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United States Science

What Will Happen When Cascadia Subduction Zone Slips 265

Posted by Soulskill from the when-the-planet-shudders dept.
Noryungi writes: The New Yorker has published a chilling account of what would happen in the case of a major earthquake (roughly magnitude 9.0) inevitably striking the Cascadia subduction. "Under pressure from Juan de Fuca, the stuck edge of North America is bulging upward and compressing eastward, at the rate of, respectively, three to four millimetres and thirty to forty millimetres a year. It can do so for quite some time, because, as continent stuff goes, it is young, made of rock that is still relatively elastic. (Rocks, like us, get stiffer as they age.) But it cannot do so indefinitely." Most of the west coast of the U.S. and Canada is at risk, from Vancouver all the way down to Los Angeles and beyond. Most of the states and cities within this region are woefully under-prepared for a large earthquake. Scientists peg the odds at 1-in-3 for a quake within the next 50 years, and 1-in-10 for a really powerful one.
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What Will Happen When Cascadia Subduction Zone Slips More

What Will Happen When Cascadia Subduction Zone Slips

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  • Lies (Score:5, Funny)

    by MightyMartian ( 840721 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:05PM (#50117211) Journal

    Geology is a Commie Pinko pseudo-science. God-fearing Kochites know that scientists are evil monsters who must be destroyed!!!! Vote GOP and get a government that knows what to do with scientists.

    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by rochrist ( 844809 )
      This is definitely a scam to get those geologists more of that sweet, sweet grant money!! God made the world 5000 years ago, how stressed out can a rock get in such a short time?

      • You jest (I hope), but I've actually seen some of the crap the young-Earth creationists cite against geological evidence.

        It literally boils down, as an example, to "rocks are hard, how could they get all bendy in geological formations". It's the fucking Wookie Defense make by drooling idiots who then think they've won the argument but in fact have reinforced they're drooling idiots.

        The sheer drivel of crap intended to be cited by people who don't comprehend science to refute science is utterly mind bogglin

        • Could you please stop interrupting my comedy show?

      • Well, the last major quake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone was January 26, 1700 at about 9:00 PM, only about 300 years ago so apparently plenty stressed out.

    • Re:Lies (Score:5, Informative)

      by paazin ( 719486 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:29PM (#50117469)
      There actually was an AMA on this yesterday or the day before. The scientists involved stated that much of the article, though grounded in reality, was hyperbole:

      https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about [reddit.com]

      • Re: (Score:3)

        by rwa2 ( 4391 ) *

        Yes, mod parent up.

        Actually, if you don't like Slashdot Beta, just go to that "Ask Me Anything" reddit now, don't even open it in a new tab. It was all covered there yesterday with actual experts and stuff.

      • As a "rock solid" republican whose Fear Syndrome you have ripped away, what will I fear now?

      • Re:Lies (Score:4, Insightful)

        by DutchUncle ( 826473 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @02:20PM (#50118463)
        Hyperbole? If the matching to history is true - that is, if the Indian oral history of a disaster, and the Japanese written history of an unexpected tsunami, indicate that *something* happened in January of 1700 - it's still a valid warning for the Pacific coastline. Even if the situation were only one-tenth as bad, just from back-of-the-envelope rough estimates, that still sounds pretty bad to me.

      • There actually was an AMA on this yesterday or the day before.

        Hmm, the article says "posted 1 day ago", is that yesterday or the day before?

    • The last thing I need in my republican american breakfast, is the truth.
    • It's way too early in the election season to be turning every thread into a dung slinging festival. Especially since (as is obvious from this thread) the parrots don't have anything to say that hasn't been said a million times already.
  • than Juan will be fuca'd

  • Stiff? (Score:5, Funny)

    by ArcadeMan ( 2766669 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:17PM (#50117321)

    Rocks, like us, get stiffer as they age.

    Are rocks stiff in the morning, too?

