Global-Warming Skepticism Hits 6-Year High 846
Hugh Pickens DOT Com writes "Chris Mooney writes at Mother Jones that a new study, from the Yale and George Mason University research teams on climate change communication, shows a 7-percentage-point increase in the proportion of Americans who say they do not believe that global warming is happening. And that's just since the spring of 2013. The number of deniers is now 23 percent; back at the start of last year, it was 16 percent (PDF). The obvious question is, what happened over the last year to produce more climate denial? The answer may lie in the so-called global warming "pause"—the misleading idea that global warming has slowed down or stopped over the the past 15 years or so. This claim was used by climate skeptics, to great effect, in their quest to undermine the release of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report in September 2013—precisely during the time period that is in question in the latest study. "The notion of a global warming "pause" is, at best, the result of statistical cherry-picking," writes Mooney. " It relies on starting with a very hot year (1998) and then examining a relatively short time period (say, 15 years), to suggest that global warming has slowed down or stopped during this particular stretch of time." Put these numbers back into a broader context and the overall warming trend remains clear. "If you shift just 2 years earlier, so use 1996-2010 instead of 1998-2012, the trend is 0.14 C per decade, so slightly greater than the long-term trend," explains Drew Shindell, a climate scientist at NASA who was heavily involved in producing the IPCC report. This is why climate scientists generally don't seize on 15 year periods and make a big thing about them. "Journalists take heed: Your coverage has consequences. All those media outlets who trumpeted the global warming "pause" may now be partly responsible for a documented decrease in Americans' scientific understanding.""
Re:Show me a climate model for the past 16 years (Score:1, Interesting)
The best models that they have are ones that have as part of them global warming. Can you point us at other models that have produced better predictions ?
No, I thought not ... so let us go with the best models that we have, even if they do have flaws.
Here's someone's model that is beating the prediction of all the pro's:
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2013/09/update-on-my-climate-model-spoiler-its-doing-a-lot-better-than-the-pros.html [climate-skeptic.com]
Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Which shows that people don't understand (Score:5, Interesting)
A - there is not enough data or data has been cherry picked to push an agenda
B - there is change and it is natural, who do we think we are to believe we have as much power to actually change the climate or
C - The costs to "stop" if thats even possible climate change is far greater than we are willing to spend.
As an excuse (Score:4, Interesting)
I think americans have it pretty difficult. ... I simplified) El Ninjo and Al Ninja phenomens. Both phenomens my "sleep" for half a decade or longer and suddenly increase in strength (completely unrelated to the CO2 trend or any other trend).
Media works very differnt than in the rest of the world. There are much to many lobbies tying to "build opinions" in public.
AND: the country is simply huge. You will always have a few areas in your country which is hit by global warming a bit more server and lots of areas where you don't really feel it.
I guess in the "desert" states you don't really feel a difference. It might be slightly warmer over day than lets say 25 years ago, but well: it is just hot and dry, so what? And at night it is pretty cold, as always: so what?
The west coast is dominated by a cold stream comming from the south, the effect of that stream is surely 50 times stronger than the current effects of CO2.
The center of north america (both USA and Canada) is classic example for "continental climate". That means: regardless how hot the summers are: in winter it is damned cold! That means even if it is warmer on average, there will be an extreme winter every few years, depending how the jet stream situation over/around the north pole is.
On top of that we have alternating (does not really alternate
For some reason I never digged into the east cost is in winter pretty cold (considering that New York is on the same latitude as Rome - Italy) Colder than the equivalent latitude cities one the west. So New York has every few years a super Blizzard.
OTOH:
o In Australia we have every year a new summer heat record.
o In Europe not so much, but we have much more rain the last 5 - 10 years in summer.
o In Europe the winters are absurd warm, with a few exceptions which had a bit more snow (but where still to warm in comparision of 30 years ago)
o In Europe we have an increase of autumn and winter storms, this winter already 3 big ones (winter is just 4 weeks old, mind you)
Re:Science is not popularism every time (Score:2, Interesting)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists%27_views_on_climate_change
Here's a list of MANY studies with varying results... ALL of which denote that the MAJORITY, often a VAST majority, realize the truth - man's emissions have an impact and it IS SIGNIFICANT.
Don't be scared of science Republican America, embrace it and use that as the unlocking tool to ALL of your fallacies, economic, social, and personal.
Re:Show me a climate model for the past 16 years (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Which shows that people don't understand (Score:3, Interesting)
Interesting quote regarding California rainfall from one of your search results. [ametsoc.org]
"Results show that mean regionwide precipitation during the last 100 yr has been unusually high and less variable compared to other periods in the past."
So, is what we're presently experiencing an unusually dry period brought on by climate change, or just a return to historically normal conditions?
Re:Which shows that people don't understand (Score:5, Interesting)
Most Americans cant tell you how many states we have, and they will gladly sign a petition to ban the use of H2O, So please do not judge global IQ based on the land of morons I live in.
I think we're a good stand in for global ignorance. Where we stand out is willful ignorance/ideologically motivated cognition in otherwise educated and numerate people. If you want to see an educated conservative republican lie about the answer to or subconsciously misunderstand a simple math problem, just phrase it as a gun control question. Figure 7:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2319992 [ssrn.com]
Re:Show me a climate model for the past 16 years (Score:2, Interesting)
"Unfortunately what you link is not a model, but 4 diagrams and a bit of text."
A model is a model is a model. It can be based on supercomputer number crunching, or based on the dessication rate of Play-Doh.
In science, the value of a theory is its predictive ability. I don't give a damn if somebody's model is based on which way the dog was facing when it was peeing... the theory that predicts better is the better theory. That's the way science works. Anything else is noise.
The fact is that the vast majority of CO2-based climate models have been downright terrible at predicting anything so far. I'm not saying this guy's model is any better, but it appears to be no worse.