What Will Happen When Cascadia Subduction Zone Slips 265
Noryungi writes: The New Yorker has published a chilling account of what would happen in the case of a major earthquake (roughly magnitude 9.0) inevitably striking the Cascadia subduction. "Under pressure from Juan de Fuca, the stuck edge of North America is bulging upward and compressing eastward, at the rate of, respectively, three to four millimetres and thirty to forty millimetres a year. It can do so for quite some time, because, as continent stuff goes, it is young, made of rock that is still relatively elastic. (Rocks, like us, get stiffer as they age.) But it cannot do so indefinitely." Most of the west coast of the U.S. and Canada is at risk, from Vancouver all the way down to Los Angeles and beyond. Most of the states and cities within this region are woefully under-prepared for a large earthquake. Scientists peg the odds at 1-in-3 for a quake within the next 50 years, and 1-in-10 for a really powerful one.
Lies (Score:5, Funny)
Geology is a Commie Pinko pseudo-science. God-fearing Kochites know that scientists are evil monsters who must be destroyed!!!! Vote GOP and get a government that knows what to do with scientists.
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You jest (I hope), but I've actually seen some of the crap the young-Earth creationists cite against geological evidence.
It literally boils down, as an example, to "rocks are hard, how could they get all bendy in geological formations". It's the fucking Wookie Defense make by drooling idiots who then think they've won the argument but in fact have reinforced they're drooling idiots.
The sheer drivel of crap intended to be cited by people who don't comprehend science to refute science is utterly mind bogglin
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Re:Lies (Score:5, Insightful)
What you are describing is sophistry, and not science.
Just because people go to extraordinary lengths to justify their religion, doesn't make any of it true.
No. By insisting we engage means we've given in to the position that these silly beliefs have any basis in science, and aren't just some hand waving crap.
Not happening.
If someone truly believes the Earth is 6000 years old, then I'd prefer to get offending them out of the way right off the bat. Because there is no reasoned and intelligent conversation which can ensue.
You're entitled to your own opinions, but you're sure as hell not entitled to your own facts.
Engaging in that level of stupid, because it implies reason, evidence, and logic are in effect.
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This one is the winner so far. :^)
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Well, the last major quake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone was January 26, 1700 at about 9:00 PM, only about 300 years ago so apparently plenty stressed out.
Re:Lies (Score:5, Informative)
https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about [reddit.com]
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Yes, mod parent up.
Actually, if you don't like Slashdot Beta, just go to that "Ask Me Anything" reddit now, don't even open it in a new tab. It was all covered there yesterday with actual experts and stuff.
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Re:Lies (Score:4, Insightful)
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There actually was an AMA on this yesterday or the day before.
Hmm, the article says "posted 1 day ago", is that yesterday or the day before?
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Too early, too boring (Score:2)
I'm sure more (Score:2, Funny)
Stiff? (Score:5, Funny)
Are rocks stiff in the morning, too?
Re:Stiff? (Score:4, Funny)
Everything will be destroyed (Score:2, Funny)
Everything will be destroyed or flooded except for Ozzy Osbourne's mansion. Ozzy is immortal. You can't kill him. He's survived more self-abuse than humanly possible. He'll rise above the ashes and throw a concert for the survivors. :P
You sure you have the right guy? (Score:2)
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Don't forget Keith Richards.
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Everything will be destroyed or flooded except for Ozzy Osbourne's mansion. Ozzy is immortal.
Okay. Ozzy may be immortal, but his mansion? Not so much...
I can tell you what will happen ... (Score:5, Insightful)
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For household prep, top priority is water, which may be the hardest thing. At least one 5 gallon jug per person. We have 10 gallons per person, which is pathetically inadequate. Food for 2 weeks. Camp stove with fuel. Flashlights, radios, batteries. Firewood. Extra prescription meds. Gasoline (I keep a 5 gallon jug and I never let my car get be
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Just call for a carefully planned line of bunker-busters to be dropped. Instant bypass and reservoir.
What could possibly go wrong?
