Web-based Earthquake Forecasts for California

gollum123 writes "People in California can now check earthquake forecasts on the Web just like the weather. The Web site, maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey, is updated hourly and calculates the probability of strong ground shaking at specific locations over a 24-hour period. The program is not meant to predict when the 'Big One' will occur, nor serve as a warning signal for residents to evacuate. Details appear in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature."

What do you do with the information?

[RatPh!nk]

This is much like an asteroid warning system. So lets say there is a warning for a large earthquake. Do you stay home? Leave you house? Skip school/work? Don't get me wrong, I think the tech is great. I like the page. The article says the purpose is to help people know when to be prepared for a quake. But, this is an interesing page on the site. [usgs.gov] It says the primary purpose of the site is for education, though until I read that that was not the impression I was under from the report.

The primary use of this map is educational. Watching the fluctuations in the probabilities will help you understand the nature of earthquake clustering and how the patterns change with time

I think the story needs a new focusm or it is going to be misunderstood by the public

Re:What do you do with the information?

[RatPh!nk]

focusm=focus

Re:What do you do with the information?

[ArmedLemming]

Two words:

Earthquake party!

I live in the SF bay area and although we've had earthquakes I've never paid attention to 'em so I missed 'em. Me and my geocaching-type friends would find this a fun thing to do. Find some area that's high probability and just chill for a day. (We chill anyway, but hey an earthquake would be a nice way to.. umm... shake things up abit)

Re:What do you do with the information?

[Doc Ruby]

Why would you not leave your home? With asteroid warnings, there's no place to go. Earthquake warnings would find me somewhere else. Unless you're talking about "total earthquake", some kind of fictional 100.0 quake that destroys the entire crust.

Whew!

[WalksOnDirt]

The map shows that I have only a 1/25000 chance of experiencing an earthquake with a Modified Mercalli Intensity of six or greater tomorrow. Sounds like a good day for a picnic!

Seriously?

[cephyn]

Why do i get the feeling the map is going to basically look exactly the same every day. little greener around parkfield, SF and LA, mostly blue everywhere else.

then when an earthquake hits, it will go orangey there, because duh, aftershocks.

is it actually going to go red before a quake EVER? is there any proof the system "works" even half as well as weather forecasting?

point being......

[kicken18]

he program is not meant to predict when the 'Big One' will occur, nor serve as a warning signal for residents to evacuate Oh so it has a lot of point then ;)

I predict a dupe.

[Farmer Tim]

"Details appear in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature."

Which means this article will reappear on Slashdot's front page on Friday.

google home page

[harmanjd]

Yeah - but can they put it on their google home page ? http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/05/19/223 8210&tid=217&tid=164&tid=162 [slashdot.org]