Elon Musk To Write a Book About Earth Sustainability and Mars Colonization 131
MarkWhittington writes Elon Musk has taken on quite a number of projects with a goal of changing the world while making lots of money doing so. He proposes to revolutionize space travel through his commercial launch company, SpaceX. His more earthly endeavors have included electric cars, home solar power, a transportation system called the Hyperloop, a space based Internet and, most recently, a battery that can power a house. Now, according to a story in Business Insider, Musk will open his mind on his views on "sustainability" was well as Mars colonization in book form.
Re: Propheteering (Score:5, Informative)
A guy who got rich off of one of the more hated financial service companies must automatically be a futurist genius.
Paypal was just one of his many accomplishments. There is also Tesla, SpaceX, and SolarCity. I think he is at least as qualified as anyone else to make predictions. Especially about the future.
The shallowness of the public just gets more shocking all the time.
So who should the public be listening to? Visionaries like Ted Cruz and Elizabeth Warren?
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You mean his many accomplishments that benefit the other rich people like himself?
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You mean his many accomplishments that benefit the other rich people like himself?
"Trickle-down" may not work for economics, but it certainly works for technology. Here is a list of things that were once considered playthings for the rich: cars, TVs, home computers, cell phones, glass windows, indoor plumbing, ....
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CRTs were research and military devices. TV was precisely designed as a mass market medium for the 20th century.
Home computers were popularised in the '70s by hobbyists.
Cell 'phones were the commercialisation of the '80s CB craze, itself a popularisation of ~70 years of ham radio.
Glass windows were sorta playthings for the rich, in that their optical properties were so poor that few people gave a shit about them for a good millennium.
Indoor plumbing was common in various civilisations 2000+ year old for the
Re: Propheteering (Score:2)
Miami vice is 80s and car phones were a thing... Testa rossa was introduced mid 80s
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Made a car that isn't even on the list of Green cars.
I wasn't aware that I was supposed to care that there's an official list of "Green cars". And the $35k car that he's making is definitely not for rich people.
Massive environmental destruction of the mountain of argentina and Peru with lithium poisoning from the Lithium mines.
That's what regulation is for, right? And all those people getting paid to mine lithium aren't rich.
The vacuum train that he came up with accept he didn't and isn't putting one penny of his on money into.
But it's better than the train that California is sinking a few billion in. You know, the train that supposedly is to help non-rich people get from point A to point B.
He is a smart business guy and he is making cool shit. He isn't Tesla, or Bell. He might be Edisonish accept he hasn't come up with any of his companies on his own. At least edison invented some stuff himself. Elon is more a Elison. Pretty freaking smart guy by no means the smartest. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P [wikipedia.org]...
And of course, since he hasn't done this all by himself, that means he did it for the r
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Home Computers were never considered playthings for the rich. They were playthings for the nerds. In the 70's that didn't make one rich.
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Agreed.
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well just about anyone educated would work equally as well.
I mean, he couldn't even futurisize how fast his models can be produced despite having all the data.
and well if he could colonize mars he could do a sustainable closed ecology on earth much easier than that. COLONIZE ANTARCTICA!!!!!!!! like, much ado about nothing.
Re: Propheteering (Score:5, Insightful)
"Expert" predictions are notoriously wrong
The purpose of his book is to change the future, not predict it. I is about what should be, rather than what will be.
Re: Propheteering (Score:5, Informative)
>If Musk made the prediction that the future is going to be a low energy future with less material wealth than your parents, would you defend him as much?
Well, those are kind of the options, aren't they? Either we go to space, or we are forever limited by the resources available on Earth. The limits which all rational predictions say are going to starting to hit hard over the the next century. Granted, if we get off fossil fuels we can increase total energy consumption by at least an order of magnitude or two before waste heat starts causing comparable problems - but when it comes to raw resources, mining space is likely to be considerably easier than mining the Earth's mantle.