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Wait, what? If you should have a 5 gallon jug per person, how is 10 gallons per person "pathetically inadequate"? Isn't that twice as much as the minimum need?
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Wait, what? If you should have a 5 gallon jug per person, how is 10 gallons per person "pathetically inadequate"? Isn't that twice as much as the minimum need?
I read it to mean that the very minimum to survive a few days is 5 gallons per person. But if the fault goes, and everything goes to shit, even double that amount is not enough because his family will run through it before the nightmare is over. Then they'll be standing in those lines with everyone else, trying to get a koolaid pitcher filled from a FEMA water truck.
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And for the first week, 602's family will have water. After that, they will be standing in line. Just as I said. In addition, I didn't say that the water supply won't be air dropped in.
You grant yourself too much credit if you think your post is LOL worthy.
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...And the biggest earthquake in the US wasn't ...
It is not about "was", it is about "will be".
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What is the likelihood of another quake of that magnitude occurring in Tennessee in the next 100 years? 500 years?
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Really? It seems to me that Seward is in Alaska, not Tennessee.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/10_largest_us.php [usgs.gov]
I'm a bit surprised. I always thought that the New Madrid quakes in the early 1810s were rated 8+.
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Make friends who live in other places.
Goldfinger (Score:4, Funny)
I was about to comment that I'm pretty sure there was a James Bond movie where this was part of the plot.
And then I went and started reading the linked article, and the whole article is talking about a guy called Goldfinger.
Fracking to relieve tectonic pressure (Score:5, Interesting)
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IANASS (I am not a seismic scientist)
The general belief (unfortunately google doesn't provide many non-tin foil links) is that it isn't the fracturing process itself that is inducing siesmicity it is the presurrized injection of the waste slurry that is loosening the stresses and creating the swarm earthquakes.
The risk in your suggestion is that you will reduce risk and stresses in some areas which may increase acute stress in other areas. One unexpected area that becomes the hinge point for a large stre
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Every now and then the subduction zone is subjected to swarms of earthquakes, which I'd imagine are stronger in total magnitude than anything we do ourselves in the course of year: 6/02/2015 — West Coast / Oregon Earthquake swarm occurring at UNDERSEA VOLCANO – Cleft Segment Volcanoes | Dutchsinse [dutchsinse.com] Controlling fault lines is an exercise for Kardashev Level 1 civilizations.
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Shame on anyone who upvoted this for anything other than "funny".
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I live in CA and I manually relieve pressure several times a week. No major earthquakes since I started!
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Why not take out of Oklahoma's or Texas's playbook and do some fracking near the fault line? It will likely cause earthquakes but hopefully they would be minor, and would relieve the pressure a little bit at a time, instead of all at once.
Given the amount of pressure that's built up in the subduction zone since the last big quake 315 years ago chances are all you'd do is set the next big one off. The time to do what you're talking about is right after the big quake to prevent the stresses from building up again. But nobody's ever going to pay for it anyway so it's a moot point.
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Why not take out of Oklahoma's or Texas's playbook and do some fracking near the fault line?
Um, 'cause shale layers != tectonic plates?!
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There is always a catch. Get ready. (Score:4, Interesting)
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As a whitewater rafter who lives in Salem, Oregon I feel fairly well prepared. I have a couple of big water jugs that I keep full. I have a river toilet with enough supplies to last me for several weeks. I have propane stoves and lanterns, water purification equipment and other camping equipment to tide me by. My home was built in 1994 and so has some earthquake resilience built in and is high enough in elevation to avoid flooding if dams break. I probably should stock up some more non-perishable food
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"Two weeks is going to be difficult for poor people"
Nah, just round them up, put them into stadiums , and let God sort them out. Just like during Katrina.[1]
[1] Is there a Godwin's like law re: Kartrina? Should there be one?
I got this one (Score:2)
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Planet Earth Failure Modes (Score:5, Interesting)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
This one has always gotten my attention, I have heard about from multiple sources.
