month ago. Not to say that it'll be as deadly but you'll get this thing's decendants multiple times over the span of your life; vaccine or not. It's the flu, they never stop it for long and as every expect said forever, a bad variation will happen someday. This isn't the worst it can be either.
We should have spent more $ developing generic solutions to all flu instead of all this BS we wa
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It mutates slower than flu [npr.org]
So far, researchers who are tracking the genetic changes in SARS-CoV-2 — the official name for the coronavirus — say it seems relatively stable. It acquires about two mutations a month during this process of spread, Harrison says — about one-third to one-half the rate of the flu.
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It really is almost as if someone brilliant designed this virus to evolve much faster than our ability to adapt to it.
Colds are like that, though not usually deadly.
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It really is almost as if someone brilliant designed this virus to evolve much faster than our ability to adapt to it.
~anonymously three studies in their hands
To quote Laurence Fishburne from a certain movie, "It doesn't have anything else to do."
Medcram (Score:2)
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In China, you say? (Score:3)
This is why CDC guidelines for "recovery" (Score:4, Informative)
require two successive negative PCR tests. The test can give a false negative in rare instances, for example if the swab is not properly administered or the sample mishandled or the test bungled.
There may be other rare things going on, like reinfections, or false positive tests due to sample contamination, but a 5% false negative rate under the conditions testing was being conducted in Wuhan at the height of the outbreak would not be surprising.
Not news! (Score:2, Informative)
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"The state health department is now telling primary care practitioners, "Stop testing for COVID-19. We don't have enough resources." What they really mean is that we can't let the population know how deadly serious this disease is becoming."
No, it means, it doesn't matter if you're positive, you'll have to care for the sick in your care until you drop dead.
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No, it means, it doesn't matter if you're positive, you'll have to continue infecting for the sick in your care until you drop dead.
You had a typo; there fixed it for you. Probably the most terrible thing as a doctor. Not knowing if you are actually killing your patients by trying to treat them whilst you are infected but asymptomatic. Johnson and Trump are bathed in blood for not setting up testing facilities when they still had time.
Re: Now this is super nice! (Score:2)
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Good sanitation is a start. Another is not having to be the highest bidder to acquire any supplies. They're running like an auction! They put the market first. This disaster is man made.
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Another is not having to be the highest bidder to acquire any supplies.
Don't leave us in suspense, which bidder do you propose should receive the supplies?
Sell to the lowest bidder?
Random allocation?
Allocations based on political connections?
Wishful thinking?
I bet allocation based on based on wishful thinking is totally immune to being gamed.
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I'm deliberately not buying a mask and making my own since I don't fit into any of the priority groups. I know this puts me at more risk but I couldn'
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Sounds like a good plan if you can tell me who will be making the decisions on who gets to make it on your list. Are you volunteering to evaluate each person's benefit as well as validating their honesty (e.g., checking to make sure their apartment really is small enough to qualify)?
Are you sure you can handle the workload? I mean, I know I can trust you, but I'm not sure I'd trust anybody else to honestly and impartially evaluate each individual's benefit. Especially when your bargain basement prices are g
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You ever heard of triage?
I have, but never in the context of an auction, which is what the post I replied to was talking about.
Of course if you're talking about the use of resources AFTER they've been purchased then triage is a perfectly sensible strategy to use for figuring out what to do with them.
But before you've purchased anything it doesn't make sense at all. Unless you're talking about simply confiscating resources from whoever produced them, in which case, good luck finding another victim after they realize that producing s
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Yes there is... that is one of the reasons for having a pandemic team that ooops... we don't have now anymore.
This is one of the reasons you develop quarantine protocols.
This is one of the reasons executives are given power to shut borders.
This is on of the reasons Congress exists.
This is one of the reasons we have labs and funding for contagious micro-organisms.
Life and Murphy has a way to fuck you by making sure things that can fail do fail and Irony likes to call Murphy the moment you drop your guard.
Pro
Re: Now this is super nice! (Score:2)
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Re: Now this is super nice! (Score:5, Interesting)
There is a correct way to handle this, the truth. How governments are doing themselves a disservice by under reporting infections. As it stands now, those who have minor symptoms or negligible symptoms, are not being tested to ensure those with worse symptoms can be tested. This creates a huge distortion in perception of outcomes for the virus. Likely in reality by far the majority are getting negligible or minor symptoms and are not being tested, which means the more realistic infection rate is three to five times higher than tested confirmed statistics, they want to keep it secret because the idiots think it makes them look bad. The reality it completely screws up statistics for infection and mortality. Those people who only had minor or negligible symptoms were not tested, they did not turn up on the confirmed side and instead appear on the yet to be infected side, which makes it look like far worse is to come when in reality the infection rate is three times as far along. Secondly the mortality rate is probably three times higher than it should be, because those who only get minor or negligible symptoms are excluded from infection rates which makes severe infections and mortality numbers appear far higher than they should, three to five times as high as reality.
