DARPA's Autonomous Vehicle Challenge Too Popular? 180
Tim writes "Mobilerobotics.org has an editorial accompanying a copy of a letter to one of the teams entering the DARPA Grand Challenge 1 million dollar autonomous vehicle race, in which DARPA admits to underestimating the number of teams that can actually partipate in the actual race. They figure they've only got room for 20 teams, and more than 100 have applied. The writer of the editorial argues that if more than 20 teams can qualify safely and technically, DARPA should have to chose the 20 cheapest financed teams. What should DARPA do to sort out these problems?" CNET News has more on the high turn-out, while DARPA ponders its next step.
isn't it obvious? (Score:1, Funny)
Re:isn't it obvious? (Score:1)
hmmmmm (Score:1, Funny)
can I have a million dollars? please? aw come on...
Easy... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Easy... (Score:1)
I agree. Why is this such a big deal?
Maybe their "big thinkers" are busy planning more wacky ideas like the terrorism stock market website, leaving little time to solve these other complex logistical problems.
Re:Easy... (Score:5, Informative)
The course.
Just the number of local jurisdictions that this race will pass through makes the logical approach undoable because of the logistical requirements.
I'm involved a bit in ultramarathon cycling and they go through the same problems all the time. State Police, County Sheriff, City Police, everyone with a badge and permit application form gets in on the act and you have to coordinate them all.
One numnut in the middle of the course who'll only let you do it on Tuesday, but only if the moon is full, fucks the whole deal if everyone else will only allow it on Wednsday, but only if the moon is new.
KFG
Re:Easy... (Score:1)
Re:Easy... (Score:1)
This is a public event sponsored by the military. Not a military event. You can't simply have all these civs just wandering around White Sands chasing their four ton toy cars across the missle range.
That's only fun until someone loses their structural integrity.
KFG
Re:Easy... (Score:2)
>
> That's only fun until someone loses their structural integrity.
Re:Easy... (Score:1)
That's the part mama never understood when she gave us that "loses an eye" lecture.
KFG
Re:Easy... (Score:2)
Re:Easy... (Score:2)
Re:Easy... (Score:1)
All in all this is not bad for DARPA, but it is unfair to the teams that go first. Even if they do pic
Re:Easy... (Score:2)
To even the playing field towards economics, award a small amount of bonus points for certain budget limits.
Re:Easy... (Score:2)
Really, they must just mean that they can't be buggered to organise 100 teams.
J.
Take the D&D route... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Take the D&D route... (Score:2)
Just roll a D-100 and see who wins.
I'm picturing adding AI controls to my D-100 pickup, which I already refer to as Franken-Truck (since it's built out of parts from at least three other trucks and one car); and, letting it rip!
The answer is obvious (Score:5, Funny)
They need to have a pre-contest, something akin to Robot Wars. I mean, it is the Defense Department after all.
Pony up, DARPA (Score:2, Insightful)
Oh for heaven's sake, they're the Defense department, fercryinoutloud. Just run more races. They should make it a yearlong tournament. You know they could sell it to cable.
Re:Pony up, DARPA (Score:2)
Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!
The D a r p a SuperBowl of Autonomous Vehicle Racing... Hot Smart Vehicles Hot Bikini Clad Woman Cold Beer
Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!
Re:Pony up, DARPA (Score:1)
A program proposal was written up to get funding approval, and they projected a maximum of 20 groups showing interest. Based on that forecast, they set up
If it's so popular, then run it in heats! (Score:5, Insightful)
The simpliest answer is usually the best... (Score:1, Redundant)
Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Re:ALSO FROM TEAM VE (Score:1)
You look like you've gone to a load of trouble with your plan.
Best of luck with the appeal and I will be watching for your team in the news.
Re:From Team Visionary Endeavor (Score:2)
They already sponsor stuff like Future Truck etc.
Think about it. Toyota unveiled the self parking system in the new hybrid Prius. I bet it must have cost more than a million to develop it.
If car makers take over the sponsorship, they could get a butt load of expertise for peanuts.
But Im guessing is that many big companies ( Carnegie Mellon's team has a budget of 20 million) are helping out because
Re:From Team Visionary Endeavor (Score:2)
Most of these companies already have their own research labs and fund people to work in this area in actual colleges with actual labs.
Think about it. They know how much this stuff costs.
A million is peanuts compared to what it costs for development. Its worth much more to be the first to market with the new technologies. Most of these companies are doing it because they don't really control how the research is done, or what is done with it. The colleges do, and because it gets them nice publ
Re:From Team Visionary Endeavor (Score:1)
Get the politicians involved - that's what they are for, in the land of pork-barrel politics.