10 deadliest volcanic eruptions --1815 eruption of Mount Tambora-- 92,000 dead -- Year Without a Summer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
It just boggles my mind that there is a real potential for global disaster like this. I believe there is only a 40-90 day world wide food surplus available. I remember in the 1970s there were some discussions on the talking head shows about it. I think it was after Vietnam and the talking heads were scraping the barrel for things to get people excited about. A few economists said it was too big of a capital expenditure on something with a speculative return. But the possibility of an event is not 0... gives me something to ponder when I don't have anything else to worry about.
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What can go wrong with the planet?
Take a look at this "what will go wrong?" list :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Note : Bad news for life on Earth, possibly good news for life on Titan.
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This one has always gotten my attention, I have heard about from multiple sources. 10 deadliest volcanic eruptions --1815 eruption of Mount Tambora-- 92,000 dead -- Year Without a Summer
It wouldn't be so bad now, because of our improved transportation mechanisms. Vermont, for example, would still have trouble with a similar volcano eruption, but Kansas would still grow corn. Also note that a lot of our produce is already imported from Mexico and even Argentina. So our system is more robust, not as regional now.
Of course, a larger volcano eruption could still cause problems. You can get a year supply of food if it especially worries you [costco.com]. It's good to be prepared.
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Good News:, I did some further investigating. The Tambora volcano was a 10,000 year event on the VEI, Volcanic Eruptions Index.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
Eruptive Volume: 100 km3 (20 cu mi)
Type: Ultr
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My impression is this would be a world wide event.
It was mostly a northern hemisphere thing, but yeah.
Kansas and other areas would be similarly bad off, its just they didn't have good information about what was going on there in 1815.
The main thing to note from this graph [wikimedia.org] is that in the worst areas, the temperature dropped 3.5 degrees C. In some parts of Vermont, that could mean freezing in June, but in Kansas it would just delay the growing season a bit.
Also, I wouldn't want to depend too much on 'sharing'.
We already do, and it works really well. In centuries past, the drought in California would have caused mass emigration, if not famine. Now, it's a minor annoyance increasing food prices somewhat, and causing farmers to call their crop
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Spanish Inquisition (Score:2)
When the 'end-of-the-world' disaster comes, it won't be the one you were expecting.
Liquefaction (Score:4, Interesting)
There's also a problem with liquefaction. Most of Victoria and Vancouver (in BC) are built on soft earth which will become mud and will stop supporting the stuff we've built. All those foundations, bridges, streets, they'll all become impassable. There's a liquefaction map I saw at an engineering presentation and the whole thing was red and black. Victoria is literally built on landfill garbage right next to the ocean. One of its landmark buildings, the Empress Hotel, was slowly sinking until it had a major refurb to drive piles down as far as they could reach.
Vancouver is the biggest port for exporting all of Canada's wheat, lumber, ore, etc. If it shuts down, people could be starving for work and food all over the world. It's not all bad though, because EA North would cease to exist. However, greater Vancouver is where most of BC's engineers live and work. We're your experts in fixing up after an earthquake, and most of us would probably be gone.
It's going to be bad when it hits. The upside is that most people here have earthquake kits, emergency supplies, ninja reflexes (we do earthquake drills) and have some idea that it will in fact happen.
we must stop this Juan guy (Score:5, Funny)
Who is this Juan de Fuca? How is he applying so much pressure on the United States? He must be stopped. It's not our fault, it's his.
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He's applying pressure to the Cascadia Subduction, which sounds like some form of HVAC repair. It's hot here in Oregon this summer, so I'm on board.
If I told you once ... (Score:2)
game over man, sell your property, move away! (Score:3)
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Open space, cheap housing, and abundant water. I interviewed for a job in Pittsburgh and the more I investigated the town the more I liked it. Given an offer I would've moved there. Besides the Monroeville mall is nearby.
I hear Cleveland is making a comeback too.
Wouldn't take that bet (Score:3)
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The quake they're talking about will be to the north of California for the most part and won't have as much effect south of Cape Mendocino about 280 miles north of San Fransisco.
Well there will be a boom (Score:2)
in construction jobs, funeral homes business and new jobs for those that have to replace the dead.
