Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

Taco Cowboy sends this report from Vox: One of the big mysteries in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa is where the virus came from in the first place — and whether it's changed in any significant ways. ... In a new paper in Science (abstract), researchers reveal that they have sequenced the genomes of Ebola from 78 patients in Sierra Leone who contracted the disease in May and June. Those sequences revealed some 300 mutations specific to this outbreak. Among their findings, the researchers discovered that the current viral strains come from a related strain that left Central Africa within the past ten years. ... Using genetic sequences from current and previous outbreaks, the researchers mapped out a family tree that puts a common ancestor of the recent West African outbreak some place in Central Africa roughly around 2004. This contradicts an earlier hypothesis that the virus had been hanging around West Africa for much longer than that. Researchers are also planning to study the mutations to see if any of them are affecting Ebola's recent behavior. For example, this outbreak has had a higher transmission rate and lower death rate than others, and researchers are curious if any of these mutations are related to that. ... The scientific paper on Ebola is also a sad reminder of the toll that the virus has taken on those working on the front lines. Five of the authors died of Ebola before it was published.

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[wolrahnaes]

If you wait long enough the mortality rate goes to 100%.

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[sribe]

Trying to figure out the mortality rate for a virus that's still making it's rounds seems premature.

Especially when the reaction of many who are exposed is to run, and hide from medical treatment...

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[Anonymous Coward]

If this epidemic gets really bad, the social and economic consequences can kill a lot of people who don't even get the disease.

Re:death rate could be higher in the end

[Roceh]

It could be the mortality rate for Ebola has been overestimated in any case, mild cases may not be recorded at all - there is something of a stigma with Ebola. The most recent case with the Nigerian diplomat who skipped quarantine and holed up in a hotel and then recovered after a few days indicates there are some who get mild symptoms (and are still infectious however - see Port Harcourt outbreak).

Dangerous virus

[Eravnrekaree]

The fact that so many experts on the disease die of it is a testament to its extreme contagiousness, and why we really should be scared of this thing. Of all people, experts of the disease take precautions to avoid catching it themselves, when they do, its not a good sign. It only makes sense to put into place travel bans from infected countries. It is important when dealing with this diseases to stop the spread by banning travel from the hot zone. There also needs to be public funding for a vaccine.

Re:Dangerous virus

[ultranova]

Of all people, experts of the disease take precautions to avoid catching it themselves, when they do, its not a good sign.

Maybe. Then again, where I work it's the new guys who follow safety guidelines religiously, while those who have been there for a while can't be bothered because, after all, nothing's happened this far so it must be safe.

Experts are humans, and humans are notoriously bad at keeping their guard up with familiar things.

Re:Dangerous virus

[Electricity Likes Me]

despite the fact flu is a much more common (and less "scary") disease.

Flu is killing 200.000 to 500.000 people globally every year.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre... [who.int]

Dying the flu generally requires complicating conditions. Most people survive it just fine. Ebola is scary because most people don't survive it.