Re: (Score:2)
what about mountain biking trails? (Score:2)
I come from an area that's something of a mountain bike mecca lately, and I'm sure there are lots of small communities like mine with extensive and interesting trail networks that could be great tests for autonomous vehicles. And the communities would love it...
Or are the UAVs not ready for rugged terrain yet?
Re:From Team Visionary Endeavor (Score:2)
Call you congrescritters (Score:2)
So what's the Gripe? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:So what's the Gripe? (Score:1)
I agree with running multiple heats or something similar. That's the only fair way I can see for the entrants.
Just taking 20-40 of the entrants sucks. You follow the rules, come up with a design that costs a million dollars, then they say "sorry, you're not the cheapest - bye bye"...
It is the US Dept of Defence right? I'm sure they can scrape together a few thousand dollars from this years $500 billion somewhere...
Pick the successful ones, not the cheap ones (Score:4, Insightful)
That's the wrong way to do it, anyway. You pick the winner(s) out of the best ones to do it successfully for the lowest cost, not the ones that only have a low up-front cost. If they don't work, you've binned 80% of your other candidates.
Also, you look for the lowest cost of building the finished unit, not the development costs put up front. Some teams may have had massive amounts of money put into them to guarantee a win, that doesn't imply the finished unit will be expensive to make.
Re:Pick the successful ones, not the cheap ones (Score:2)
If you're handing out contracts, you can choose the lower-priced of two equally-good products.
If the lower-priced isn't truly the lower-cost, you don't care, because it's a contract and MegaCorp has promised to deliver it for $X. If it costs them more than it costs MacroCorp to make the competing product that costs more, you can just assume they have their reasons - maybe they have lower profit margins, or have other products that also be
Re:So what's the Gripe? (Score:3, Insightful)
The race will be amongst the 20 percent of vehicles that seem most like the ones around today. Lame.
They should lobby some major corps for some small grants to have a preliminary event, and put the winner into the 'big race'
Make the starting points scattered (Score:3, Interesting)
Alternately, if the weather conditions in this part of the world are stable enough it should be possible to run the course over several weeks. The only problems that occur to me would be that evidence of previous vehicles would mean that the latter teams would have tracks as markers as to where others went. If the area is reasonably windy, or has lots of rain, these could be washed away but that is sheer speculation. Just my $0.02 worth
CF= (Score:2)
It is a "Charlie Foxtrot", for us contractors with sensative ears.
Re:CF= (Score:1)
If so, it will then also be a clear-cut BOHICA situation...
BOHICA: Bend Over, Here It Comes Again
(another military 'from the trenches' acronym)
OldFart 8-)
Re:CF= (Score:2)
Why limit? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Why limit? (Score:2)
Re:Why limit? (Score:2)
Re:Why limit? (Score:2)
so follow along with a truck and a kill switch
In a race with 20 killer ai robot cars? Are you mad?!
Re:Why limit? (Score:2)
"Hey, is that a rail gun I see mounted on your truck?"
Darpa should choose... (Score:1)
DARPA should (Score:1, Funny)
SILLY ASSES.
Re:Darpa should choose... (Score:1)
Hasn't science traditionally meant taking existing work and making some small improvement or addition, then repeating the process for ever and ever?
Quantum leaps are much better though :). Maybe they should just run a competition for autonomous flying cars with sultry computers asking where you want to go and having a nice conversation about the politics with you?
Occam's Razor (Score:5, Funny)
And then give the contract to Haliburton.
Re:Occam's Razor (Score:2)
How about (Score:5, Interesting)
low price != 'good tech' (Score:5, Interesting)
I like the "tournament" ideas discussed so far, as DARPA should really test ALL the submissions. Find the best technology now, and further development WILL bring the cost down in the long run. Simply saying 'Oh, but this one is too expensive' has too much potential to eliminate superior technology.
Re:low price != 'good tech' (Score:2)
Contest strategy (Score:5, Funny)
But, I am gifted with the ability to see the forest for the trees. The people who are running the contest are with the Defense Department. Among other things, that department is responsible for prosecuting wars. And wars are just formal and legal ways to kill lots of people.
So, my strategy, in line with seeing the forest for the trees, would be to read between the lines. The rules talk about navigating a course, but why do they want to do that? TO KILL PEOPLE. The larger goal here is not to just navigate a course, but to win a war by killing lots of people.