Take home real life messages (Score:2)
1. Keep a container of water and a whistle in each room. You can survive a month without food, but only 2-3 days without water.
2. There is not enough airlift to rescue even 1/20th of the injured. Only children in schools will be rescued. If you are in a Deep Bertha Tunnel, you will die there as the power goes out and the fans and pumps stop working.
3. Don't worry about Tsunami risk if you live in the Puget Sound, south of Everett. Unless you live within a block of the ocean. If so, get on the roof.
4. Half o
"A Slight Miscalculation" - Ben Bova (Score:2)
This reminds me of the 1971 Ben Bova short story A Slight Miscalculation" [whatcanimake.noip.me], where a scientist creates a theory to predict earthquakes. He only makes a slight miscalculation...
Who's been watching... (Score:2)
All those 1970's disaster movies again? "The Towering Inferno", "Airport", "Airplane", "Godzilla", "The China Syndrome" and "Earthquake" must have just shown up on Netflix or something...
They are NOT documentaries, they are theatrical productions people!
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That's because the really arrogant assholes are in the midwest.
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Are you sure that a disaster on the coastal infrastructure will have negligible effect on the non-coastal regions of the country? Last I checked our ports are on the coast and our ports are where most of our clothing [1], and non-negligible amount of food [2] come from.
[1] http://abcnews.go.com/Business... [go.com]
[2] http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafi... [usda.gov]
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I can't wait until this happens. CNN will spin off a whole channel for nonstop coverage.
Los Angeles had a minor earthquake some years ago. I think it was like a 4.0 or so, a truck rumble at best. CNN kept running a black-and-white surveillance video of a grocery story where absolutely nothing moved in the background. Nothing falling, nothing breaking, nothing anything. But CNN made it sound like the BIG ONE already happened and California was sliding into the Pacific Ocean.
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I can't wait until this happens. CNN will spin off a whole channel for nonstop coverage.
Los Angeles had a minor earthquake some years ago. I think it was like a 4.0 or so, a truck rumble at best. CNN kept running a black-and-white surveillance video of a grocery story where absolutely nothing moved in the background. Nothing falling, nothing breaking, nothing anything. But CNN made it sound like the BIG ONE already happened and California was sliding into the Pacific Ocean.
I was in the San Francisco Bay Area for the World Series in 1989 during the earthquake that was about 7.0. While the shak
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I'm not worried about quakes, they are of course bad but the effects of them aren't long lasting. I'm more worried about when Yellowstone decides to erupt.
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... quakes,... the effects of them aren't long lasting.
Tell that to the residents of Atlantis.
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How can it be Hillary's fault when the Republicans plan to impeach and remove her from office on Day One?
And when that fails, they'll just say "No" to everything she wants to accomplish without providing any economically-workable and/or morally-acceptable alternatives and blame her for nothing getting done - you know, "the usual".
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I heard Trump was going to install a wall around the fault lines to prevent earthquakes.
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Re:Meh. (Score:4, Interesting)
Astounding as it may seem, but the Democrats are clearly positioning former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (that's right - Mayor) as their VP pick. http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/04/... [cnn.com]
Of course, that's not as astounding as the fact that the Democrats are hell-bent on nominating Hillary, in the first place.
Re:Meh. (Score:4, Insightful)
Actually, neither is astounding, considering how shallow their bench is.
For those among us with a leftward ideology and a twitchy knee, set the ideology aside for a bit and think it through: How many Democrats are 1) nationally recognized, 2) have proven executive ability (e.g. as governor - senators/reps rarely get elected) 3) have enough of a following among their base to push through the primaries?
The Republicans have many of those - in waves, and it shows in the zillion-candidate cage-match they're going through now (though to be honest, only about 8-10 of them have any hope in Hell). Yes, they have some toxic folks among them (e.g. Trump), but they'll flame out long before the primaries are underway.
The DNC? Not so much. There's a couple of outliers (dude from Maryland for example), but they lack any real name recognition, or a political machine to promote their name. Sanders has the populist imagination (much like the Tea Party does with the GOP), and Hillary has the Clinton name, as well as the massive political machine to back her up. Everyone else is either way too old or way the hell too, well, toxic to get the independent voter's nod. I mean, really, who else has a chance there?