  • Everything will be destroyed or flooded except for Ozzy Osbourne's mansion. Ozzy is immortal. You can't kill him. He's survived more self-abuse than humanly possible. He'll rise above the ashes and throw a concert for the survivors. :P

  • I can tell you what will happen ... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by QuietLagoon ( 813062 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:27PM (#50117445)
    ... the quake will show how stunningly unprepared that region will be for the ensuing catastrophe.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by 602 ( 652745 )
      This. Oregon DOT did a study a few years ago and concluded that in western Oregon (where essentially all the population is), 70 [seventy] road bridges will go down.

      For household prep, top priority is water, which may be the hardest thing. At least one 5 gallon jug per person. We have 10 gallons per person, which is pathetically inadequate. Food for 2 weeks. Camp stove with fuel. Flashlights, radios, batteries. Firewood. Extra prescription meds. Gasoline (I keep a 5 gallon jug and I never let my car get be

      • Just call for a carefully planned line of bunker-busters to be dropped. Instant bypass and reservoir.

        What could possibly go wrong?

      • At least one 5 gallon jug per person. We have 10 gallons per person, which is pathetically inadequate.

        Wait, what? If you should have a 5 gallon jug per person, how is 10 gallons per person "pathetically inadequate"? Isn't that twice as much as the minimum need?

        • At least one 5 gallon jug per person. We have 10 gallons per person, which is pathetically inadequate.

          Wait, what? If you should have a 5 gallon jug per person, how is 10 gallons per person "pathetically inadequate"? Isn't that twice as much as the minimum need?

          I read it to mean that the very minimum to survive a few days is 5 gallons per person. But if the fault goes, and everything goes to shit, even double that amount is not enough because his family will run through it before the nightmare is over. Then they'll be standing in those lines with everyone else, trying to get a koolaid pitcher filled from a FEMA water truck.

  • Goldfinger (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:28PM (#50117459)

    I was about to comment that I'm pretty sure there was a James Bond movie where this was part of the plot.

    And then I went and started reading the linked article, and the whole article is talking about a guy called Goldfinger.

  • Fracking to relieve tectonic pressure (Score:5, Interesting)

    by AcidPenguin9873 ( 911493 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:29PM (#50117461)
    Why not take out of Oklahoma's or Texas's playbook and do some fracking near the fault line? It will likely cause earthquakes but hopefully they would be minor, and would relieve the pressure a little bit at a time, instead of all at once.

    • IANASS (I am not a seismic scientist)

      The general belief (unfortunately google doesn't provide many non-tin foil links) is that it isn't the fracturing process itself that is inducing siesmicity it is the presurrized injection of the waste slurry that is loosening the stresses and creating the swarm earthquakes.

      The risk in your suggestion is that you will reduce risk and stresses in some areas which may increase acute stress in other areas. One unexpected area that becomes the hinge point for a large stre

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Rujiel ( 1632063 )
      "Hey guys, I know how we can avoid bad earthquakes--let's emulate the actions of a couple states that didn't even have have earthquakes before humans mucked with it!" I seriously hope you're joking. If not, LOL fracking trolls proposing we manually "relieve pressure" in a system we don't completely understand.

      Shame on anyone who upvoted this for anything other than "funny".

      • I live in CA and I manually relieve pressure several times a week. No major earthquakes since I started!

    • Why not take out of Oklahoma's or Texas's playbook and do some fracking near the fault line? It will likely cause earthquakes but hopefully they would be minor, and would relieve the pressure a little bit at a time, instead of all at once.

      Given the amount of pressure that's built up in the subduction zone since the last big quake 315 years ago chances are all you'd do is set the next big one off. The time to do what you're talking about is right after the big quake to prevent the stresses from building up again. But nobody's ever going to pay for it anyway so it's a moot point.

    • Why not take out of Oklahoma's or Texas's playbook and do some fracking near the fault line?

