Occam's Razor says it's probably not a lab leak. Why one would start with that assumption makes no sense, other than fitting their preconceived boogeyman notions. "But the gov't is secretive and evasive" doesn't say much because most despots are secretive and evasive out of habit.
Let's say you hear reports of a Florida Panther wandering around the streets of the Bronx. Is your first thought that the panther came on it's own all the way from Florida? Probably not. You might then ask, what is the largest concentration of Florida Panthers in the Bronx? Maybe there is a facility in the Bronx that is known to have a population of panthers, maybe even a panther breeding program? The zoo! Maybe it came from the Bronx zoo?
The Wuhan lab was basically a coronavirus zoo, with the first outbreak a mere 10 miles away. So you know there are exotic coronaviruses in the Wuhan lab, as opposed to the possibility that there was an exotic coronavirus at a wet market. Which one of those gets cut away by Occam's razor?
Let's say you hear reports of a Florida Panther wandering around the streets of the Bronx. Is your first thought that the panther came on it's own all the way from Florida? Probably not. You might then ask, what is the largest concentration of Florida Panthers in the Bronx? Maybe there is a facility in the Bronx that is known to have a population of panthers, maybe even a panther breeding program? The zoo! Maybe it came from the Bronx zoo?
The Wuhan lab was basically a coronavirus zoo, with the first outbreak a mere 10 miles away. So you know there are exotic coronaviruses in the Wuhan lab, as opposed to the possibility that there was an exotic coronavirus at a wet market. Which one of those gets cut away by Occam's razor?
The Zoo! It had to have walked all the way north because all the panthers are present in the zoo. No you can not count the number we have. They don't like being counted.
That is a really stupid analogy because the background level of "panthers" is not zero. Replace "panther" with "housecat" and claim that any random cat you see on a residential street must have escaped from the cat rescue place a mile away if you want to get an idea how bad your analogy is.
Panther is to house cat as Covid-19 is to average coronavirus. Before Covid-19 the background level of highly contagious lethal coronaviruses was near 0. Did it come from a bat, then transmitted to a pangolin in the market, then to a human? Certainly possible. That needs to be investigated. Did it come from various animals, brought together in a lab, and then escape from the lab? Also possible. Also worthy of investigation. I don't know where it came from, but I don't discount a theory because it might have
Let me give you a hint, as you really appear to be as dense as I was afraid of. There are approximately ZERO panthers in the houses in a neighborhood, so assuming a panther you see is from the zoo makes sense. There are approximately one house cat per house however, so if you see a house cat, assuming it is from the zoo makes a lot less sense. Not impossible but a rather foolish assumption.Get it? Your analogy is stupid. You can probably come up with a better one.
This is an analogy, Mr. Big Brain, it does break down at some point. Like when people use a car analogy for software design, it's not like your code is going to drive you to the grocery store (unless you are actually writing code for a car, in that case it can.)
The Wuhan wet market was basically a coronavirus zoo, with the first outbreak a mere 10 miles away.
Fixed that for you.
We know that viruses jump species. We know that animals have coronaviruses. We know that the wet market has both wild animals and people who capture wild animals, all in unsanitary conditions.
I don't know where the virus came from, though it seems to me that "from animals" seems far more likely than "from a lab". I believe this because that's what every expert who as looked into this has said, But some people really really want it to be from a Chinese lab and refuse any other possibil
What exactly is stopping you seeing the most obvious gaping hole in your logic? Youâ(TM)re pushing a clear false dichotomy. Itâ(TM)s perfectly feasible that itâ(TM)s a zoonotic virus that was being studied in a lab.
Of course it's possible. I never said it wasn't. And I never said covid didn't come from a lab. Maybe it did. I said "I don't know where the virus came from"; which word are you having trouble with?
But the preponderance of evidence says "from nature". The preponderance of experts say "from nature". You seem to deny the possibility that it came from nature. Why?
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Since we've never seen a serious disease spread from a laboratory, that claim is extraor
Some people want it to be from a Chinese lab. I don't. I don't want any humans to be responsible for all this death. I also don't want the lab theory to be ignored because of politics, not science. It does seem that the WHO is ignoring the possibility it came from a lab for political reasons, even considering the ridiculous frozen food theory more likely than the lab. It is crucial, and to all our best interests, to find the real origin of Covid-19,
I disagree that discovering the source is crucial. In fact, if it comes from animals, it is probably impossible to discover the source. The carrier animals are likely dead (since they were likely food animals), and the initial infected people never got tested at the time (since, for younger folks, it is usually either asymptomatic or looks like an annoying cold). Either way, though, the source is independent of the treatment. And we need to be careful of both animals and labs in the future, so I don't s
Gosh that takes me back... or is it forward? That's the trouble with
time travel, you never can tell."