My hypothetical entry would be a very large limousine, with a fully stocked bar, lots of hookers, a disco ball, and a bomb in the trunk. Everyone would take a look at my entry, and say "I gotta take a ride in that thing." The limousine would be very large, and could hold hundreds of people. When they are all inside, the autonomous function would take over. The contest does specify "autonomous" so the car would know what to do automatically. It would blow up, killing a lot of people, and hopefully anyone close by too.
With that kind of performance, I am quite sure that DARPA would be very impressed with my entry, and I would win.
Re:Contest strategy (Score:1)
Re:Contest strategy (Score:3, Insightful)
This doesn't even go into the fact that an invading force would shoot itself in the foot if it destroyed everything, considering its going to be occupying the land for a while.
Also doesn't go into the "PR" costs back in America. The bottom line is they're only in the business of "prot
Re:Contest strategy (Score:2)
More like 1:50+ ...
Cheapest solution? (Score:2, Interesting)
The best is if they try to take in as many contestants as possible.
If they want to use an economical limit to reduce the number of contestants they should decide a maxcost or something such.
heat races (Score:5, Insightful)
Just what we need (Score:5, Funny)
self-serving article (Score:5, Insightful)
DARPA is looking for people to push the envelope on autonomous vehicle research. However, this is also a very political project that involves a lot of cross-department cooperation. They don't want to have to talk to the press about how an out-of-control "giant robot" crashed into the home of the last colony of purple spotted pigmy desert lizards and exploded. That means, effectively, that talented amateurs with a go-cart and a spare PC are not welcome. They want people who either have a track record or who seem to really be on top of things. As a result, I fully expect them to reject most of the last-minute entrants, small teams, or teams with known problems (like "it don't work yet").
Cost of increasing contest potential rewards (Score:4, Insightful)
Seems to me like the costs involved in simply extending the contest by a day or two(or 5) to run longer, as well as conduct any trail repairs and such, are minimal compared to the potential rewards from much more competition.
However, I suspect that the "big boy" defense contractors will get first pickings even if they have shit for entries, and if the armed services -really- want to stack the deck, they'll pick the independent teams they think have the least chance to fill out the other 15 or so slots.
If you don't believe me, just look at some of the wonderful moves the armed services have made in the past when things were supposed to be open to fair bidding etc. Or, look at the current bids for Iraq stuff- one does wonder what sort of commission Cheney gets these days- oh wait, that would be his Haliburton retirement account...
Re:Cost of increasing contest potential rewards (Score:1)
not "LOWEST"! (Score:4, Funny)
Whoa there, this is government. The 20 most expensive to make should be in the final competition.
Sunday, Sunday, Sundaaaayy!!! (Score:2, Funny)
Autonomous Vehicle Dealership (Score:4, Funny)
The fix is in (Score:5, Funny)
"
Dear Mr. Insignificant
Thank you for participating, but since this dog and pony show was really only designed to allow the top 20 big contractors (like Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed, Rockwell, Northrop, GE, GM, Ford, et al) get a chance at a lucrative contract, we must now admit that you don't have a chance in hell. As a matter of fact, we are so nervous that one of the other 80 participants may actually produce a better, more innovative vehicle, we are going to disqualify you all before you even get a chance. Sure, in the spirit of looking fair, we will come visit your site and see your vehicle. Don't get your hopes up. Do you really think we are going to give the vehicle you and your unemployed ex-aerospace friends built in a garage the same chance we are going to give the Boeing entry we get to see at a 40,000 sq ft plant with a clean room and a reception area filled with gnosh for us to eat? Hell, Lockheed is even providing champagne and a mariachi band! Thank you for playing, now go home and let the big boys play with their billion dollar contracts.
Sincerely,
DARPA (i.e. The Federal Appropriations Enabler)"
Who needs innovation when you can get free food and a goodie bag?
Re:The fix is in (Score:4, Informative)
Even the CMU team is CMU's second string. The Robotics Institute decided to pass on the Grand Challenge. The group entering is from the Field Robotics Center, which is Red Whittaker's old teleoperator-building operation. They're not the autonomous robot people from CMU. They didn't raise the $5 million they said they were going to raise, either. Basically, the CMU people are hanging an Applanix GPS/INS system and a Reigl laser rangefinder on an old HUMMV, which is reasonable enough. Their main advantage is a big body count - they claim to have over 40 undergrads working on the thing.
The Caltech entry is really a bunch of undergrads with a '95 Chevy Blazer and an adviser from JPL. They're very dependent on cameras, probably too dependent given the state of the art in that area.
Nobody that I know of is doing this with all full-time paid staff.
