European Health Levels Suddenly Collapsed After 2003 and Nobody Is Sure Why 304
KentuckyFC writes "Europeans are living longer. But since 2003, they've suddenly enjoyed fewer years of healthy life. For example, in Italy between 1995 and 2003, life expectancy increased from 75 to 80.1 for men and from 81.8 to 85.3 for women. At the same time, the number of years of healthy life increased from 66.7 to 70.9 for men and from 70 to 74.4 for women. But since 2003, while life expectancy has increased further, the number of years of healthy living has plummeted to about 62 for both sexes. More worrying still is that demographers say the same trend has been repeated right across Europe. Only the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands appear to have escaped. That raises an obvious question: what happened in 2003? One idea is that the weather is to blame. In 2003, Europe experienced an extreme heat wave that led to some 80,000 extra deaths across the region. And the higher temperatures could also have triggered ill health, particularly in older people suffering from chronic diseases such as diabetes. That has important implications for governments who have to pay for health costs in Europe. And it raises the possibility that climate change is already having a bigger impact on human health than anyone imagined."
Alternative Theory (Score:1, Insightful)
See, I can speculate wildly too!
Are they fatter? (Score:5, Insightful)
My guess would be that they are just following America's lead and are becoming fatter.
The article even says:
And yet this increasing lifespan masks a dark secret. Many developed countries are suffering an epidemic of chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease thanks to poor diets and sedentary lifestyles. The numbers are such that they must inevitably influence the health of nations as a whole but by how much?
Then the authors go on to blame it on the weather.
Do some more studying (Score:5, Insightful)
Don't Worry, Be Happy...Live Longer (Score:5, Insightful)
How about the austerity measures, put into place across Europe. Perhaps the stress countries are coming under is spreading to peoples health to the point were it is a negative response. Happy people live longer and in many EU countries, people are not happy.
Heat wave discouraged exercise? (Score:4, Insightful)
Screw it. It's too hot to go outside we'll stay inside and eat. I know that most older people that I know start going downhill quickly when they stop moving.
Actually a recent issue? (Score:4, Insightful)
Maybe the line is moving (Score:5, Insightful)
We've had winters for decades, son. (Score:1, Insightful)
Millions of years. Actually, billions of them.
So since that hasn't changed much, this "winter season" thingy you're proposing, I suspect it isn't the cause here.
And the heatwaves and deaths of 80,000 people isn't "speculate[ing] wildly" you misanthropic piece of shit.
Try again, sonny.
Re:electonic pollution (Score:5, Insightful)
More and more of electronic pollution? Mire wifi usage, more cellphones + more upper gigahertz traffic (G2, G3, G4)?
Imbalanced chakras? Cold and squared audio output from transistor amps? The decline of the department store?
Badly written and unpublished (Score:4, Insightful)
This paper is in its infancy. It is somewhat garbled, the methods don't really specify the methods.
The methods are basically "we graphed mortality over time". But you can't really criticize it much,
because it is not published, and probably not submitted yet. The only question is why did it get to slashdot?
The most likely explanation for the effect at this stage is some kind of error. Either in the calculation,
or as the authors point out, in the wording of the questions (which probably would be a good idea to
test before this paper is published ?)
"Standardized translations of the questionnaire have been used; nevertheless it is likely that linguistic or cultural differences, as well as changes in the wording of questions, have influenced the way the respondents indicate a longstanding health problem or disability and their way of communicating the types of restrictions caused by this problem"
Or, in the population measured (migration from East-Block countries?) or many other possible problems.
All these I'd bet much higher chances than a real health effect.
Comment removed (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:4, Insightful)
I don't know why the jump to a conclusion about the weather, or why the assumption that the catalyst must have necessarily occurred precisely in 2003. I would put my money on this being an issue with diet. Monsanto's MON 810 strain of corn was approved for growing in the EU in 1998, for example. It's probably more likely that they are adopting a western diet though, which tends to make people unhealthy [forksoverknives.com].
Re:Except No European Country Has Actual Austerity (Score:4, Insightful)
Really well!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1864111-the-post-crisis-facts-are-in-and-theyre-not-kind-to-keynesian-thinking [seekingalpha.com]
Re:Do some more studying (Score:5, Insightful)
I doubt this has a single factor, but it may be that the current cohort of old people had some disadvantage while young that the previous generation did not.
But for the life of me I can't think of a major event that happened right across Europe in the 1930's and 1940s' that might explain it. Oh wait...
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Are they fatter? (Score:4, Insightful)
That sounds reasonable, but it doesn't explain why the European nation with the biggest weight problem (UK) seems unaffected.
Re:Facebook (Score:5, Insightful)
Even if it doesn't work out, it's worth trying.
Re:Needs more study obviously (Score:3, Insightful)
If any for-profit hospital tried that approach, the libertarian solution of "Then you can sue them" would prevent it from going on too long. Certainly not for the whole summer.
Libertarians believe you should be able to sue people for choosing to take vacation instead of providing you services? A private hospital wouldn't have the freedom to sell its services howsoever it chose, including saying "sorry, we're on vacation, come back next month"? What's the Libertarian ground for a lawsuit against someone who says "wow, there are suddenly lots of customers desperate for my product, I can raise prices to maximize profits"? Isn't that how the "free market" is supposed to work, regardless of whether it murders people unable to pay prices set at the profit-maximizing point?
Wow, maybe Libertarians less ideologically inflexible than I thought --- they think you should be able to sue to prevent free market pricing from causing harm, imposing non-market-based government controls to avert socially harmful market failures. Mandating price and production levels to best serve the public good, rather than allowing private providers to set their own policies according to profit maximization (or vacation time desires): how very Libertarian?!?!
Government paying what? (Score:4, Insightful)
That has important implications for governments who have to pay for health costs in Europe.
Government does not pay health costs. Citizen do through taxes, or insured people do through fees.