And then there's the pesky fact that space-based solar is the only long-term viable technology for achieving that kind of energy consumption without doing massive environmental damage - sucking that much energy from the winds or tides would almost certainly wreak havoc, and it would completely consume estimated total (not just discovered) fission and fusion ore reserves within only a few centuries. And you can't very well do ground-based solar on that scale, not unless you want to encase the entire planet in solar panels. And building space-based solar farms economically will require either fundamentally new surface-to-orbit technologies, or a viable space infrastructure. Sure, it's a very long-term plan, but our species has reached the point where we really need to start planning beyond our own lifetimes if we want to survive - just look at the problems our short-sightedness is already creating.
The real lunacy is to think that we can sustain a perpetual-growth based economy within a fishbowl. It worked for a couple centuries, but we're pushing up against the glass now, doing serious long-term environmental damage for the sake of a few more resources. Going to space will at least open the door to a few more centuries of "sustainable" growth before we reach the limits of the solar system, maybe as much as a several millenia depending on growth rate and whether we find that the Oort cloud is conductive to harvesting.
There's certainly an argument to be made that we need to get off the "sustainable growth" delusion that has infected our species, but personally I'd like to see the door opened to continuing it for a while without destroying our planet - just in case we can't cure ourselves overnight.
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Even if Mars could be colonized, only a few rich people will be able to afford to make the trip, so it's not going to do anything to fix the "fishbowl problem".
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The actual energy to reach Earth orbit, at retail electric rates, is about what Walmart sells bags of potatoes for. It costs way more than that because we basically are using weapons of war (rockets descended from ballistic missiles) to do the job. The cost of a ballistic ICBM is limited by the value of the targets it destroys, so cost was not seriously limited.
As soon as billionaires rather than governments got involved, where cost came out of their own pocket, sanity began to reign. Carrier airplanes t
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we are looking at $400K per person
In other words: even with insane cost reduction, only rich people can afford to make a trip to a location that would make the Sahara desert look like a luxury resort.
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You're basically on target, but check your payload size there partner. Low Earth orbit has a specific orbital energy of about -30MJ/kg, as compared to -63MJ/kg for something standing on the surface of the Earth, that's a 33MJ/kg investment just to reach LEO.
(33MJ/kg) * (0.28kWh/MJ) * ($0.15/kWh) * (100kg passenger + luggage) = $137
That's an awfully expensive bag of potatoes, and that's the absolute theoretical minimum expense assuming you're launched naked into LEO from a magical ground-level catapult and
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He's not fundamentally wrong, just overly optimistic. $1000 worth of energy is still a pretty small price to pay, especially when you consider the technology to start achieving such efficiencies was proposed back in the... 50's? Earlier? The infrastructure would be expensive, but there are several options within the range of current technology.
We solve similarly challenging engineering problems all the time, all that is lacking is the motivation to do such a thing. It's a chicken-and-egg problem: having
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Sure, Mars itself is an extremely long-term investment; however, and this is the important bit, it is by far the easiest off-Earth location to colonize and develop the basic technology and know-how that could then be refined to work in more hostile locations. Lots of water, CO2, and sand to provide an immensity of raw materials to work through the inefficiencies in early production techniques, and none of the hideously abrasive un-weathered dust to deal with like you have on the moon. Then, once the basic
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I suspect we'll see a system not unlike the indentured servitude that gave so many poor Europeans the opportunity to travel to the Americas back when crossing oceans was a ridiculous expense.
Travel to the Americas was much cheaper than a trip to Mars will ever be, and still only a few percent of Europeans made the trip.