-- Doctor Who, "Androids of Tara"
Like this report is going to change anyone's mind? (Score:3)
Re: (Score:2)
Occam's Razor says it's probably not a lab leak. Why one would start with that assumption makes no sense, other than fitting their preconceived boogeyman notions. "But the gov't is secretive and evasive" doesn't say much because most despots are secretive and evasive out of habit.
Re:Like this report is going to change anyone's mi (Score:3, Interesting)
I like the Bronx panther analogy.
Let's say you hear reports of a Florida Panther wandering around the streets of the Bronx. Is your first thought that the panther came on it's own all the way from Florida? Probably not. You might then ask, what is the largest concentration of Florida Panthers in the Bronx? Maybe there is a facility in the Bronx that is known to have a population of panthers, maybe even a panther breeding program? The zoo! Maybe it came from the Bronx zoo?
The Wuhan lab was basically a coronavirus zoo, with the first outbreak a mere 10 miles away. So you know there are exotic coronaviruses in the Wuhan lab, as opposed to the possibility that there was an exotic coronavirus at a wet market. Which one of those gets cut away by Occam's razor?
Re: (Score:1)
I like the Bronx panther analogy.
Let's say you hear reports of a Florida Panther wandering around the streets of the Bronx. Is your first thought that the panther came on it's own all the way from Florida? Probably not. You might then ask, what is the largest concentration of Florida Panthers in the Bronx? Maybe there is a facility in the Bronx that is known to have a population of panthers, maybe even a panther breeding program? The zoo! Maybe it came from the Bronx zoo?
The Wuhan lab was basically a coronavirus zoo, with the first outbreak a mere 10 miles away. So you know there are exotic coronaviruses in the Wuhan lab, as opposed to the possibility that there was an exotic coronavirus at a wet market. Which one of those gets cut away by Occam's razor?
The Zoo! It had to have walked all the way north because all the panthers are present in the zoo. No you can not count the number we have. They don't like being counted.
Re: (Score:2)
So let me ask you this. When the Florida Panthers were found in... let's say Maine, 16 years earlier, was that also the Bronx zoo?
Re: (Score:2)
That is a really stupid analogy because the background level of "panthers" is not zero. Replace "panther" with "housecat" and claim that any random cat you see on a residential street must have escaped from the cat rescue place a mile away if you want to get an idea how bad your analogy is.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Let me give you a hint, as you really appear to be as dense as I was afraid of. There are approximately ZERO panthers in the houses in a neighborhood, so assuming a panther you see is from the zoo makes sense. There are approximately one house cat per house however, so if you see a house cat, assuming it is from the zoo makes a lot less sense. Not impossible but a rather foolish assumption.Get it? Your analogy is stupid. You can probably come up with a better one.
Re: (Score:2)
I must be dense because your brilliance escapes me. I will break down my analogy so that the flaws of my dense thinking are obvious.
The panther is an exotic, deadly coronavirus (not necessarily Covid-19).
In 2019 we know there are panthers (exotic, deadly coronaviruses) in the Bronx zoo.
There may be panthers in private ownership by rich eccentrics in the Bronx(wet markets), but this is not certain.
Suddenly, in 2020, multiple sighting of panthers in the streets of the Bronx are reported.
Where did the panthe
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
The Wuhan wet market was basically a coronavirus zoo, with the first outbreak a mere 10 miles away.
Fixed that for you.
We know that viruses jump species. We know that animals have coronaviruses. We know that the wet market has both wild animals and people who capture wild animals, all in unsanitary conditions.
I don't know where the virus came from, though it seems to me that "from animals" seems far more likely than "from a lab". I believe this because that's what every expert who as looked into this has said, But some people really really want it to be from a Chinese lab and refuse any other possibil
Re: Like this report is going to change anyone's m (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Of course it's possible. I never said it wasn't. And I never said covid didn't come from a lab. Maybe it did. I said "I don't know where the virus came from"; which word are you having trouble with?
But the preponderance of evidence says "from nature". The preponderance of experts say "from nature". You seem to deny the possibility that it came from nature. Why?
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Since we've never seen a serious disease spread from a laboratory, that claim is extraor
Re: Like this report is going to change anyone's (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
I disagree that discovering the source is crucial. In fact, if it comes from animals, it is probably impossible to discover the source. The carrier animals are likely dead (since they were likely food animals), and the initial infected people never got tested at the time (since, for younger folks, it is usually either asymptomatic or looks like an annoying cold). Either way, though, the source is independent of the treatment. And we need to be careful of both animals and labs in the future, so I don't s