This partial testing regimen is generating unnecessary fear in the public, unnecessarily crippling the economy and for those who have been infected and only had negligible or minor symptoms, left wandering when they will catch the 'real' infection. As for people getting reinfected, well yeah, that is the reality but you fight off the infection no problem at always, your immune system has been there and done that, it will respond rapidly, it will show up in tests and the symptoms will likely be more associated with your immune response than the virus.
It is like corrupt politico appointees have complete eliminated competence and scientific soundness from the issue. Like the 1m or 1.5m distance nonsense, has any ever seen thermal images of people coughing or sneezing or even just breathing, that exhalation travels more like 3 to 5 metres quite readily, when caught up in air-conditioning flows tens of metres become quite easy, especially more humid evaporative air-conditioning.
There is a reason why people where full biosuites with a protected air supply because that is all that works with an airborne contagion you fucking idiots. Also if full testing had been done, which would require it to be compulsory and every to regularly test at least once a week, we would find the epidemic is three to five times as far along and mortality rates are a third or less (current mortality only includes confirmed cases and ignores the majority of infections with only negligible or minor symptoms). In trying to make themselves look good by hiding infection rates, they make themselves look bad, reacting poorly to infection rates, when in fact the spread is three to five times as far along and they are reacting to three to fives times as many infections.
It will be over sooner than they expect and the condition is not as severe as current confirmed testing makes it look.
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Abbott Laboratories [mediaroom.com] is going to start manufacturing tests on Monday and will quickly be up to 50,000 tests a day
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Abbott Laboratories is going to start manufacturing tests on Monday and will quickly be up to 50,000 tests a day.
At that rate it will take almost a year to have tests ready for only 5% of the US population. Don't get me wrong - it's great that they're doing it, and the production rate is phenomenal. But to expect those tests to make a dent over the short term is unrealistic; especially given that the US administration refuses to follow the examples of countries such as South Korea whose response has been far more successful than America's is likely ever to be.
Re: Now this is super nice! (Score:4, Interesting)
Likely in reality by far the majority are getting negligible or minor symptoms
I'm on social media talking to people that have it and they say it is way worse than they expected. Here's what one local person wrote on a nextdoor.com message board:
"It's taking every ounce of energy to write this. I've been extremely sick for a few days now with every symptom of the virus and then some! The nausea even with the best prescription medication allows me to sleep a couple hours and then I waste up in misery again! My fever has gone down and I can still breathe, so haven't been to the ER. Neither my primary doctor or the Dept of Health were interested in seeing me and each one refers me back to the other. Urgent care does not test for COVID19 and unlikely ER does either because they just aren't doing testing. They will only treat symptoms. Which I do have all kinds of meds from a previous illness around the house. No antibiotics though which won't work for virus anyway. I get my flu shot every year but this feels like a bad flu on top of a bad flu! The number of cases reported will never reach even close to true numbers if nobody's being tested!"
She hasn't posted any more messages after that one, despite many people posting replies to her. I imagine many more are in such bad shape that they can't even muster the energy to post anything about what they are going through.
There may be a few people who have minor issues, but that's not any consolation, as that just points to the silent carrier problem. Super spreaders will keep this disease going strong long after many of the severe cases end up dropping dead.
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While not trying to downplay the seriousness of this disease for some of the folks who will catch it, do you really think someone who gets a sniffle or even lies in bed with fatigue for a couple of days (but isn't sick enough to qualify for a test) is going to blog about it? And even if they did, do you really think their message that they *might* have had mild covid-19 and it wasn't a big deal is going to go viral on social media?
Of course we are going to hear about every young person who tests positive fo
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What all these Western politicians seem to be missing is that around 80% of the critically ill cases recover - but they need ventilation to survive.
It appears to be following an 80/20 rule.
80% have no to low symptoms.
Of the 20% who present in A&E 80% get through with non ICU care.
Of the 20% in ICU, 80% survive with ventillation.
If the ICU units can cope then a sub 1% death rate looks rea
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Where did you get those statistics for ICU recovery? The studies done in China are here:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30110-7/fulltext
These indicate that the mortality rate for those requiring ventilation is > 80%, so you've got it backwards (only 20% survive with ventilation).