Lots of water, CO2, and sand to provide an immensity of raw materials
Less water and CO2 than on Earth. And the sand isn't a good source of high grade ores. Also, no useful atmosphere and no magnetic field to protect against the Sun's hard radiation, and too far from the Sun to get good light and heat. And it's a small planet too. Only a quarter of the Earth's surface area. You could put more people on floating rafts on the ocean than you can put o
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Well, like I said, in the short term the value of a Mars colony is more of a technological testbed. We'll still need to continue bringing population growth rates down to zero, emigration has never been a realistic option for population density problems. As for the size and radiation - both problems are solved by building down, Mars has a much thicker and more stable crust. And yes, less water than on Earth, at least on the surface (who knows what might be deep underground), but I was really thinking just
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Mars is actually close to the same size as the Earths dry land area. Solar insolation is about 40% of the Earth with less cloud cover and generally clearer skies. The atmosphere is very thin but not totally useless, it can be mined, it allows some erosion so dust particles are at least rounded, thick enough to stop vacuum welding and possibly can support flight. The wet past may have concentrated minerals much as on Earth though that's just a guess at this time.
The big problems are distance and radiation. P
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Okay, fair enough. I was thinking of boron and other aneutronic fuels - the sort of stuff that doesn't produce gobs of neutron-activated waste that we then have to deal with. Most fusion produces far more high-energy neutrons per watt than any form of fission.
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Two points.
Population growth stops as soon as people, especially women, are educated and wealthy enough to be secure. This has happened in most of the developed world.
The problem is that our economic system depends on endless growth so population growth stopping is frowned on.
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"accomplishments"??? He was at the right time at the right place.
and he made the right decisions, and they led to things we like. why should we not be happy?
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"accomplishments"??? He was at the right time at the right place
Most of us have good ideas from time to time, and frequently at a time when conditions are favourable. What matters is what you do with that opportunity. First you have to recognize that the time and market are right for your idea, or you have to be willing to take a gamble on that. Next you need to organize capital and people to make it happen. That is where the accomplishment is.
Successful Risk Taker (Score:5, Insightful)
NO, he had the insight, and much more importantly, he took the risk and made things happen. It's the right time and the right place only in hindsight.
Keep bitching and moaning about others' success from the comfort of your couch, while the risk takers out there continue to do big and great things.
Let them dream. (Score:2, Insightful)
Psilocybin is a hell of a drug.
Whatever you think of Elon Musk, at least he's not using his brain, money and industrial magic for developing new super-weapons. I don't think.
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You must have missed his last book "How to secretly take over the world with the world's elite 1%" by Elon Musk
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I think perhaps his memory might be going though. The book has already been written [wikipedia.org].
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That is way than enough for some of us.
More vaporware announcements? (Score:5, Insightful)
Can't we wait for the actual book to be written, published, and reviewed by one of ours — instead of seeing more vaporware appear on the /. front-page?
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Elon Musk fumes are considered a delicacy here.
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To Kill An Egotrip (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: To Kill An Egotrip (Score:5, Interesting)
Re: To Kill An Egotrip (Score:5, Insightful)
No. Like any CEO he became an expert in finding people who are experts in all those things.
Really? (Score:2)
And that is in spite of what others in the company claim?
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That, is actually no small feat. Look around at his major competitors, and tell me which ones you think are cutting edge based on the vision of their CEO. Having the ability to gather great minds, and get them to actually work together is an art in itself. He doesn't need to know everything about each individual field but he does have to understand enough to figure out who is on the ball and who isn't. What ideas he should invest in and when to cut his losses.
There are a lot of executives out there th
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You're right, it's not a small feat and it's not easy to do. At least, not successfully. I'm all for crediting a CEO who has offered strong leadership and direction to a company as Elon has. On the other hand, it seems like a lot of people are under the impression that the CEO does everything. That the CEO must know everything. That simply isn't true.
When I CEO credits his employees for amazing work we're all better for it. When he takes credit for the work of others we're all diminished by it.
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Precisely this - and then he went one step beyond with a carefully tailored PR campaign to the public the impression that *he* is the expert on all these things.
So probably the book will be ghostwritten.
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Elon Musk is not an expert, except perhaps at being at the right place/right time. He won the internet lottery:
internet banking
and sinks the windfall resources into unprofitable [fool.com] geek hobbies:
solar panel installation, electric cars, launch systems, or satellites
Good for him. I share his enthusiasm. But don't confuse lucky celebrities for experts.
