World Population Could Reach Nearly 11 Billion By 2100 322
vinces99 writes "A new analysis shows that world population could reach nearly 11 billion by the end of this century, according to a United Nations report issued June 13. That's about 800 million, or about 8 percent, more than the previous projection issued in 2011. The change is largely because birth rates in Africa have not declined as quickly as had been expected, according to Adrian Raftery of the University of Washington's Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences. The U.N. estimates use statistical methods developed at the center. The current African population is about 1.1 billion and it is now expected to reach 4.2 billion, nearly a fourfold increase, by 2100, Raftery said."
Re:What?!? (Score:5, Informative)
http://www.businessinsider.com/analyst-world-population-will-peak-at-85-billion-in-2030-2012-11 [businessinsider.com]
Even as population trends, this 11 billion by end of century figure is not believable. We can't predict the weather or climate change, but we can easily predict population growth and the African population growth angle is absolutely not justified in a non-speculative sociology realm.
Re:30-Year Projections Are Useless (Score:5, Informative)
Actually 30 year projections when it comes to population are pretty accurate as the people who will be having children in thirty years are already born and hence their number is exact, all that is missing is the reproduction rate, which moves slowly.
This is a common mistake by people who are not familiar with population projections. Thirty year time spans are "short" when it comes to population whereas they are absurdly long for almost anything else.
Re:Won't happen (Score:5, Informative)
Water is a bit more of a concern.
At current growth rates, the weight of humans would equal the weight of the planet in 500 years.
At current energy growth rates since the 1600's, the earth will be hotter than boiling water in under 400 years.
Clearly something has to give.
So less energy per person- lower quality of life- less water per person.
Deer do just fine until they wipe out their environment and die off. No war needed.
When population density is high enough, minor disruptions in food and water delivery, or a disease can kill a lot of people really fast.
Typical bad plague single pass would kill about 140 million people now. That's just 2%.
Re:What?!? (Score:2, Informative)
Turn in your nerd card. The film Soylent Green is based on the novel Make Room, Make Room!
Re:30-Year Projections Are Useless (Score:5, Informative)
That assumes there are no epidemics, wars, economic depressions, or other fluctuations.
No, it doesn't. All those have a modest impact on the combined population of the world. I.e. save a global pandemic or thermo-nuclear world war III, those figures will come to pass.
we could easily have another 1918 flu
Easily as in "it hasn't happened in 100 years and the probability is now ever lower with all the latest medical advances"
or world war which kills 10%+ of the population.
WWII, the deadliest global war ever killed 2.5% of the population.