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Submission + - Droughts linked to global warming (

Layzej writes: Two new papers indicate that we are likely already seeing some of the predicted impacts of global warming, The first used Monte Carlo simulations to analyze how many new record events you expect to see in a time series with a trend. They applied the technique to the unprecedented Russian heat wave of July 2010, which killed 700 people and contributed to soaring wheat prices. According to the analysis, there’s an 80 percent chance that climate change was responsible. The authors describe the methods and how they improved on previous studies here. The second studied Wintertime droughts in the Mediterranean region. They found that 'the magnitude and frequency of the drying that has occurred is too great to be explained by natural variability alone. This is not encouraging news for a region that already experiences water stress, because it implies natural variability alone is unlikely to return the region’s climate to normal.'
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Droughts linked to global warming

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Numeric stability is probably not all that important when you're guessing.