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Re:Gullible people (Score:4, Interesting)
1) You are so scared of the guy that you do not show your login.
2) Here is a guy that has been critical to 5 companies being successful, but he is a PR firm.
3) how many entrepreneurs have 5 of 5 companies be successes?
4) how many entrepeneurs can you list that were critical in changing society in 3 companies, let alone 4?
So, why are you so afraid to face facts? Why are you so afraid to show who you are? My guess is that you are simply another troll that is paid to lie here.
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I generally agree with you. However, with :
3) how many entrepreneurs have 5 of 5 companies be successes?
If we guess at 1 in 5 companies being successful, then having 5/5 is about 1/3000. There are way, way more than 3000 entrepreneurs in the world. Just by chance there will be many successful people in the world, and past performance is obviously not a good indicator of future performance, using chance.
I'm not saying Elon Musk isn't talented, just that with an entirely random distribution you will get
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What I never read are books written by people who think that success in one field gives them magic insight into fields not their own.
Musk has had a revolutionary impact on far more than one field. I can think of five: Online finances (Paypal), electric cars (Tesla), space technology (SpaceX), solar energy (SolarCity), and battery tech (GigaFactory).
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Pfft! He's a salesman, with a catchy name
Online finances (Western Union), electric cars (Thomas Parker), space technology (Goddard), solar energy (Russell Ohl), and battery tech (Gaston Planté, Camille Alphonse Faure).
And notice these guys did real grunt work, out in snow [hswstatic.com].
Re:To Kill An Egotrip (Score:4, Interesting)
I believe SpaceX is at least approaching economic sustainability, and is one of the cheapest launch options even without the re-usability which promises to drop costs dramatically. And I thought the GigaFactory was already in the early construction stages. That makes both more than a pipe dream, perhaps you're thinking of the Hyperloop? Ba-dum-tsch.
Meanwhile, Paypal may be despised for it's capriciousness, but it managed to take the world by storm for a while and set the stage for many copycats.
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No, it's not. Check your definition:
pipe dream
noun: an unattainable or fanciful hope or scheme.
Also, people are already buying tickets on SpaceX - granted for now they're for satellites and cargo rather than passengers, but that will continue to be the primary payload for all launches for probably at least the next century or five, so I'd hardly consider that a damning stateent. Besides which, the only real objection to them carrying people is that they don't yet have a proven track record - something they
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So who we can trust to be an Mars colonization expert since no one actually have done it yet? Let's judge the ideas on their own merit, even if they might be a stretch from what we might be able to accomplish with them
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I love reading books written by experts in their field about their field.
Which is why I'm waiting for Mr. Musk's book on trophy wives!
I was going to say the .... (Score:1)
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That's kinda backwards. How about charging the batteries during the day with solar and using the electric company as standby?
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If every home and business had a battery system capable of delivering 24 hours of average load, we could switch to 100% renewable energy sources virtually overnight. (It would still take several years, even under ideal conditions, I know.) I'd venture to say that enabling such a transition is Elon's primary impetus for bringing the "home battery" to market.
I'm just spitballin' here, but I bet they'll figure some way to integrate the battery pack with a solar installation in such a way as to satisfy the grid
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Sycophants and experts. Don't forget the actual experts, those are important - anyone of decent intelligence can have insight into lots of disparate areas if they have an army of experts to consult - it's just that so few people have both the means and the will to support such an army.
Just imagine what you could accomplish if you could pass off every passing fancy to a handful of engineers who would assess it's viability and start working out the details of possible implementations.
Endeavours are things you've *done*,not thought up (Score:1)
His more earthly endeavors have included electric cars, home solar power
Okay, so far so good.
a transportation system called the Hyperloop
If we're allowed to count things we haven't actually yet done among our endeavours, I need to rewrite my CV.
a space based Internet
That... doesn't sound very earthly.
and, most recently, a battery that can power a house.