Re:Meh. (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, neither is astounding, considering how shallow their bench is
Particularly to find a young face to put in ads. The average Dem in congress is something like 5 years older now than the average Republican. The GOP has clearly been shaken up in the past decade, with lots of new faces (and the shaking hasn't stopped - lots of conservative blogs now spend more time criticizing Republicans than Democrats).
Yes, they have some toxic folks among them (e.g. Trump), but they'll flame out long before the primaries are underway.
Trump is an "issue candidate", not a real contender. He's using the race to get a soapbox to stand on, a long tradition in American, and I think a good one. It's the only way to bring some points of view into the political discussion at all, and it's good to have these arguments about issues during the primaries..
Sanders has the populist imagination
I've come to like Sanders: much as I fine his politics vile, his quite upfront and honest about what he stands for. We need more of that in politics!
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Elizabeth Warren would have a great chance if she ran. Personally, I'd like to see both Trump and Sanders lose their respective primaries and then enter the general election as independents. I'd like to see the hand-wringing that occurs when people across the country question why only the Democrat and Republican are in the TV debates even though there are other popular candidates.
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The American people â" especially on the far right fringe â" won't allow facts to interfere with a popular misconception.
Yeah, the far left fringe has no such problem with reality. Earth is really at risk of becoming like Venus, you can really print all the money you want with no downside, it's not worth injuring an animal or a tree to save a human life, in fact, killing off most humans (starting with 95% of males, of course) would solve most problems. Yup, no disconnect with reality there at all.
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you can really print all the money you want with no downside
Never mind that the annual deficit is at a seven-year low.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-annual-budget-deficit-remains-near-7year-low-in-june-20150713-00726 [nasdaq.com]
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Sure and you spend even more money raising children, buying food, paying income tax, driving to work. So what? $370k over a lperson's ifetime for a school that benefits the society as a whole isn't a horrible thing. Schools are essential, and they have to be paid for. It's part of the society that we live in. Part of the social contract. The whole point of taxes is that they are amortized over time and the entire population, for the benefit of the collective society.
Some people spend more than that o
Net Present Value (Score:3)
The net present value of annual payments of $531.36 over 58 years, at a discount rate of 3%, is $14,958.
Meaning if you set aside $15,000 today in an account earning 3%, you'd have enough money to make those 58 annual payments of $531.36. Per your scenario, the actual cost of the tax increase is about $15,000 per household (consisting of more than one taxpayer on average)
And if Dougherty's property tax millage rate is fully amortizing the bond, then those payments aren't for 58 years, but for the life of
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In general the tax increase for a bond measure like that lasts a limited number of years until the bond is paid off so no one is going to spend 58 years paying that off. Also the average home price in the area is probably a bit less than that unless it's within a half mile of the ocean.
Re:Nobody will notice or care, outside of the regi (Score:5, Insightful)
Like no one noticed or cared when the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami [wikipedia.org] hit or the 2001 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami [wikipedia.org] that destroyed the Fukushima nuclear plant hit. When the next Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake hits it will result in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in damage that will take years to recover from.
And don't worry about anthropogenic global warming, you'll be hearing about it for the rest of your life because it's not going away.
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I don't understand your attitude. Was the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake a hoax? How about the 2011 earthquake off Japan? It is well known that the last major earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone was January 26, 1700 at about 9:00 PM, 300 years ago. To expect it won't happen again is foolishness.
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I don't understand your attitude. ... It is well known that the last major earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone was January 26, 1700 at about 9:00 PM, 300 years ago. To expect it won't happen again is foolishness.
Are you using the word "foolishness" in relation to politicians or scientists - 'cause one is to be expected and one is not.
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I was using it in relation to the AC I replied to any anyone else who thinks a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake is a hoax.
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When the quake lets go all that land will drop several feet giving back all of the rise that's built up since the last quake on January 26, 1700.