      Um, 'cause shale layers != tectonic plates?!

      • I'm not sure what you're claiming. Are you saying that the earthquakes in OK/TX aren't tectonic-plate earthquakes? Because I'm pretty sure they are.

  • There is always a catch. Get ready. (Score:4, Interesting)

    by wickedsteve ( 729684 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:30PM (#50117483) Homepage
    It figures. When something like a mild climate seems too perfect there is some catch like impending doom. At least it's not tornado alley, right? Stock up on water and nonperishables. If you live through it there will be no plumbing or power for a while.
  • I already know what will happen. We will spend no time or money preparing for it but billions and billions and years and years paying for our lack of planning.
    • I disagree. We won't spend billions paying for it, because we'll have to completely abandon the area like Pompeii or Chernobyl.

  • Planet Earth Failure Modes (Score:5, Interesting)

    by kenj123 ( 658721 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:36PM (#50117531)
    Every so often I like to look over this list just so see what kinds of things can go wrong with the planet
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    This one has always gotten my attention, I have heard about from multiple sources.
    10 deadliest volcanic eruptions --1815 eruption of Mount Tambora-- 92,000 dead -- Year Without a Summer

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

    It just boggles my mind that there is a real potential for global disaster like this. I believe there is only a 40-90 day world wide food surplus available. I remember in the 1970s there were some discussions on the talking head shows about it. I think it was after Vietnam and the talking heads were scraping the barrel for things to get people excited about. A few economists said it was too big of a capital expenditure on something with a speculative return. But the possibility of an event is not 0... gives me something to ponder when I don't have anything else to worry about.

    • What can go wrong with the planet?
      Take a look at this "what will go wrong?" list :
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
      Note : Bad news for life on Earth, possibly good news for life on Titan.

    • This one has always gotten my attention, I have heard about from multiple sources. 10 deadliest volcanic eruptions --1815 eruption of Mount Tambora-- 92,000 dead -- Year Without a Summer

      It wouldn't be so bad now, because of our improved transportation mechanisms. Vermont, for example, would still have trouble with a similar volcano eruption, but Kansas would still grow corn. Also note that a lot of our produce is already imported from Mexico and even Argentina. So our system is more robust, not as regional now.

      Of course, a larger volcano eruption could still cause problems. You can get a year supply of food if it especially worries you [costco.com]. It's good to be prepared.

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by kenj123 ( 658721 )
        My impression is this would be a world wide event. Kansas and other areas would be similarly bad off, its just they didn't have good information about what was going on there in 1815. Also, I wouldn't want to depend too much on 'sharing'. I suspect a lot of countries will go into hoarding mode.
        Good News:, I did some further investigating. The Tambora volcano was a 10,000 year event on the VEI, Volcanic Eruptions Index.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Eruptive Volume: 100 km3 (20 cu mi)
        Type: Ultr

        • My impression is this would be a world wide event.

          It was mostly a northern hemisphere thing, but yeah.

          Kansas and other areas would be similarly bad off, its just they didn't have good information about what was going on there in 1815.

          The main thing to note from this graph [wikimedia.org] is that in the worst areas, the temperature dropped 3.5 degrees C. In some parts of Vermont, that could mean freezing in June, but in Kansas it would just delay the growing season a bit.

          Also, I wouldn't want to depend too much on 'sharing'.

          We already do, and it works really well. In centuries past, the drought in California would have caused mass emigration, if not famine. Now, it's a minor annoyance increasing food prices somewhat, and causing farmers to call their crop

        • I messed up there, you're right, worldwide.
      • That's assuming that the transportation mechanisms work. Bridges come down; roads and rails get damaged. I recall photos after quakes of what used to be a road separated by a dozen feet both horizontally and vertically. That's even assuming that people are willing to ship food rather than hoarding it for their own region.

  • When the 'end-of-the-world' disaster comes, it won't be the one you were expecting.