Fight Fight Fight, Bite Bite Bite (Score:2)
Make all 100 fight to the death. The top twenty survivors get to run the race. After all, we only want to send the best 20 -- let's find out which are really fit to survive in a hostile environment.
"To the victor go the spoils" -- a basic premise of evolutionary development.
And don't just select the cheapest twenty -- consider that survivability might outweigh cost, on a Mars mission.
Actually, the really interesting aspect will be analyzing the failure of those that make the top twenty but don'
Aaaww come-on (Score:1)
Nothing beats a Hummer . . (Score:2)
Well hell, I could do that, and for alot less then $1 mill too! 20lb weight on the gas pedal, point it towards the f
There really aren't that many teams with a clue (Score:3, Informative)
The next big gripe is about the "DARPA site visit". DARPA plans to send some people out to visit each team in December and check on their progress. A few people are complaining loudly about this, but anybody with something to show shouldn't have a problem with it. It's basically a vaporware filter.
Finally, DARPA has decided to use the preliminary testing at the California Motor Speedway in Fontana to cut the number of entries down to 20. I will be surprised if twenty teams field something that crosses the starting line in Fontana, let alone finishes the trial course.
I don't see a problem here.
John Nagle
Team Overbot [overbot.com]
(Incidentally, while we have most of the people we need, we could use an additional electronics tech and a QNX sysadmin. "No pay, some risk, a fraction of the prize.")
Re:There really aren't that many teams with a clue (Score:2)
Not an issue (Score:4, Informative)
Although there are 100+ teams registered (see the team list here [darpa.mil]), that doesn't mean much. There was no entry fee to apply! At this point all the teams have to have done is supply a technical paper with their ideas for how their robot could work. There's a huge difference between doing that and actually producing a multi hundred thousand dollar vehicle.
Undoubtedly, only a small fraction of these teams will have the budgets and resources to show up with a vehicle on March 13. I doubt there will be more than 10. And none of them will meet the standards necessary to win the contest. But most of them will be back next year, with a few new entrants, and after enough years of experience they will hopefully succeed.
But for now, this is all a mountain in a molehill. People are making a tempest out of a teapot. DARPA simply failed to explicitly include a phase to weed out those contestants who won't have a vehicle. Now they are fixing that. I doubt very much that the numbers will be an issue at all.
Re:Not an issue (Score:2)
Use 3-5 processors hooked into GPS, 360 degrees of camera coverage, maybe some IR camera's for night and a maybe a low powered sonar or laser system for distance detection. Map software onboard goes without saying.
Ea
Simple Solution (Score:2)
Well, considering what the D in DARPA stands for, the solution is obvious: Ask Congress for more money, claiming that the race is vital for national security. Duh!
Why not have prelims? (Score:2)
The solution is easy (Score:2)
People padding their resume's? (Score:1)
Qualifying Race (Score:2)
I doubt all 100 are totally up to the required quality. Why not just have a much shorter but fairly difficult qualifying race. That would remove the 'almost ready' contenders from those with a real chance.
F1 had a similar problem (Score:4, Interesting)
The system was simple. In pre-qualifying, competitors had to exceed some pre-set minimum standard. If you didn't make it, you didn't get into the regular qualifying session. The reason for calling it pre-qualifying is that, for the bulk of the season, it only applied to the slowest N driver/team pairs.
Qualifying then required all surviving competitors to get within N seconds of the fastest car. Anyone slower was disqualified.
Similar standards are used in the Olympics, where there are minimum standards set to even be able to get there, and (as there are more countries than track space) you then have to meet additional standards to actually start.
It seems that this would be the way for DARPA to go. Now, space and marshalling will place certain limits on how they can do this. You can't do your routine pre-qualifying, if there's nobody you can have marshalling the event, and nowhere to hold it.
Static testing would therefore seem a viable alternative. Put up a prefab shop, where you can statically test the autonomous vehicles. If certain standards aren't met, the vehicle is DNQed. Yeah, it's rough, as this wasn't the original spec, but they've gotta do something and this would work better than drawing lots.
Now, you're still likely to have more than 20 meet the minimum, unless the minimum is so high that you risk eliminating too many. The answer here would seem to be to have some kind of short sprint area. That shouldn't be too bad, now the numbers are down. First 20 across the line are the entrants.
Again, this is rough, but DARPA are badly outnumbered and they don't have a choice but to cut the numbers somehow. The only fair way is to have "mini contests" that are sufficiently limited in space/time that they can manage it with the resources they have.