That's another thing that's only been announced.
The Road Ahead (Score:2)
Sustainability? (Score:1)
Asked and answered [ucsd.edu]... Present growth rates give us about 450 years at best before we boil all the water off.
Mars Colonization?
Please! Stop with this obsession. Do the moon first.
Planets are gravity traps. One prison for another (Score:2)
It would be a mistake to leave, at great expense, a gigantic gravity trap like ours just to fall down yet another on another planet. Free Earth or solar orbit, or libration points among the planets, are the place to colonize.
Mars has limited room. Population growth would cover it in less than two centuries, not to mention suburbia syndrome, which would have the first settlers become real estate moguls selling to wealthy later arrivals who each want to buy ten thousand hectares of Martian land to build the e
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Free orbital spaces - rotating terraria - could be built out of asteroidal or lunar material
Too expensive. When faced with resource struggles due to overpopulation, people aren't going to build rockets. They'll just kill each other.
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Given another option - leaving - human behavior changes. The Americas performed that function for Europe once, and now we need new Americas. Some will fight for the same old reasons - property owners, mostly - but the usual crew of poor and crazy and criminal will leap at the chance to start over. And the people in the sky will quickly outnumber the people on Earth.
The idea isn't to move people off-planet to ease population crowding, anyway. We can't ship enough - they are born faster than that. The need is
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With proper tech, the penalty for Mar's gravity well can be made pretty small. For example, one of the giant volcanoes on Mars sits right on the equator. It is so tall that the top is essentially in vacuum. So you can build an accelerator that throws things into Mars orbit. From low Mars orbit to Phobos you can use the Rotovator type space elevator.
Mars has advantages that loose asteroid's don't. Tectonics, internal heating, water, and other geological processes have sorted the planet into differentiat
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Hm, indeed. But Mars will be a consumer of resources as far as the Earth is concerned, as it will not return energy or materials to the home world. It provides adventure and a limited amount of room for the fortunate; it can't ship back things we need, AKA power from powersats, or metals, or even habitats for animals that will be wiped out soon enough. As a side note, it would also consume our best and brightest, so the net effect for Earth would be negative again. Yep, we can do both - but Elon Musk is a M
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Sorry about the dupe. Pasted too much below the break, didn't see it.
I hope the forward is by ... (Score:2)
... Sarah Palin.
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... Sarah Palin.
but I can see Mars from my house!
Venus (Score:1)
Red Mars (Score:2)
Mars colonization in book form.
After reading KS Robinson's Mars Trilogy (Red Mars, Green Mars, Blue Mars) I just don't know if anything except the real thing will be worth reading
The appendices of Mars Trilogy have actual fictional research papers...it's pretty detailed.
The science hasn't changed that much, and he explores all different kinds of colonization approaches and technical solutions.
From a practical standpoint, i guess a technical description of actual robots we could make and use with existing technology would be an interestin
Got it covered... 50 Billion Sustainable Souls (Score:2)
I've got this covered. We'll have population increases over the next century up to the point of a sustainable level at 50 Billion. This will allow one quarter of the earth's land area to be set aside as natural parks areas, move people out of the urban areas and back to the land, get almost everyone involved at least to some degree with producing at least 10% of their own food, improve health and education all while lowering consumption by 90%.
Celebrity 'get me out of here'? (Score:2)
Yet another variations on 'As I Walked Amongst The Fluff of my Navel One Sunny Spring Morning'? Somehow, people who are succesful in business always want to leave a legacy, but unfortunately, all they seem to able to manage is this kind of vanity publications. Most of them seem to tell us that "I struggled in the beginning, but then I got lucky and now I feel I'm better than other people." The difference between the "successful business leader" is not that they somehow possess better abilities; they just go
Re: If I were Musk (Score:3)
As to China, that was a horrible mistake for him. The only way that they will buy is if he moves manufacturing there.