Not something to be sniffed at, but given they can triage ventilation capacity (85yo with comorbidities who requires ventilation is really not going to make it), adding more ventilators is h
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The big question (Score:2)
The big question (after "were they actually reinfected" at least), is do reinfected people face anything remotely like the same risk they faced the first time?
Completely eliminating this disease is looking unlikely, so the question becomes - is it actually going to continue to be a problem after everyone has caught it the first time? Seems like a big part of the problem right now is that we just don't have any resistance to it. There's lots of other species of coronavirus already circulating through the p
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Not really - as I understand it children don't seem to get hit by the potentially lethal cytokine storm (immune system going berserk). After that - think Zika virus - apparently harmless so long as you're exposed to it as a child.
Of course there's no guarantee that repeat infections will be less dangerous - but it's a pretty common pattern.
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Sorry, I was using "children" from a more traditional context - before "teenagers" were invented to shove adulthood into our twenties. Biologically teenagers are (mostly, there's individual variation) young adults. They've still got some work to do to reach peak maturation, but a few centuries ago they would have been starting families of their own.
So, let me say "young children" instead (the context was new infants encountering ambient COVID for the first time). Especially those first few years when kid
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Re "no one anywhere is doing anything about it the correct way."
Quarantine.
Taiwan and Singapore had the correct idea having understood and got ready due to past health issues.
Is it actually accomplishing anything important, or just changing when people die? There's a big win in keeping the rate of new infection down to what you have the ventilators to handle. But there's no evidence yet that this pandemic will end before most everyone gets it. As far as we know thus far, quarantine merely delays the inevitable, which has value, but you don't want to cause economic damage beyond where those measures are actually saving lives.
For example, locking agricultural workers in would b
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Years of getting ready with civilian use health stockpiles.
Personal protective equipment for all in the police, mil and health care workers.
A mask per citizen count and an app to find masks for sale. Ensuring every citizen using an app found and got a mask.
Re "locking agricultural workers in would be part of any true quarantine, but then you'd have mass starvation a
Re: Now this is super nice! (Score:3)
Words matter, a lot. Use them correctly.
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You do realize masks don't stop you from getting this virus, right?
This is bull***. They are not 100% effective obviously but they definitely help. Looking at studies, however, a correctly used, even a homemade mask, combined with proper hand hygene and mask disposal can reduce your chances of infection from aerosols, probably by between 50% and 80%. A real surgical mask combined with googles will change that to something like 75% to 90%.
If you read the justifications for the advice not to use masks they come down to a) the effect of giving masks to medical workers is
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Masks don't have to be 100% effective to stop the spread. Mask usage reduces the exponent in the exponential growth.
Even if the masks were only 33% effective (that is, fails 2/3 of the time), that could reduce the infectivity (new infections per day per existing infected) from the estimated 2 down to 1.3. Over the course of 30 days, that's the difference between infecting 1 billion people and 5,000 people. If the masks were more than 50% effective, then the infectivity would drop below 1.0 and the disease w
Well that is a bit easier for them (Score:2)
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Don't believe that for a second.
http://www.asianews.it/news-en... [asianews.it]
https://youtu.be/-KFxCqV1fPQ [youtu.be]
https://www.theepochtimes.com/... [theepochtimes.com]
Hmm.
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https://abc14news.com/2020/03/... [abc14news.com]
Better link to the cell phone story.
Re:China tried sending tests to Spain (Score:5, Informative)
Spain rejected all batches because they were only about 30% accurate whereas they should be at least 80%. The Chinese don't really care, as long as the numbers look good.
they bought those in despair through a bargain middle man from a chinese company that specializes in pregnancy tests and is not certified in china. in short, they were scammed.
i live in spain and i would really wish our government and institutions to be just a fraction as serious and thorough about this as those in china. results are speaking for themselves.
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The main kit that was giving only a 30% accurate result was from Bioeasy, which is a CCP approved manufacturer.
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The Chinese don't really care, as long as the numbers look good.
Your ability to speak confidently about what over a billion people care about is impressive. It must be an amazing feeling to be able to know the innermost thoughts and feelings of that many people. How did you acquire this godlike power?
Or perhaps the truth is a bit more nuanced than a racial stereotype about whether people of a certain nationality are mindless automatons who all care only about numbers.
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There's a lot of varieties of virus. Some seem to not reoccur and even getting a relative is good enough to protect for life, smallpox and cowpox for an example. Others stick around.
This is a type of cold,slightly different forms come around and infect people, then it mutates and reinfects again as far as I understand and I'm not an expert.