  • Liquefaction (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Beardo the Bearded ( 321478 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:43PM (#50117589)

    There's also a problem with liquefaction. Most of Victoria and Vancouver (in BC) are built on soft earth which will become mud and will stop supporting the stuff we've built. All those foundations, bridges, streets, they'll all become impassable. There's a liquefaction map I saw at an engineering presentation and the whole thing was red and black. Victoria is literally built on landfill garbage right next to the ocean. One of its landmark buildings, the Empress Hotel, was slowly sinking until it had a major refurb to drive piles down as far as they could reach.

    Vancouver is the biggest port for exporting all of Canada's wheat, lumber, ore, etc. If it shuts down, people could be starving for work and food all over the world. It's not all bad though, because EA North would cease to exist. However, greater Vancouver is where most of BC's engineers live and work. We're your experts in fixing up after an earthquake, and most of us would probably be gone.

    It's going to be bad when it hits. The upside is that most people here have earthquake kits, emergency supplies, ninja reflexes (we do earthquake drills) and have some idea that it will in fact happen.

  • we must stop this Juan guy (Score:5, Funny)

    by drwho ( 4190 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:48PM (#50117639) Homepage Journal

    Who is this Juan de Fuca? How is he applying so much pressure on the United States? He must be stopped. It's not our fault, it's his.

    • He's applying pressure to the Cascadia Subduction, which sounds like some form of HVAC repair. It's hot here in Oregon this summer, so I'm on board.

  • Look guys, if I told you once, its like I told you hundred times. I told you [slashdot.org] what to do when earthquakes are predicted. It worked for Memphis. It will work again. Proven remedy.

  • game over man, sell your property, move away! (Score:3)

    by smoothnorman ( 1670542 ) on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @12:59PM (#50117735)
    Seriously, we're all doomed here on the west-coast, run-away! sell your property, save yourselves! It's all just rain and drought here anyway - nothing to see here, move along. The midwest is where you you should go. All that nice safe open space. Leave us poor clueless left coasters to die. oh... and take all the telephone sanitizers with you.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by plopez ( 54068 )

      Open space, cheap housing, and abundant water. I interviewed for a job in Pittsburgh and the more I investigated the town the more I liked it. Given an offer I would've moved there. Besides the Monroeville mall is nearby.
        I hear Cleveland is making a comeback too.

  • Wouldn't take that bet (Score:3)

    by jandrese ( 485 ) <kensama@vt.edu> on Wednesday July 15, 2015 @01:10PM (#50117809) Homepage Journal
    They are saying there is a 1 in 3 chance that California will experience an earthquake sometime in the next 50 years? Doesn't California suffer Earthquakes on a regular basis? I thought maybe they were talking about major quakes, but the summary immediately goes on to talk about the odds of a major quake.

    • The quake they're talking about will be to the north of California for the most part and won't have as much effect south of Cape Mendocino about 280 miles north of San Fransisco.

  • in construction jobs, funeral homes business and new jobs for those that have to replace the dead.

  • 1. Keep a container of water and a whistle in each room. You can survive a month without food, but only 2-3 days without water.

    2. There is not enough airlift to rescue even 1/20th of the injured. Only children in schools will be rescued. If you are in a Deep Bertha Tunnel, you will die there as the power goes out and the fans and pumps stop working.

    3. Don't worry about Tsunami risk if you live in the Puget Sound, south of Everett. Unless you live within a block of the ocean. If so, get on the roof.

    4. Half o

  • This reminds me of the 1971 Ben Bova short story A Slight Miscalculation" [whatcanimake.noip.me], where a scientist creates a theory to predict earthquakes. He only makes a slight miscalculation...

  • All those 1970's disaster movies again? "The Towering Inferno", "Airport", "Airplane", "Godzilla", "The China Syndrome" and "Earthquake" must have just shown up on Netflix or something...

    They are NOT documentaries, they are theatrical productions people!

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