And, again, competitors may bitch about being DNQed with the above, because it wasn't the original contest, but they'd bitch a hell of a lot more (and with far greater cause) if it came down to drawing straws.
My question... (Score:2)
Re:Media tries to steal election for Gore in 2000! (Score:1)
Uh, O.K., thanks.
Extremely OFF TOPIC though.
Re:Media tries to steal election for Gore in 2000! (Score:1)
if you're going to AC post, posting the EXACT SAME MESSAGE in two different places (one of which is not AC) is not a good idea. Better to refer them to your previous post (#7379858).
Re:A Real Change (Score:2)
Forget the limited number of people who are unable to use a car for day-to-day use. Although they still count in the numbering scheme, they are only a small segment of the vehicle's potential markets.
You love to drive. If you didn't, LA would've made mass transit commuting manditory long ago. The infrasructure could be built without a serious budgetary crunch, you'd drop your external oil dependencies, and you'd have a lot les
Re:A Real Change (Score:3, Interesting)
Instead of driving the car to work and leaving it in a parking lot all day, the car could spend the day running errands for other people. Not everyone would need to buy a car and those who do could chose to lease them into this system.
Sure, Americans like the freedom of driving down the road wherever and whenever they want. We also don't like being pressed in with a bunch of other people. Given a choice between an hour alone
Re:A Real Change (Score:1)
But I also hate waiting for a bus, only to have it finally arrive to force me into the back with a bunch of odd-smelling people who insist on cursing in front of my kids. Then I get to wait twice as long to get there.
And getting someplace late at night? Right.
I bike when it's possible, but drive because that's really the best way to go.
Re:A Real Change (Score:2)
No, I hate to drive. I also hate feeling closed in at home. If I can't safely shoot a gun on my property I don't have enough room, if I can't leave my boat in the driveway, engine half apart (while rebuilding it...), and so on: I don't have the freedom to live the life I want to live.
I'd love use public transit to get to work. It has to get me there though. In far too many cases just going 3 miles (as the crow flys) can take over an hour! Public transportation in most US cities assumes you are going do
Re:A Real Change (Score:2)
Much of europe was the same way. When in Prague, everyone rides a tram, or a bus, or whatever. You can see why with the difficult-to-navigate streets, but whatever the reason for usimg mass transit, they are better off for it IMHO.
Re:A Real Change (Score:2)
many busy highways have the High Occupancy Vehicle lane meant specifically for vehicles with multiple occupants.
with autonomous vehicles you can drive closer together at a higher rate of speed. there could easily be similar bonuses for being in one of these bots.
Re:A Real Change (Score:2)
I am not saying it isn't possible to reach this point, but don't expect it soon after the technology's invention.
Re:A Real Change (Score:4, Interesting)
On top of that, your car can still fail, the electronic fuel injection could go screwy and you'd lose power, causing an accident. Heck, in event of a problem, the car could broadcast an alert via some redundant system that goes "HEY! I broke, and I'm right here! don't hit me!" If you built all the cars to be interoperable, you could do all sorts of nifty things, scheduling and traffic management to alleive congestion.
All I'm really trying to say, is that I'd trust windows more than some of the drivers on the road, and these would likely be very stable embedded systems, like the kind that run assembly lines, or your car, every day without a hitch.
Re:A Real Change (Score:2)
The problem with the system is it requires a LOT of faith in the other cars on the road. That said, I hope we get there sometime...
Re:A Real Change (Score:2)
in any case, i wouldn't expect this system to be in place for anything except highways for a LONG time
Re:A Real Change (Score:1, Insightful)
The truck driver union wont let that happen.
In Japan and other parts of the world robots do construction work, ie. putting in windows on a sky scraper. They do it cheaper, safer, better, and more efficient than humans, but the glazier union doesnt allow that to happen in America. There are some private non-union companies that do use these technologies, but they tend to get pickted and sabotaged by the unions.
Re:A Real Change (Score:4, Funny)
Instead there will be loads of wrecks from overworked programmers messing up a few lines of critical code. At that point terrorists will have no need to hijack an airplane, they'll just release virus "InsaneTruck.vbs", or "WackAPedestrian.asx" and every vehicle on the road becomes a remote weapon of terror.
Re:I don't get the challenge (Score:1)
I don't think it has to do with the number of entries, but rather the course. Maybe only 20 vehicles can compete on the course at the same time, and all vehicles have to compete simultaneously.
Re:Underestimating / Overestimating ? (Score:2)
Either DARPA UNDERestimated the actual number of teams that actually **applied to compete**, or they OVERestimated the actual number of teams that actually **can actually participate**.
Actually.